Cooling late spring in Houston this weekend before outstanding April weather next week

Some storms sped through northern parts of the metro area yesterday evening, delivering a few quarter-size hail reports and some locally heavy rain in northern Harris and Montgomery Counties.

We’ve got a very unseasonably cool air mass trying to make inroads to Texas right now, so that’s a good recipe for hail. And in fact, today there is a chance of some additional storms with potential hail as well, primarily north of Houston.

Today

Our incoming cold front will slowly drop south across Texas today. A weak system in the upper atmosphere will slide west to east across the state as well. As the front drops in, this should allow showers and storms to break out through the day. The best chance of rain will be north of I-10 once again today. Areas along Spring Creek saw upwards of one inch of rainfall yesterday, so any storms will be capable of dropping some locally heavy rain this afternoon as well.

Friday’s forecast rain chances from the Houston National Weather Service office show the best chances north of Houston, closer to the front. Some storms up north will be capable of producing hail. (NWS Houston)

Those that don’t see storms today will just see clouds and a few showers. It will be fairly warm and humid today as well, with highs reaching into the mid-70s.

Tonight

While this will be a fairly strong cold front for April, it won’t pack a ton of punch as it moves through. I’d expect a narrow line of showers and perhaps some storms along the front to drop through the region from northwest to southeast after 6 to 8 PM this evening, reaching the coast by midnight or so. Expect a gusty north wind to kick in once the front passes, with gusts of 15 to 20 mph possible; a bit stronger over the water. Temperatures will drop back into the 50s to near 60° over much of the area by morning.

Saturday & Sunday

For lack of a better word, tomorrow looks a bit dreary. Right now, forecast highs for Saturday are in the mid to upper-60s, but I suspect that with clouds locked in, cool air pouring south, and some lingering shower chances, we may struggle to reach 65° tomorrow afternoon in much of the area. If that does happen, it would be our coolest late April daytime high in seven years. There will be continued upper level “energy” overhead allowing us to keep mention of shower chances in for Saturday afternoon. Unlike Friday, the best odds of rain tomorrow will be south of I-10 and along the coast. Accumulations should be rather light overall, but it may be unpleasant at times south of Houston tomorrow afternoon.

On Sunday, expect a mix of clouds and some sun, less of a breeze, and continued cool temperatures. Look for morning lows in the 50s (perhaps some 40s north and west) and daytime highs again in the middle to upper-60s.

Next week

It sure looks nice for much of next week. Like, really, really nice. Goldilocks weather: Not too hot, not too cold. Expect a mix of sun and clouds most days. Through Wednesday, high temperatures will top off in the 70s after starting the day in the 50s (with even some 40s possible north of Houston).

The 5 day average temperature anomaly from the GEFS model from Sunday morning through Friday morning shows temperatures averaging 5 to 10 degrees below normal across Texas next week. (Weather Bell)

There should be a reinforcing cold front late Tuesday night or Wednesday that comes through with little fanfare but locks back in comfortable weather for the back half of next week. Warmer weather and increasing rain chances would follow suit Friday or Saturday.

Two more days of unsettled weather before a robust front blows in

Houston’s weather will remain unsettled for a couple of more days, with the potential for briefly heavy rainfall, before a stronger cold front arrives on Saturday and brings significantly drier air with it. This will bring one of the last extended periods of spring-like weather to us this season, so enjoy!

Thursday

Although a weak front has limped through Houston and off the coast—winds are generally out of the north to northeast across the region—the atmosphere remains unstable. Therefore we’ll likely continue to see at least a handful of storms moving from west to east across the region today. These will bring showers and possibly a few strong thunderstorms to some areas, while others of us see mostly clouds. Highs today will be in the mid-70s, and lows tonight should drop into the 60s for most, with low 70s right along the coast.

NOAA rainfall accumulation map for Thursday morning through Saturday. (Weather Bell)

Friday

Winds will shift to come from the south as the onshore flow resumes. This, combined with an approaching front, will set the stage for pretty healthy rain chances on Friday afternoon and Friday night. The greatest accumulations are likely north of Interstate 10, where much of the region should see 0.5 to 1.0 inch of rain, with isolated areas seeing more. Totals south of I-10 will likely see 0.5 inch of rain or less, on average. The front itself should move into Houston late Friday night or early Saturday morning, reaching the coast by sunrise. As a result, overnight lows will range from the 50s, well inland, to around 70 right on the coast.

Saturday

In the wake of the front, I think we’ll see rain showers ending by around sunrise, give or take an hour. Winds will kick up, gusting up to 25 or 30 mph out of the north before dying back during the evening hours. With mostly cloudy skies, I expect highs to max out in the upper 60s for most areas, with lows Saturday night dropping into the low-50s in Houston, with cooler conditions inland, and slightly warmer ones along the coast.

Low temperature forecast for Sunday morning. (Weather Bell)

Sunday

A pleasant, springtime day with highs in the upper 60s and at least partly sunny skies. Sunday night’s lows will be similar to Saturday night, or possibly a couple of degrees cooler.

Next week

We can probably expect the first half of next week to remain dry, with highs in the 70s, and cool nights. After that time the onshore flow will resume, launching a warming trend before there’s the potential for another front to push into Houston late next week.

More rainy days ahead before a significantly cooler weekend

Good morning. Houston received its first round of mostly light to moderate rainfall on Tuesday evening and during the overnight hours, and we’ll have another good chance again today, and then again later on Friday. We should also be done with 80-degree days for awhile after today, as well.

Wednesday

We’re still awaiting the arrival of a weak front this morning, but instability associated with this system is continuing to generate showers with some embedded thunderstorms. I’m afraid there is really no consistency in the high resolution models for where rainfall will be greatest today, and my confidence on accumulations is low. Most areas will see between 0 and 1 inch of rain through tonight, but we can’t rule out a few bullseyes with greater totals. Highs today will reach about 80 degrees, with mostly cloudy skies. The front will sag southward into the region later on, reaching The Woodlands around midnight, and pushing down to the coast around sunrise.

Due to the front, low temperatures on Thursday morning will depend on where you live. (Weather Bell)

Thursday

Things probably will calm down somewhat on Thursday, but we can’t be sure the rain is entirely going to go away. Skies will remain mostly cloudy, and with a mostly light northeasterly wind, highs will likely shakeout somewhere in the mid-70s. Overnight lows will drop into the mid-60s.

Friday

This will be another cloudy day, with highs likely slotting somewhere into the 70s. The first half of the day should be fairly sedate before rain chances start to increase during the afternoon and evening hours with the arrival of another cold front overnight. This will again bring a period of showers with embedded thunderstorms into the region, and again I think accumulations will range from 0 to 1 inches for most areas. Lows Friday night will be dependent on the front’s position.

Saturday

The front should reach the coast by around sunrise, or shortly after, on Saturday. This will usher drier air into the region and should preclude all but a few scattered showers during the afternoon hours. Expect mostly cloudy skies with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Things should get fairly breezy after the front blows through, with gusts of 25 or 30 mph possible during the daytime. Temperatures will drop down to about 50 degrees on Saturday night in Houston, with colder conditions inland, and a bit warmer along the coast.

Several nights of lows in the 50s for Houston? Yes please. (Weather Bell)

Sunday and beyond

Skies will start to clear out some on Sunday, and highs will likely reach the upper 60s to 70 degrees. With lesser winds, this should be a fine spring day, and certainly one of our last days this cool, with sunshine, this season. I think we’ll remain in a pattern of highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s through the early part of next week before a warming trend begins. Summer is not too far away, so this will offer a nice blast of spring before things turn perma-humid for us.

Houston still set to get some much needed rainfall this week

Houston’s weather will remain unsettled for much of this week, and the overall forecast has turned somewhat wetter. We now expect most of the region to see 1.0 to 2.0 inches of rain between now and the weekend, a healthy total that will help to blunt the upper Texas coast’s emerging drought. Each day will likely see at least low rain chances until Sunday.

Tuesday

A weak front will approach the Houston region from the west this morning, and this should trigger some shower and possibly thunderstorm development. Some of these storms, which will be scattered in nature, could become severe later this evening and tonight for areas east of Interstate 45 (see NOAA map below). With the front hanging up west of Houston, I expect most of us will see highs today in the low- to mid-80s to go along with cloudy skies. Overnight lows will drop to around 70 degrees.

NOAA outlook for severe weather on Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Wednesday

The front will slowly move across Houston on Wednesday, and this will trigger a healthy chance of showers and possibly thunderstorms. Rain chances likely will be best in central Houston and near the coast as the front sags into city on Wednesday night and pushes offshore on Thursday morning. Highs for most of the area will be about 80 degrees on Wednesday, and lows dropping to around 60 degrees behind the frontal passage.

Thursday and Friday

Skies will remain partly to mostly cloudy to end the work week, with highs in the low 70s in the wake of the front. I think rain chances will take a step back from Thursday morning through Friday morning, before a stronger front approaches Houston. This front, combined with atmospheric moisture, will allow for a pretty healthy chance of showers and thunderstorms from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. Again, we’re not anticipating a washout, but here’s hoping our drying soils get a good soaking.

NOAA rain accumulation forecast for now through Saturday. (Weather Bell)

Saturday and Sunday

A slight chance of showers will linger into Saturday afternoon for the region, but mostly we should just be dealing with cloudy skies. Highs on Saturday will likely only reach around 70 degrees, with much of the region (except for the coast) dropping into the 50s on Saturday night. Skies should clear out on Sunday, which at this point has the look of an absolutely stellar day with mostly sunny skies and highs of around 70 degrees. Next week looks drier, in terms of precipitation.