In brief: Dang nice, Houston.

Today through Sunday

This would be something of an unseasonably warm weekend anytime it occurs in winter, and to some it would be considered quite nice. After the chill of the last couple weeks, this weekend will probably feel nice to almost all. Sunshine, temps in the 70s (maybe 80?), and generally low humidity will continue.

Note how much cooler it is at the coast, with Galveston likely staying below 70 degrees. Water temperatures near the coast are in the mid-50s, which has converted the coastal Gulf into a localized air conditioning unit.

These will rebound quickly over the next week, but the combo of cold water and warm air may produce fog by Monday or Tuesday, and it will allow the island to be significantly cooler (10-15 degrees) than inland locations.

Next week

Our warmest days look to be Monday through Wednesday. Eric paid homage to the 70s yesterday, but it may be the 80s that we speak of on a couple days next week (and perhaps today). Depending on what model ensemble you choose, there’s a 20 to 40 percent chance we do it on Wednesday.

We should see shower chances infiltrate the picture beginning Tuesday however, and a weak-ish cold front looks to sneak in just after that. But it appears any cooldown will be fairly short lived, and it may be back to the 70s or 80s after a couple cool days off.

Drought update

Eric discussed the rain situation earlier this week. The latest drought update was released on Thursday and shows a small expansion of drought.

Keep in mind that this does not include the rain we saw on Tuesday (the report ends at 7 AM Tuesday). And some places saw a fair bit of helpful rain. We’ll have to see if we can cash in next week with our couple of chances. As nice as this weekend is, we probably need a couple days of soaking rain to help us out right now. If you follow weather folks on social media, you’re probably beginning to see chatter about a developing El Niño in the tropical Pacific as we head toward spring. Historically, that can skew the odds in favor of a wetter spring here in Texas, but we’re still a good way off before that would kick into gear. Something for us to keep tabs on though.

In brief: Our forecast is fairly straightforward for the next 10 days, with most every day having high temperatures in the 70s. So we’re having a little fun today by paying homage to the music from that era.

That 70s weather

After today Houston appears likely to experience a string of days with temperatures in the 70s, and our weather will enter something of a Goldilocks zone—not too hot, not too cold. As a result, we thought we’d mix things up today by adding a splash of 70s hit songs to our forecast. So as you head into the weekend, be sure and Take it Easy.

Thursday

If you’re waiting for the 70s era to kick off in terms of temperatures, today’s a day for simply Stayin’ Alive. That’s because high temperatures won’t get into the 70s, but rather will settle into the low- to mid-60s for highs. But there won’t be that chilly wind we saw on Wednesday, and as a result it should feel a little warmer and more Happy outside. Lows tonight will be warmer as well, likely only briefly falling below 50 degrees as the airmass over our region moderates.

Friday

As Rocky Mountain High pressure builds across Texas, this will be a mild, sunny day with high temperatures in the low-70s. Winds will be from the west at about 10 mph. Lows on Friday night will drop to around 50 degrees in Houston.

Saturday

This will be just about a perfect day, with highs in the mid-70s, sunny skies, low humidity, and light winds. This is the weather Dreams are made of.

Sunday

This will be mostly a Blue (sky) Sunday. However, the southerly flow becomes a little more pronounced, we will probably see a few more clouds. Still, this will be a pleasant day with modest southerly winds. I recommend spending a lot of time outside, and that you Don’t Stop ’Til You Get Enough.

Monday and Tuesday

The 70s party continues next week. However we probably will see more clouds on Monday, and perhaps some scattered showers on Tuesday when there Ain’t No Sunshine. With dewpoints rising to about 60 degrees it will feel a little more humid, but it will still feel fairly dry when you Imagine what it feels like outside during summer in Houston.

Later next week

At some point next week we may have to say Goodbye Yellow Brick Road, and leave the 70s. It may happen on Wednesday or Thursday, when a few locations reach 80 degrees, or possibly next weekend if a front drops our daily highs into the 60s. Or it may not happen for awhile longer. Regardless our weather truly looks mild for the next 10 days or so and none of us will need be Riders on the Storm. Enjoy!

In brief: With this post we’ve invited Paige Klobucnik, an atmospheric sciences student at the University of Houston, to write about Houston’s recent cold spell and better explain what happen. Matt and I would like to bring some new voices on to the site, from time to time, so let us know what you think. -Eric

Prior to our recent Arctic outbreaks, this winter had seen a mix of afternoon high temperatures in the 70s and even 80s, with a sprinkle of freezing mornings that led to some chilly days. So how did we end up with such a cold period after a mild winter? Let’s go into detail about what caused these super-low temperatures, and what might be coming next.

Essentially, Arctic air had the opportunity to finally move further south into North America this winter. There is this big mass of cold air that sits over the North Pole called the polar vortex, which is held in place by a ring of fast-moving winds called the polar jet stream. When there are rapid temperature changes in the Arctic, along with a number of other factors, we see waves start to form in the polar jet stream. As this happens the polar vortex is disrupted, causing polar air to spill southward. This produced the rapid temperature drop experienced by the region during the last 10 days of January.

These cold spells can be intimidating since our local infrastructure is not exactly designed for harsh winter weather. Fortunately, air temperatures here remained at or just above freezing while there was abundant precipitation. Areas further inland experienced ice and snow, which happens more frequently in Texas for locations that don’t have the moderating influence from the Gulf.

Now that we’re warming up a bit as we head into February, what about the rest of winter? The answer, my friend, is blowin’ in the wind. In the big picture, there are several different patterns that our atmosphere can fall into depending on the strength of trade winds that run to the west near the equator. These are El Niño and La Niña, which represent two opposing patterns that alter the climate we experience.

The best way to explain why our winter season has mostly been on the milder side is that we are experiencing a La Niña pattern. Below, I show how it looks when the conditions in the Pacific Ocean are normal. That is, not falling to either an El Niño and La Niña; trade winds blow from the east along the equator, moving warm water from South America to Asia. When this warm water moves, colder water from below moves up to displace what has been shifted. This is called upwelling as water shifts to fill any gaps.

Now when we see a La Niña pattern, like we are presently experiencing, the trade winds are even stronger, which means more warm water is being moved, and more cold water is being displaced to fill it in (more upwelling). For us in North America this means that our side of the Pacific is colder than normal, which can affect the whole continent’s climate.

How does this actually affect it? Well, I mentioned the polar jet stream that runs along the northern United States (the river of fast-moving winds that separates cold polar air from warmer tropical air), which influences temperature and helps drive precipitation across the states. When the trade winds strengthen and cold water upwells, it pushes this jet stream further north, which means that cold air is kind of stuck above us in the southern United States, leaving us with milder temps. And as for precipitation, it also keeps us on the dry side, as the jet stream can’t quite reach us to regularly deliver us storm systems.

But as we saw with the recent incursions of Arctic air, there is always a possibility of this jet stream moving further south and bringing us a taste of winter weather. It’s like this: La Niña is pushing the jet stream up, which in turn is fighting with the polar vortex and dragging it down. During the second half of January, the polar vortex won.

For the rest of winter I would expect milder temperatures to return, but remaining a bit on the colder side of what we observed entering the new year. However, given the fickle nature of La Niña I would not rule out an additional light freeze or two later this month.

In brief: In today’s post we review how rains on Tuesday evening helped with a drought that has persisted since late fall in our area. We also look ahead to two cooler nights before an exceptional weekend arrives in Houston.

Simmering drought

One of the quiet but persistent stories of the last several months in our region has been the development of a drought, particularly just to the south of the city. At one point about a month ago some of these areas reached ‘extreme’ levels of soil dryness. However the precipitation during the second half of January, in association with the strongest of the Arctic fronts, helped put a dent in things.

Even so, as of last week, large swathes of our region were in a ‘severe’ drought, and most of the rest of the region remained in a ‘moderate’ drought. That’s why I was pleased to see showers on Tuesday, and a line of showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday evening, over-perform expectations a little. During the last day or so most of the region picked up 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rainfall, with the higher totals tending to hit the driest areas. It now will not rain for awhile, so yesterday’s showers were a welcome thing for us.

Wednesday

Temperatures are about 50 degrees across the region this morning, and despite sunny skies we’re only going to warm up to about 60 degrees. With a fairly brisk northerly wind, gusting up to 25 mph at times, it’s going to feel chilly outside. Tonight will bring our coldest temperatures for at least the next week, with lows falling to about 40 in urban parts of the area, and upper 30s for outlying areas. Still, I think everyone will remain a little above freezing.

Thursday

This will be a another sunny day, with temperatures in the low 60s. However with only light winds, it will feel ‘warmer’ outside. Lows on Thursday night will only drop into the upper 40s.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

The weekend looks exceptional, with highs in the low- to mid-70s and plenty of sunshine. Only by Sunday afternoon may we start to see the incursion of a few clouds. Overnight lows will generally fall to around 50 degrees, with low humidity. Winds, generally will be light. Seriously, plan to get outdoors.

Next week

Most of next week looks to be pretty much the same day-to-day, with highs in the mid-70s and lows around 60 degrees. We probably will see some partly cloudy days and slight rain chances. But mostly, conditions will be mild. Some sort of front may arrive on Friday or Friday night, but I don’t expect sharply colder weather at this point.