We are now just less than one month away from the beginning of hurricane season (June 1). Despite what you may have heard, forecasters have very little sense of what will come this season, as there aren’t any strong climatic signals at this point. The most probable outcome is a near-normal, or slightly more active season than normal in the Atlantic, but this really means nothing. If just three hurricanes form in 2018, but they’re all in the Gulf of Mexico, that’s a busy year. If no hurricanes come into the Gulf of Mexico, but a slow-moving tropical storm stalls over Houston, that’s a really busy year. The bottom line is that you should have a plan for this if you live here.
- If a hurricane threatens, will you evacuate from the storm surge? If so, where will you (and any pets) go? How will you get there?
- If you’re staying behind, the time to load in supplies is not 24 hours before landfall. The stores will be picked clean by then.
- Buy flood insurance now. It takes 30 days to kick in.
Here are more good tips for making a plan for hurricane season.
I’ll add one more suggestion: Don’t freak out. Storms like Hurricane Harvey are rare, rare beasts. The chance of Houston seeing significant effects from tropical weather are, historically, only about once every five to 10 years, and a large, powerful hurricane typically only affects Houston about every 20 years. So be prepared, but not paranoid. (Also, you can be thankful for Reliant, which has sponsored Space City Weather all year, so we’ll be with you every step of the way during hurricane season).
Now, onto the forecast for this week.
Wednesday and Thursday
There’s not a whole lot to say about our region’s weather. Wednesday and Thursday will both be warm, gusty days as the onshore flow moves a lot of moisture inland. This will bring us a couple of warm days with highs in the mid- to upper-80s—highs where you live will depend on the extent to which the Sun breaks through during the afternoon hours. But for the most part I expect cloudy skies, but only very slight rain chances. Overnight lows will remain warm, at about 70 degrees.
Friday and Saturday
The timing of a cool front moving into Houston later this week has moved forward a bit, and this now seems likely to happen some time on Saturday. The better rain chances appear likely to the west and north of Houston, and I still expect our region to see only a few tenths of an inch of rain (honestly I’d like a little more because next week looks dry). Aside from the rain chances, Friday and Saturday will probably both be cloudy, warm and muggy days, with highs in the low 80s.
Sunday and beyond
The start of next week looks nice, with somewhat drier air in the wake of the front. Expect partly to mostly sunny skies, with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s.
Post Harvey, local, county, state, and federal governments have done virtually nothing to address flood control improvements, other than to propose raising taxes. We don’t need any more studies or tax increases – we need action. The money’s there – start throwing dirt.
I can agree on this. Get the San Jacinto river dredged ASAP. PLAN to drain the lakes DAYS in advance, consolidate the authorities involved with the lakes and the river.
Get CLEAR CREEK straightened, wider, and deeper. Everyone is concerned with the City, but the water has to flow through the county before AND after the city.
My personal opinion – Talk is cheap.. We don’t need a hurricane to get major flooding in some parts i.e. 2015 (Memorial Day) , 2016 (Tax Day) and 2017 (Harvey) all of which several houses/businesses took on water …. Harris County over the years has taken needed money from the flood/drainage improvement fund to put in bike paths and “green” spaces, never paying the MUCH NEEDED drainage fund back… with all of the over-development and lack of zoning, Houston will continue to flood each year until someone has the sense to do something, not just talk about it.
I disagree….there isn’t a lot of money out here unless you want to take on even more debt.
The federal deficit is still over half a TRILLION per year or about $2000 per person per year.
The state is not exactly swimming in money even with a bit of an oil rebound.
The City of Houston still needs to resolve its debt problems or face the possibility of becoming the next Detroit.
HISD is in such a mess they are about to be taken over by the state (that’s not just a funding problem, but also a problem of incompetency at the highest levels).
So, just where is the money coming from for a project that doesn’t directly effect 98% of the people in the country?
The state has something like $12 billion in the Rainy Day Fund. If Harvey didn’t qualify as a rainy day, what does?
Would you refer me to a comparable no hype weather for FL keys and US East coast?
Major thanks for pointing out that the upcoming season is not a single binary set. We locals need to review/prepare with some fore thought involved.
How far inland can storm surge travel? I live in the West Pearland area, should we be concerned about storm surge during a hurricane if we’re not near a large body of water?
Thank you
I’m curious on the phrasing above — I considered Ike to be a large, powerful hurricane, just for wind and not rain, i.e. I didn’t have power for two weeks. Just for level-setting, when you use that phrasing, what boxes are you ticking for that description?
In today’s post, the altitude for Bush is listed as 89ft. I always thought it was closer to 120ft. I know this is a little of topic, but it did arouse my curiosity.
Thanks for doing a great job on the Spacecityweather newsletter.