The SWC Q&A: Late leaves, 7 a.m. please, AI complaints, city picking, allergies, no floods.

Time for yet another Q&A post, in which we answer your questions about area weather and Space City Weather itself. If you missed past Q&As, we keep an archive of them here. Submit your own questions via the Contact link on the blog’s home page, or post it to our Weather Talk topic on our Discourse forum.

Q. Every year for the past 20 odd years I’ve been raking leaves on my property in North Houston and this would normally stop by mid January. It’s mid February and maples and water oaks are shedding like crazy, not to mention that it seems like the drought made pines start dropping their needles like a month earlier. What is going on!?

A. First of all, I’ve noticed this phenomenon as well this winter, and have wondered the same thing. Second, I am not an arborist (although I do love trees). However, I do think the weather is involved here, and probably explains what has happened.

The only thing a pile of leaves is really good for.

Live oaks typically keep their leaves well into winter, as you note. Then, they finally drop their leaves just as new ones are ready to emerge. So why is it happening later this year?

I would go back to our very warm weather in December (especially the second half of the month), followed by similar conditions through the first three weeks of January. This led to a delayed drop. Then, I suspect the Arctic fronts in late January and early February were a shock, causing most of our trees to lose all of their leaves at once. Our region’s lingering drought may well have also played a role. When you’re done raking at your house, would you care to come to mine?

– Eric

Q. We appreciate and rely upon your succinct forecasting and reporting our weather. However, we are frustrated by your haphazard timing each morning. We need to have your forecast by 7 a.m. and some mornings we have it, but often we miss it.

A. The only thing a lot of people really need before 7 a.m. in the morning is coffee, but I take your point.

Time for coffee! (Digital Clock Maker)

Over the years the time I’ve posted on Space City Weather has varied based on the time I needed to get up and write a forecast before dropping one or both of my girls at school. That generally was before 7 a.m. However they’ve both graduated now, so there’s no forcing factor. Sometimes I “sleep in” until 6:30 a.m. or so, and this causes the post to be published later in the morning. There are also some days when the forecast is really complex, and I spend a lot of time trying to really understand things before writing a word.

But these are excuses, and in reality you are not the only person who has asked for this. So dear reader, I will commit to trying very hard to get the daily posts out by 7 a.m. There may be some mornings when I’m traveling for my day job, or when life happens. And I am not going to commit Matt to this deadline because he still has young kids.

But most days we’ll hit ‘publish’ by or before 7 a.m.

– Eric

Q. As a meteorologist, the usage of AI to make slop art is pretty disappointing. I think the comments on your posts about it tell you everything.

A. Wait, did we receive some negative feedback for the use of this image? I’m kidding. There were lots of comments and concerns, so I want to explain why we did so, how we use AI, and to try and allay reader concerns.

We have used AI-created images (always clearly labeled as such) only seven times in the history of Space City Weather, but most recent time we did so came on February 5th, here. This was, by far, the most controversial time. I used the image that morning because it was a humorous post, and I wanted a similarly “fun” image. I thought the AI-created image really fit the tone of the post, so I ran with it. It was a spur of the moment decision. This did not put a graphic artist out of business. Had I not used the AI-generated image, I would have just used a standard weather map or something.

I feel very conflicted about artificial intelligence, and its increasing prominence in our lives. A line in a recent op-ed in the New York Times really resonated with me: “”All of the people I love hate this stuff, and all the people I hate love it.” Basically, some of the most powerful business leaders in the world are aggressively pushing this stuff on us, and I don’t think they have our best interests at heart. I worry about the environmental implications. And I worry about the disruption to society a lot, and what the future is going to look like for my kids. So one one level, yes, I’m definitely uncomfortable with AI.

However, like it or not, this stuff is coming. And it behooves me—a perpetually online writer, forecaster, and journalist—to understand the technology and its implications. So yes, I experiment with AI tools and have found some utility in them. For forecasting, some of the AI-based weather models are quite good and Matt and I use them daily alongside traditional, physics-based models.

About one year ago we published an article outlining how Space City Weather will, and will not use AI. In that article, I wrote, “We have not, nor will we use any AI-based service for the writing of our forecasts. Very occasionally we may use an AI-based illustration, but if we do it will be clearly labeled as such.” That is the commitment we made to readers at the time, and we stuck with that, including our controversial use of an AI image a couple of weeks ago. However, I do want to reiterate that every word printed on this site in the past, today, and in perpetuity will be written by a human hand.

– Eric

Q. Houston’s such a big place, the weather is all over the place and yes, that pun was intended! Why do you only have 12 cities to pick from on your app? Why isn’t my city/town/neighborhood included?

A. Did you know that the city of Houston covers more than 600 square miles? It’s true! And that one of my favorite jokes about living here is that “Houston is an hour away from Houston”? “A big place” is something of an understatement …

This is one of our most-asked questions. When we first set out to build and release a mobile app for the site, we had to make some hard choices about which locations to include in the city picker (tap the 3-line menu on the upper left corner of the app’s home screen to see it). Eric and Matt tried to ensure that the region got wide-ranging coverage, but we only had five slots in the initial design. We were able to expand to a dozen in later updates, where we remain today.

When the SCW app first launched, there were only five regions to choose from, as seen on the left. Users now have a dozen.

Besides Eric’s & Matt’s judgement calls, there are some technical and design limitations. On most phones and tablets, we didn’t want to force users to scroll through a bunch of city names (though on smaller devices there may be a bit of a scroll), and we wanted to keep the app “lite.”

In addition, we use location-based conditions and forecast feeds from the National Weather Service, and if there is not a feed for a particular city, we can’t provide that data.

Your best bet if you don’t see your exact location in the picker is to choose the city closest to you. Yes, Houston’s spread out, but the weather source nearest you is very likely to have the conditions and forecasting info you need. For example, I live in the Montrose/River Oaks area, so I choose Hobby as my location. That works out pretty well.

And here’s a tip: The Houston item on the app’s list is Bush Intercontinental Airport (IAH), so if you live around there you can choose it. (IAH is also Houston’s “official” weather station.)

One of the other reasons for our current approach is that we don’t track anything you do in the app, and that includes location. But we are considering changing that – location tracking may be added to a future version of the app as an opt-in feature. If you wanted to know the conditions and forecast at your current location, this feature would do that. But again, it would be off by default.

Also, we are looking at the feasibility of adding cities for every available NWS feed and letting users pick their 12 cities – or letting the app choose for you based on location, if you opt-in. A big under-the-hood change planned for this year could enable that. These are all proposals, nothing yet set in stone; let’s just say it’s … aspirational!

As always, thank you for using the Space City Weather app on your iPhone/iPad/Mac or Android devices. And don’t forget we have a dedicated topic on our Discourse forum for talking about the app!

–Dwight

Q. I’ve been dealing with some serious allergies. Have you noticed any data showing a surge in allergens like pollen or cedar? Does this seem earlier than usual for the season, or could it be tied to that big temperature swing from the hard freeze to the 80s this week?

A. This question tends to come up each spring, or late winter as it is in Houston. Is allergy season starting earlier than it has? There’s some evidence in research that says this is occurring as the climate warms. But looking practically at recent data specifically in Houston, it’s a little more mixed. Tree pollen is considered high once levels hit about 80 or so. But the first really, really bad day of spring typically hits when we get to around a level of 500. If you’re curious, the worst day we’ve had since we’ve tracked this back to 2017 was April 7, 2022 when pollen levels exceeded 12,000!

So when has Houston hit that first “500” of the season?

2017: January 4 and again February 9
2018: January 12, 23, and February 2
2019: January 24, 29, and February 5
2020: January 27 and February 4
2021: January 7, several more times through Feb 1, then not again til mid-March
2022: February 18
2023: January 6, 13, 24, and February 7
2024: January 2 and February 1
2025: January 31 and February 10
2026: February 12

What can we make of this? Well, for one it seems like we almost always get 1 to 3 bad allergy days before February. Usually that’ll be a bunch of cedar blowing in behind a cold front with strong winds. But we don’t really see our true “season” establish until around the first week or two of February. From that point of view, this year seems to be right on time, if not perhaps a little late.

Houston’s tree pollen count from January through April; no data on weekends or holidays. (Houston Health Department)

The glaring outlier is 2021, when the mid-February freeze likely caused enough damage to trees to keep pollen from becoming an issue again til March and April. But as you can see from the chart, we are quite early in the game. We haven’t seen anything yet, and it’s likely the next 2-6 weeks will be rough for seasonal allergy sufferers.

– Matt

Q. For a while there, it seemed like Houston had a flood every year, sometimes more than one. That seems to have faded in the past few years. Is there a bigger-picture thing happening, or is it just the roll of the weather dice?

A. If you look at the history of Houston flood events, you’ll find a mix of all sorts of years and event types that triggered them. In some ways 2015 (Memorial Day) and 2016 (Tax Day) were just dumb luck thunderstorm events. Neither were “freak,” per se, but they had a sense of randomness to them.

Then, in 2017 Harvey was caused by a remnant hurricane and 2019 was a stalled out tropical storm (Imelda). You are correct that since then, things have tended to be a little calmer. Since 2019, Houston has only had one year of above average rainfall (2024), and of course that was tied heavily to one event (Beryl) and an active spring thunderstorm season. So just generally speaking, we’ve been drier than usual, reducing the overall odds of rain events.

A parking garage at the intersection of Waugh and West Gray flooded badly during Hurricane Harvey after water rushed in off the street. (Dwight Silverman photo)

Also, keep in mind that Houston is merely a dot on a map. Regionally, there have been some bad flooding events since our bad luck finally eased up. News of the recent massive expansion in floodplain coverage across Harris County, however, should give us all pause that while we’ve been more than deserving of a few years of calm, the pendulum will one day swing back again.

– Matt

Barring a freaky strong front, we think the Houston area is done with freezing temperatures for the season

In brief: In today’s post, although it is quite chilly this morning, we report that Houston is probably done with freezing weather for this season. We also look ahead to a warm day on Thursday, followed by mild conditions this weekend.

Last freeze?

Temperatures are rather cold across the Houston region this morning, dropping into the low- to mid-30s are inland areas such as Conroe and Cleveland, with the low 40s in the urban parts of the region. However, with it not freezing this morning, Matt and I are fairly confident the Houston region will not see a freeze again this season.

Temperatures should be above normal for most of the United States well into March. (Pivotal Weather)

Could it freeze in parts of Houston? On average, the city experiences its last freeze in mid-February (last week), but there have been plenty of years in which temperatures have reached freezing in March. So this is not a firm guarantee from your friendly meteorologists at Space City Weather. But looking ahead at our weather the next two weeks, there is nothing to suggest freezing temperatures are on the horizon. Overall, things look pretty spring-like for us, and that pattern is likely to carry on through March.

Speaking of winter, a powerful winter storm has hit the northeastern United States during the overnight hours. This was well predicted by forecasters, but still quite a striking event for the region from Washington D.C. to Maine. Winds are gusting up to 60 mph, in addition to 1 to 3 feet of snow, in some locations. Matt has been writing about the impacts of this massive blizzard over on The Eyewall.

Monday

By contrast, our weather here is likely to be fair in the days ahead, with sunny skies prevailing for the most part. High temperatures today will push up into the low- to mid-60s, with light northeasterly winds. Low temperatures tonight will again drop into the low 40s in Houston, with the potential for upper 30s for some areas further inland.

Tuesday

This will be another sunny day, with highs pushing into the lower 70s as high pressure eases away from the region. Winds will turn gusty from the south, perhaps up to 25 mph during the afternoon and early evening hours. Lows on Tuesday night will drop to around 60 degrees.

Wednesday

This will be another day in which southerly winds really whip up across the region, gusting to perhaps 25 or even 30 mph, bringing more humid air into the region. Highs on Wednesday will likely reach up to around 80 degrees, with mostly sunny skies. Lows on Wednesday night will fall only into the 60s.

By Thursday, temperatures will be sizzling across Southern Texas. (Pivotal Weather)

Thursday

This will be the warmest day of the week, and perhaps the year to date, as highs push into the low- to mid-80s across the region. Temperatures may feel upward pressure due to compressional heating as a cool front pushes southward, likely reaching the area during the afternoon or early evening hours. I don’t expect much in the way of rain with the front, but it should knock lows into the upper 50s by Friday morning.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

The weekend looks to be mild, with high temperatures in the vicinity of 80 degrees, and mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows will range from the mid-50s to 60 degrees, probably, with moderate humidity levels. It won’t be cold, but it won’t be steamy hot, either.

Next week

Our mild weather continues into next week, with highs likely in the vicinity of 80 degrees. Some rain chances may return by around the middle of next week, we’ll see!

Cooler weather for Houston by Sunday morning, as we assess recent rain impacts on drought

In brief: Today, we look at how drought has changed in the Houston area since last weekend’s rain (it hasn’t). We also take stock of our weekend cold front and look out in time at rain chances over the next 10 days, which are generally absent.

Did this past weekend’s rain help with drought?

No. Technically, it did not. Drought coverage remained unmoved over the last week, with about 95 percent of the area in some sort of drought and over 75 percent in severe drought.

Drought coverage saw this past weekend’s rain and laughed. (US Drought Monitor)

Keep in mind that “drought” itself carries a number of varying definitions. The drought monitor maps like above capture the bulk of the story but not all of the story. Sure, did this past weekend’s rain help matters? Absolutely. But when you’re talking about longer term issues with things like agriculture or water supply or things like that, the story can vary over time and space. Either way, we need more rain. And we’re not gonna get it for a bit.

Today & Saturday

Other than areas of dense fog this morning, perhaps lingering into the afternoon near Galveston, things look pretty quiet today and tomorrow. Expect highs near 80 inland and 70s nearer the coast. Outside of low clouds and fog in the morning, look for hazy conditions with clouds and sun. A few drips or drops are possible with a shower or two in area. Cedar pollen remains high, so you may be sneezy.

A cold front is going to advance through the area on Saturday evening, wiping out the haze and fog. It will also wipe out the warmth and humidity. Look for gusty winds Saturday evening, with gusts up to 30 mph inland for a short time and gusts up to 35 mph or so on the Island. The front itself should have little to no fanfare, as it will be mostly a dry front.

Sunday

Temperatures will drop off Saturday night, bottoming out in the 40s over much of the area by Sunday morning.

Cooler weather arrives Sunday morning with lows in the 40s in much of the area. (Pivotal Weather)

The breeze should remain all day but it will lower in intensity somewhat. We should see a return to sunshine, dry air, cool air, and low humidity. Look for highs in the 60s on Sunday.

Early next week

The early week will be “post-frontal pleasant” with lows in the 30s and 40s and highs in the 60s, perhaps near 70 by Tuesday. Skies should be sunny.

Later next week

It’s possible that another weak front passes through the area on Wednesday or Thursday, which could usher in another round of gusty winds and lower humidity. Before that, highs will peak back near 80 degrees or so.

Total rain over the next 10 days as forecast by the European ensemble mean showing little meaningful rain in our area. (Pivotal Weather)

Unfortunately, our rain chances over the next 10 days are minimal. Enjoy the generally nice weather, but let’s hope for rain again sooner than later.

Warm weather continues for three more days; also what do you want to see from us this year?

In brief: The overall forecast has not changed much, with warm weather persisting through Saturday afternoon before a cool front arrives. Also, we’re welcoming your ideas to improve Space City Weather!

How would you improve us?

The brain trust of Space City Weather will be meeting at an undisclosed location tonight (hint, they serve good pizza) in Houston to discuss our plans for the coming year, and also future directions of the site. No, we’re not planning to change any of fundamental parts of what we do here (such as no-hype forecasts and dad humor). But we are always looking for better ways to meet our readers where they are, and ensuring we’re getting the most reliable information to the broadest audience for free. So if you have any ideas you think would improve Space City Weather, from how we distribute our content to the content itself, leave suggestions in the comments below or use the contact button.

It will be a warm afternoon across the region for February. (Weather Bell)

Thursday and Friday

The overall forecast has not changed much. Today and Friday will bring partly to mostly cloudy skies, with muggy air, and high temperatures ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s. A few days ago it looked like we might hit the mid-80s this week, but we are likely to be spared from that by more clouds than previously anticipated. Nights will still be exceptionally warm for this time of year, however (our lows in the mid- to upper 60s will fall just a couple of degree below record high minimums of 69 degrees). There also will be a slight chance of showers today, but anything that reaches the ground will probably be misty or light, so don’t expect anything in the way of accumulations.

Saturday

This will be another warm and humid day, with a chance of light mist or showers as temperatures push up to around 80 degrees (or a bit above). A front will arrive during the afternoon hours, with drier and cooler air moving in at some point on Saturday evening. I don’t anticipate any showers or storms with the frontal passage. Lows will drop into the upper 40s by Sunday morning as skies clear out.

Sunday and Monday

Winter’s back! These will be cooler days with highs probably in the 60 to 65 degree range along with sunny skies. Sunday will be breezy, but I expect winds to settle down by Sunday evening. Sunday and Monday nights will definitely be on the chilly side. I expect lows of around 40 degrees in Houston, with slightly cooler conditions for inland areas. However I expect the region to remain above freezing, if only a few degrees in the cold spots such as Conroe.

Tuesday morning will be chilly across Houston. (Weather Bell)

Next week

Tuesday’s highs may be in the 60s, but by Wednesday we’ll be on a distinct warming trend, with highs in the 80s likely for the rest of the work week. Some sort of front may arrive by next weekend, we’ll see.