In brief: The current storms across the region are behaving more or less as expected, and much of the Houston region is getting a good soaking with no major problems. We see one more wave of storms this afternoon before the front moves offshore.

Houston weather status: It’s raining. And it will continue to do so for several more hours.

We have seen a couple of waves of showers and thunderstorms today, with a pulsing up of intensity followed by a break. This has brought some healthy rain totals, with up to 4 inches over the last 24 hours northwest of Houston, near locations such as Cypress. Most other areas have picked up 1 to 3 inches. Pretty much all of the region’s major bayous and waterways remain within banks, so the issue has primarily been one of brief street flooding.

Based upon radar trends and our most recent high-resolution modeling, it appears likely that one final wave will push through the metro area between 3 and 5 pm, from west to east. This could bring an additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall for some locations, and we cannot rule out some severe impacts such as damaging winds and possibly hail. As this wave should cross our region during the evening commute, please take a little extra care. After this, from approximately 5 to 9 pm, we likely will see some additional light to moderate showers before the mess moves off to our east.

That will be the end of the rain, but it will be replaced by gusty winds from the north-northeast, up to 30 mph in Houston, and perhaps a bit higher along the coast. These gusts should start to subside on Saturday morning, before dying off during the afternoon hours. The weekend still looks splendid and sunny, with chilly mornings and pleasant afternoons in the 70s. Enjoy!

In brief: Periods of heavy rain will track through Houston throughout the day today, especially along and north of I-10. Additionally, some strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon across the southern 2/3 of the area. Street flooding is a good bet today. Rain ends this evening with gusty winds overnight. But a stellar weekend awaits.

Today

So far this morning, heavy rainfall has been limited to the northern half of the Houston metro, this after some strong storms overnight brought numerous hail reports from Sugar Land through Missouri City and Pearland.

Areas between Cypress and Spring have seen 2 to 3 inches of rain since yesterday. The area that saw hail also received close to 1.5 inches of rain in many spots. Rain continues to jet along and north of Highway 59/I-69 in and west of Houston this morning and north of I-10 east of Houston. That’s going to be the general pattern for most of the day, where those areas see fairly persistent rainfall.

Severe weather risk

However, as we get into the late morning and afternoon hours, there will likely be at least a couple of more ambitious clusters of thunderstorms that develop south of those areas. This would be primarily along and south of I-10 across the Houston metro all the way down to the coast. Not to say we could not see a couple of these find their way north of the I-10 corridor into Liberty, Waller, or northern Harris County, but the severe weather focus today will be mostly south of there. Again, I-10 is not a magical barrier; it’s just a nice, easy demarcation line that most readers generally know.

As these storms wiggle through, any of them will be capable of producing 40 to 50 mph wind gusts, some large hail, and frequent lightning. As you get closer to, say, Freeport, Lake Jackson, Matagorda Bay, or as far south as Corpus Christi, there is also a little bit of “spin” in the atmosphere that could yield a storm that produces a tornado, so just be aware of that. The entire southern two-thirds of the area is in a marginal risk (level 1/5) primarily due to the hail risk, but also due to the wind and very isolated tornado risk.

Flooding risks

In terms of how much additional rain we see, the entire area away from the coast is under a Flood Watch from the National Weather Service in Houston, a slight risk (level 2/4) for excessive rainfall from the NWS’s Weather Prediction Center, and a Stage 1 Flood Alert here on Space City Weather.

What does that tell you? Street flooding is probably a good bet today. This is a good day to be weather aware if you have errands to run or appointments to tend to. Give yourself extra time to get where you need to go. This will be especially true in the second half of the day as the ground will be saturated, making some street flooding more likely.

How much additional rain should we expect? It will vary, but likely another 1 to 4 inches of rain through the duration of the event where it’s currently raining (as of 5:30 AM). South of those areas should see anywhere from a half-inch to 2 inches of rain depending on exactly how this afternoon’s thunderstorms align. The latest HRRR model’s depiction of additional rainfall through this evening is shown below. Don’t focus on specifics here, but you can see the general pattern of how things should flow.

The good news is that rain should be out of here tonight, so expect the rain to end from west to east from about 8 PM through 1 AM or so. Early evening plans will be dicey, but late evening plans may be ok. Just don’t drive through any residual flooded roads!

Eric will have another update on today’s weather situation by the afternoon.

Gusty winds

One last note: As the rain begins to wind down, and the front pushes through with the disturbance kind of wound up, we are going to see non-thunderstorm winds increase. This should be especially true near the coast and in the southern half of the area. Inland wind gusts should be on the order of 20 to 30 mph beginning after 6 PM. Some locally higher gusts are possible. Coastal wind gusts will be more like 35 to 45 mph, and gale warnings are posted for the bays and Gulf.

Winds should be at their gustiest from about midnight through 7 AM Saturday. Then, you’ll see them gradually subside through the day tomorrow.

Weekend

Other than the wind in the morning, tomorrow looks glorious with low humidity, sunshine, and highs in the mid-70s. Overnight lows will be in the 50s. Sunday looks just as nice or better with more sun and highs in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees. Enjoy the early May, comfortable weekend spring fling!

Next week

Looking ahead, temperatures do warm up a good bit, back close to 90 degrees by the time we get to Tuesday or Wednesday. Believe it or not, another May cold front may be in the cards for later next week. Details forthcoming on that, but additional rain and storm chances may be in the cards around then as well.

In brief: With today’s update we are issuing a Stage 1 flood alert for Friday in the Houston area. This means mostly minor impacts, but we cannot rule out some street flooding. The weekend looks much cooler, with sunny skies and generally very pleasant weather.

Stage 1 flood alert

We are not expecting widespread flooding issues on Friday, but there is clearly the potential for heavy rainfall across the Houston metro area. In terms of timing, the most likely period will be from late Thursday evening through late Friday evening. There is the potential for impacts both during the morning and evening commute on Friday, not to mention school pickups and after-school activities. Most of Houston should pick up 1 to 3 inches over the course of the 24-hour period, which is totally manageable. However there are likely to be spots that pick up more than this, with the potential for isolated totals of 3 to 5 inches. For this reason we are instituting a Stage 1 flood alert for all of Friday. We expect rainfall potential to fall off quickly by Friday night, midnight. Saturday looks fine, with clearing skies.

Thursday

Houston reached 88 degrees on Wednesday, but I believe we’re done with the very warm weather for now. Skies today will be mostly cloudy and this should help limit high temperatures for most locations in the mid-80s. An initial push of slightly drier air should arrive this afternoon, allowing low temperatures tonight to fall into the 60. In terms of rainfall, we will see the potential for scattered showers, and perhaps a few thunderstorms today and into this early evening. However, there won’t be anything too special about this activity. We’ll start to see increasing chances for rainfall after sunset on Thursday and into the overnight hours.

Friday

The much discussed cold front will essentially stall over the Houston metro area on Friday, and this will serve as a focus for showers and heavy rainfall. (There is a very slight chance for severe weather, such as damaging winds and hail). There remains some uncertainty as to where the heaviest band of rainfall will set up, it could be along the Highway 59/I-69 corridor, or a little north or south. But we do feel like somewhere is going to see 2 to 4 inches, with higher amounts possible. Generally we expect most of the region to pick up 1 to 3 inches. This potential for rainfall will persist into the evening Friday before the front finally pushes off the coast.

In terms of temperatures, I expect everyone to be in the 60s on Friday morning, with inland areas remaining there while coastal areas may warm into the mid-70s. By early Saturday the entire area will be in the 50s.

Saturday and Sunday

Although some clouds may linger on Saturday morning, we now pretty much expect wall-to-wall sunshine for the weekend. Saturday’s highs may peak around 70 degrees, whereas Sunday reaches the mid-70s. Friday night and much of Saturday will be quite breezy, with southerly gusts reaching 25 or even 30 mph (especially along the coast). These winds should die down by Saturday afternoon or evening, so Sunday looks placid in this regard. Lows on Saturday night should again drop into the 50s, with the potential for upper 40s for far inland areas. Both Saturday and Sunday will enjoy low humidity. This is a really nice cold blast for early May, so enjoy it before summer arrives!

Next week

We’ll warm back up to the mid-80s by the middle of next week before a weaker front may push into the region and bring some rain chances and slightly cooler conditions. We’ll see.

In brief: Houston faces one more ‘hot’ day before temperatures begin to moderate. There is a low-end chance of showers and thunderstorms today and Thursday, but we are highly confident in widespread showers on Friday. The weekend looks considerably colder.

The 90s are back

Houston officially hit 90 degrees for the first time this year on Tuesday, reaching the mark shortly after noon at Bush Intercontinental Airport. As we noted on Monday, this is only a few days earlier than normal for such a temperature, so it’s not anything to be too concerned about. However, it still felt pretty warm, and served notice for the fact that we are only about a month from the start of June. We know it is not yet June because a fairly strong cool front will arrive on Friday, driving our low temperatures back into the 50s.

By the way, if you missed our Q&A yesterday, there were a lot of good questions, and Matt and I put a lot of effort into providing some answers. Be sure and check it out!

Wednesday

It is really warm and muggy this morning, with lows generally in the mid-70s. Overall conditions today should be similar to Tuesday in terms of heat and humidity, with highs likely reaching about 90 degrees in Houston and points north, and slightly cooler conditions near the coast. The question is the potential for storms as a weak front sags into the region.

Generally, I think chances are best for showers, thunderstorms, and severe weather along and north of Highway 105, so for locations such as College Station, Huntsville, and Livingston. Even for these areas the overall chance is fairly low, but it is something to watch out for. Later this afternoon it is possible that storms move further south, into the city of Houston itself. This is a low-probability, high-risk scenario in that it is unlikely to happen, but if storms do break out later today they could be severe.

Low temperatures tonight will drop into the lower 70s.

Thursday

This will be a mostly cloudy day with highs generally in the mid-80s. Humidity will still be pretty high. There is perhaps a 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. As slightly cooler air drifts in, overnight lows may drop into the 60s.

Friday

This is the prime day for showers as a front moves into the region. Let’s start with temperatures. For areas north of Houston, highs may top out at around 60 degrees behind the front, whereas areas along and south of Interstate 10 may reach the upper 70s before cooler temperatures arrive during the afternoon or evening hours. Overnight lows will drop into the 50s by early Saturday area wide, so that will be a big change.

And what of rain? Basically from the wee hours of Friday morning through Friday evening there will be a healthy chance of showers and thunderstorms. We cannot rule out severe weather like hail and damaging winds, but the biggest threat appears to be heavy rainfall. Most of the region should pick up 1 to 3 inches, from Huntsville all the way to Galveston Island. For a lot of Houston this will be a helpful dousing of rainfall with summer right around the corner. But I’m concerned about the potential for street flooding. Matt and I will assess the need for a Stage 1 flood alert as some locations will almost certainly see higher amounts.

If you have outdoor events planned for Friday or Friday evening you absolutely need a backup plan because we are highly confident in widespread rain showers.

Saturday

The rains should clear out on Friday night, leaving us with breezy and cooler conditions on Saturday morning. Some locations, particularly near the coast, may see gusts up to 30 mph later on Friday night and through Saturday morning. These winds should back off a little, with clearing skies as temperatures warm to the lower 70s on Saturday. Lows on Saturday night should drop into the mid-50s in Houston, with some inland areas reaching the upper 40s. As noted above, this front will pack a nice punch for late spring.

Sunday

This will be a splendid day, with sunny skies, light winds, low humidity, and highs in the 70s. Sunday night will be a few degrees warmer than Saturday night as the onshore flow begins to return.

Next week

Most of next week should be warmer, in the 80s, with returning humidity. A weak front later next week may bring some showers by Thursday or Friday.