In brief: The calendar reads May 12, but although June remains several weeks away today is the final day of spring for this year. Beginning tomorrow summer arrives in Houston and it does not appear likely to relinquish its grip. The region faces hot and sunny weather for awhile.

The end of spring

Looking back with hindsight, we might say that spring began on February 26 in Houston this year, a day when the high temperature reached 82 degrees. From that point forward, the city would not have any more daily highs below 69 degrees. And all things considered, it has been a rather warm spring, with both March and April recording average temperatures more than 4 degrees above normal. However, May so far has been temperate with near normal highs and lows, and a pair of pretty spectacular spring-like weekends. For those dreading the onset of summer it has been mighty fine. Sunday evening, with sporadic sunshine and dry air, was just an incredibly fine time to be outside.

But all good things must come to an end. And we can say with high confidence that spring will end today. Consider this morning the final hurrah. It sure may not feel like it outside right now, with much of the area dropping into the upper 50s. Indeed, it feels almost chilly outside. But believe me, this is it. The high today will be fine, in the mid-80s for most locations. But tonight will be warmer and more humid, and then by Tuesday we’re off to the races with a high temperature likely reaching the lower 90s. Maybe we will get a final, weak front 8-10 days from now, but it’s not something I’d bet on.

Monday

Much of the Houston region has fallen into the upper 50s or lower 60s this morning, and it feels positively spring like. Winds are generally calm this morning, and may yet come from the northwest for a few more hours today. This will help hold dewpoints in the 50s for much of today, helping keep humidity levels low through this afternoon and early evening. With clear skies high temperatures will likely reach the mid-80s. By tonight we will fall into a much more southeasterly flow, allowing for humidity levels to rise. Lows tonight will only drop into the upper 60s.

Tuesday

Southerly winds will become much more noticeable on Tuesday, with gusts up to 25 mph or perhaps even a bit higher. With this southerly flow skies will be mostly sunny, and high temperatures will reach at least the lower 90s. Tuesday night will be warm, with lows dropping only into the mid-70s.

Wednesday through Sunday

High pressure takes control, and we are going to see a hot week. Look for partly to mostly sunny days with high temperatures in the mid-90s, and mostly cloudy nights with lows in the upper 70s. Some inland locations will get into the upper 90s, with Wednesday likely to be the hottest day of the week. Rain chances will be virtually non-existent. With dewpoints around 70 degrees, the humidity will feel summer-like. From day to day there will be very little change in the weather, but there might be a very slight downturn in temperatures by the weekend.

Next week

The uncharacteristically hot pattern will persist into next week before some kind of front slides into the state. Whether it makes it all the way to Houston remains to be seen. But that will bring our best chance of rain for the next 10 days.

In brief: A few showers will dot the radar around Houston today and tomorrow. We’re optimistic that Mother’s Day will turn out mostly fine. But next week? It’s gonna get hot, like June or July-type heat.

SCW Flood Scale

I want to start off with a quick note today. If you’ll recall, back in January of 2023, I had posted that I gave a talk about the SCW Flood Scale at the American Meteorological Society’s annual meeting in Denver. We said we might have some opportunities to partner up with some experts to improve the scale. We love the scale, and we know you do. And while it works, we came up with it ourselves. It’s rooted in what we thought worked. Well, the goal was to get it rooted in science.

Thanks to the passion and interest of Dr. Steven Woods, the director of the Cognitive Neuropsychology of Daily Life Laboratory at the University of Houston and his PhD student, Natalie Ridgely, we may have a solution. Natalie conducted a bevy of research to understand how people consume weather information. Natalie just successfully defended her dissertation research this week, much of which comes out of her work that uses our flood scale and proposed modifications to it! I was honored to serve as a member of her dissertation committee, and I cannot wait for Natalie and Dr. Woods to share more details on this in the weeks and months ahead. Natalie’s findings are fascinating and illuminating and will become a great contribution to both neuroscience research and research of the societal impacts of meteorology. And they’ll have a permanent impact on our flood scale. Congrats to Natalie! More to come.

Overnight storms

So, yes, last night we had a few hours of storms right across the middle of Houston. Many of you missed out, but many of you participated. Thankfully, they were not severe, but they certainly had some noise — and rain.

The big winner was the area between the Med Center and UH, where a max total of nearly 4 inches occurred. A secondary maximum was just west of Sheldon. Rain rates were on the order of 2 to 4 inches an hour. They were some hefty downpours. Some pockets north and west of downtown also saw around an inch or so, but for the most part it was that corridor that got soaked.

Today

We have one last little broken line of showers rolling through the area now. Some heavier downpours are occurring southeast of the city across Brazoria County.

These will exit over the next couple hours, giving us a quiet middle of the day. With any sunshine will come some additional showers and perhaps storms today. The best odds of showers later today will probably be north of I-10, probably across Montgomery, Walker, Liberty, and San Jacinto Counties. With low pressure in the upper atmosphere over Louisiana, these showers will basically drop north to south.

Saturday

It looks like one little disturbance in the upper atmosphere is going to pivot around the upper low in Louisiana tomorrow, so I think our odds of scattered showers or thunderstorms actually may go up a bit, relative to this afternoon. These would probably pop up in the late afternoon and evening hours. So just have an umbrella handy for any Saturday evening plans. Look for highs in the upper-70s to near 80 degrees.

Mother’s Day

Drier air is going to begin pushing into the area on Sunday. I don’t want to completely take a rain chance out, especially east of I-45, but any showers on Sunday should be fleeting. And overall, any plans you’ve got should have minimal to no weather disruption with mostly sunshine otherwise. Highs should top out near 80 or so on Sunday.

Next week

Welp. There’s almost always a week in May where it becomes apparent that the season is about to change. Next week should be that week. Monday looks great, with a cool morning, highs in the lower 80s and comfortable humidity. By Tuesday we bounce into the upper-80s. Wednesday? Low-90s. Thursday we head into the mid-90s. And to be honest, I would not be shocked if we end up in the upper-90s by Friday or Saturday.

These will begin to approach record highs. The humidity should also transition back above normal later next week, probably making it feel a bit more uncomfortable. It should hopefully fall short of the intense heat and humidity we saw last May, but either way, brace yourselves, summer is coming.

In brief: Good evening! Matt here with a quick update for you on the weather that has, well, escalated across Houston. I am currently writing this from my son’s bed because some of the lightning (as many of you will attest) was too close for comfort.

As of 10:30 pm CT we have a nearly stationary line of thunderstorms anchored over the Highway 59 corridor, or on either side. It’s maneuvering around a bit but not enough to avoid some developing flooding issues. There is a flash flood warning in effect for this area until midnight.

Rain rates have been on the order of 2 to 4 inches an hour in the heaviest downpours. We would advise you to drive cautiously this evening. Based on modeling, our best guess is that this may continue through 12-2 AM and then quickly push out of here. Storms exiting the Texas coast to our south should help to get that going. But there is certainly a hint of uncertainty given how this system developed into unexpectedly potent showers and thunderstorms.

We will have the latest for you in the morning or overnight if for some reason things continue to get worse. 

In brief: Houston still has a few chances for some scattered showers today and Saturday, but for the most part we are going to see sunny skies for awhile. The biggest news today is that a cool front, perhaps the final one of this spring, will slowly push into the area today and tonight. This will set the stage for a grand weekend of May weather.

Cool fronts

Ahh, cool fronts. Is there anything better in Houston than that? I mean, the food around these parts is pretty darn good. The people, when they’re not screeching along freeways, are generally quite friendly. You can find a good living here. But for me, there is not much in this southern city to beat a cool front that comes along and knocks down the humidity, allowing us to pretend we don’t live in a jumped-up swamp.

I love cool front season. I live for cool front season.

Houston got its first (admittedly weak) front of fall last year in late September. On the 27th of the month, the temperature at Bush Intercontinental Airport dipped below 64 degrees. That means we’ve had 222 days during which we might reasonably hope for a cool front in Houston. It’s been a good run, but I’m afraid it’s about to end.

Today and tomorrow are going to see dry air slowly percolating into the area, such that Saturday, Sunday, and Monday aren’t exactly going to feel humid outside. It won’t be particularly cool, mind you. But it won’t be hot, either, and the air won’t feel sultry. For this time of year we cannot ask for much more. I’m also not entirely ruling out one more (almost certainly weaker) front later in the month. It’s possible. But I wouldn’t bet on it. I’d bet on summer. But hey, I just checked, and the end of September is only 20 weeks away…

Thursday

Today will be sunny and fairly warm, with high temperatures reaching the mid- to upper 80s with a fair amount of humidity. Winds will generally be light, from the northeast, at 5 to 10 mph. Late this afternoon, and evening, an atmospheric disturbance will approach from the west and this will introduce a chance of showers and thunderstorms. I think overall rain chances are only about 20 or 30 percent, and the primary time frame will be this evening or during the overnight hours. We could see a few thunderstorms as well, and we cannot entirely rule out some of them becoming severe. However, I doubt it. Lows tonight drop to around 70 degrees.

Friday

Winds will come more prominently from the north on Friday, and this will start to bring some modestly drier air into the region. Highs will likely only reach the lower 80s on Friday under mostly sunny skies. Lows on Friday night will drop into the mid-60s.

Saturday

Highs on Saturday may only reach the upper 70s, with mostly sunny skies. There will be enough of a disturbance in the atmosphere that we may see a few scattered showers later in the day due to daytime heating, but overall chances are quite low. Temperatures on Saturday night should drop into the upper 50s for some inland areas, while remaining in the lower 60s closer to the coast.

Sunday

Mother Nature is bringing the goods for Mother’s Day this year, with a lovely day in store. Expect mostly sunny skies, highs of around 80 degrees, and moderate humidity levels. Really, an A+ day for mid-May. We’ll have one more somewhat chilly night on Sunday.

Next week

We’ll see a warming trend next week, and by Tuesday or Wednesday we’ll begin a stretch of at least several days with high temperatures in the 90s with plenty of humidity. Rain chances appear to be low at least until next weekend. It is that time of year.