In brief: Happy Valentine’s Day, everyone! As we’ve been discussing for several days now, Houston will face the threat of storms this evening, and we just wanted to jump into your timeline today with an update on what to expect, and when.

Saturday afternoon

We’ve seen some scattered, mostly light showers this morning, and those will persist on and off through at least the early afternoon hours. Generally we will see highs in the 70s with very humid air. Skies will remain mostly cloudy. By late this afternoon a line of showers and thunderstorms will start to approach the Houston region from the northwest, likely reaching College Station between 4 pm and 6 pm CT.

Saturday evening

I realize that a lot of people have plans this evening, and that’s great. But we are going to ask you to please be weather aware. Our latest high-resolution modeling suggests this line of storms will strengthen as it nears the coast. I expect the storms to reach a line from The Woodlands to Katy around 5 to 7 pm, central Houston shortly thereafter, and move off the coast by 8 to 10 pm. The line will be moving through progressively, but because the showers may be intense most locations probably will pick up on the order of 1 inch of rain.

How about other severe threats? NOAA has raised the threat of severe weather for the Houston region to “slight risk.” Effectively this means there will be the possibility of damaging winds (with the main line of storms as they blow through) along with small hail. A few brief tornadoes are also possible, but I want to emphasize that right now this does not have the classic setup for severe weather.

Anyway, the weather at your location in southeast Houston will turn gnarly for about an hour this evening, give or take. If you take cover as the system blows through, you can just as easily move about safely once it has passed. Conditions will calm down quickly this evening after the storms, with temperatures of about 60 degrees, falling to the upper 50s by Sunday morning.

Sunday

By sunrise on Sunday we should see some stronger northerly winds, with gusts up to about 30 mph or so as drier air moves in. These winds should start to back off some by Sunday afternoon. Expect clearing skies, with a high of around 70 degrees. Lows on Sunday night will drop into the mid-50s in Houston, with cooler conditions for outlying areas.

In brief: We expect some showers and thunderstorms on Saturday in Houston, a couple of which could be on the stronger side. Outside of that, we have nice weather to close the weekend, and another warming trend in store next week.

Got Valentine’s (or anti-Valentine’s) Day plans on Saturday? Be sure to include an umbrella as part of your fancy attire. We’ve got the details on some storms this weekend.

Today

Keep your eyes open for fog this morning. It’s a prevalent pest across the southeast half of the area, and it’s locally dense in spots. It will slowly lift through morning, but fog may cling to Galveston Island or around the bay for much of Friday. Otherwise, it’ll be warm and humid today with highs in the 70s to near 80 inland and cooler at the coast.

Saturday

Through midday Saturday, all looks well. A few sprinkles or showers, as well as some continued fog is a possibility but otherwise it’ll be fine. Round one of showers or a few thunderstorms may arrive around mid to late afternoon. None of these are expected to be significant. It’s the second round that arrives in the evening, probably between 6 and 10 PM or so that may have some noisy, stronger storms.

The entire region is carpeted in a marginal risk, level 1/5, for severe weather tomorrow, which generally means lower-end coverage of severe storms. Many locations will hear thunder, but only one or two may see a severe storm with gusty winds. Storms should exit the coast around or before midnight, ending any severe threat, The chance of a severe storm may be highest north of I-10 tomorrow.

In addition, some locally heavy rain is likely tomorrow, with a few spots perhaps seeing 2 inches of rain, while others see a quarter inch. Basically, have an umbrella, and if you hear thunder, retreat to a safe indoor location.

Otherwise, look for clouds, some sun, and some fog with highs in the 70s.

Sunday & Washington’s Birthday

We should clear out and have a picture-perfect Sunday and Presidents’ Day Monday. Sunday looks glorious with sunshine and highs in the low-70s, although a bit on the breezy side at times with north winds gusting to 20 to 25 mph or so. Monday morning will start in the 40s and 50s, warming into the 70s again with pleasant humidity and sunshine.

Rest of next week

To be honest, next week looks a bit like this week, with temps warming up again into the 80s probably, along with slowly building humidity. We will probably see our next front sometime near next weekend or just beyond. Timing is suspect right now. That next front could have a tinge more punch of cooler air behind it, but nothing like a freeze or anything.

In brief: In today’s post we provide some timing details on what to expect with Saturday’s front, which should bring a line of storms along with it. We also outline what looks to be an exceptional second half of the holiday weekend.

Timing of storms on Saturday

If you’re trying to make plans for Valentine’s Day, I want to tell you what I think will happen that day in terms of weather (I can make no predictions on the love side of the equation!) This forecast is still a bit tentative, but our confidence is increasing. An upper-level system will approach Houston, eventually dragging a cold front into the area. In terms of timing, Saturday morning should see a few light, scattered showers. At some point during the afternoon, activity may become a little stronger and more widespread.

However it now appears likely that a robust line of showers and thunderstorms could move through during the evening hours. My best guess is that this line moves through the Houston region between 6 pm and midnight on Saturday, with the slight possibility of some severe thunderstorms. This line may drop 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain, but again rain totals will vary. For now I don’t anticipate flooding concerns, but if we get some over-performing or slowing storms, there may be some briefly flooded streets. Matt and I will keep a close eye on this for you.

Thursday

A weak, and dying front has stalled over Houston, dropping most of the area into the upper 50s this morning. It will lift back north today, leaving us with a sunny day and highs in the upper 70s. Winds will be light, from the southeast. Lows tonight will drop to around 60 degrees. Fog will remain a possibility during the overnight hours through Saturday morning.

Friday

This will be a partly sunny and mild day, with high temperatures in the mid-70s. Lows on Friday night will be a few degrees warmer than Thursday night, likely in the low 60s.

Saturday

As noted above, we expect showers and thunderstorms to pass through the area on Saturday, likely during the evening hours. Highs during the daytime will reach the mid-70s, with overnight lows dropping into the upper 50s, as drier air from the front arrives after midnight.

Sunday

This will be a splendid day, with highs likely in the low 70s, sunny skies, and much drier air. Winds will be gusty from the north during the morning hours, but probably will moderate after that. Lows on Sunday night will drop into the low 50s in Houston, with cooler conditions further inland.

Monday

The President’s Day holiday looks splendid as well, with highs in the low- to mid-70s, dry air, sunshine, and light winds. Expect another night in the 50s.

Rest of next week

Most of the rest of next week looks mild, with highs near 80 degrees, lows near 60, and partly sunny skies. Some sort of front may arrive toward the end of next week, but the details are fuzzy.

In brief: In today’s update we discuss a weak front that will work its way into Houston today. We also look ahead to a soggy Valentine’s Day, and then ample sunshine for the remainder of the holiday weekend.

Valentine’s Day outlook

Well, this won’t be the frigid holiday weekend that Houston experienced five years ago, that’s for sure. However, Saturday and Saturday evening do look pretty soggy across the region as a disturbance moves into the region, preceding a cold front. Rain chances are nearly 100 percent on Valentine’s Day, although most of this should fall as light to moderate rain showers. It won’t be constant, and it probably won’t be severe, but if you’re planning anything romantic outdoors I would definitely have some fall back plans. Most areas will likely pick up between 0.5 and 1 inch of rain, although as usual totals will vary widely. Rains should end sometime on Saturday evening or early Sunday.

Wednesday

We are seeing some mostly light showers north and northwest of the city this morning (i.e. in locations such as The Woodlands). This rain is associated with a weak front that is slowly moving into the area. This front is not particularly strong, and it is fading. But I expect it to bring some drier air into the region today and tonight, probably at least down to the Highway 59/Interstate 69 corridor, and possibly even closer to the coast. High temperatures today will still reach the upper 70s for most locations, with partly sunny skies. Lows tonight probably will drop into the 50s for inland areas with the drier air, but I am less certain about temperatures near the coast.

Thursday and Friday

These days both should be partly sunny and warm, with temperatures in the upper 70s. Winds will be generally light, from the south. Lows on Thursday night will drop to around 60, while Friday night will be a few degrees warmer.

Saturday

As noted above, Valentine’s Day is looking fairly wet, with showers likely and perhaps a few thunderstorms. Highs will probably reach the mid-70s, with lows on Saturday night in the upper 50s.

Sunday and Monday

For many people this will be a three-day weekend, with President’s Day on Monday. Luckily, both of these days will be really nice with sunny skies and highs in the low 70s. Sunday morning looks breezy, but things should settle down some by Sunday afternoon, hopefully. Lows on Sunday night will drop to around 50 degrees in Houston, with cooler conditions for outlying areas.

Rest of next week

Most of the rest of next week will see warmer temperatures in the upper 70s to 80 degrees, with nighttime lows generally around 60 degrees. Another weak front may arrive by Thursday or Friday of next week, but there is no clear signal in the models either way. As noted in the title of today’s update, spring-like weather is here to stay for awhile even though we’re still in the middle of February.