Good morning. I’m jumping in with a quick weekend update due to the ongoing wet pattern. We don’t have any concerns about significant, widespread flooding right now. However, these storms will bear a lot of moisture, and some will produce high rainfall rates that can quickly lead to flash flooding in Houston’s streets. This is a concern for today, and for the next week or so.
In terms of the overall picture, after a torrid start to summer Houston is in the midst of a stark pattern change due to an unsettled atmosphere that is producing lots of clouds, cooler daytime temperatures, and widespread showers. How about this for a stark contrast? Friday’s high temperature at Bush Intercontinental Airport was just 77 degrees (a record low maximum temperature for August 19). The region has not recorded a daily high that low since April 19. This pattern is likely to hold through most of next week, although daytime highs will not be that cool.
Saturday and Sunday
We’re going to see rainfall on both weekend days across much of the region, probably with 60 or 70 percent coverage, and the best chances coming between about 10 am and 6 pm CT on both days with daytime heating. Accumulations will be on the order of 0.5 to 1.0 inch of rain for most, but a handful of locations could see 2, 3 or even more inches of rain beneath the heaviest storms that will have high rainfall rates. Otherwise, expect high temperatures generally in the upper 80s, with partly to mostly cloudy skies.
Next week
The pattern, if anything, turns wetter during the coming week for Houston and much of Texas as high pressure is gone and the state sees a series of atmospheric disturbances pass through. The best chance of rain will come for parts of north and east Texas, where upwards of 10 inches is possible through Friday. This is almost certainly going to cause flooding issues for parts of the Dallas metro area over to places like Texarkana. Closer to home, I think much of the area will pick up 2 to 5 inches of rain from Monday through Friday of next week. Highs most days will be in the mid- to upper-80s. These days will be partly to mostly cloudy, with limited chances for sunshine until Friday most likely.
Tropics
The National Hurricane Center has designated a tropical disturbance in the southern Gulf of Mexico “Potential Tropical Cyclone Four,” and it should move into the northern coast of Mexico, and South Texas, during the next 24 hours. Whether it organizes sufficiently before then to become a tropical depression or storm is largely moot, as it is principally a rainmaker, likely to bring several inches of rain to those areas. The Upper Texas coast may see some ancillary moisture from this system that will support rain on Sunday or Monday, but we don’t see any serious, direct effects.
Thank you!
Thanks for keeping us accurately and calmly informed as always!
What’s the source of the radar image you used in your yesterday’s post? can’t find the black background radar map.
Thanks for all you do.
So I guess that lowest recorded high for August 19 is more evidence of climate change much like the extreme high temperatures we experienced in June? Just curious.
Probably had to do more with clouds and rain keeping weather cool.
May was like June, June was like July, July was like August, August will be like June?
Are you thinking there’s going to be any thunder and lightning mid afternoon? My nine-year-old son‘s pool party in our backyard is from 2 to 4pm. I doubt the boys would mind swimming in the rain but the parents would mind swimming in the lightning.
Eric, my A/C bill thanks you.
To try to put things in perspective, we are on a giant space ship, traveling through uncharted territory. Weather has varied for eons and will continue to do so. Some earlier centuries were much hotter and others were much colder than current times.
To me, it is difficult to believe that mankind can either heat or cool the planet, even if mankind tried really hard. It takes a big leap for me to believe that government can have much, if any, significant effect on weather or climate.
Well….time to do more research and start believing, because it’s true and it’s a well accepted fact at this point. There are a lot of things that are or were beyond our comprehension, but thank goodness there have always been Earthlings that seek knowledge and help us laypeople learn how wild and intricate our world is.
Climate change is happening, mankind is affecting it (humans, but mostly corporations) and the effects will be detrimental to our world if unchecked. Some effects can already not be undone (like the extinction of some species). Governments are the only ones who can enact change on the scale we need it. We are past individuals drinking carrying their own bags and drinking through paper straws. We need regulation and new standards placed upon major corporations, worldwide, to undo some of this damage.