So far, August has been mostly a hot and dry month. Average temperatures are running 3 to 4 degrees above “normal” levels, with most of the area at a rainfall deficit. The good news—and good is definitely a relative term for August—is that this pattern should moderate slightly for the last 10 days or so of the month. This means that, with one or two exceptions, we are probably finished with 100-degree days. And hopefully rain chances will be a little bit better.

Monday

Conditions will be muggy and partly sunny today, with high temperatures generally climbing into the mid- to upper-90s across the region. High-resolution models suggest that scattered, but locally strong thunderstorms should pop up today from around 2pm through sunset across the region. Chances may be best roughly along the Interstate 10 corridor and closer to the coast, but I don’t have too much confidence in locations. Overnight lows will remain warm, around 80 degrees for most of the metro area.

Tuesday

A similar day to Monday, albeit with perhaps slightly less shower and thunderstorm coverage during the afternoon and early evening hours.

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Thursday broke the streak. We fell one degree short of 100° officially, after 7 straight days of 101°+ in Houston. We don’t think we will hit 100° again for a bit, though I suppose one could sneak in here at some point over the next few days under the right setup. Regardless of all that, it continues to look hot and unpleasant for the foreseeable future, but at least we can mention a chance of rain almost every day.

Today

Radar this morning is already showing some showers and storms, mainly along the coast or east of I-45.

The storms were slowly drifting to the north. These should gradually fade this morning, and we’ll expect sun and clouds with high temperatures aiming for the upper-90s once more. Air quality today will be fairly poor, so if you fall into “sensitive groups” on days with high ozone levels, you will want to take it easy and stay indoors when you can. A few additional showers are possible this afternoon with daytime heating, but like yesterday, consider yourself lucky if you see one.

Weekend

Both Saturday and Sunday look pretty standard for what we normally expect in the back half of August. Look for a mix of sun and clouds on both days. Saturday will see isolated to scattered showers or storms in the afternoon. Sunday will probably see slightly fewer showers. Rain chances will be highest as you go to the east of Houston. So Baytown likely has higher odds of seeing a shower than Katy this weekend.

High temperatures will likely top off in the mid- to upper-90s, while morning lows will remain steamy at around 80 degrees.

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Not every part of Houston received rain on Wednesday evening—some parts of Katy, Kingwood, and Galveston saw a lot of lightning, but precious little precipitation. But for much of the metro area, the rain did come come, in sheets, falling onto dry ground and streets so hot after seven days of 100-degree heat that they steamed afterward. For me, it brought to mind a classic Steve Earle song, The Rain Came Down, about a farmer desperate for rain, with lyrics such as, And the rain came down, Like an angel come down from above. It did feel pretty amazing.

Thursday

For all but the immediate coast, temperatures have fallen this morning into the mid- to upper-70s, which is cooler than most of the last week. With partly sunny skies, we’re still going to see a warm day today, with highs likely reaching into the upper 90s. (It is mid-August, after all). The focus for showers and thunderstorms today will likely occur closer to the coast. High-resolution models indicate the potential for active weather to the southwest of Houston, in Fort Bend and Wharton counties, as well as to the east in the Beaumont area. But with that said, I think rain chances in the Houston metro area itself are probably about 40 percent this afternoon and evening.

Friday

This should be a bit drier of a day, with perhaps only 30 percent rain chances and mostly sunny skies. It will remain quite hot, with highs in the upper 90s, and a few inland areas possibly seeing 100 degrees. Read More…

Good morning. Just a quick note before today’s post—I wanted to say thank you to the 250 or so people who came out to the Houston Museum of Natural Science on Tuesday evening to hear Matt and I talk about the site, weather, hurricanes, and more. It was wonderful to meet so many of you, especially the two lovely young women who read this site to their mom every morning for practice—I’ve forgotten your names, and I’m truly sorry—but I promise to keep everything PG!

Wednesday

Change is coming slowly to Houston, but we’re still going to see another very hot day. The city has now recorded six consecutive days of 101-degree temperatures, and I don’t quite think we’ll get there today. But a heat advisory remains in effect, and we’ll at least get into the upper-90s if not 100 degrees.

Nevertheless, change is on the way, with high pressure finally beginning to back off to the west. This should allow for a fairly healthy—40 or 50 percent?—chance of showers late this afternoon and evening as the sea breeze migrates inland and collides with a disturbed atmosphere moving south. For the most part accumulations will be measured in the tenths of an inch, but a few heavy thunderstorms may drop more. Lows tonight will still be in the 80s.

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