In brief: Temperatures this morning are reaching within a few degrees of record lows for the greater Houston area, with some rural areas experiencing a light freeze. Most of the city has remained just above freezing, however. Today we’ll begin a warming trend that won’t end for some time.

Coldest night competition

The official low temperature at Bush Intercontinental Airport is likely to bottom out at 33 degrees (the record low is 30 degrees, set in 1900), but whatever the official low ends up being temperatures this morning are likely to be Houston’s coldest for many months. Following a warming trend this week the rest of March looks rather warm, and then we’re in to April. So let’s have a competition. When will Houston’s temperature be this cold again? Leave your guess in the comments below and whoever is closest will win either a free Space City Weather t-shirt or a signed copy of Reentry.

Tuesday

St. Patrick’s Day will feel rather chilly to start, but at least those strong northerly winds have finally died down. Conditions are mostly calm this morning, and even this afternoon winds should only be 5 to 10 mph. But you will note they’re going to start shifting to come from the south, indicating the beginnings of a southerly flow. Anyway, with the help of sunny skies we should see high temperatures climb to around 60 degrees today, or a little warmer.

Houston rodeo forecast

If you’re headed out to the show today you can expect plenty of sunny skies and dry air. Winds will be light this evening, topping out at perhaps 10 mph. Temperatures this evening will be in the mid- to upper 50s, falling to the lower 50s after the show. With clear skies tonight, expect overnight lows to drop into the upper 40s for urban Houston, with slightly cooler conditions for outlying areas, away from the coast.

Wednesday and Thursday

These will be sunny days with a continued warming trend. Expect highs in the mid-70s on Wednesday, followed by around 80 degrees on Thursday. Overnight lows will warm as well, first into the 50s, and then perhaps around 60 degrees. Humidity levels will start to climb, but the air should still feel fairly pleasant throughout this period.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

The weekend looks rather warm and sunny as a persistent ridge of high pressure asserts control of our weather. We can expect high temperatures in the mid- to upper-80s, with some areas possibly reaching 90 degrees, along with moderately humid air. Overnight low temperatures will only fall into the mid-60s. The only real hazard I would caution against is the Sun, as it is getting a lot higher in the sky compared to where we were during the winter months. It is now reaches the same height in the sky as in September, so if you’re going to be outside for a prolonged period of time please protect your skin.

Next week

Our very much warmer-than-normal weather should persist at least through the middle of next week, with ongoing highs in the mid-80s and lows probably in the 60s for the most part. There may be some sort of front, along with decent rain chances, by Thursday or Friday of next week but I can make no promises on that account.

In brief: In today’s post we look at windy conditions over night, in which large chunks of the region saw gusts of 45 to 55 mph. This is leading to very chilly conditions this morning, and we’ll only warm up a little bit today. Temperatures tonight will get into the 30s for much of the area, but should remain above freezing.

Windy conditions

In the wake of Sunday evening’s cold front a river of winds in the atmosphere has, essentially, dipped down to ground level. This has brought very windy conditions across the region overnight. Much of the area has experienced gusts of 45 to 55 mph, with even higher ones along the coast. At 3:52 am this morning, for example, Galveston recorded sustained winds of 43 mph, and a gust of 58 mph. Those are tropical-storm force winds. Winds will die down slightly over the next few hours, but we will continue to see a very blustery day, with gusts of 30 to 35 mph possible until later this afternoon when things finally settle down for awhile.

Monday

Although cold temperatures trailed the wind, much colder air did begin to make serious progress into the region after midnight. Air temperatures this morning range from the low 40s north of Houston to upper 40s in the city, with slightly warmer conditions near the coast. But when you tack winds on, temperatures feel like they’re in the 30s across the area, so very chilly out there. Highs won’t climb much today despite the sunny skies. Most of us won’t get higher than the mid-50s this afternoon. So far the winds have had a negligible impact on power outages.

Houston rodeo weather

Although winds will fall off this afternoon and early evening, they’re not going away. We should still see some gusts in the 20 to 25 mph range before tonight’s show. Air temperatures before the show will be about 50 degrees, falling to the upper 40s afterward. So with the wind chill it will be quite brisk outside. Winds should finally die off by or before midnight tonight. Lows in Houston will bottom out at about 40 degrees in the urban core of Houston, with much of the outlying area falling into the mid- to upper-30s tonight.

Tuesday

This will be a sunny day with high temperatures in the low 60s. I feel pretty confident in saying this is likely to be Houston’s coldest daytime temperature until at least October, or possibly even November. So really, Monday and Tuesday are probably our last “winter-like” days in Houston until next winter. Winds will be almost entirely gone, but importantly they will subtly shift from the northeast to southeast, which will eventually bring us much warmer weather. Lows on Tuesday night should fall into the upper 40s in Houston.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

Sunshine will prevail for the rest of the week as we see a warming trend from highs in the mid-70s on Wednesday to the mid-80s on Friday. Overnight lows will be in the 50s and 60s. Humidity comes back but it should not be oppressive.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend looks sunny and hot, with highs in the mid- to upper-80s. Some inland locations might even flirt with 90 degrees—quite the turnaround from this morning. Rain chances are nil.

Next week

The first half of next week should see continued, rather hot weather for March. The pattern may change by the middle of next week (or not!) with an increase in rain chances and possibly a front. Although I must say this is far enough into the future that my overall confidence is rather low. But by then we’ll definitely be back in the “We could sure use some rain” camp.

In brief: We’re interrupting your Sunday morning to bring an updated forecast for the arrival time of a strong cold front this evening. Not much has changed since our forecast on Friday, but we want people to be aware of what is coming in terms of wind.

What to expect and when to expect it

Today will be a warm one, with high temperatures in the mid-80s, partly to mostly sunny skies, and a decent amount of humidity. Yes, it’s a little warm for March, but otherwise nothing out of the ordinary. However a fast-moving front this evening will bring a rapid change.

In terms of timing, I expect the front to probably reach areas such as Katy and The Woodlands between 5 and 7 pm CT, central Houston, including Sugar Land and Baytown, between 6 and 8 pm, and Galveston by 7 to 9 pm this evening. There will be a brief possibility of showers and thunderstorms (there is a slight chance of some of these becoming severe, but for most of us probably not). Anyway this front will be moving so the showers will not last long. There has been some internet chatter about a derecho, but we don’t have any expectations for that kind of event.

What will be immediately perceptible is an abrupt wind shift, from a southerly flow to strong gusts from the north. Wind gusts behind the front will be up to 45 mph across Houston, and this is strong enough to blow things around. It is advisable to secure loose objects and really take care driving. The strongest wind gusts will persist overnight before settling down a little bit on Monday morning (to maybe around 30 mph).

This won’t be a “Blue Norther” type front with temperatures dropping sharply immediately. I expect them to fall 5 to 10 degrees after the front’s passage, and then steadily drop with temperatures in the low 50s by midnight, to around 40 degrees by Monday morning. So with the wind chill it will be very cold on Monday morning, possibly feeling like it’s about 30 degrees outside. You’ll definitely want to bundle up.

We’ll be back at that time with a full weather update for you.

In brief: A spectacular Friday and a winner of a Saturday will close Houston’s spring break week out nicely. Sunday will be warm and humid before a powerful cold front brings a pinch of rain and some potent winds in the evening and overnight hours. Much colder weather will drop temperatures from the 80s Sunday evening to the 40s Monday morning. Things then calm down.

After a cool but delightful Thursday, we set sail for another winner of a day today.

Friday & Saturday

It’ll be a cool start to the morning, but the day should warm up nicely, with highs in the mid or even upper-70s in spots on Friday. Saturday looks much the same with highs near 80 degrees. Humidity will slowly begin to inch upward later today and on Saturday, which you won’t notice a ton. Morning lows will be in the 50s tomorrow.

Rodeo Forecast

Spectacular evening for getting (responsibly) tipsy with Shaboozey. Temps will fall from the 70s into the 60s through the evening with light winds. The weather continues to look good for a moment like this on Saturday with Kelly Clarkson. Expect temperatures mainly in the 70s, maybe dipping into the upper-60s late. And then Sunday, it’ll be a little breezier and a little cloudier. Temperatures will be much warmer, and it will be humid. Look for 80s with a south wind blowing in around 20 to 30 mph. Prometiste.

Sunday night and Monday

Here’s where the forecast gets a little wild. The cold front hits the area in the evening hours Sunday, after highs in the mid-80s. It will probably carry a broken line of thunderstorms. We don’t currently expect any severe weather from this, but it’s possible some strong storms occur, especially in northeast Harris or Liberty County. The area is in a marginal risk (level 1/5) for severe storms. But the front is going to arrive with some oomph. As winds flip around to come out of the north, they could gust over 40 mph for a few hours Sunday evening. Temperatures will also drop about 30 to 40 degrees from highs in the 80s to lows in the 40s.

We try not to be too preachy on the blog here, but this is one of those times where we’ll strongly encourage you to secure any loose outdoor objects, as these may be our strongest post-frontal winds since October, or even since last March. Those wind gusts will keep up into Monday morning, though slowly back off their peak levels, still probably 30 to 40 mph though. After Noon on Monday, winds should more rapidly drop off into the 20s mph. We are probably not getting out of the mid to upper-50s on Monday, even with sunshine. Monday night will be cold with lows in the 30s and low-40s.

Rest of next week

We sort of break out of this fairly active weather pattern next week, with quieter weather, warming temperatures, and increasing humidity. 70s should return by Wednesday and 80s by Thursday. Our next chance at rain after Sunday may be a good way away.