In brief: We interrupt your weekend to bring you an update on impacts from a cool front that will approach the Houston region and stall out. The primary threat is severe thunderstorms later today and on Sunday, although not everyone will see inclement weather.

There is a lot going on in the metro region this weekend, from big events at the Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo to the World Baseball Classic to much, much more. We’re going to need to be weather aware.

In the big picture a cool front move into the region, where it will clash with very warm and moist air. Where this front ultimately stalls will serve as a focus for showers along with potentially strong thunderstorms and heavy rain. However this will be rather location based, so whereas some areas may see 2 or more inches of rain, others will see considerably less. Some uncertainty remains with regard to the details, but generally here is what I expect to happen.

For now the radar is quiet, and we expect it to remain so in Houston throughout the morning hours. During the afternoon we may see some scattered showers across Houston, but nothing serious. However off to our northwest, in the vicinity of College Station, a more organized line of storms is likely to develop around mid-afternoon. This mass of storms is likely to threaten areas within the greater Houston region along and north of Interstate 10 during the evening hours. There is the potential for strong winds and hail with some of these thunderstorms should they turn severe. This threat should persist until around midnight or so.

If you’re headed to the Rodeo on Saturday here’s what I can say. First, the best chance of severe weather should be elsewhere this evening. However, we cannot rule out some showers and thunderstorms during the evening in the vicinity of NRG Stadium. So take care, but at this point I would not cancel plans.

After midnight the focus of storms is likely to turn closer to the coast, particularly areas including Brazoria, Galveston, and Chambers counties—I’m thinking areas nearer to Galveston Bay. For these coastal areas rainfall will be more likely during the pre-dawn hours on Sunday and during the daytime. (Rain chances for areas north of I-10 will not be zero on Sunday, but for now they look to be considerably lower). On Sunday the dynamics for severe weather are less favorable, but I still expect to see some pockets of heavy rainfall within stronger storm cells.

In terms of temperatures expect warm and muggy conditions on Saturday, with slightly cooler temperatures in the 70s on Sunday for most of the region. Rain chances diminish some on Monday.

If there are significant changes to the forecast we will update accordingly.

In brief: In this sponsored post, we share some energy tips from Reliant, a long-time partner of Space City Weather who helps keep the lights on here so we can keep on doing what we’re doing.

It has been a warm start to the year. February, in particularly, was sultry for the end of winter. The month finished with an average temperature of 63.8 degrees, which ranks as the fourth warmest February on record in Houston (February 2017 ranks highest, at 66.4 degrees). March has started out very warm as well, with an average temperature of 72.9 degrees, which is nearly 12 degrees above normal.

Given the warm start to the year, and that today is World Energy Efficiency Day, we thought it might be a good time for a reminder that smart energy choices now can help keep homes comfortable and bills in check as summer approaches. To mark the day, Reliant is sharing simple, cost‑conscious tips to help manage energy use more efficiently this spring heading into summer.

Home improvements

With warmer days already settling in, now is a smart time to tackle quick home fixes that can improve efficiency and help limit cooling costs as temperatures continue to rise.

• Adding more insulation to your home can be among the most cost-effective improvements you can make. Make sure every part of your house is insulated and add more if needed; spray foam insulation is great for getting into all the nooks and crannies.
• Inspect ductwork for loose connections or damaged insulation as leaks can waste up to 30 percent of cooled air.
• Schedule a spring tune‑up to ensure the AC system is ready for high demand.
• Replace or clean air filters every 30-60 days, as a clean filter can reduce AC energy consumption by up to 15 percent. 

Streamline your energy use

As AC use ramps up earlier in the season, small, smart energy choices can help keep homes comfortable while managing monthly bills.

• Follow the 4×4 rule by raising your air conditioning temperature 4 degrees if you’ll be away from home 4 hours or more.
• Do laundry more efficiently by using cold water and air drying bedding and clothing. 
• Run ceiling fans counterclockwise to push cool air downward. Use fans first before turning on the AC. 
• Grill outdoors when it’s nice out. Cooking indoors raises the heat, requiring the AC to use more electricity.
• Open windows at night to let cool air in, then close them in the morning to trap the cool air.

In brief: Saturday’s forecast in Houston has some perplexity to it in terms of when and where storms will occur, but we’re leaning toward a quieter first half of the day, with storm chances increasing Saturday evening and overnight. Hail is possible in a couple of the strongest storms. Sunday could see locally strong storms with heavy downpours. Don’t forget to “spring forward” Saturday night!

We’ve got some more active weather in the cards for this weekend but nothing that’s too scary. It’s mostly going to serve as a reminder that we still get storms here sometimes!

Today

No real concerns today, as we’re likely to see clouds, some sun, and highs in the 80s. There could be a passing pocket of light rain or a shower. Even a rogue thunderclap can’t be entirely ruled out this afternoon, especially north and west of Houston. Continue to be mindful of dense, erratic sea fog near the coast. We may see that break up some today and return tonight.

Saturday and Sunday

The forecast gets busier for this weekend. While an isolated shower or storm can’t be ruled out overnight, especially off to the northwest of Houston, it doesn’t appear much will occur before tomorrow morning. However, on Saturday, we expect showers and thunderstorms to develop later in the afternoon or evening. The entire area away from the coast is under a slight risk (2/5) for severe thunderstorms on Saturday.

Based on what I can tell from forecast models and the NWS discussions, the primary driver for the slight risk is potential for isolated large hail. Storms could still carry lightning obviously or isolated strong wind gusts, but from a “severe” perspective, hail seems to be driving the risk. That said, we do not expect hail all over the city…I just want to make that clear. Any large hail would probably be confined to a few neighborhoods only in the strongest storms.

But what about timing? Well, the European model has insisted for days now that a squall line of storms would push through Houston in the afternoon hours. Now that we’re in range of higher resolution model guidance, the picture is a lot murkier. Most high-res models keep most of the area storm free during the daylight hours Saturday. You can compared the Euro to the HRRR model above. However, by later Saturday evening, that may be when you’ve got the chance for stronger storms in a few spots, especially north and west of Houston. So there’s some inherent uncertainty tomorrow, but for the most part I don’t think you’ll have too many issues in the morning or early afternoon. Storm chances will perk up in the later afternoon and evening hours, especially north and west of Houston I think. We’ll update you on this tomorrow morning.

For Sunday, right now I would say scattered thunderstorms throughout the day, with perhaps a focus north of I-10 in the first half of the day and south of I-10 in the second half of the day. Locally strong storms are possible, and one or two could put down some significant rainfall in a short amount of time, so be mindful of street flooding in areas that see the most persistent storms Sunday.

Rodeo forecast

If you’re headed to the Rodeo this weekend, you’ve got few concerns tonight for Lizzo. It looks good. There will be that chance of a thunderstorm on Saturday, especially upon exiting Dwight Yoakam. Just be aware of the potential, but as noted above, storms will at least be possible. Temps will be in the low to mid-70s each evening. Sunday may be the highest odds of showers and thunderstorms, along with locally heavy rain. Even if it isn’t raining when you leave, if you’re headed to see Forrest Frank, you’ll want the raincoat and a little extra time to get to and from NRG Stadium just in case. Temps should be in the mid to upper-70s.

Early next week

Monday and Tuesday look sufficiently quiet right now with nothing worse than a rogue shower. Highs will be in the 80s and lows in the upper 60s and low-70s.

Wednesday

After those quieter days Monday and Tuesday, it does look like we get a quick but potent storm system in the area on Wednesday. It’s too soon to speak with much confidence about this system or its potential, but early indications are that there will be at least some strong to perhaps severe storms, especially the first half of Wednesday, especially north of I-10. The SPC has highlighted the north side of the city in Wednesday’s severe weather risk, which is akin to saying a slight risk (2/5) this far out.

More to come on this next week.

In brief: In today’s post we discuss the recent and ongoing sea fog as well as our warmer than usual temperatures. Then our attention turns to the likelihood of storms this weekend as a front sags into Houston and brings much needed rain.

But first, some chat about fog on the blog

Are you tired of the fog yet? I know some readers like the eerie quality or semblance of “stillness” that fog brings. But if you need to be out and about late at night or early in the morning, it can be a real hazard. We’ve been seeing frequent fog near the coast this week, and this “sea fog” is due to the warmer air moving over cooler surface waters near the shore. Unfortunately, with the warmer temperatures we are likely to see through the weekend, sea fog will remain a persistent threat during the late evenings through mid-mornings for some coastal locations.

Thursday

Cloudy skies this morning will give way to partly sunny skies this afternoon, with high temperatures likely topping out in the low- to mid-80s. This will depend on the extent of sunshine at your location. We did see a few very light sprinkles on Wednesday in parts of Houston, but I feel like, overall, our chances for rain today will be pretty close to zero. Humidity levels will remain rather high for this time of year.

Rodeo forecast

It’s going to be fairly warm this evening, with temperatures in the upper 70s. The other defining feature that rodeo goers will experience is gusty southerly winds, perhaps up to 25 mph, although these will die down as the evening progresses. Temperatures after the show will be the in the 70s, only falling to around 70 degrees by early Friday morning.

Friday

This day will be rather similar to Thursday, with two possible changes. First of all, those southerly winds might be even a little bit stronger, gusting up to possibly 30 mph from the south during the afternoon. The other difference is that there is perhaps a 30 percent chance of light showers during the daytime or evening. Lows, again, will be very warm for early March.

Saturday and Sunday

So will the weekend bring a rain-o-rama? It’s still a little difficult to pin down precise details, but roughly speaking here’s what I think will happen. Saturday will be another warm and humid day like those preceding it. There will be a better chance of light daytime showers, perhaps on the order of 30 percent. But I don’t expect these to be significant or disruptive.

On Saturday afternoon or early evening a (dying) front is going to approach and potentially move into the Houston metro area. I expect there to be a goodly number showers and thunderstorms with this front. Whether these storms make it all the way to the coast will depend on where the front stalls, but at this point I think there is a decent chance of everyone seeing some rain. I’m hopeful, for the purposes of our spring vegetation, that we pick up 0.5 to 2 inches this weekend, with higher isolated totals, but again some uncertainty remains.

I mentioned thunderstorms and there is slight risk for some severe weather with this front as it moves in and stalls, and again I think the most likely timing for this is probably Saturday evening. So bear that in mind if you’re planning to be out and about.

Sunday, for much of the region, should be a few degrees cooler due to widespread cloud cover, the aforementioned front, and ongoing rain chances during the day. The potential for thunderstorms and severe weather should be diminished however. The bottom line is that from Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning we’re going to need to be mindful of the possibility of thunderstorms and heavy rainfall, but I’m not saying everyone will see these conditions.

Next week

Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday of next week will see ongoing warm temperatures, with highs in the low 80s and mostly cloudy skies. There will be a modest chance of daily rain chances. A front should arrive some time on Wednesday to bring us clearer skies and drier air and probably a few nights in the 50s. Two weeks into March it may finally feel like March.