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Alright, let’s get into the forecast, which will feature a brief roller coaster ride with a little spring and a little autumn and winter.

Today

Much like yesterday, today should feature sun and passing high clouds. There may be a bit more cloud cover at times today, especially later. Maybe we can still eke out another good sunset. Either way, it will be a cordial golf clap sort of day. Highs will be well into the 60s and a few spots may even crack 70 this afternoon.

Friday

As a more assertive push of humid air lifts north into our area tomorrow, we should see clouds and a few passing showers. I don’t think we’re going to see a ton of sun tomorrow, but especially in the afternoon hours it’s possible. Any rainfall should be fairly brief and mostly just conversational in nature. Morning lows will be in the 60s (about 15 to 20 degrees warmer than today), and we will warm well into the 70s tomorrow.

Saturday

The morning should start off fine on Saturday with low clouds and muggy conditions. Morning lows will likely be in the mid-60s in most spots. I can’t rule out some areas of fog Saturday morning either. We could even see a little coastal fog in the afternoon down near Galveston.

The afternoon should start fine enough, but then a line of showers and thunderstorms with our much discussed cold front will push through the area. I expect this to occur in the latter half of the afternoon, probably after 2-3 PM. The line of showers and storms will start as just some scattered activity northwest of Houston, so places in the Brazos Valley and north of Conroe may see just some brief downpours or even nothing at all during the early afternoon. As the front passes through the Houston metro area, the line will be gradually congealing but even here it may still struggle a bit. The good news for anyone with plans on Saturday is that the precipitation should be moving fairly quickly. I can’t see more than an hour or so of rainfall at any one spot as this thing pushes through. Showers should reach the coast by 7 to 9 PM.

The best chance of any severe weather is likely to stay northeast of most of our area. But with these kind of fronts, there’s always a chance something pops before it exits the area. With a pretty strong “cap” in place on Saturday, however, it seems like strong storms from the Houston metro to the coast seems like a very low risk.

The main story with this front will be temperatures.

We will see high temperatures rise into the low to mid 70s in north and northwestern reaches of the area on Saturday. From Houston south, because the front is later in the day, highs well into the 70s with a few spots near 80 degrees will be likely. Behind the front, we’ll drop through the 60s and into the 50s relatively quickly, settling into the 40s on Sunday morning. In addition, winds will be quite blustery Saturday night into Sunday morning with gusts of 20 to 30 mph likely.

Sunday and Monday

Unlike our last few fronts it seems, this one will break through and clear us out. Expect plentiful sunshine on Sunday and Monday. After our chilly and windy start, Sunday will only warm into the mid to upper-50s.

The coldest morning will be Monday with upper-30s likely, and even some mid-30s in the outlying, more rural areas. We should poke back up above 60 on Monday afternoon.

Rest of next week

We should warm up through midweek, along with a return to some clouds. Another cold front may time toward late week or the weekend with showers and storms and colder temperatures. These types of El Niño-ish patterns usually feature cooler days and cool to cold night — but not intense cold. No sign of freezing temperatures for Houston on the horizon for now.

Before getting into the forecast this morning, I wanted to share a couple of observations about Houston’s weather of late. Let’s start with the acorns. Oh, the acorns. They’re still falling. I went back and checked this morning, and I first wrote about the mast year for acorns we’re experiencing back on November 2. That’s five weeks ago, and they were already thick as thieves by that point. If there’s a naturalist, arborist, or other expert out there who can quantify this year’s acorn crop I’d love to hear about it. I just can’t believe they’re still falling. Will they ever stop?

The other thing one cannot really miss, if you’re outdoors during the early evening hours, is the grand sunsets we’ve been experiencing. Matt has been noticing them too, and says that they’re due to a thin layer of cirrus clouds. These are the wispy clouds high in the atmosphere, which are formed entirely of ice crystals, and often indicate the presence of the jet stream. You can see these clouds in the lovely photos below, sent in by readers. In the case of our recent sunsets, there are enough of these clouds to produce vivid colors by scattering some light, but not so many that they block out too much of the Sun’s last, dying rays. We’re likely to see more such sunsets this winter with an active jet streak.

Alright, on to the forecast, which is somewhat of a mixed bag with a lot of people undoubtedly having pre-holiday plans this weekend.

Wednesday

Today should be a pleasant and mostly sunny winter day. Look for highs in the mid-60s, with light easterly winds. Those winds will begin to turn southeasterly tonight as high pressure near Texas shifts further to the east. We should still see one more cool night, however, as lows drop into the upper 40s for most of the Houston metro area, and lower 50s closer to the coast.

Thursday

Southerly winds should become more pronounced on Thursday, and we’ll start to see some moisture return to the atmosphere. This may result in a few clouds as highs nudge up to around 70 degrees. With a warmer, southerly flow in place lows on Thursday night will probably only drop to around 60 degrees. A few very light, scattered showers may be possible overnight.

Friday

This will be a warmer and more humid day, with highs in the mid-70s and a mix of sunshine and clouds. Some very light showers will again be possible due to the atmospheric moisture, but I expect them to be rather scattered. Temperatures on Friday night will be downright warm, only falling into the upper 60s for most of the region.

Saturday

Like many of you, probably, my family has some outdoor plans during the daytime on Saturday and the timing of a front is not making for easy planning. While there’s still not great consistency, the forecast models are trending slightly later with the frontal passage, probably putting it some time during the afternoon hours. So here’s what I think I know. Saturday morning will start out warm and muggy, and much of Houston may get into the mid- or upper-70s. At some point we’re going to see a storm system, perhaps an intact line of storms, perhaps a broken line. I don’t feel confident yet in saying whether this will occur during the late-morning or afternoon hours yet. But by or before sunset these storms should clear the area, with much drier and colder air moving in. I’m not concerned about rainfall accumulations, as I expect most areas to receive perhaps 0.5 inch or less, but we can’t dismiss the possibility of some of these daytime thunderstorms becoming severe due to the somewhat unstable air mass. Our confidence in the forecast will increase during the next day or two as we get within the realm of higher-resolution modeling.

Sunday

Overnight lows will drop into the 40s heading into Sunday morning, with gusty conditions. Wake-up temperatures on Sunday morning will “feel” like they’re in the 30s due to these winds. So bundle up if you’re going to be out and about. Sunday’s high temperatures will likely only reach the upper 50s even with lots of sunshine. Absolute temperatures on Monday morning will be even colder, probably down to around 40 degrees in Houston. But with less wind they’ll be more tolerable.

Next week

Pretty much all of next week should remain on the chilly side, with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s. There’s no sign of a warm-up in the near term, friends. Maybe don an ugly Christmas sweater early?

Good morning. Houston faces a couple of more chilly nights before we warm up briefly heading into the weekend. Unfortunately I still do not have too much confidence in the forecast for Saturday, which will see the passage of a robust cold front at some point, and harbors the potential for some storms. After the front’s passage we’ll be much colder on Sunday, and for pretty much all of the next work week. Also, at the end of today’s post, I’ll have a few words to wrap up the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season.

Tuesday

We’re starting off chilly this morning, with lows generally in the 40s for most of Houston. Winds are generally light, and will remain so even as a reinforcing flow of cooler and drier air moves in today. It should be a pleasant day, with highs near 70 degrees and partly to mostly sunny skies. Low temperatures tonight will again drop into the upper-40s for most of the Houston area, with cooler conditions inland, and a bit warmer conditions near the coast.

Wednesday

A sunny day, with temperatures a bit lower in the mid-60s due to the influx of cooler air. Winds will gradually shift from the north to the east, heralding the beginning of an onshore flow. This will eventually lead to warmer and more humid weather, but lows on Wednesday night should still drop into the upper 40s for most.

Thursday

Skies will turn partly cloudy as atmospheric moisture levels rise. Winds will also be more noticeable, coming from the south at about 10 mph, but with higher gusts, perhaps up to 20 mph. Look for highs around 70 degrees, with lows only dropping to around 60 overnight.

Friday

This will be the warmest day for awhile, with highs ticking up into the mid- to upper-70s, with a mix of sunshine and clouds. With dewpoints in the 60s, it will feel a bit sticky outside, but nothing too crazy. Lows on Friday night will only drop into the mid- to upper-60s.

Saturday

The forecast for Saturday remains in flux. What we know is that a cold front, probably with an attendant line of showers and thunderstorms, will move through. But that’s where the certainty ends. First question is when on Saturday. A passage earlier in the day, by or before noon, would mean less daytime heating for the front to work with as it pushes through. So this means less rain, and potential for severe storms. A later front, during the afternoon hours, means an increased potential for more rain and stronger storms.

Until there’s some clarity on the timing, I’m afraid there’s going to be a lot of uncertainty about temperatures, rainfall, and winds on Saturday, particularly during the middle of the day. (In terms of rainfall amounts, I would not be too concerned. Due to storm movements most areas will probably receive less than 1 inch). However, after the front moves through we can be confident that rain showers will end fairly quickly, skies will clear, and northerly winds will blow, gusting to perhaps 30 mph or higher. Saturday night, after the front’s passage, will be cold, with lows dropping into the 40s.

Sunday and beyond

Sunday will be sunny, clear and cold. It’s possible that high temperatures do not even reach 60 degrees. Northerly winds will continue, although they should slacken some during the daytime and evening hours. Lows on Sunday night will again drop into the 40s, and possibly even colder area-wide away from the immediate coast.

Most of next week should remain fairly winter-like, with highs in the 60s and lows generally in the 40s. Some rain chances will return during the middle of the week, but my confidence in likelihood and amounts is fairly low. At this point I don’t believe we’re looking at a substantial warm-up heading into next weekend, so viva la fría!

Atlantic hurricane season

We told you back in late September that, effectively, hurricane season was over for Texas. And indeed it was. But now the 2023 season is over for the rest of the Atlantic basin as well. Over on our companion website, The Eyewall, Matt has written a synopsis of what happened this year. It turned out to be an active season, as Matt concludes: “Suffice to say, 2023 will go down as one of the most active El Niño hurricane seasons ever recorded. That’s a little concerning given that an El Niño of this magnitude is usually enough to mitigate things. That only partially happened this year, in part due to the extreme warmth in the Atlantic.”

I want to thank everyone who read and shared The Eyewall with others this season. We’ll continue with occasional posts during the offseason, about extreme weather affecting the United States, before resuming full-time coverage for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.

Good morning! Houston will see generally calm weather this week, with cooler temperatures prevailing until Thursday or Friday. We’ll warm comfortably into the 70s to start the weekend before the arrival of a fairly robust cold front on Saturday. I’m keeping an eye on the potential for storms with the front’s passage, although the gnarlier weather may remain north of the Houston metro area. Sunday and the first half of next week will turn chillier.

Monday

High temperatures today will be a touch cooler than Sunday, reaching the upper 60s for most of the metro area. This is because a front is pushing through Houston, to keep our air on the drier side of things. There isn’t enough moisture to produce any rain, and we should end up with partly to mostly sunny skies today. Look for high temperatures in the upper 60s, with generally northerly winds. The cooler and drier flow should allow lows to drop into the upper 40s tonight.

Tuesday

This will be a sunny day, with highs near 70 degrees, and light northeasterly winds. Another shot of drier air arrives later on Tuesday, with a reinforcing front. This should push lows on Tuesday night into the upper 40s again.

Wednesday

Due to the second front, on Tuesday, this day will be cooler. Look for highs, perhaps, in the mid-60s along with sunny skies. Lows on Wednesday night will drop to around 50 degrees, with cooler conditions for outlying areas. This will mark the beginning of a warming trend as the onshore flow resumes.

Thursday

With that more southerly flow we’ll start to see humidity increasing a bit on Thursday, with highs in the low 70s. Winds will start to become a little more gusty as well, coming from the south. Lows on Thursday night will likely only drop to around 60 degrees.

Friday and Saturday

The end of the week will be warmer, with highs in the mid-70s or so, and fairly humid air. Winds will also be more pronounced from the south ahead of a cold front that is likely to push through some time on Saturday. The timing is to be determined, of course, but this front will bring some healthy rain chances, gusty northerly winds, and the chance for some severe weather. The extent of thunderstorms, some possibly severe, will depend on the instability available in the atmosphere. That is difficult to forecast this far out. However, this is something to watch for, and take into account if you have outdoor plans on Saturday. We’ll of course fine tune this forecast as the week goes on. Conditions will turn windy and cold after the front’s passage, with Sunday morning’s lows likely dropping into the 40s.

Next week

We’ll see a colder start to next week, with highs in the 50s or 60s, and lows in the 40s before a warming trend begins around Tuesday or so. A handful of readers have asked about a Christmas forecast, and I’m sorry to say that three weeks out I just have no confidence in making any predictions. I’ll make an initial forecast one week from today.