In brief: With this post we’ve invited Paige Klobucnik, an atmospheric sciences student at the University of Houston, to write about Houston’s recent cold spell and better explain what happen. Matt and I would like to bring some new voices on to the site, from time to time, so let us know what you think. -Eric

Prior to our recent Arctic outbreaks, this winter had seen a mix of afternoon high temperatures in the 70s and even 80s, with a sprinkle of freezing mornings that led to some chilly days. So how did we end up with such a cold period after a mild winter? Let’s go into detail about what caused these super-low temperatures, and what might be coming next.

Essentially, Arctic air had the opportunity to finally move further south into North America this winter. There is this big mass of cold air that sits over the North Pole called the polar vortex, which is held in place by a ring of fast-moving winds called the polar jet stream. When there are rapid temperature changes in the Arctic, along with a number of other factors, we see waves start to form in the polar jet stream. As this happens the polar vortex is disrupted, causing polar air to spill southward. This produced the rapid temperature drop experienced by the region during the last 10 days of January.

These cold spells can be intimidating since our local infrastructure is not exactly designed for harsh winter weather. Fortunately, air temperatures here remained at or just above freezing while there was abundant precipitation. Areas further inland experienced ice and snow, which happens more frequently in Texas for locations that don’t have the moderating influence from the Gulf.

Now that we’re warming up a bit as we head into February, what about the rest of winter? The answer, my friend, is blowin’ in the wind. In the big picture, there are several different patterns that our atmosphere can fall into depending on the strength of trade winds that run to the west near the equator. These are El Niño and La Niña, which represent two opposing patterns that alter the climate we experience.

The best way to explain why our winter season has mostly been on the milder side is that we are experiencing a La Niña pattern. Below, I show how it looks when the conditions in the Pacific Ocean are normal. That is, not falling to either an El Niño and La Niña; trade winds blow from the east along the equator, moving warm water from South America to Asia. When this warm water moves, colder water from below moves up to displace what has been shifted. This is called upwelling as water shifts to fill any gaps.

Now when we see a La Niña pattern, like we are presently experiencing, the trade winds are even stronger, which means more warm water is being moved, and more cold water is being displaced to fill it in (more upwelling). For us in North America this means that our side of the Pacific is colder than normal, which can affect the whole continent’s climate.

How does this actually affect it? Well, I mentioned the polar jet stream that runs along the northern United States (the river of fast-moving winds that separates cold polar air from warmer tropical air), which influences temperature and helps drive precipitation across the states. When the trade winds strengthen and cold water upwells, it pushes this jet stream further north, which means that cold air is kind of stuck above us in the southern United States, leaving us with milder temps. And as for precipitation, it also keeps us on the dry side, as the jet stream can’t quite reach us to regularly deliver us storm systems.

But as we saw with the recent incursions of Arctic air, there is always a possibility of this jet stream moving further south and bringing us a taste of winter weather. It’s like this: La Niña is pushing the jet stream up, which in turn is fighting with the polar vortex and dragging it down. During the second half of January, the polar vortex won.

For the rest of winter I would expect milder temperatures to return, but remaining a bit on the colder side of what we observed entering the new year. However, given the fickle nature of La Niña I would not rule out an additional light freeze or two later this month.

In brief: In today’s post we review how rains on Tuesday evening helped with a drought that has persisted since late fall in our area. We also look ahead to two cooler nights before an exceptional weekend arrives in Houston.

Simmering drought

One of the quiet but persistent stories of the last several months in our region has been the development of a drought, particularly just to the south of the city. At one point about a month ago some of these areas reached ‘extreme’ levels of soil dryness. However the precipitation during the second half of January, in association with the strongest of the Arctic fronts, helped put a dent in things.

Even so, as of last week, large swathes of our region were in a ‘severe’ drought, and most of the rest of the region remained in a ‘moderate’ drought. That’s why I was pleased to see showers on Tuesday, and a line of showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday evening, over-perform expectations a little. During the last day or so most of the region picked up 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rainfall, with the higher totals tending to hit the driest areas. It now will not rain for awhile, so yesterday’s showers were a welcome thing for us.

Wednesday

Temperatures are about 50 degrees across the region this morning, and despite sunny skies we’re only going to warm up to about 60 degrees. With a fairly brisk northerly wind, gusting up to 25 mph at times, it’s going to feel chilly outside. Tonight will bring our coldest temperatures for at least the next week, with lows falling to about 40 in urban parts of the area, and upper 30s for outlying areas. Still, I think everyone will remain a little above freezing.

Thursday

This will be a another sunny day, with temperatures in the low 60s. However with only light winds, it will feel ‘warmer’ outside. Lows on Thursday night will only drop into the upper 40s.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

The weekend looks exceptional, with highs in the low- to mid-70s and plenty of sunshine. Only by Sunday afternoon may we start to see the incursion of a few clouds. Overnight lows will generally fall to around 50 degrees, with low humidity. Winds, generally will be light. Seriously, plan to get outdoors.

Next week

Most of next week looks to be pretty much the same day-to-day, with highs in the mid-70s and lows around 60 degrees. We probably will see some partly cloudy days and slight rain chances. But mostly, conditions will be mild. Some sort of front may arrive on Friday or Friday night, but I don’t expect sharply colder weather at this point.

In brief: In today’s post we discuss the end of a very cold period of weather in Houston, which will now turn warmer into mid-February. I’m continuing to get excited about conditions for this weekend, which look to be exceptional.

End of very cold weather

Over the last 10 days Houston has experienced sharply cold weather, with seven freezing nights and four nights with low temperatures in the 20s. This undoubtedly will be the coldest spell of the 2025-2026 winter season, and it is also equally clear that we are headed for much milder conditions into at least mid-February. A number of readers will want to know whether the region has recorded its final freeze of the winter, and it’s a valid question. The answer is maybe—but we simply cannot say anything definitive about this in early February. Let’s get to the end of this month and see where we are.

Tuesday

Temperatures have only fallen to about 60 degrees this morning, and the overall airmass is fairly humid. High temperatures today will reach about 70 degrees under mostly cloudy skies. We are going to see breezy southerly winds, with some gusty conditions this afternoon. We will also see some light, scattered showers throughout the day. A more organized (but likely broken) line of showers and thunderstorms may form north of Houston around sunset, and drop down through the city this evening. This will herald the arrival of a front that will move through tonight. Any lingering rains will end before sunrise, with temperatures dropping into the upper 40s late tonight.

Wednesday

A sunny and cooler day, with highs generally in the low 60s and somewhat gusty northerly winds. Lows on Wednesday night will drop to around 40 degrees in Houston, with slightly cooler conditions for inland areas. I’m pretty confident that even typically colder areas like Conroe will remain a few degrees above freezing, however.

Thursday

This will be another sunny day with high temperatures in the low 60s, although winds will be lighter. Lows on Thursday night should drop into the mid-40s.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

This looks to be a gorgeous weekend, with highs ranging from about 70 degrees on Friday to the mid-70s on Sunday. Overnight lows will generally be in the 50s, with fairly dry air. Skies will be mostly sunny throughout the period, with the possibility of slightly more sky cover by later on Sunday. Regardless, it looks to be a splendid weekend for outdoor activities.

Next week

Most of next week looks warmer, with highs in the 70s and lows around 60 degrees. We’ll probably see a few more clouds and some scattered shower chances, but nothing crazy. Some sort of a front may try to push through ahead of next weekend, but at this point it doesn’t look particularly cold. If you’re wondering how conditions are looking for the “snow bomb” reported by some social mediarologists on or around February 14, here’s the temperature outlook for that period.

That’s right, we can expect above normal temperatures.

In brief: In today’s post we discuss the rumors about a “snow bomb” hitting Houston around Valentine’s Day (you will be shocked to learn the rumors are not true). We also discuss our moderating temperatures this week, and what looks to be a splendid weekend ahead.

Gulf coast “snow bomb”

Matt and I began to receive some messages on Saturday morning about the potential for the greater Houston region to receive another Arctic blast around Valentine’s Day. The questions kept coming on Sunday, along the lines of, “rumors are circulating …” about the threat of a major snowfall in the region. We were scratching our heads because there were no valid indications of such an occurrence.

Nevertheless we did a little digging. It was pretty clear from the outset what precipitated the concerns. A single run of the GFS model, the 06z output on Saturday morning (publicly available about 5 am CT, usually) showed a ridiculous amount of snowfall across the Houston area, like two feet. It would set records. Such an event would be historic. But of course there was no real reason to believe a model output that was forecasting an event two weeks away. That is the “silly season” range of model output, and the US-based GFS model is notoriously bad with these kinds of things. And as one might expect, by the very next run, this snowfall was completely gone. Poof!

This, alone, would not have been enough to spark questions. But then my wife stumbled across this post on Facebook later on Saturday morning. Note that it contains a double dose of dumb because the “author” uses the “Houston, we have a problem” cliche.

This nonsense, therefore, came from a deadly duo in today’s day and age when it comes to weather information. First you need a single model run showing a long-range forecast more than 10 days out. Then you need a social mediarologist to spread the hype. It’s a pretty unstoppable combination. But as a consumer there are a couple of things you can do to combat this. First of all, check to see how far out the forecast is. If it’s 10 days or greater, be super wary. If it’s forecasting an extreme event, be super super wary. And if the post uses the #fblifestyle hashtag, you can have a good laugh because this is not a serious person.

Really, all you need to do is check Space City Weather. If there is a credible chance of a major winter storm in Houston, we’ll be talking about the possibility. We promise.

Monday

Temperatures this morning have bottomed out at about 40 degrees, and we are already seeing a southerly flow that will warm us up nicely this afternoon. Expect highs of about 70 degrees. We also will see increasing cloud cover as atmospheric moisture levels ramp up. As a result low temperatures tonight will only briefly drop below 60 degrees.

Tuesday

This will be a mostly cloudy and warm day, with high temperatures generally in the low 70s along with southerly winds. We also will see a chance of light showers during the daytime. By late afternoon, and during the evening hours, a front will approach the area and we may see a line of broken showers and a few thunderstorms. These will persist until around midnight or perhaps a bit later down by the coast. Rains will probably be hit or miss, with some locations picking up a trace of rain and other areas one-half inch or more. Temperatures will start falling after midnight.

Wednesday and Thursday

These will be fine, sunny days with highs in the low- to mid-60s and overnight lows in the low- to mid-40s. Wednesday may be a bit breezy.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

If you have outdoor plans scheduled for this weekend, you’re in lucky. We should see mostly sunny skies on Friday and Saturday, with a few clouds returning by Sunday. Highs will be in the low- to mid-70s through the weekend, with overnight lows in the 40s and 50s. It looks positively gorgeous for any outdoor activities.

Next week

The first half of next week looks to be on the warm-ish side, with highs in the mid-70s perhaps and lows in the upper 50s to about 60 degrees. Some kind of front may push through by around Thursday or so, to cool things off a bit, and bring a chance of rain. The front may drop overnight lows into the 40s, or it may not have that much oomph.

So what about the snow chances for Valentine’s Day? Well, perhaps if you’re traveling to Boston for the weekend.