In brief: In this morning’s post we recap what was a rather wet weekend for large parts of the Houston region. A mid-week front will bring us another chance of showers followed by a bit of drier and cooler weather. The weekend looks sunny and warm.

A soggy weekend

As expected, the Houston area received widely varying amounts of rainfall this weekend, particularly from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. While some areas such as Katy only saw a smattering of precipitation, one only need drive along I-10 to the other side of Houston to find totals of 4 to 6 inches. These east-side showers definitely over-performed our predictions.

There was a time, on Thursday evening and Friday morning, when Matt and I debated whether to issue a Stage 1 flood alert for the area this weekend. In retrospect, we probably should have, because these storms produced some decent street flooding in central Houston and areas to the north and east of downtown.

Although these showers were most certainly a nuisance for people out and about Saturday night, large chunks of Houston received 1 or more inches of much-needed rainfall as we are getting deeper into spring. We used “mostly” in the headline because some areas got a little too much rain, and other areas west of Houston not enough.

I just wanted to include a zoomed-in view (below) of areas hardest hit by rains this weekend, including Highway 90 and the area near George Bush Intercontinental Airport. These were the heaviest rains so far in our region in 2026.

Monday

The weak cold front that moved into the region this weekend is now lifting back to the north, and so we will be left a warm and humid day today. (Also, the fog is back, and will be possible again tonight and Tuesday night). High temperatures today will generally be in the low- to mid-80s, with winds picking up from the south this afternoon and perhaps gusting up to 20 mph. Scattered, mostly light showers will be possible this afternoon, with perhaps 20 percent coverage. Skies will be mostly cloudy.

Rodeo forecast

Any showers that do develop today should be fading by the late afternoon or early evening hours, about the time most people start showing up for the Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo. Accordingly, I’m not too concerned about any showers before, during or after the show. Temperatures will be in the low 70s this evening and not fall much, with overnight lows in Houston likely to settle out at 70 degrees for most locations.

Tuesday

In terms of fog and temperatures, Tuesday will be similar to Monday. And while our skies will continue to be predominantly cloudy, I don’t expect much, if any rain on Tuesday. Our southerly winds will be more pronounced, however, with gusts up to 25 mph during the afternoon. Expect another warm and muggy night, with lows only falling to around 70 degrees again.

Wednesday

This will be another warm day, but a cold front is likely to push into the area during the afternoon and evening. This will bring a healthy chance of showers and possibly some thunderstorms during this timeframe. However storms are no sure thing, as I could see a scenario in which a line of storms forms north of Houston, but is broken (or even non-existent) in the Houston area. We’ll see. In any case some additional showers are likely on Wednesday afternoon and evening (rain accumulations of 0.25 to 0.75 inch maybe). Please note there is some uncertainty in this forecast as storms could develop further to the south, over Houston. Drier air will follow later on Wednesday night.

Thursday

This will be a breezy, spring-like day with a high of around 70 degrees, low humidity, and sunny skies. Lows on Thursday night will drop to around 50 degrees in Houston, with cooler conditions for inland areas.

Friday

This will be a pleasant day as well, with dry-ish air and highs likely in the upper 70s to 80 degrees. Skies will be sunny. Lows on Friday night will only drop to about 60 degrees as the onshore flow resumes.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend looks sunny and warm, with highs in the low- to mid-80s. Dewpoints will be in the lower 60s so while it will feel somewhat humid, I don’t expect it to be really muggy like our weather of late.

Next week

Another front will probably arrive early next week, pushing our overnight lows back down into the mid-50s, closer to where they should be this time of year. At this distance the overall likelihood of storms with this front looks low, but we’ll see.

In brief: We interrupt your weekend to bring you an update on impacts from a cool front that will approach the Houston region and stall out. The primary threat is severe thunderstorms later today and on Sunday, although not everyone will see inclement weather.

There is a lot going on in the metro region this weekend, from big events at the Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo to the World Baseball Classic to much, much more. We’re going to need to be weather aware.

In the big picture a cool front move into the region, where it will clash with very warm and moist air. Where this front ultimately stalls will serve as a focus for showers along with potentially strong thunderstorms and heavy rain. However this will be rather location based, so whereas some areas may see 2 or more inches of rain, others will see considerably less. Some uncertainty remains with regard to the details, but generally here is what I expect to happen.

For now the radar is quiet, and we expect it to remain so in Houston throughout the morning hours. During the afternoon we may see some scattered showers across Houston, but nothing serious. However off to our northwest, in the vicinity of College Station, a more organized line of storms is likely to develop around mid-afternoon. This mass of storms is likely to threaten areas within the greater Houston region along and north of Interstate 10 during the evening hours. There is the potential for strong winds and hail with some of these thunderstorms should they turn severe. This threat should persist until around midnight or so.

If you’re headed to the Rodeo on Saturday here’s what I can say. First, the best chance of severe weather should be elsewhere this evening. However, we cannot rule out some showers and thunderstorms during the evening in the vicinity of NRG Stadium. So take care, but at this point I would not cancel plans.

After midnight the focus of storms is likely to turn closer to the coast, particularly areas including Brazoria, Galveston, and Chambers counties—I’m thinking areas nearer to Galveston Bay. For these coastal areas rainfall will be more likely during the pre-dawn hours on Sunday and during the daytime. (Rain chances for areas north of I-10 will not be zero on Sunday, but for now they look to be considerably lower). On Sunday the dynamics for severe weather are less favorable, but I still expect to see some pockets of heavy rainfall within stronger storm cells.

In terms of temperatures expect warm and muggy conditions on Saturday, with slightly cooler temperatures in the 70s on Sunday for most of the region. Rain chances diminish some on Monday.

If there are significant changes to the forecast we will update accordingly.

In brief: In this sponsored post, we share some energy tips from Reliant, a long-time partner of Space City Weather who helps keep the lights on here so we can keep on doing what we’re doing.

It has been a warm start to the year. February, in particularly, was sultry for the end of winter. The month finished with an average temperature of 63.8 degrees, which ranks as the fourth warmest February on record in Houston (February 2017 ranks highest, at 66.4 degrees). March has started out very warm as well, with an average temperature of 72.9 degrees, which is nearly 12 degrees above normal.

Given the warm start to the year, and that today is World Energy Efficiency Day, we thought it might be a good time for a reminder that smart energy choices now can help keep homes comfortable and bills in check as summer approaches. To mark the day, Reliant is sharing simple, cost‑conscious tips to help manage energy use more efficiently this spring heading into summer.

Home improvements

With warmer days already settling in, now is a smart time to tackle quick home fixes that can improve efficiency and help limit cooling costs as temperatures continue to rise.

• Adding more insulation to your home can be among the most cost-effective improvements you can make. Make sure every part of your house is insulated and add more if needed; spray foam insulation is great for getting into all the nooks and crannies.
• Inspect ductwork for loose connections or damaged insulation as leaks can waste up to 30 percent of cooled air.
• Schedule a spring tune‑up to ensure the AC system is ready for high demand.
• Replace or clean air filters every 30-60 days, as a clean filter can reduce AC energy consumption by up to 15 percent. 

Streamline your energy use

As AC use ramps up earlier in the season, small, smart energy choices can help keep homes comfortable while managing monthly bills.

• Follow the 4×4 rule by raising your air conditioning temperature 4 degrees if you’ll be away from home 4 hours or more.
• Do laundry more efficiently by using cold water and air drying bedding and clothing. 
• Run ceiling fans counterclockwise to push cool air downward. Use fans first before turning on the AC. 
• Grill outdoors when it’s nice out. Cooking indoors raises the heat, requiring the AC to use more electricity.
• Open windows at night to let cool air in, then close them in the morning to trap the cool air.

In brief: Saturday’s forecast in Houston has some perplexity to it in terms of when and where storms will occur, but we’re leaning toward a quieter first half of the day, with storm chances increasing Saturday evening and overnight. Hail is possible in a couple of the strongest storms. Sunday could see locally strong storms with heavy downpours. Don’t forget to “spring forward” Saturday night!

We’ve got some more active weather in the cards for this weekend but nothing that’s too scary. It’s mostly going to serve as a reminder that we still get storms here sometimes!

Today

No real concerns today, as we’re likely to see clouds, some sun, and highs in the 80s. There could be a passing pocket of light rain or a shower. Even a rogue thunderclap can’t be entirely ruled out this afternoon, especially north and west of Houston. Continue to be mindful of dense, erratic sea fog near the coast. We may see that break up some today and return tonight.

Saturday and Sunday

The forecast gets busier for this weekend. While an isolated shower or storm can’t be ruled out overnight, especially off to the northwest of Houston, it doesn’t appear much will occur before tomorrow morning. However, on Saturday, we expect showers and thunderstorms to develop later in the afternoon or evening. The entire area away from the coast is under a slight risk (2/5) for severe thunderstorms on Saturday.

Based on what I can tell from forecast models and the NWS discussions, the primary driver for the slight risk is potential for isolated large hail. Storms could still carry lightning obviously or isolated strong wind gusts, but from a “severe” perspective, hail seems to be driving the risk. That said, we do not expect hail all over the city…I just want to make that clear. Any large hail would probably be confined to a few neighborhoods only in the strongest storms.

But what about timing? Well, the European model has insisted for days now that a squall line of storms would push through Houston in the afternoon hours. Now that we’re in range of higher resolution model guidance, the picture is a lot murkier. Most high-res models keep most of the area storm free during the daylight hours Saturday. You can compared the Euro to the HRRR model above. However, by later Saturday evening, that may be when you’ve got the chance for stronger storms in a few spots, especially north and west of Houston. So there’s some inherent uncertainty tomorrow, but for the most part I don’t think you’ll have too many issues in the morning or early afternoon. Storm chances will perk up in the later afternoon and evening hours, especially north and west of Houston I think. We’ll update you on this tomorrow morning.

For Sunday, right now I would say scattered thunderstorms throughout the day, with perhaps a focus north of I-10 in the first half of the day and south of I-10 in the second half of the day. Locally strong storms are possible, and one or two could put down some significant rainfall in a short amount of time, so be mindful of street flooding in areas that see the most persistent storms Sunday.

Rodeo forecast

If you’re headed to the Rodeo this weekend, you’ve got few concerns tonight for Lizzo. It looks good. There will be that chance of a thunderstorm on Saturday, especially upon exiting Dwight Yoakam. Just be aware of the potential, but as noted above, storms will at least be possible. Temps will be in the low to mid-70s each evening. Sunday may be the highest odds of showers and thunderstorms, along with locally heavy rain. Even if it isn’t raining when you leave, if you’re headed to see Forrest Frank, you’ll want the raincoat and a little extra time to get to and from NRG Stadium just in case. Temps should be in the mid to upper-70s.

Early next week

Monday and Tuesday look sufficiently quiet right now with nothing worse than a rogue shower. Highs will be in the 80s and lows in the upper 60s and low-70s.

Wednesday

After those quieter days Monday and Tuesday, it does look like we get a quick but potent storm system in the area on Wednesday. It’s too soon to speak with much confidence about this system or its potential, but early indications are that there will be at least some strong to perhaps severe storms, especially the first half of Wednesday, especially north of I-10. The SPC has highlighted the north side of the city in Wednesday’s severe weather risk, which is akin to saying a slight risk (2/5) this far out.

More to come on this next week.