In brief: Houston firmly ramps into pre-summer this weekend with several chances at 90 degree highs between Saturday and Tuesday. Lower-end chances for a couple feisty thunderstorms exist today and perhaps around midweek next week before we eye a possible cooldown next weekend.

Pre-summer will be enroute to the Houston area over the next several days. That said, we’ve finally gotten some rain here. In fact, over the last 10 days, most of the area has seen anywhere from 1 to 5 inches of rainfall. Soil moisture has not entirely caught up to where it should be for this time of year, but it has improved vastly this month.

While we heat up, we will also be dodging some rain chances here and there.

Today

The area is highlighted in a marginal risk (level 1/5) for severe storms today, as there will be a very slight chance for a couple pop up storms later this afternoon. The highest chance for a couple storms would be north of I-10 and east of I-45, but with a springtime air mass, some sunshine, and instability, it’s not out of the question that a couple storms pop up outside of that quadrant of the area. Most of us will remain dry though. Highs will be in the mid to locally upper 80s today.

There may also be a couple more organized storms late this evening in Louisiana that drop north to south and could graze locations east of I-45 as well, though probably closer to Lufkin and Beaumont than Houston.

Weekend

The weekend should be mostly dry, but we cannot entirely rule out a pop-up shower or very rogue thunderstorm. Otherwise, it’ll be spring swampy with highs well into the 80s to perhaps near 90 degrees and plentiful humidity. Winds from the south at 10 to 15 mph will be what you get for the MS 150 ride this weekend. Some higher gusts over 20 mph are possible, especially in open area or on hill crests. Good luck to all the participants.

Monday & Tuesday

These should be our hottest days. While most forecast highs are into the low-90s right now, I would not be shocked if recent rains and some model tendency to get overeager lead us to see temperatures closer than 89 to 91 degrees here rather than 92 to 94 degrees. We shall see.

Other than the slightest of chances of a shower or storm with daytime heating, it looks just plain ole hot and humid. By Tuesday evening there may be a better organized line of storms dropping south from Dallas, but I currently expect it to fizzle out before getting here. Probably not an issue, but we’ll keep watch.

Later next week

Wednesday and Thursday should also be hot days with upper 80s to 90 or so. However, there is a chance of showers or a thunderstorm on those days, a slightly better chance. This may be a precursor to what could be a fairly strong cold front at the end of the week. The front may (should?) allow for us to have another refreshing series of days next weekend.

The signal in modeling is pretty stout, so I’m cautiously favoring a noteworthy cooldown next weekend. More on that Monday.

In brief: Our rain chances are not entirely going away over the next several days, but they will take a back seat to increasing temperatures. By Sunday or Monday, most of the region is likely to record their first 90-degree day of the year. Please clap.

90 degrees, soon?

After a rainy period over the last five days, which has brought 2 to 5 inches of much needed precipitation to most locations, Houston’s days will now become a little sunnier and quite a bit hotter. How hot? It is likely by Sunday or Monday that the Houston region will see its first 90-degree day.

Yes, a few spots in Houston have already hit that mark this year, but officially the region’s hottest day came on March 21 when the high temperature at Bush Intercontinental Airport reached 88 degrees. So far, our average high temperature this month has been below 80 degrees. The bottom line is that, after today, Houston is going to experience is longest, and hottest period so far of the year, as well as a foretaste of what is to come next month and beyond as summer slides into the region.

Thursday

After several mostly cloudy days, Houston will see at least partly sunny skies today, and this will allow for temperatures to generally warm into the mid-80s. As will be the case for the next week, our dewpoints will be at a level (about 70 degrees) such that our air is very humid. Get used to it. Winds during the afternoon will gust up to 20 mph or so from the south. Rain chances are not zero today, but they are close to it, with only a few very isolated, short-lived showers possible. Low temperatures tonight will only drop into the vicinity of 70 degrees.

Friday

A frontal boundary will approach the region from the north, but stall out well before moving into the Houston metro area. The question is whether instability from this front can spark any showers or thunderstorms in the Houston area. It’s a low-end possibility throughout the weekend, but perhaps the highest chance (10 to 20 percent) will occur on Friday afternoon and evening. Otherwise this should be a partly to mostly cloudy day with high temperatures in the mid- to upper 80s. Nights remain warm and muggy.

Saturday and Sunday

Both weekend days should see a mixture of sunshine and clouds. It remains to be seen whether lingering instability and daytime heating can spark any showers or thunderstorms. My sense is probably not, but it will be something to consider should you be outdoors on the MS 150 ride. Be aware of your surroundings. Otherwise, high temperatures should approach 90 degrees on Saturday, and quite possibly reach it on Sunday for large parts of Houston. Winds will be from the south, gusting up to 20 mph or so during the afternoon hours. Overnight lows probably will only reach the lower 70s.

Next week

Right now it appears our hottest weather of the year, to date, will come early next week when Monday and Tuesday bring highs of 90 degrees or thereabouts across much of the region. Each afternoon will have a slight chance of showers, driven in part by the sea breeze. Better rain chances arrive by Thursday or Friday, when some sort of a front is likely to move into the area. This should bring at least temporary relief from very warm highs and the humidity.

In brief: In today’s post we discuss why Tuesday’s widespread showers were the near-perfect type of rain that Houston can experience. We then have one more day of showers and possibly thunderstorms today before a warming trend that will last through the weekend.

Were Tuesday’s rains perfect?

Houston saw something on Tuesday that is rather rare: a near-perfect rain event. From the wee hours of the morning well into the evening we saw steady, light-to-moderate showers fall across the region. Almost everyone received 0.75 to 2 inches of rainfall. But almost no one saw heavy rainfall, which can quickly back up streets. Instead, it was just a steady rain that falls slowly enough to be absorbed into soils. It’s the perfect setup for helping to turn around a drought. Essentially, then, the rains a) came on a weekday rather than a weekend, b) did not produce street flooding but still brought meaningful amounts, and c) benefited almost everyone instead of being very hit or miss. In the Houston region we just almost never see that combination.

Wednesday

I do not expect similar perfection today. Rather I expect more sporadic showers, with some areas being missed entirely, and isolated locations possibly seeing 3 or more inches of rainfall and street flooding. This is the hit-or-miss setup more common in Houston. Showers and clouds should help to limit high temperatures to the upper 70s to around 80 degrees, with modest southeasterly winds. I expect shower activity to start to wane this afternoon and evening. As humidity levels kick up, our low temperatures tonight will only fall to around 70 degrees tonight.

Thursday

A transition day with highs in the mid-80s and partly sunny skies. Rain chances aren’t zero, but they probably aren’t much above 10 percent, either. Winds will be gusty, from the south at up to 25 mph during the afternoon.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

Prepare thyselves for a warm weekend. High temperatures will range from the mid-80s to around 90 degrees for some inland locations this weekend, with a mix of sunshine and clouds. Our humidity levels, with dewpoints in the lower 70s, will likely be the highest we have seen so far this year. So will nighttime temperatures, only dropping into the lower 70s. For MS 150 riders this weekend, winds will be pretty consistent from the south, becoming more gusty during the afternoon hours. So expect a crosswind on Saturday and mostly a tailwind on Sunday. We cannot entirely rule out a few spotty rain showers this weekend, but I don’t expect that most of us will see any rain.

Next week

Even warmer to start. I think large parts of the Houston metro area may reach 90 degrees for the first time this year, with plenty of humidity. Skies will continue to be a mix of clouds and sunshine. Some relief may arrive toward the middle or end of next week in the form of a front. This may or may not bring some showers with it.

In brief: In today’s update we take a look at increasing shower activity today and Wednesday before our rains mostly dry up. That will leave us with a more humid and increasingly warm air mass heading into the weekend. We also take a look at winds this weekend for our friends participating in the MS 150 ride.

Drier air mass is gone

After Houston saw widespread showers on Saturday a drier air mass moved in to the region on Sunday. By Monday enough drier air was holding on such that even though a disturbance moved in from the west was producing precipitation in the atmosphere, much of this was drying out before it reached the ground. The lower atmosphere is more saturated now, so those showers are breaking through.

Since midnight much of the region has received between 0.25 and 0.5 inch of precipitation, and we are likely to see ongoing rain chances today and Wednesday. The good news is that, for the most part, I expect these showers to be mostly behaved. That means that while heavy rain and street flooding are always possible, in this case I expect showers to largely be of the light-to-moderate level.

Tuesday and Wednesday

As mentioned above, we’ll see on-again, off-again showers for much of today and Wednesday. High temperatures today will likely top out in the lower 70s, but Wednesday could be a little warmer if we start to see some partially clearly skies later in the day. The rain chances should start to ebb by Wednesday afternoon or evening. By then we’ll just be left with fairly muggy air and warm nights with lows around 70 degrees.

Thursday and Friday

These will be a pair of partly sunny days with temperatures in the 80s. Thursday may be a shade cooler than Friday, but both days will see plenty of humidity and some background rain chances on the order of 20 percent. Afternoon winds will gust up to about 20 mph from the south, with lighter conditions at other times. Nights remain in the lower 70s.

Saturday and Sunday

A warming trend continues into the weekend, with highs likely in the upper 80s, and partly to mostly cloudy skies. With dewpoints in the vicinity of 70 degrees it will feel plenty humid. As for rain chances, they’re not zero, but they’re pretty low, and anything that falls should be light.

So what about winds? If you’re participating in the MS 150 ride this weekend that’s what really matters. The route on Saturday is generally westerly, and then it turns more northerly on Sunday. Winds at dawn on Saturday will be mostly southerly, at about 5 mph, so a cross wind. They’ll be stronger by the middle of the day, 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. The story will be similar on Sunday, so more of a pure tail wind that day. You should be flying that day!

Next week

Warm temperatures, with highs near 90 degrees, will continue into next week. Some sort of front may work its way into Houston by Tuesday or Wednesday, but your humble forecaster is making no concrete predictions on that score. We’ll have to see what happens.