In brief: Very nice spring weather, albeit more typical for May will continue in Houston through the weekend. A slight change toward better rain chances remains in the cards next week, but there are reasons to have some healthy skepticism.

Despite somewhat underwhelming maximum temperatures so far in this period of warm weather, Houston remains on track to basically lock in a top 5 warmest March on record and the warmest March since 2020, if not longer. Yesterday, Bush only hit 84°, while Hobby managed 82°. Let’s take a run at the forecast.

Today and Thursday

It would appear that we’ll be seeing more of the same today and tomorrow. It should be a touch hotter on both days, with highs likely topping off somewhere in the 85-to-87-degree range. Originally, it looked like Thursday could be perhaps a skosh cooler but that appears to be an imperceptible difference at this point. Other than that, expect sun and a few fair weather clouds after some patchy morning fog or low clouds. *Roofcast:* Based on this forecast, the roof will probably be closed for a 3 PM game on Opening Day at Daikin Park. Odds will be higher that it will open for night games through the weekend.

Friday

Our best chance at approaching 90 degrees continues to look as if it will come on Friday. I still think we’ll come up just short. Yesterday I said to put 8 bucks on 89° and a dollar each on 88 and 90+. Today, I might say to put 7 dollars on 89°, 2 dollars on 88°, and a buck on 90+. Once again it should be sunny.

Overnight lows will remain fairly comfortable, generally in the 60s with humidity that isn’t too terribly high. In fact, as you can see from the precipitable water anomaly map above, the air mass is actually running a bit drier than normal on Friday morning, meaning humidity should be kept in check. Overall, conditions in our neck of the woods have not been too uncomfortable or exceptionally dry either over the last week or so, which feels like a bit of a rarity. But it’s what sometimes makes early spring the best season here in Houston, even when it’s hotter than normal.

The weekend

Saturday will be something of an interesting temperature forecast. I would still say much of the area sees upper-70s for highs, but if the air is just dry enough, we may bust hotter, with highs in the low-80s in spots.

Either way, it looks like a lovely day. Sunday should be much the same with morning lows in the 50s or low-60s and highs in the low-80s and sunshine.

Next week

We continue to see modeling suggest we go to a slightly more active, wetter weather pattern across Texas. Whether or not that actually translates to significant rain for the Houston area remains to be seen. But if you look at what the upper-level weather pattern is expected to do next week, this big ridge that has been anchored in either the West or Plains since last week will finally shoot eastward, leaving Texas in a weaker transition zone between ridge and trough.

This should allow for some Pacific moisture to infiltrate Mexico and Texas. And if we don’t see organized thunderstorms per se, we will probably see a scattering of typical spring storms across the state. Hopefully that nets us a couple inches of much-needed rain, but time will tell. One thing that could wreck that is if the high pressure in the East flexes too much, meaning we just end up on the western edge of it rather than on the outside of it. Also, as noted yesterday, in long-term droughts, these things have a habit of going “poof” so I’m keeping my expectations low for now.

In brief: A lot of rinse and repeat for Houston the rest of this week, with temperatures hotter today and tomorrow and then perhaps the hottest of the year so far on Friday. But more pleasant weather arrives for the weekend.

Happy Tuesday, y’all! Matt here, stepping in for Eric for a couple days this week so he can focus on space matters. Eric was kind enough to preview our summer thoughts yesterday while we experience our own sorta summer preview here this week. That said, we only hit 84 degrees yesterday, which was not exactly terrible.

Today & tomorrow

And today, we’ll probably do a couple hotter than that. And on Wednesday? Just a little hotter. Look for solid mid-80s today and mid to upper-80s tomorrow. Morning fog in spots will give way to ample sunshine and a few fair-weather clouds. If you squint, you may make out a few raindrops later today, particularly around Galveston Bay. It’s too early in the year for sea breeze storm season (or “rain o’clock” as I lovingly refer to it), but models are showing a few light showers later.

Thursday & Friday

Temperatures on Thursday might actually slip a degree or so, into the mid-80s. Will the roof be open on Opening Day at Daikin Park? Place your bets!

For the UH game and Big Ten reunion Thursday night, it looks delightful, with temperatures in the 70s.

Now, Friday is when we may see our hottest temperatures of the year so far. With a cool front approaching, a compressed air mass, and upper level temperatures well above normal for March, it stands to reason that 90 degrees is attainable. If I were a $10 Cowboy like Charley Crockett, I would place $8 on 89° and a dollar each on 88 and 90 degrees. Could we do hotter? Absolutely. But I would say those odds are fairly low right now. Either way, it will be quite hot for late March.

Weekend

A healthy but moisture-starved cool front will push through the area on Saturday. You will notice a change in things Saturday afternoon, with highs in the upper-70s, slightly lower humidity and northeasterly breeze. For now, I don’t expect much in the way of showers with the front, but I wouldn’t say we’d entirely rule one or two out.

Then on Sunday it looks like we inch back into the lower 80s after a refreshing morning with lows in the 50s. Lots of events going on around the area this weekend, and the weather looks cooperative right now. P.S.: Don’t forget the sunscreen!

Hints of change next week?

It’s too soon to start discussing specifics, but it does appear that the pattern will begin to change a little next week. Eric alluded to this yesterday. We should expect to see additional rain chances enter the picture by midweek, and the 8-to-14-day rainfall outlook is currently medium confidence above normal.

You always have to use some caution when you’re in long-term drought like we are right now; often times these wetter pattern change forecasts in the models end up being mirages more than anything. We’ll place a bookmark in this once more and check back again tomorrow.

In brief: In today’s post we take a look at the likely development of El Niño, and what that means for this summer, as well as next year. We also report on a forecast this week that will bring a lot of sunshine to Houston before a weak front arrives this weekend.

El Niño looms, and what it means for summer

It is becoming increasingly likely that a warmer phase of the tropical Pacific Ocean, known as El Niño, is likely to develop later this year, possibly by the summer. Although localized to the Pacific Ocean, the periodic warming and cooling there has global impacts, including providing upward pressure on global temperatures (The Climate Brink has a good overview of this). The latest modeling suggests that the El Niño likely to peak later this year will be a rather strong one, potentially one of the two strongest experienced during the last 40 years.

At this point you might be expecting me to say something like, with such a strong El Niño the United States will probably experience its warmest summer on record. And while that is possible, I would point out that the response from global surface temperatures typically lags the peak of El Niño by a couple of months, and right now I don’t expect it to peak until the end of this year. So the summer of 2027? Yeah, probably brutally hot.

But what about our forthcoming summer? Temperatures running about six degrees above normal for March 2026 do not give me the warm and fuzzies about what is to come. I would note that NOAA’s recently updated outlook predicted above normal temperatures for this summer, but not abnormally so.

In reality I expect we will see one of our warmest summer ever. My basis for this prediction is pretty simple. Based on average temperature (which is, simply, a daytime high and low temperature, divided by two) the last four summers have all ranked among the 10 warmest summers on record in Houston. The torrid summer of 2023 set the mark, at 88.0 degrees, but last summer was not far behind, ranking sixth overall at 86.0 degrees.

Monday

If you’re out hunting for meteorites to the northwest of Harris County today (NASA has a detailed map of where to look) you can expect fine weather to do so. We will see mostly cloudy skies this morning give way to more sunny conditions, with highs likely reaching the mid-80s for most locations. Winds this afternoon will reach about 10 mph, with gusts up to 15 mph. With dewpoints around 60 degrees it’s modestly humid, but not oppressively so. I have been finding recent evenings to be quite pleasant outside. Low temperatures tonight will fall into the mid-60s for most parts of the area, a little warmer near the coast and a little cooler further inland.

Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

There will be a little variation for the rest of the week. Some days (Tuesday, perhaps) may have a few more clouds. But for the most part these will be mostly sunny days with highs in the vicinity of the mid- to upper-80s, modest humidity, and lows in the mid-60s. It will feel more like early May than late March, but that’s not to say it won’t be fairly nice outside. Rain chances are basically nil, but I wouldn’t entirely rule out a sprinkle on Tuesday. Fog is also likely to return during the overnight and early morning hours.

Saturday and Sunday

A weak front will likely push into the Houston metro area on Friday night or Saturday morning. This is unlikely to bring any precipitation with it (more on that in a moment) but it should usher in some slightly cooler weather. Look for highs this weekend to likely top out in the 70s, with lows perhaps in the 50s. Regardless, skies should remain mostly sunny. If you’re planning to attend the Houston Open golf tournament this week and weekend you really have no weather concerns aside from warmer-than-normal temperatures on Thursday and Friday, and the need for sunscreen on all four days.

Next week

Next week does begin to look a little more promising for rainfall. Obviously we’re days and days away, but most of our model guidance points to increasing rain chances by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. So it’s something we’ll monitor, but not about which I’m prepared to make any promises yet.

In brief: Houston is going to be doing some heavy flirting with 90 degrees beginning today and continuing into next week. That’s it. That’s the summary.

If you are Very Online™ or even if you’re not, surely you’ve seen someone post their memories of the 90s in the latest viral trend. Well, we may once again find out what we were like in the 90s for the first sustained period since October.

Today through Monday

Not a lot to say here. There could be some late night or early morning fog each day, but otherwise it looks clear, with nothing worse than some passing high clouds at times. Temperatures will warm into the mid or upper-80s today, upper 80s to near 90 tomorrow and Sunday, and perhaps near 90 again Monday with a slight chance of slightly drier air.

Houston Rodeo Forecast

Hard to believe that we’re coming to the end of the Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo this weekend. Temperatures should fall rather quickly from the 80s into the 70s this evening and Sunday evening. It will be hot tomorrow, with upper-80s to near 90 degrees so if you are attending, just keep that in mind and make sure to stay hydrated, preferably with water if you’ll be doing any of the outside attractions.

Tuesday through Thursday

Even if we manage to cool down some on Sunday night or Monday, we will quickly bounce back well into the 80s next week. And yes, we will flirt with a chance of 90 degrees every day it appears. Blind Melon’s “No Rain” (1992) is a nice companion soundtrack next week.

Later next week

Can we get a cold front next weekend? That’s the question. There are strong signs within model data that we may see a brief cooldown next Saturday and Sunday (think highs in the 70s or low 80s). Right now, it does not appear that any kind of cold front will come with meaningful rainfall but we may at least get to enjoy some slightly less May-like weather for a few days. Stay tuned.