Houston Marathon forecast: 8 days to go, strength of front remains uncertain

Whereas they were once consistent, the global forecast models are all over the place in terms of temperatures for the morning of Sunday, Jan. 17th. They range from the mid-20s (Canadian) to low-50s (GFS) in terms of the temperature at start time.

This tells us the models are still having a difficult time handling the timing and intensity of a cold front that will probably arrive shortly before the marathon. In looking at the best forecast model, the European, it calls for temperatures in the upper 30s. However the ensemble members predict a very broad range of temperatures from the low 20s to upper 50s. The highest confidence range is from 32 to 45 degrees.

What does all this mean? Simply this. Until the forecast models get a better handle on the timing of the front, which may not happen for several more days, the outlook for the marathon will remain uncertain. We can also say there is a non-trivial chance that we will see very cold conditions in the mid-30s, or lower, on the morning of the marathon. However the most likely outlook is still around 40 degrees.

Here, then, is my latest forecast for conditions on the starting line of the 2016 Houston Marathon.

Temperature

Race-time temperatures will be near normal (low- to mid-40s), or below normal (30s).

Confidence: Medium

Precipitation

If a cold front passes through on the Friday or Saturday before the Houston Marathon, conditions for the race should be dry. Still eight days out is a long way to go.

Confidence: Low-Medium

Winds

It is difficult to make any predictions about winds at nine days out, but right now I’d anticipate moderate winds, which would still make a cold morning very cold.

Confidence: Low

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