In brief: Nothing about the site is changing, but Matt has a life update to share.

A couple things happened last Friday. First, it was announced that Houston is finally getting back the WNBA team it always deserved, as the Connecticut Sun will be relocating here in 2027. Friday was also the beginning of a transition for me, Matt, the managing editor of this website. I resigned from my position at CenterPoint Energy. Let’s just get this out of the way first: It was a privilege to work with and learn from so many people at that organization. I am grateful for the opportunity they gave me, especially as one of the voices who was critical of them in the aftermath of Hurricane Beryl.

I found the commitment there to continuous improvement refreshing. Every time I engaged with executives from the CEO on down at CenterPoint, the first question they would ask me is “do you have what you need?” I don’t think anyone in the area can fully comprehend how much work is being done across the region by CenterPoint, both in response to 2024’s disasters and in anticipation of the absolutely insane growth in power demand coming to Texas. And quite frankly, I got to build something really cool stuff that is built to last and will continue to help further their preparation and resiliency to disasters. I leave them in the more than capable hands of Lena Dziechowski, who is an absolute rock star of a meteorologist. I was incredibly lucky to work with her, and I wish her and CenterPoint absolutely nothing but success going forward.

Now, as they say, some personal news. “The only constant in life is change,” is a quote often misattributed to the Greek philosopher Heraclitus. Whoever said it, however, was correct. The world is in constant flux. It’s partially why I enjoy weather forecasting. Our lives are all full of change. I’ve been in Houston for almost 15 years now, half of which have included children, a process that in and of itself was full of challenges and changes in expectations. Job changes, some by choice, some not, living changes, health changes, and on and on. Now my family will be making another big change in the coming months, relocating from Houston to Connecticut. Houston gets the Sun (Comets), Connecticut gets us.

Obviously, this was not an easy decision, but in the interest of transparency to our readers, something we always do, I’ll share with you some reasons why. The first and foremost reason is family. My father will be turning 80 in a year and a half, and quite frankly, seeing him and my mom once a year has started to weigh on my conscience a bit. They still live in New Jersey and don’t exactly enjoy traveling, and with grandchildren in the mix now, it feels a bit unfair. A move closer will allow us to see each other more. We’ve been fortunate and blessed to have my wife’s parents relocate to the Houston area most of the time we’ve been here, and in many ways it also feels unfair to leave them. But they also travel a bit better, and we will be happy to return to visit Houston once or twice a year (except not in August or September, sorry).

And in that vein, another reason is that quite frankly, I do worry about our vulnerability here to hurricanes, and not just Beryl-type storms—much bigger storms. There’s a commitment all around toward building resiliency in our region and things are better now than they were 5 or 10 years ago. But I’ll be honest, the fact that the “Ike Dike” is still mainly a plan on paper nearly 20 years after Ike is a little troubling. Metaphorically, my concern for hurricanes is what keeps me up at night. I take this stuff seriously. It’s a passion, a hobby, and a job. After 15 years of this, I’m ready to tap the brakes a bit for my own sanity before this literally keeps me up at night. Sure, the odds in any given year are exceptionally low. But when this is what you do for a living and you know more than most people about storms, it doesn’t always feel that way. Also, our summers have been getting hotter here, which is going to continue as the climate changes. I can live with cold, even if it’s annoying (especially in March in New England), but 9 of our 15 hottest summers have occurred since 2009. Sprawl and urban heat island are certainly part of that, but so is a warming Gulf and climate change. Some people love the heat or can tolerate it, and that’s great. I can too, but within limits. 2023 was the most miserable summer I’ve ever experienced, and I’d rather not go through that again.

So what does that mean for the site? And for that matter The Eyewall? The answer is nothing. I am going to continue to be the primary producer of posts for The Eyewall. And I will continue to lend Eric a hand with SCW, posting regularly on Fridays and hopefully having the ability to do some extra-curricular stuff to help you understand Houston’s weather better. In fact, having me an hour ahead of Houston may even be a bit more advantageous to getting some stuff out sooner during bigger weather events or important forecasts. The idea is that you’ll notice nothing different.

To say we’ll miss Houston is an understatement. I outlined my weathery concerns above, but the reality is that the people here are amazing. The community here is amazing. The passion and pride is amazing. I love how Houston can be honest about some of its shortcomings but then the second some outsider tries to talk bad about it, we come at them with pitchforks. Do not mess with Houston. Houston is actually how people outside Texas envision Austin to be: It’s quirky, fun, it functions, it’s full of energy, literally and figuratively, and it’s woefully underrated outside of Texas. Sorry, ATX…HOU is cooler. It has the most amazing food of any place I’ve lived or visited. You can even find pizza here that more than meets the mark. I may be getting good pizza in Connecticut, but I will probably desperately miss the rest of the food available here. Did I think I’d live in Houston when I graduated college? Nope. Am I glad I did? Yes.

We’ll remain here in Houston for a few more months before the move. I’ll be taking on a new full-time role helping commodities traders with weather intelligence, getting more into the weeds of the weather forecasting that I also love. But Eric and I just wanted you to know about my change in situation before it happened. And we want to be sure you are also reassured that nothing is changing for the site. Thanks for adopting this Yankee over the years, and thanks as always for supporting the mission Eric and I strive to achieve.

In brief: In today’s forecast we note that Houston’s last measurable rainfall occurred nearly three weeks ago for most of the region. That almost certainly will end this week, with the threat of some showers lingering into Easter Sunday.

Easter Sunday

For most of Houston, our last measurable rainfall came on March 11, and it is unlikely to rain for another day or two at least. As we discussed on Friday, parts of the Houston area have already reached “extreme” drought status, and more will follow without significant rainfall soon.

High pressure has been dominant of late, but that should change this week, allowing for somewhat increased rain chances on Wednesday and Thursday. But our best chances will come this weekend, with the passage of a decently strong front. This may bring 0.5 to 1.5 inch into the area. But when will it fall? That will depend on the timing of the front. Right now I’d guess sometime on Saturday night, yet even if that’s the case we could see showers lingering into Easter Sunday morning.

Bottom line? It could be a soggy Easter Sunday. It could also just be mostly cloudy and cooler. It definitely will not be like yesterday, which turned out to be a fabulous Sunday weather-wise. Seriously, was it not just grand?

Monday

Temperatures this morning are generally in the low- to mid-60s, and we are going to see a fairly robust onshore flow with winds gusting up to 20 mph from the south later today. With mostly sunny skies I expect high temperatures this afternoon to reach the mid-80s. Lows tonight will only drop into the upper 60s, with partly cloudy skies.

Tuesday

This will be another warm and humid day, with partly sunny skies and high temperatures in the mid-80s. We can again expect gusty, southerly winds. There will be a slight chance of rain, perhaps 10 or 20 percent, and if any rain does fall it likely will be very light in nature. Lows on Tuesday night will again be unseasonably warm.

Wednesday and Thursday

As atmospheric moisture levels increase this week we will see a corresponding increase in cloud cover. That’s not to say we won’t see some sunshine for the rest of the week, but in most cases it will be the exception rather than the rule. Highs on both of these days will be in the vicinity of the low 80s, and there will be some healthy rain chances, probably 30 to 60 percent each days. Overall dynamics are probably better for areas inland of Interstate 10, but most of the area has a decent shot at some showers. Accumulations for both days will be on the order perhaps a tenth of an inch of rain to a few tenths of an inch, with wide variations. Nights remain warm and muggy.

Friday

Rain chances fall back a bit on Friday, and with perhaps a bit more sunshine we may see highs reach the mid-80s. Expect another warm night.

Saturday and Sunday

Alright, under the assumption that all of this could change somewhat due to timing, here’s what I expect to to happen. Saturday is likely to see continued, somewhat humid weather with high temperatures around 80 degrees. Light, scattered showers will be possible during the daytime with cloudy skies. At some point, perhaps during the evening, perhaps around midnight, or perhaps shortly after, a line of showers and possibly thunderstorms (it’s too early to really have a good sense of whether there will be any severe weather) will move through with the front. That may bring some briefly heavy rain.

By Sunday morning, most likely, this will have moved through. Most likely showers will end at that time, but cloud cover will linger throughout Sunday, and the potential for some showers may as well. We shall see. Highs on Easter Sunday will reach the upper 60s to around 70 degrees. Winds don’t look too wild after the front, maybe just 10 to 15 mph from the north. Humidity will be noticeably lower. Skies should clear out some overnight, allowing lows to drop into the 50 to 55 degree range.

Next week

Our cooler temperatures should persist at least for a few days next week, with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s. It should feel fairly spring-like!

In brief: In today’s post we have some good news, and some bad news. Let’s start with the good. There are many, many outdoor activities this weekend in the Houston region, from sporting events to public gatherings. All of these should have fine weather. The bad news is that a drought that has been building all winter is starting to become acute.

A deepening drought

We’ve been talking about drying soils a lot here because the state of Texas, particularly the eastern half of the state, has had such a dry winter and start to spring. At the beginning of October, last year, just 23.6 percent of Texas was in a ‘moderate’ drought, and only 13 percent in a ‘severe’ drought. Those numbers today, respectively, are 84.5 and 55.5 percent.

For the greater Houston area the problem has been building this winter, but until recently was not acute. As days lengthen and warm up, that is now changing, and areas of ‘severe’ and an even worse category, ‘extreme’ drought now encroaching upon Harris County. Much of Chambers, Waller, and Fort Bend counties now find themselves in an ‘extreme’ drought.

I am concerned about this because the next six months or so represents the warmest period of the year, with the Sun reaching a much higher angle in the sky, meaning that droughts develop much more quickly. Typically we see springtime rains in Houston (and don’t look now, but we’re only a couple of months from the opening of the Atlantic hurricane season), but for now the overall forecast shows no drought busters. No one wants flooding, of course. But we could use some rain events in the coming weeks.

Friday

Highs today should reach the mid- to upper-80s across the Houston area with mostly sunny skies. You know the drill as our weather has not changed much over the last week. It will be another mild evening. However conditions should begin to change tonight, likely around or after midnight, as winds shift to come from the north-northeast and bring in much drier air. As a result I expect temperatures to drop into the upper 50s by Saturday morning, with noticeably lower humidity.

Saturday

Saturday morning may see gusty winds up to about 25 mph, but these should start to fade by the afternoon hours. As for high temperatures, this will depend on the extent of any lingering cloud cover as skies will eventually turn fairly sunny. I expect highs will get into the mid- to upper-70s with low humidity. Saturday evening looks exceptional, and then most areas outside of the urban core should drop into the mid- to upper-50s on Saturday night. We know there are a ton, just a ton of outdoor activities from major sporting events to marches and parades this weekend, and the weather just looks exceptionally fine. (And if you took my long-standing advice for outdoor weddings in Houston, which is to hold them during the last two weeks of March, well done).

Sunday

Just as quickly as the front came in on Saturday, it’s likely to ease out on Sunday as the onshore flow resumes. Highs should reach around 80 degrees with mostly sunny skies and rising humidity levels. Lows on Sunday night will only fall into the low- to mid-60s.

Next week

We’re back into the mid-80s for much of next week, but there will be some overall changes to the forecast as high pressure recedes somewhat. At some point we’ll start to see partly to mostly cloudy days, and our nights will turn a little warmer and muggier (i.e. overnight lows drop to 70 degrees in Houston, rather than 65). By Wednesday or Thursday we’ll also finally start to see some slight rain chances enter the forecast.

As we get into next weekend, and remember Easter Sunday is then, rain chances may go up further. It’s still too fuzzy for confidence, but my sense is that we’ll see a stronger front trying to move through our region in 8 to 10 days, and that this will bring with it a healthier chance of more widespread rain. But whether this happens on Easter Sunday, or the day after (or heck, even not at all) remains impossible to say at this point.

For now, please enjoy what looks to be a fine weekend weather-wise in Houston.

In brief: In today’s post we discuss an exciting, upcoming space launch that we all should be rooting for. As for our weather, our warm conditions will turn slightly cooler this weekend before warming up again. And rain chances, maybe they return about a week from now.

Putting the “space” in Space City Weather

I want to thank Matt for covering the last couple of days while I was in Washington D.C. for NASA’s Ignition event. There, the space agency rolled out an exciting new plan for space exploration over the next decade, with the central achievement being the establishment of a lunar base. Houston’s Johnson Space Center, not to mention local companies such as Intuitive Machines, Axiom Space and others, are a big part of all of this. I’ve written about space for a long time, and this is the first time I think NASA has set both a meaningful goal in deep space and laid solid plans to go about achieving it.

Everyone should also be excited about the launch of Artemis II next week, likely on Wednesday evening from Florida’s Kennedy Space Center. Thousands of Houston people have worked hard toward preparing for this lunar flight during which four incredible astronauts—Reid Wiseman, Victor Glover, Christina Koch, and Jeremy Hansen (most of whom are Space City Weather readers)—will fly around the Moon for the first time in more than five decades. Theirs is a bold mission, testing new hardware, and it will be super fun to follow their adventures. The early weather for next week in Florida looks fine for a launch, but we’ll see. I’ll be traveling for that as well, so there may be some minor disruptions in posting here.

The bottom line is that we, as a city, should be proud of what’s happening in space, and Houston’s important ongoing role. Your meteorologists certainly are.

Thursday

Our weather forecast remains much as Matt has described it over the last couple of days. We’re going to see continued warm weather for a couple of days before a slight cooldown this weekend. Highs today will generally be in the mid-80s in Houston, with slightly warmer conditions for inland areas. Skies will transition from partly cloudy this morning to mostly sunny this afternoon. Winds will be from the south at about 10 mph, with stronger gusts this evening. Lows tonight will fall into the mid-60s.

Friday

Expect more of the same, with daytime temperatures possibly even a degree or two warmer. Lows on Friday night will again be in the 60s, although they will drop a little further by Saturday morning. Why? Because overnight we will see some moderately drier air moving in from the northeast. This will significantly lower our humidity for Saturday, and somewhat for Sunday.

Saturday

High temperatures will range from the upper 70s to lower 80s, with lower humidity. Winds will be from the northeast at 10 to 15 mph with higher gusts. Some locations may briefly drop into the 50s overnight on Saturday night, but it’s not like temperatures are really going to bottom out.

Sunday

By Sunday we should already begin to feel the effects of returning air from offshore, so look for high temperatures in the mid-80s, sunny skies, and moderate but rising humidity levels. Lows on Sunday night will be in the mid-60s.

Next week

This warmer pattern will continue through midweek before that persistent ridge of high pressure that has been anchored to our west finally begins to break down. This will allow for the return of some modest rain chances, which may improve even further as we head toward next weekend. I don’t want to make any promises we can’t meet, but I’ll just say we could really use some rain and the odds may start to turn in our favor a little. At the same time I’m also cognizant of the Easter holiday about 10 days from now. When we have more clarity on this forecast we will, of course, share it with you.