In brief: In today’s post we have some good news, and some bad news. Let’s start with the good. There are many, many outdoor activities this weekend in the Houston region, from sporting events to public gatherings. All of these should have fine weather. The bad news is that a drought that has been building all winter is starting to become acute.

A deepening drought

We’ve been talking about drying soils a lot here because the state of Texas, particularly the eastern half of the state, has had such a dry winter and start to spring. At the beginning of October, last year, just 23.6 percent of Texas was in a ‘moderate’ drought, and only 13 percent in a ‘severe’ drought. Those numbers today, respectively, are 84.5 and 55.5 percent.

For the greater Houston area the problem has been building this winter, but until recently was not acute. As days lengthen and warm up, that is now changing, and areas of ‘severe’ and an even worse category, ‘extreme’ drought now encroaching upon Harris County. Much of Chambers, Waller, and Fort Bend counties now find themselves in an ‘extreme’ drought.

I am concerned about this because the next six months or so represents the warmest period of the year, with the Sun reaching a much higher angle in the sky, meaning that droughts develop much more quickly. Typically we see springtime rains in Houston (and don’t look now, but we’re only a couple of months from the opening of the Atlantic hurricane season), but for now the overall forecast shows no drought busters. No one wants flooding, of course. But we could use some rain events in the coming weeks.

Friday

Highs today should reach the mid- to upper-80s across the Houston area with mostly sunny skies. You know the drill as our weather has not changed much over the last week. It will be another mild evening. However conditions should begin to change tonight, likely around or after midnight, as winds shift to come from the north-northeast and bring in much drier air. As a result I expect temperatures to drop into the upper 50s by Saturday morning, with noticeably lower humidity.

Saturday

Saturday morning may see gusty winds up to about 25 mph, but these should start to fade by the afternoon hours. As for high temperatures, this will depend on the extent of any lingering cloud cover as skies will eventually turn fairly sunny. I expect highs will get into the mid- to upper-70s with low humidity. Saturday evening looks exceptional, and then most areas outside of the urban core should drop into the mid- to upper-50s on Saturday night. We know there are a ton, just a ton of outdoor activities from major sporting events to marches and parades this weekend, and the weather just looks exceptionally fine. (And if you took my long-standing advice for outdoor weddings in Houston, which is to hold them during the last two weeks of March, well done).

Sunday

Just as quickly as the front came in on Saturday, it’s likely to ease out on Sunday as the onshore flow resumes. Highs should reach around 80 degrees with mostly sunny skies and rising humidity levels. Lows on Sunday night will only fall into the low- to mid-60s.

Next week

We’re back into the mid-80s for much of next week, but there will be some overall changes to the forecast as high pressure recedes somewhat. At some point we’ll start to see partly to mostly cloudy days, and our nights will turn a little warmer and muggier (i.e. overnight lows drop to 70 degrees in Houston, rather than 65). By Wednesday or Thursday we’ll also finally start to see some slight rain chances enter the forecast.

As we get into next weekend, and remember Easter Sunday is then, rain chances may go up further. It’s still too fuzzy for confidence, but my sense is that we’ll see a stronger front trying to move through our region in 8 to 10 days, and that this will bring with it a healthier chance of more widespread rain. But whether this happens on Easter Sunday, or the day after (or heck, even not at all) remains impossible to say at this point.

For now, please enjoy what looks to be a fine weekend weather-wise in Houston.

In brief: In today’s post we discuss an exciting, upcoming space launch that we all should be rooting for. As for our weather, our warm conditions will turn slightly cooler this weekend before warming up again. And rain chances, maybe they return about a week from now.

Putting the “space” in Space City Weather

I want to thank Matt for covering the last couple of days while I was in Washington D.C. for NASA’s Ignition event. There, the space agency rolled out an exciting new plan for space exploration over the next decade, with the central achievement being the establishment of a lunar base. Houston’s Johnson Space Center, not to mention local companies such as Intuitive Machines, Axiom Space and others, are a big part of all of this. I’ve written about space for a long time, and this is the first time I think NASA has set both a meaningful goal in deep space and laid solid plans to go about achieving it.

Everyone should also be excited about the launch of Artemis II next week, likely on Wednesday evening from Florida’s Kennedy Space Center. Thousands of Houston people have worked hard toward preparing for this lunar flight during which four incredible astronauts—Reid Wiseman, Victor Glover, Christina Koch, and Jeremy Hansen (most of whom are Space City Weather readers)—will fly around the Moon for the first time in more than five decades. Theirs is a bold mission, testing new hardware, and it will be super fun to follow their adventures. The early weather for next week in Florida looks fine for a launch, but we’ll see. I’ll be traveling for that as well, so there may be some minor disruptions in posting here.

The bottom line is that we, as a city, should be proud of what’s happening in space, and Houston’s important ongoing role. Your meteorologists certainly are.

Thursday

Our weather forecast remains much as Matt has described it over the last couple of days. We’re going to see continued warm weather for a couple of days before a slight cooldown this weekend. Highs today will generally be in the mid-80s in Houston, with slightly warmer conditions for inland areas. Skies will transition from partly cloudy this morning to mostly sunny this afternoon. Winds will be from the south at about 10 mph, with stronger gusts this evening. Lows tonight will fall into the mid-60s.

Friday

Expect more of the same, with daytime temperatures possibly even a degree or two warmer. Lows on Friday night will again be in the 60s, although they will drop a little further by Saturday morning. Why? Because overnight we will see some moderately drier air moving in from the northeast. This will significantly lower our humidity for Saturday, and somewhat for Sunday.

Saturday

High temperatures will range from the upper 70s to lower 80s, with lower humidity. Winds will be from the northeast at 10 to 15 mph with higher gusts. Some locations may briefly drop into the 50s overnight on Saturday night, but it’s not like temperatures are really going to bottom out.

Sunday

By Sunday we should already begin to feel the effects of returning air from offshore, so look for high temperatures in the mid-80s, sunny skies, and moderate but rising humidity levels. Lows on Sunday night will be in the mid-60s.

Next week

This warmer pattern will continue through midweek before that persistent ridge of high pressure that has been anchored to our west finally begins to break down. This will allow for the return of some modest rain chances, which may improve even further as we head toward next weekend. I don’t want to make any promises we can’t meet, but I’ll just say we could really use some rain and the odds may start to turn in our favor a little. At the same time I’m also cognizant of the Easter holiday about 10 days from now. When we have more clarity on this forecast we will, of course, share it with you.

In brief: Very nice spring weather, albeit more typical for May will continue in Houston through the weekend. A slight change toward better rain chances remains in the cards next week, but there are reasons to have some healthy skepticism.

Despite somewhat underwhelming maximum temperatures so far in this period of warm weather, Houston remains on track to basically lock in a top 5 warmest March on record and the warmest March since 2020, if not longer. Yesterday, Bush only hit 84°, while Hobby managed 82°. Let’s take a run at the forecast.

Today and Thursday

It would appear that we’ll be seeing more of the same today and tomorrow. It should be a touch hotter on both days, with highs likely topping off somewhere in the 85-to-87-degree range. Originally, it looked like Thursday could be perhaps a skosh cooler but that appears to be an imperceptible difference at this point. Other than that, expect sun and a few fair weather clouds after some patchy morning fog or low clouds. *Roofcast:* Based on this forecast, the roof will probably be closed for a 3 PM game on Opening Day at Daikin Park. Odds will be higher that it will open for night games through the weekend.

Friday

Our best chance at approaching 90 degrees continues to look as if it will come on Friday. I still think we’ll come up just short. Yesterday I said to put 8 bucks on 89° and a dollar each on 88 and 90+. Today, I might say to put 7 dollars on 89°, 2 dollars on 88°, and a buck on 90+. Once again it should be sunny.

Overnight lows will remain fairly comfortable, generally in the 60s with humidity that isn’t too terribly high. In fact, as you can see from the precipitable water anomaly map above, the air mass is actually running a bit drier than normal on Friday morning, meaning humidity should be kept in check. Overall, conditions in our neck of the woods have not been too uncomfortable or exceptionally dry either over the last week or so, which feels like a bit of a rarity. But it’s what sometimes makes early spring the best season here in Houston, even when it’s hotter than normal.

The weekend

Saturday will be something of an interesting temperature forecast. I would still say much of the area sees upper-70s for highs, but if the air is just dry enough, we may bust hotter, with highs in the low-80s in spots.

Either way, it looks like a lovely day. Sunday should be much the same with morning lows in the 50s or low-60s and highs in the low-80s and sunshine.

Next week

We continue to see modeling suggest we go to a slightly more active, wetter weather pattern across Texas. Whether or not that actually translates to significant rain for the Houston area remains to be seen. But if you look at what the upper-level weather pattern is expected to do next week, this big ridge that has been anchored in either the West or Plains since last week will finally shoot eastward, leaving Texas in a weaker transition zone between ridge and trough.

This should allow for some Pacific moisture to infiltrate Mexico and Texas. And if we don’t see organized thunderstorms per se, we will probably see a scattering of typical spring storms across the state. Hopefully that nets us a couple inches of much-needed rain, but time will tell. One thing that could wreck that is if the high pressure in the East flexes too much, meaning we just end up on the western edge of it rather than on the outside of it. Also, as noted yesterday, in long-term droughts, these things have a habit of going “poof” so I’m keeping my expectations low for now.

In brief: A lot of rinse and repeat for Houston the rest of this week, with temperatures hotter today and tomorrow and then perhaps the hottest of the year so far on Friday. But more pleasant weather arrives for the weekend.

Happy Tuesday, y’all! Matt here, stepping in for Eric for a couple days this week so he can focus on space matters. Eric was kind enough to preview our summer thoughts yesterday while we experience our own sorta summer preview here this week. That said, we only hit 84 degrees yesterday, which was not exactly terrible.

Today & tomorrow

And today, we’ll probably do a couple hotter than that. And on Wednesday? Just a little hotter. Look for solid mid-80s today and mid to upper-80s tomorrow. Morning fog in spots will give way to ample sunshine and a few fair-weather clouds. If you squint, you may make out a few raindrops later today, particularly around Galveston Bay. It’s too early in the year for sea breeze storm season (or “rain o’clock” as I lovingly refer to it), but models are showing a few light showers later.

Thursday & Friday

Temperatures on Thursday might actually slip a degree or so, into the mid-80s. Will the roof be open on Opening Day at Daikin Park? Place your bets!

For the UH game and Big Ten reunion Thursday night, it looks delightful, with temperatures in the 70s.

Now, Friday is when we may see our hottest temperatures of the year so far. With a cool front approaching, a compressed air mass, and upper level temperatures well above normal for March, it stands to reason that 90 degrees is attainable. If I were a $10 Cowboy like Charley Crockett, I would place $8 on 89° and a dollar each on 88 and 90 degrees. Could we do hotter? Absolutely. But I would say those odds are fairly low right now. Either way, it will be quite hot for late March.

Weekend

A healthy but moisture-starved cool front will push through the area on Saturday. You will notice a change in things Saturday afternoon, with highs in the upper-70s, slightly lower humidity and northeasterly breeze. For now, I don’t expect much in the way of showers with the front, but I wouldn’t say we’d entirely rule one or two out.

Then on Sunday it looks like we inch back into the lower 80s after a refreshing morning with lows in the 50s. Lots of events going on around the area this weekend, and the weather looks cooperative right now. P.S.: Don’t forget the sunscreen!

Hints of change next week?

It’s too soon to start discussing specifics, but it does appear that the pattern will begin to change a little next week. Eric alluded to this yesterday. We should expect to see additional rain chances enter the picture by midweek, and the 8-to-14-day rainfall outlook is currently medium confidence above normal.

You always have to use some caution when you’re in long-term drought like we are right now; often times these wetter pattern change forecasts in the models end up being mirages more than anything. We’ll place a bookmark in this once more and check back again tomorrow.