Good morning. A cold front is sagging southward toward our region, and this will set the stage for several cooler and rainy days. It certainly will not rain continuously from now through Saturday morning, but there will be periods of moderate and potentially heavy rainfall. Some areas will see accumulations of rainfall, over time, that may produce some street flooding. For this reason we have initiated a Stage 1 flood alert from noon today through Friday night.
Wednesday
Conditions are warm and humid this morning, with lows having dropped only into the mid-70s. The front will reach areas northwest of Houston by around noon, push into the city this afternoon, and reach the coast late this afternoon or early evening. I expect to see a broken line of showers and thunderstorms with the front, but the bigger concern will likely come tonight and later this week. Why? Because the front is going to get hung up right along the coast, and as a result should help to generate nearly stationary showers and thunderstorms over time. Temperatures today should reach the low 80s ahead of the front, and drop into the low 60s tonight.
Thursday and Friday
The period from Thursday morning through Friday night is when we’re most concerned about the potential for heavy rainfall. I wish I could be more precise in terms of impacts, but the short-term modeling is not terribly consistent with where the heaviest rainfall will set up. As a result, we’re going to have to continue to predict widespread accumulations of 2 to 6 inches, with higher isolated totals.
I noted above that our primary concern is stationary storms, which this kind of setup—springtime, stalled front, plenty of moisture, and atmospheric disturbances—favors. For most of us, the rain totals should be completely manageable. Soils are reasonably dry, and the rains will be spread out over two days. But some locations will very likely see street flooding, so be weather aware the next couple of days. Highs on both days will be in the upper 60s to about 70 degrees, with lows in the upper 50s to 60 degrees.
Saturday
Fortunately, we’re increasingly confident that this mess is going to move out by Saturday morning, and this should lead to a mostly cloudy day, with highs of around 70 degrees. Rain chances will be quite low after the morning, perhaps only 10 percent. Overnight lows will drop to around 60 degrees.
Sunday
The same goes for Easter Sunday, in the sense that we expect the day to be rain-free. We also should see some partially clearing skies. So look for highs in the mid- to upper-80s, therefore, with a splash of sunshine. With dewpoints around 60 degrees, the air will also feel decently dry. So all in all, it should be a rather nice holiday.
Next week
We have no weather concerns for next week. The region should see a slow warming trend such that temperatures reach the mid-80s toward the end of the week, with humidity levels creeping back up.
Hi, my son is coming home from college and driving from Austin to Houston Thursday morning. At what point is he likely to encounter storms? Thanks, always appreciate your forecasts.
Assuming your son is leaving Austin zip code 78701 from 6 AM to 10 AM and arriving to Houston zip code 77002 from 8 AM to 12 P.M., and extrapolating from the forecasts from Space City Weather and the Weather Channel, it appears that there is possibly a chance of your son encountering heavy rain along his journey. I hope this helps.
I have a flight going out Friday night around midnight, should I expect any delays…
Extrapolating from the forecasts of Space City Weather and the Weather Channel for Bush Airport, from 11 P.M. Wednesday to 1 AM Thursday there is a 58% chance at 11 P.M., 73 % chance at 12 AM and a 63% chance at 1 AM of your flight being delayed by heavy rain. For Hobby Airport, it is 58% chance at 11 P.M., 63% chance at 12 AM and 67% chance of a flight that there will be a flight delay by heavy rain. I hope this helps.
Regarding my reply above, the percentages are for chances of rain and NOT for chances of heavy rain. I hope that clarifies any confusions.
Hi. I will be at the Northwest corner of Shephard and Alabama at precisely 7:37 on Thursday evening – will it be raining?
simma down nah. its called probability and science.
This is the funniest comment ever. Thank you. After reading the previous comments, this came in perfect comedic timing.
Ridiculous
If it is not raining at that intersection at that exact moment, I hope you will hop on here on Friday morning and lament the continually inaccurate forecasting because…
Well played. Well played.
I wish the wind would stop. Riding home last night on a bicycle, the winds started whipping around one of those orange mesh construction things, it came flying over and yanked the bar, pulled the bicycle to the ground, while I kept going. This orange mesh is what killed a bicycle on the trail a week ago. Also tired of all the clouds and rain.
You’re just a bummer fella. I wish some of the weather geeks would come on and tell us when the CIN is going to break over the metro.
I think the cap might finally be breaking now because the winds are starting to shift more out of the gulf now instead of the desert southwest. A line of rain showers is starting to develop West of Houston now. This is according to the current surface maps anyways.
Joseph, you are correct. Thank you. The 6PM LCH radiosonde confirms it. Now let’s get some rain.
Pouring in Humble and has been for the last 90+minutes
Space City Weather: Are you able to comment on whether the local news is correct in saying these rain figures could easily double? Is there truly the possibility of 12”?
Those numbers are predictions based on the latest weather info they get it could change later on tonight, but that is the first time I heard 12″ what station said that?
Looks like ABC 13 is showing this on their site.
Quarter size hail here near Addicks. I wasn’t expecting that…?
Hi, is there a way to know how rainy from Houston to Corpus Christi tomorrow afternoon? After 5? We are driving houston Corpus Christi all the way till Mc Allen.