In brief: In today’s post we briefly revisit this past weekend’s stunning weather, and look forward to when we might see similar conditions. Mostly, however, this coming week will see slightly warmer weather with modestly higher humidity.

A wonderful weekend

We complain a lot about the weather in Houston, and justifiably so I believe. But every now and then you get a spectacular weekend, which we did on Saturday and Sunday. Mrs. Berger and I had a lovely walk around the Houston Arboretum on Sunday afternoon, and there were times when I just stopped and said, “It feels so pleasant outside today.” Conditions this weekend will be mostly on the mild side, but with dewpoints around 60 degrees we will be a tad on the humid side of things. A front will arrive by this weekend, and although Saturday may see some rain showers, next Sunday may again be one of those fantastic weather days in Houston. We’ll see.

Monday

We are fully in a pattern with a pronounced onshore flow at this point, and we are going to see persistent southerly flow all week. This will present several changes to our weather. First of all, temperatures on Monday, and for the rest of the week, are generally going to be in the upper 70s. Some locations may hit 80 degrees. Skies will be partly sunny. And our nights will be warmer, with lows generally in the lower 60s. With the influx of moisture from the Gulf, and temperatures falling to dewpoint levels, we will see healthy chances of sea fog developing during the overnight hours, and persisting into the morning hours. Not all areas will see fog all week, but the threat will remain.

Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

Not much will change through the middle of the week: expect highs mostly in the upper 70s, partly sunny skies, modestly humid air, and mild nights with the potential for fog developing. We might see a slight chance of showers on Tuesday or Wednesday night, but I’m not particularly bullish.

Saturday

We’ll start to see some rain chances creep into the forecast on Friday night in response to an approaching disturbance. Rain chances will peak on Saturday, probably above 50 percent for most locations. As for accumulations it’s too early to say much with confidence, but a lot of places will probably pick up between 0.25 and 0.75 inch. Highs Saturday should be in the mid-70s, but this will depend on the arrival of a surface front. For now I’ll guess late afternoon or evening. Lows on Saturday night probably will drop into the 50s.

Sunday

As noted above, this looks to be the pick of the litter in terms of weather for the upcoming period. Highs probably will be in the vicinity of 70 degrees, with sunny skies and lower humidity, but for now those details must remain on the fuzzy side of things.

Next week

After a couple of cooler nights (Sunday night into Monday morning may get into the 40s) most of next week looks pretty mild as well. There’s no strong signal for rain showers, and I’d bet we’re back mostly in the 70s for daytime highs.

In brief: Dang nice, Houston.

Today through Sunday

This would be something of an unseasonably warm weekend anytime it occurs in winter, and to some it would be considered quite nice. After the chill of the last couple weeks, this weekend will probably feel nice to almost all. Sunshine, temps in the 70s (maybe 80?), and generally low humidity will continue.

Note how much cooler it is at the coast, with Galveston likely staying below 70 degrees. Water temperatures near the coast are in the mid-50s, which has converted the coastal Gulf into a localized air conditioning unit.

These will rebound quickly over the next week, but the combo of cold water and warm air may produce fog by Monday or Tuesday, and it will allow the island to be significantly cooler (10-15 degrees) than inland locations.

Next week

Our warmest days look to be Monday through Wednesday. Eric paid homage to the 70s yesterday, but it may be the 80s that we speak of on a couple days next week (and perhaps today). Depending on what model ensemble you choose, there’s a 20 to 40 percent chance we do it on Wednesday.

We should see shower chances infiltrate the picture beginning Tuesday however, and a weak-ish cold front looks to sneak in just after that. But it appears any cooldown will be fairly short lived, and it may be back to the 70s or 80s after a couple cool days off.

Drought update

Eric discussed the rain situation earlier this week. The latest drought update was released on Thursday and shows a small expansion of drought.

Keep in mind that this does not include the rain we saw on Tuesday (the report ends at 7 AM Tuesday). And some places saw a fair bit of helpful rain. We’ll have to see if we can cash in next week with our couple of chances. As nice as this weekend is, we probably need a couple days of soaking rain to help us out right now. If you follow weather folks on social media, you’re probably beginning to see chatter about a developing El Niño in the tropical Pacific as we head toward spring. Historically, that can skew the odds in favor of a wetter spring here in Texas, but we’re still a good way off before that would kick into gear. Something for us to keep tabs on though.

In brief: Our forecast is fairly straightforward for the next 10 days, with most every day having high temperatures in the 70s. So we’re having a little fun today by paying homage to the music from that era.

That 70s weather

After today Houston appears likely to experience a string of days with temperatures in the 70s, and our weather will enter something of a Goldilocks zone—not too hot, not too cold. As a result, we thought we’d mix things up today by adding a splash of 70s hit songs to our forecast. So as you head into the weekend, be sure and Take it Easy.

Thursday

If you’re waiting for the 70s era to kick off in terms of temperatures, today’s a day for simply Stayin’ Alive. That’s because high temperatures won’t get into the 70s, but rather will settle into the low- to mid-60s for highs. But there won’t be that chilly wind we saw on Wednesday, and as a result it should feel a little warmer and more Happy outside. Lows tonight will be warmer as well, likely only briefly falling below 50 degrees as the airmass over our region moderates.

Friday

As Rocky Mountain High pressure builds across Texas, this will be a mild, sunny day with high temperatures in the low-70s. Winds will be from the west at about 10 mph. Lows on Friday night will drop to around 50 degrees in Houston.

Saturday

This will be just about a perfect day, with highs in the mid-70s, sunny skies, low humidity, and light winds. This is the weather Dreams are made of.

Sunday

This will be mostly a Blue (sky) Sunday. However, the southerly flow becomes a little more pronounced, we will probably see a few more clouds. Still, this will be a pleasant day with modest southerly winds. I recommend spending a lot of time outside, and that you Don’t Stop ’Til You Get Enough.

Monday and Tuesday

The 70s party continues next week. However we probably will see more clouds on Monday, and perhaps some scattered showers on Tuesday when there Ain’t No Sunshine. With dewpoints rising to about 60 degrees it will feel a little more humid, but it will still feel fairly dry when you Imagine what it feels like outside during summer in Houston.

Later next week

At some point next week we may have to say Goodbye Yellow Brick Road, and leave the 70s. It may happen on Wednesday or Thursday, when a few locations reach 80 degrees, or possibly next weekend if a front drops our daily highs into the 60s. Or it may not happen for awhile longer. Regardless our weather truly looks mild for the next 10 days or so and none of us will need be Riders on the Storm. Enjoy!

In brief: With this post we’ve invited Paige Klobucnik, an atmospheric sciences student at the University of Houston, to write about Houston’s recent cold spell and better explain what happen. Matt and I would like to bring some new voices on to the site, from time to time, so let us know what you think. -Eric

Prior to our recent Arctic outbreaks, this winter had seen a mix of afternoon high temperatures in the 70s and even 80s, with a sprinkle of freezing mornings that led to some chilly days. So how did we end up with such a cold period after a mild winter? Let’s go into detail about what caused these super-low temperatures, and what might be coming next.

Essentially, Arctic air had the opportunity to finally move further south into North America this winter. There is this big mass of cold air that sits over the North Pole called the polar vortex, which is held in place by a ring of fast-moving winds called the polar jet stream. When there are rapid temperature changes in the Arctic, along with a number of other factors, we see waves start to form in the polar jet stream. As this happens the polar vortex is disrupted, causing polar air to spill southward. This produced the rapid temperature drop experienced by the region during the last 10 days of January.

These cold spells can be intimidating since our local infrastructure is not exactly designed for harsh winter weather. Fortunately, air temperatures here remained at or just above freezing while there was abundant precipitation. Areas further inland experienced ice and snow, which happens more frequently in Texas for locations that don’t have the moderating influence from the Gulf.

Now that we’re warming up a bit as we head into February, what about the rest of winter? The answer, my friend, is blowin’ in the wind. In the big picture, there are several different patterns that our atmosphere can fall into depending on the strength of trade winds that run to the west near the equator. These are El Niño and La Niña, which represent two opposing patterns that alter the climate we experience.

The best way to explain why our winter season has mostly been on the milder side is that we are experiencing a La Niña pattern. Below, I show how it looks when the conditions in the Pacific Ocean are normal. That is, not falling to either an El Niño and La Niña; trade winds blow from the east along the equator, moving warm water from South America to Asia. When this warm water moves, colder water from below moves up to displace what has been shifted. This is called upwelling as water shifts to fill any gaps.

Now when we see a La Niña pattern, like we are presently experiencing, the trade winds are even stronger, which means more warm water is being moved, and more cold water is being displaced to fill it in (more upwelling). For us in North America this means that our side of the Pacific is colder than normal, which can affect the whole continent’s climate.

How does this actually affect it? Well, I mentioned the polar jet stream that runs along the northern United States (the river of fast-moving winds that separates cold polar air from warmer tropical air), which influences temperature and helps drive precipitation across the states. When the trade winds strengthen and cold water upwells, it pushes this jet stream further north, which means that cold air is kind of stuck above us in the southern United States, leaving us with milder temps. And as for precipitation, it also keeps us on the dry side, as the jet stream can’t quite reach us to regularly deliver us storm systems.

But as we saw with the recent incursions of Arctic air, there is always a possibility of this jet stream moving further south and bringing us a taste of winter weather. It’s like this: La Niña is pushing the jet stream up, which in turn is fighting with the polar vortex and dragging it down. During the second half of January, the polar vortex won.

For the rest of winter I would expect milder temperatures to return, but remaining a bit on the colder side of what we observed entering the new year. However, given the fickle nature of La Niña I would not rule out an additional light freeze or two later this month.