A cold front will slowly move through Houston today, but the cruel reality of this in August is that drier air generally just means warmer days as high pressure builds in behind the front. And that’s just what we’ll see. At the end of today’s post we’ll also take a look at our forecast for Harvey a year ago, when the system still had not formally re-developed into a tropical storm, but clearly had become a rainfall threat.
Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday
With high pressure over head, slightly drier air, and mostly sunny skies the Houston region will see ideal conditions for daytime heat to end this work week. Expect high temperatures of around 100 degrees, give or take, with overnight lows in the upper 70s. This is classic August heat.
Saturday and Sunday
By later Friday or Saturday morning, the high pressure should have moved sufficiently off to the northeast to allow more moisture to move in from the Gulf of Mexico. The net effect of this will be to bring some clouds into the region and bring temperatures down into the mid-90s. We’ll also see some isolated to scattered showers, most likely during the afternoon as the sea breeze moves inland. 
Next week
This pattern probably will persist, with high temperatures likely falling into the 90 to 95 degree range toward the end of August, with decent rain chances. I would guess, but not guarantee, that the coming three day stretch represents the last, super-hot, hundred-degree weather of 2018. Fall is not yet here, but if you squint, you can see it in the distance.
Harvey redux
A year ago today we were starting to recognize the threat of Hurricane Harvey. While the storm had not yet reformed, forecast models strongly suggested it would become a tropical storm, and probably a hurricane again. More concerning, the European model began to indicate that once Harvey moved inland, it would stall, setting up a scenario in which some parts of Texas would face heavy rains. The following post was published at 1:25pm CT on August 22, when the 12z version of the European model was released. At that point, on Tuesday afternoon, we were officially concerned.
I distinctly remember writing that it would be “irresponsible” to compare Harvey to Allison, because Tropical Storm Allison had been such a reference event for the Houston region in 2001. The official report from FEMA and Harris County had labeled the rainfall from Allison as “Off the Charts.” For long time residents, the mere mention of Allison struck fear in our hearts. It wasn’t until the very, very heavy rains reached Houston on Saturday night that I realized that Harvey wouldn’t be as bad as Allison, or another Allison, but worse. Indeed, it ended up being much, much worse. Technically, then, I was right that it would be “irresponsible” to compare Allison to Harvey, but for very wrong reasons!
I had kept a wary eye on Harvey ever since he originally formed, and not surprised that he represented a potential threat to someone in the Western Gulf. For these purposes, I consider the Western Gulf to be everywhere West of the mouth of the Mississippi. My concern really struck on the 23rd. I had been paying more attention to track and intensity guidance, and it was only then that I saw the rainfall projections, which were already 30″ in some of the models. I couldn’t believe it, but the signal was strong enough to warrant the concern
Eric, you did your absolute best and then some. Your team was incredible. This was a new “off the charts” for many people. Personally, I am well past beginning to think that these are not 100-, 500- or 1,000- year events. The park staff at Stephen F Austin mentioned just before Harvey that they had flooded in the Brazos basin more than 4 times, which set back park use each time. Harvey was just the next flood.
My family does a lot of “prepping” for crisis, hurricanes, emergencies on the road, job loss, you name it. Hurricane Ike was harder on us than Harvey. A Norther hit a day or two after that and the debris alone allowed our neighborhood to floo worse than it had in Allison. The look in neighbors’ eyes was not a good one. Everyone banded together quite a bit but so many were unprepared.
I guess what I am getting at is that floods in this region are our “thing.” We get them more than hurricanes, earthquakes, tornadoes, etc… You’re talking to a girl who grew up in Oklahoma and spent many an hour in a tornado shelter.
I married into a family with a love of history and a river nearby, and as I have done more reading on the area I found a list of floods on those rivers (either from upstream, centrally locate rains, or downstream backups) and they were very common! One flood in 1913 (December) combined the basins of the Colorado and Brazos and the rivers became one, 65 miles across.
I also remember seeing a post after Harvey from Brazos Bend State Park that had seen an equivalent flood (within about an inch) back in the 90s.
For us, the question becomes not “will it flood” but “when will it flood, and what can I do to prepare.” For one, why are slab houses so valued in this region, and pier & beam looked down on at all? Realtors will tell you one is more stable and desireable… A builder will tell you the other is more expensive but easier to do repairs on AND lift off the ground.
Anyway, I hope some of this is a sober reminder that we cannot ever assume life is going to go our way or that the things we treasure are a flood away from being taken from us. We must be more generous toward our preparation and thought about the buildings we build and land we use. No one will take care of these things as well as I will, for myself.
Hoping to spread the awareness so that it happens less and less.
About foundations – easy. Slabs are much easier and cheaper for developers, builders, and contractors to build and dispose of. Common sense dictates that pier and beam foundations are much more suited to the climate, but the bottom line says slap the slabs up and let the buyer bear the long-term costs.
Amen to that!!! But sales techniques have brought it to a level of superiority in most minds! So sad!
I visit Brazos Bend State Park frequently, and I’m not sure that detail is correct. They had one flood even higher than Harvey, but it was in the 1920s. They do have flood levels posted on one of the observation towers, I think the recent ones were a good deal (~3 feet) lower than Harvey.
I double checked!! You can find the pic on FB if you search “Harvey plaque Brazos Bend State Park”!!
Like all of us who experienced it, I remember the Saturday the Harvey rains started. I’d been running errands all day and feeling a little cocky about not getting too wet. Ha! Friends and I were watching the Texans pre-season game on Saturday night and suddenly it sounded like the house was sitting under Niagara Falls. We all looked at each other. Without saying much everyone, all lifelong Houstonians, stood up and left. Good thing, too, because the path home was already flooding by the end of the game.
On a positive personal note, I’m happy to report I love the sound of rain again. I wasn’t sure that would happen!
Robin, that was me. We went out to eat early on Saturday evening; I did a lot of eye rolling and felt quite cocky as well. About five hours later, it was a different story. I will never ignore warnings like that again.
Same here, LOL! We had just had new french drains installed in our never-flooded back yard anyway, so just KNEW we were going to sleep well that Saturday night, right up until around 10:00 and the rain was apocalyptic. No water in our house, but our it required some very wet maintenance of our french drains and sleepless nights both Saturday and Sunday, not to mention the fact that we were stranded in our neighborhood until Tuesday afternoon.
I work as a Supply Chain Manager and have shipping lanes on rail from the gulf coast of Mexico to the US. As such, I keep a close eye on any developments which have the potential to interrupt rail traffic heading north. I remember reviewing the European model that morning and feeling physically ill, holding out hope that the forecast changes with updated runs. I sent the forecast from the model of the Friday 7pm windspeed map to management along with the link to your post saying that it was time we got ready for the rain.
In hindsight, clearly an understatement. Also, rightly or wrongly, it is this specific model run that has me trusting the ECMWF more than others (which, currently looks clean through the remainder of August).
I remember Wednesday was my freak out day. I had already grown into the pattern of reading your daily posts as I used to live in a neighborhood that can not even handle 6-8 inches of rain (let alone 15+ as mentioned in your post). I also remember seeing my first Amber light warning on Wed that said be “hurricane ready” and the radio was interviewing a meteorologist saying that Harvey was definitely coming but the rainfall amount was still unclear. I called my husband with a quivering voice and asked him what we should do and he said trust the Lord and don’t freak out which is the kind of advice that is both very helpful and very hard to hear. (He later went on to have his “freak out” on Friday and I got to give him back his sage advice).
Thanks for sticking by us day in and day out. Love this website.
I remember watching the news and seeing the entire area near 610 and 290 completely under water. I saw a refrigerator floating. My stomach sunk and panic set in. Fortunately, we escaped the water, but that feeling stuck with me and I got flood insurance this spring. I don’t want to feel like that ever again.
There was a lot of hype for this storm – grocery stores emptied and many places shut down.
On Saturday morning I distinctly remember many frustrated people complaining this was overhyped because, at that point, not much had happened. Little did they know it was just the calm before the storm.
10-15″ locally with 4-8″ wide spread? Just a little off…more like 50-60″ locally with 40″ widespread! I remember checking my rain gauge – 25″ the first night, then another 20″ over the next 3 days. It still just boggles the mind. I feel like I’ll be telling my great grandkids about this one day and they’re not going to believe me.
Harvey should be a stark reminder to everyone that meteorologists can’t predict with much meaningful precision what will happen in these storms and you need to figure out your own plan on what level of risk you are willing to accept.
After the drought of 2011, I thought I would never complain about the inconvenience of rain again. Then came Harvey. Our subdivision was untouched although we live across HWY 6 from Barker and 2 miles south of Buffalo Bayou. I know people who are still out of their homes.
What caused Harvey to move so slow and not go anywhere it seems for a number of days? My memory fails me on that point.
Thanks
Steering currents collapsed. IIRC, he got trapped between high-pressure ridges.
High pressure to the West and East and a stalled front to the North if I remember right
I know that no other weather site comes close to our beloved SCW for reasoned, data-driven predictions, but does anyone know of a semi-comparable website that covers Hawaiian weather? We have family there, and as Lane bears down, the more information the better….
I agree Laura! I’ve been watching Hawaii News Now live in the evening to get their forecast. I’m hoping the islands are spared!
@CivilDefenseHI though not strictly weather has been good version of our Harris County OEM. Been monitoring them for the Kilauea event.
Thank you both!
This year, I purchased flood insurance.
The wife said “If we didn’t flood during Harvey, we’re not going to ever flood.”
But she forgets how dicey it got on the Monday-Tuesday after landfall… had Harvey not moved off when it did, the Brazos might not have crested for another day, and our levee district might not have been able to keep
pumping into it.
Looking at how high our house is relative to the streets, it’s tough to imagine THAT much water getting up to it, even if the streets flood, but given all I’ve read about how Houston has overbuilt itself into floodplains, and paved over previously water-absorbing prairie, I think it’s safe to say no one knows how bad it can get. and that doesn’t even take into account warmer waters due to climate change exacerbating things further.
We have had flood insurance for years, but when it came up for renewal this year my husband said the same.
But the water came close enough, and I am lucky enough to be in the position to spend $450 a year for my own piece of mind. So renew we did.
After a strong surge of infill development had completed in our area, I bought flood insurance for the first time even though I ‘knew’ I was in a town that pretty much couldn’t flood. The neighborhood had changed and I figured the $450 was worth it.
We didn’t flood, not even close. I still renewed this year. Worst case scenario, other than ever having to make a claim, is that my premium marginally helps subsidize others’ policies.
That should read ‘part of town that…’
I remember hoping that the 30’s – 40’s inches predicted total rainfall was a TYPO. But no, truly biblical rains appeared.
We were out of the state, and could not get home for a family wedding. Our flight was cancelled. That broke our hearts. It also broke our hearts to see the devastation others experienced. So we sat helpless crying and glued to the TV and SCW for updates. Our house was on dry ground, but streets around us were flooded. We prayed a lot!
Just curious if you noticed/had any thoughts on the little scaricane on the 384-hour GFS run from 6Z this morning? Its gone as of 12Z, but just curious if that’s another one of those weird data issues with GFS or just a random pick up from one of the model runs?
GFS does that. It’s a bigger problem earlier in the season, but it still happens at other times.
The last day of the year in Houston that has recorded a triple digit temperature is October 13th.
Wow!!
Just flew in from NYC to Dallas. Haze when we left, haze when we arrived. What’s up with that? Hazy the whole way.
Wildfires abound.
Be glad you’re not in Seattle. Particulate level was up near Beijing levels and compared to smoking 8 1/2 cigarettes according to CBS Evening News.