In brief: In today’s post we discuss the warm pattern we’re in, which is likely to persist for most of the rest of the month. What does that mean for freezes? We also look ahead to the holiday weekend, which should have a lovely second half.

Warm February impact on freezes

The weather Houston is experiencing this week is more characteristic of mid-April than February, with temperatures running 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Looking ahead to the next 10 or so days, we have a few modest fronts in store, but nothing that will bring temperatures close to freezing again. So is that it for freezes here?

After the hard freeze in January I’m guessing that your garden may look like something of a nightmare. It’s tempting to think about going in and doing some work. And I’m not here to tell you it won’t freeze again in Houston. My gut tells me that, for the urban core of Houston and areas closer to the coast, the city will not freeze again. But today is only February 10. We can get hard freezes throughout the month of February, historically, and a light freeze any time in March.

So yes, it may not freeze again this winter. I would go so far as to say it probably won’t. But am I tearing up my garden? Not yet.

Tuesday

Today will be similar to Monday, with a warm southerly flow and high temperatures generally in the upper 70s. However with a little more moisture available, I expect skies to be partly to mostly cloudy this afternoon. Winds will get a little frisky this afternoon, perhaps gusting up to about 20 mph from the south. Lows tonight will drop to around 60 degrees in Houston.

Wednesday

Our weather on Wednesday is looking a little more interesting as a disturbance moves into the area. There is now about a 30 percent chance of showers (mostly light), likely during the afternoon hours. Skies will be partly sunny otherwise, with highs again in the upper 70s. On Wednesday afternoon a nose of drier air at the surface will attempt to move into the region from the northwest. I don’t think this drier and slightly cooler air will make it down to the coast, but I could see it pushing down to the Interstate 69/Highway 59 corridor by Wednesday evening or early Thursday. This leaves some uncertainty with lows on Wednesday night. I think the coast remains in the 60s, but some inland areas could drop into the 50s for a few hours on Thursday morning.

Thursday and Friday

The front’s effect, if you feel it, will be short-lived. Both Thursday and Friday will see highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s, with partly to mostly sunny skies. Lows will be back in the lower 60s for pretty much the entire area.

Saturday

The first half of the weekend will start out warm, with another day likely in the upper 70s. However we are likely to see widespread showers (and maybe a few thunderstorms, but nothing severe) on Saturday ahead of a front that should move through sometime during the afternoon or evening hours. The most likely time for showers is during the afternoon, but I’m not ruling out any time on Saturday night now. I’m going to continue to spitball rain accumulations of 0.25 to 0.75 for the area, but let’s put those in pencil for now, rather than writing them confidently in ink. Lows on Saturday night will drop into the 50s.

Sunday

This looks like an exceptional day, with sunny skies and a high near 70 degrees. My only concern at this point is winds, which could be gusty from the north at about 20 mph. But my hope would be that that die down somewhat during the afternoon hours. Sunday night into Monday morning looks to be the coolest night of the period, with lows falling to perhaps 50 degrees in Houston, with cooler conditions for outlying areas.

Next week

Monday—a holiday for many in honor of our presidents—should also be a rather pleasant day. Expect highs in the low- to mid-70s, with low humidity and light winds. Lows on Monday night should also drop into the 50s. After that we look to be warmer again for the remainder of the week, probably with highs in the upper 70s to 80 degrees, and overnight lows around 60 degrees. Another modest front is possible toward the end of next week. We’ll just have to wait and see.

In brief: In today’s post we briefly revisit this past weekend’s stunning weather, and look forward to when we might see similar conditions. Mostly, however, this coming week will see slightly warmer weather with modestly higher humidity.

A wonderful weekend

We complain a lot about the weather in Houston, and justifiably so I believe. But every now and then you get a spectacular weekend, which we did on Saturday and Sunday. Mrs. Berger and I had a lovely walk around the Houston Arboretum on Sunday afternoon, and there were times when I just stopped and said, “It feels so pleasant outside today.” Conditions this weekend will be mostly on the mild side, but with dewpoints around 60 degrees we will be a tad on the humid side of things. A front will arrive by this weekend, and although Saturday may see some rain showers, next Sunday may again be one of those fantastic weather days in Houston. We’ll see.

Monday

We are fully in a pattern with a pronounced onshore flow at this point, and we are going to see persistent southerly flow all week. This will present several changes to our weather. First of all, temperatures on Monday, and for the rest of the week, are generally going to be in the upper 70s. Some locations may hit 80 degrees. Skies will be partly sunny. And our nights will be warmer, with lows generally in the lower 60s. With the influx of moisture from the Gulf, and temperatures falling to dewpoint levels, we will see healthy chances of sea fog developing during the overnight hours, and persisting into the morning hours. Not all areas will see fog all week, but the threat will remain.

Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

Not much will change through the middle of the week: expect highs mostly in the upper 70s, partly sunny skies, modestly humid air, and mild nights with the potential for fog developing. We might see a slight chance of showers on Tuesday or Wednesday night, but I’m not particularly bullish.

Saturday

We’ll start to see some rain chances creep into the forecast on Friday night in response to an approaching disturbance. Rain chances will peak on Saturday, probably above 50 percent for most locations. As for accumulations it’s too early to say much with confidence, but a lot of places will probably pick up between 0.25 and 0.75 inch. Highs Saturday should be in the mid-70s, but this will depend on the arrival of a surface front. For now I’ll guess late afternoon or evening. Lows on Saturday night probably will drop into the 50s.

Sunday

As noted above, this looks to be the pick of the litter in terms of weather for the upcoming period. Highs probably will be in the vicinity of 70 degrees, with sunny skies and lower humidity, but for now those details must remain on the fuzzy side of things.

Next week

After a couple of cooler nights (Sunday night into Monday morning may get into the 40s) most of next week looks pretty mild as well. There’s no strong signal for rain showers, and I’d bet we’re back mostly in the 70s for daytime highs.

In brief: Dang nice, Houston.

Today through Sunday

This would be something of an unseasonably warm weekend anytime it occurs in winter, and to some it would be considered quite nice. After the chill of the last couple weeks, this weekend will probably feel nice to almost all. Sunshine, temps in the 70s (maybe 80?), and generally low humidity will continue.

Note how much cooler it is at the coast, with Galveston likely staying below 70 degrees. Water temperatures near the coast are in the mid-50s, which has converted the coastal Gulf into a localized air conditioning unit.

These will rebound quickly over the next week, but the combo of cold water and warm air may produce fog by Monday or Tuesday, and it will allow the island to be significantly cooler (10-15 degrees) than inland locations.

Next week

Our warmest days look to be Monday through Wednesday. Eric paid homage to the 70s yesterday, but it may be the 80s that we speak of on a couple days next week (and perhaps today). Depending on what model ensemble you choose, there’s a 20 to 40 percent chance we do it on Wednesday.

We should see shower chances infiltrate the picture beginning Tuesday however, and a weak-ish cold front looks to sneak in just after that. But it appears any cooldown will be fairly short lived, and it may be back to the 70s or 80s after a couple cool days off.

Drought update

Eric discussed the rain situation earlier this week. The latest drought update was released on Thursday and shows a small expansion of drought.

Keep in mind that this does not include the rain we saw on Tuesday (the report ends at 7 AM Tuesday). And some places saw a fair bit of helpful rain. We’ll have to see if we can cash in next week with our couple of chances. As nice as this weekend is, we probably need a couple days of soaking rain to help us out right now. If you follow weather folks on social media, you’re probably beginning to see chatter about a developing El Niño in the tropical Pacific as we head toward spring. Historically, that can skew the odds in favor of a wetter spring here in Texas, but we’re still a good way off before that would kick into gear. Something for us to keep tabs on though.

In brief: Our forecast is fairly straightforward for the next 10 days, with most every day having high temperatures in the 70s. So we’re having a little fun today by paying homage to the music from that era.

That 70s weather

After today Houston appears likely to experience a string of days with temperatures in the 70s, and our weather will enter something of a Goldilocks zone—not too hot, not too cold. As a result, we thought we’d mix things up today by adding a splash of 70s hit songs to our forecast. So as you head into the weekend, be sure and Take it Easy.

Thursday

If you’re waiting for the 70s era to kick off in terms of temperatures, today’s a day for simply Stayin’ Alive. That’s because high temperatures won’t get into the 70s, but rather will settle into the low- to mid-60s for highs. But there won’t be that chilly wind we saw on Wednesday, and as a result it should feel a little warmer and more Happy outside. Lows tonight will be warmer as well, likely only briefly falling below 50 degrees as the airmass over our region moderates.

Friday

As Rocky Mountain High pressure builds across Texas, this will be a mild, sunny day with high temperatures in the low-70s. Winds will be from the west at about 10 mph. Lows on Friday night will drop to around 50 degrees in Houston.

Saturday

This will be just about a perfect day, with highs in the mid-70s, sunny skies, low humidity, and light winds. This is the weather Dreams are made of.

Sunday

This will be mostly a Blue (sky) Sunday. However, the southerly flow becomes a little more pronounced, we will probably see a few more clouds. Still, this will be a pleasant day with modest southerly winds. I recommend spending a lot of time outside, and that you Don’t Stop ’Til You Get Enough.

Monday and Tuesday

The 70s party continues next week. However we probably will see more clouds on Monday, and perhaps some scattered showers on Tuesday when there Ain’t No Sunshine. With dewpoints rising to about 60 degrees it will feel a little more humid, but it will still feel fairly dry when you Imagine what it feels like outside during summer in Houston.

Later next week

At some point next week we may have to say Goodbye Yellow Brick Road, and leave the 70s. It may happen on Wednesday or Thursday, when a few locations reach 80 degrees, or possibly next weekend if a front drops our daily highs into the 60s. Or it may not happen for awhile longer. Regardless our weather truly looks mild for the next 10 days or so and none of us will need be Riders on the Storm. Enjoy!