Houston’s weather story remains the same

It’s both a blessing and a curse as a meteorologist to live somewhere that you could almost set a clock to the weather each day. Predictability is great, but they say variety is the spice of life. Houston’s weather has been nothing if not persistent recently. And it looks to continue heading into the next several days.

Today

I don’t see a ton of difference between today and any other day we’ve had this week really. But there are enough subtle differences to make me fairly confident we see more showers around today than we did yesterday. Precipitable water (“PWAT,” a measurement of how much moisture is available in the atmosphere) is flat or down just a bit today versus where it was on Thursday in Houston. PWAT remains elevated north of The Woodlands and east into Louisiana today. While it could rain anywhere as we go into this afternoon, the best odds of cooling downpours will probably be near the coast or Galveston Bay this morning and east of I-45 or well north this afternoon. But regardless of where you’ll be in the Houston area, have an umbrella at the ready today.

Here’s a model derived radar forecast from 12 PM-8 PM today showing widely scattered showers flaring up, especially east of I-45 and to the north of Houston. But that certainly won’t exempt Houston from storm chances today! (Texas Tech)

 

Temperatures will range from the low to mid-90s where rain is minimal to the upper 80s or lower 90s where downpours are more persistent.

Weekend through Monday

So every day this weekend is going to have continued storm chances. We can’t say exactly how the timing is going to play out in terms of where and when specifically you’ll see showers. But, using some clues from the models, we can try and peg down some more likely periods.

Based on PWATs as discussed above, I think Sunday will be the stormier day this weekend, with pretty high storm risks lingering into Monday as well. Saturday certainly won’t be a dry day, but PWAT values are not that much higher than today, so I’d expect the most showers east of I-45 on Saturday afternoon. By Sunday, as those high PWATs spread toward Houston and vicinity, I expect numerous afternoon showers and storms.

Forecasted precipitable water the next 4-5 days shows a ramp up this weekend (higher storm chances) and a slow ramp down next week (lowering storm chances). PWAT peaks on Sunday it appears, so that should carry the best storm chances. (Weather Bell)

 

Not everyone will be rained on this weekend, but as we’ve seen since last weekend, the dispersion of rainfall will be quite varied. Some folks may get just a couple drops, while others could see two to four inches of rain and some street flooding.

Rainfall across Greater Houston has been variable over the last seven days, with some areas seeing near-nothing and other places seeing over 5.5″ of rainfall. (Harris County Flood Control)

 

For those of you new to Houston summers, thanks for joining us. As a Northeast transplant, this took a couple years to get used to, but you learn to deal with it! Temperatures will probably be held down a bit due to increasing clouds this weekend, but we should still hit close to 90° in most spots, give or take a couple degrees.

Beyond Monday

The forecast is challenging beyond Monday. I’d expect storm chances to continue each afternoon, but they’ll likely begin to gradually drop off a bit as high pressure makes an attempt to expand into Texas. So don’t put the umbrella in storage, but hopefully you’ll be able to give it a day or two off by later next week. Of course, high pressure also likely means hotter temperatures. I don’t think we see anything extreme here, but some mid-90s might be back on the board by mid to late next week. Stay tuned.

Posted at 6:30 AM Friday by Matt

8 thoughts on “Houston’s weather story remains the same

  1. Jay

    I have not received an [new post] email since July 10th. Should I resubscribe to get that going? Can’t miss out on my daily weather report! I am quite addicted to it now…

    1. Matt Lanza

      Hi Jay, As I mentioned to Wes here, we’re still migrating a few things over with the server changes. We’ll let you know if you need to resubscribe for some reason. Keep checking the site or our Facebook/Twitter for the latest on that.

  2. Josh

    I know it’s not yall’s area, but we’re headed to Dallas for a bachelor party this weekend. Any thoughts on the weather up there?

    1. Matt Lanza

      Sunny & hot most of the time, but a chance for some cooling PM storms too. Similar story to Houston, but about 3-5 degrees hotter.

  3. Judy Williams

    Your posts dropped me. I tried t resign up several days ago but it failed. I signed up again today.

    I don’t usually open your e-mails because my browser allows me to view it by preview. Which I always do.

    I hope I get them again. I do enjoy the information you proved every day.

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