The Texas hurricane season is probably over

Posted by Eric Berger at 6:50 AM

Every year I struggle with whether to write this post—because there’s always a chance it will be wrong. However, the fact is after this date the chance of a hurricane striking Texas is vanishingly low, about 1-in-50 for any given year. I’ll discuss this more below, after the forecast.

Monday through Wednesday

Houston’s late summer-like pattern will persist over the area for the next few days, with hot days and highs of around 90 degrees, steamy nights in the 70s, and scattered showers. A few thunderstorms could be pretty strong, but most of Houston will see moderate, little, or no rainfall over the next three days. Area-wide accumulations will probably be measured in tenths of an inch, if that.

Thursday and Friday

Warmer weather will hang around as a cold front backs into the area from the northeast. These northeasterly winds should arrive by sometime on Friday, but we may not feel the drier or moderately cooler air until Friday night or Saturday morning. Until then we can expect more warm days and muggy nights, with slight rain chances.

Dewpoints early on Saturday morning show drier air “backdooring” into Houston. (Weather Bell)

Saturday and Sunday

Houston is going to have a great weekend to end September and begin October. It’s not going to be cold by any stretch, but the air will be drier and that will make a big difference. Expect mostly sunny skies with highs most likely in the mid-80s. Overnight temperatures should fall to the mid-60s for inland areas, with warmer conditions near the coast.

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As expected, Thursday produced some heavy showers across the metro area, with as much as 3 inches of rain falling in parts of Clear Lake. Fortunately, the deeper moisture associated with these heavy rains should now move off to the west—giving Houston some drier weather in the days ahead.

Friday and Saturday

A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible, but for the most part the combination of lower atmospheric moisture levels and sinking air should reduce rain chances both days. You may still want to take an umbrella with you for a stray storm, but if you’re planning an outdoor activity chances are you’ll be fine. Mostly, it’s just going to be hot, with highs of around 90 degrees, and humid.

Precipitable water levels on Friday and Saturday are forecast to be comfortably below 2.0 inches, which should limit rain showers. (Weather Bell)

Sunday and Monday

Moisture levels creep back up during the second half of the weekend, but again, the atmospheric dynamics do not appear to be such that we’re going to see widespread showers like on Thursday. Instead, expect scattered storms, with most of Houston seeing moderate amounts or no rainfall. Temperatures remain warm, with highs near 90 degrees.

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Houston has about another week or 10 days of summer-like weather before we finally transition into a fall-like weather pattern. Aside from the heat and scattered thunderstorms, there are no major weather concerns during that time. Meanwhile, a day after Hurricane Maria made landfall in Puerto Rico, we are only beginning to come to grips with the storm’s devastation there.

Thursday

Much like we saw on Wednesday, when nearly 3 inches of rain fell east of Houston near Mont Belvieu, we have an unstable atmosphere above Houston today capable of producing heavy rain showers. Although most areas may see at least some light rain (measured in tenths of an inch) today, the heavier thunderstorms should be scattered and therefore I don’t anticipate any widespread street flooding. But we’ll be watching conditions this afternoon just in case.

High resolution models show some scattered, heavy thunderstorms across Houston later today. (Weather Bell)

Friday and Saturday

As high pressure builds over the area a bit, rain chances should fall back to about 25 percent, or less, each day. Look for warm, mostly sunny days with highs in the low 90s, and a chance of afternoon showers. The end of summer may be nigh, but it will still be with us this weekend.

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Late-summer blahs to persist in Houston for awhile

Posted by Eric Berger at 6:39 AM

Tuesday offered a quiet day across the Houston region, and our weather for the rest of the week will probably be more or less the same, with warm days and the potential for some scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday and Thursday

In the absence of high pressure, and moderately high moisture levels, we’ll see partly sunny skies on both days with a chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms. This will probably be the case where a few isolated areas get one-half or more inch of rain, while the rest of the metro area receives light rainfall, or none at all. Either way, any rain should die off around sunset, and should present no flooding issues. Look for highs around 90 degrees.

Rainfall accumulation forecast for now through the weekend. (NOAA/Weather Bell)

Friday and Saturday

Not much change heading into the weekend, but as higher pressure edges closer to the region on Friday, I’d expect mostly sunny skies and highs of around 90 degrees—with only isolated showers. We can’t rule out rain on either of these days, but I would not expect it. These should be good days for the beach or other outdoor activities for which you don’t mind a little bit of late-summer heat.

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