Houston’s weather will be rather boring for awhile, and that’s not bad

Good morning. We stick to weather on this site—and so there are no politics here. But we would like to thank everyone in Houston, Texas, and the rest of the country who spent Tuesday working at poll locations, counting ballots late into the night and even today, and otherwise ensuring our nation’s free and fair elections. We should be proud of our ability to conduct an election in the midst of a pandemic, with record turnout.

Wednesday

The Houston region will warm up some today as high pressure that has provided us with clear and cool weather moves east. This will allow for a more pronounced flow of moisture into the metro region today, leading to moderately warmer nights and somewhat more humidity. As a result, we can expect highs today to reach into the upper 70s to 80 degrees beneath mostly sunny skies, and for lows to be about 10 degrees warmer than recent nights for most locations. Winds will be out of the southeast at 5 to 10 mph.

Thursday and Friday

The weather to end this week will basically remain in a stasis pattern as an upper-level low pressure system develops over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. This will lead to the formation of some clouds on Thursday morning, and should help to arrest and possibly reverse the region’s warming trend. Highs both days will rise into the upper 70s to 80 degrees, but nighttime lows may drop back into the 50s for most of the region on Thursday and Friday nights. Despite the proximity of the upper-level low, however, I don’t think we’ll see much in the way of rain chances.

Saturday and Sunday

By this weekend I think it will be “game on” for the warming trend, and this will lead to considerably more humidity, with daytime highs in the upper 70s to low 80s, and nights warming into the mid- to upper-60s in Houston. Skies should remain mostly sunny.

Next week

When I look to the forecast for next week I can’t help but groan as it’s really not becoming all that much more clear. At this point some kind of front is likely to reach the coast on Tuesday, and bring a reasonable chance of light to moderate rain with it. But I can’t say with much confidence how much cool air will be arriving with the front, or how long it will stick—maybe a day or two? Then there is some evidence, which is far from overwhelming, for a stronger front toward the weekend. Weather forecasting isn’t perfect, folks, but I think it’s safe to say we do better than polls most days.

Tropics

Eta made landfall as a major hurricane on Tuesday, bringing life-threatening storm surge into Nicaragua, and lashing Central America with extremely heavy rainfall. The storm will meander across Honduras, and likely Guatemala, before turning northeast and moving back into the Caribbean Sea. I have not been able to find reliable reports of the devastation so far caused in Central America.

If you liked the uncertainty in our forecast for next week’s weather in Houston, you’ll love it for the future of Eta in about a week’s time. I think it is safe to say the storm will move toward Cuba this weekend, and then probably approach southern Florida.

We have real questions about how strong the storm will be at that time, and whether it begins to loop around in absence of any pronounced steering currents—perhaps somewhere in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Eta is definitely something for Florida and the southeastern United States to watch, but not something we need concern ourselves with in Texas.