In brief: Houston will see less rain and more sunshine for a few days before healthy rain chances return Friday and perhaps Saturday. We are also closely watching the evolution of a tropical disturbance that should move into the northeastern Gulf over the next 24 hours. Although it is likely to remain east of Texas, the forecast is far from certain.

Invest 93L

There has been a lot of chatter about a tropical disturbance, known as Invest 93L, which should move across Florida today and tonight into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center has increased the likelihood that this system becomes a tropical depression or tropical storm to 40 percent, but in reality we still have more questions than answers this morning.

For example, if the bulk of this activity crosses Florida and then the ‘center’ remains anchored over the Florida panhandle rather than offshore, it has very little chance to develop. If the center (which I used in quotes above, because no center is as yet observable) remains offshore then there is a better chance for this system to organize a little bit. Regardless the majority of modeling still keeps this system weak, as a tropical depression or less. For now I am not really concerned about winds and storm surge.

The bigger issue is rainfall potential, and I think there are risks across the Northern Gulf coast, from Florida to east Texas. The majority of our guidance continues to indicate that southern Louisiana is at the greatest risk for heavy rainfall during the second half of this week, with flooding distinctly possible there, but we cannot rule anything out. As soon as we have some clarity about this system—which is unlikely until after tonight, when the disturbance crosses the Florida peninsula—we will share more. At this time, we believe Houston is unlikely to see major effects. But we’ll continue to watch closely and update accordingly.

Tuesday

The upper air pattern over the Houston region still favors some showers today, but coverage and intensity should be less than on Monday. Overall I expect rain chances in the vicinity of 20 to 30 percent today, and as usual we can expect a few areas to see some decent accumulations whereas the rest of Houston sees little to no rainfall. Skies will be mostly sunny otherwise, with highs in the mid-90s. Lows tonight will only drop into the upper 70s. Winds, generally, will be light from the south.

Wednesday and Thursday

As pressures rise a little bit, and our atmosphere dries out a little in terms of precipitable water, rain chances during the middle of the week should fall back to about 10 percent daily, so maybe just a few very isolated showers along the sea breeze. With mostly sunny skies, these days should see highs somewhere in the mid-90s for most locations away from the coast. Nights will be warm and humid, as one would expect.

Friday and Saturday

By this time we should see a surge of atmospheric moisture from the Gulf, partly related to the tropical disturbance. Because that system’s evolution is unclear, so too is our forecast for Friday and Saturday. However, the most likely outcome is that Invest 93L moves into the northern Gulf coast before reaching Texas. Even so, we should see some healthy rain chances on Friday, likely above 50 percent for the region east of Interstate 45, and perhaps a little lower on Saturday. Skies will be mostly cloudy on Friday, keeping highs in the low 90s. Saturday should see a bit more sunshine, so expect highs in the mid-90s. Again this forecast is written in pencil at this point.

Sunday and next week

By Sunday or so, we should see sunnier skies and (probably) lower rain chances for awhile. Most of next week should bring highs in the mid-90s for much of Houston, so fairly typical weather for late July when Houston usually sizzles, albeit perhaps a few degrees warmer than normal.

In brief: Today’s post discusses today’s rain chances, and what kind of weather we can look forward to for the remainder of July. We also address the potential for a tropical disturbance to develop in the northern Gulf this week.

July has been mild so far

Don’t look now, but July is almost half over. Whether that is worth celebrating or mourning depends on one’s perspective. However, the next six weeks are typically the hottest period of the year in Houston. After a relatively mild start to the month so far—a majority of days have recorded highs of 95 degrees or below, the thermostat is going up. I think, from this point on for the remainder of July, we can expect the majority of days to reach 95 degrees or higher in Houston and for locations away from the coast. To be clear I don’t see a long string of 100 degree days. But we’ve reached peak summer, and it is going to feel like this outside.

Monday

With a fair amount of atmospheric moisture and lingering low pressure, Houston will see a decent chance of showers and thunderstorms again today. Like for much of this past weekend, chances will be higher along and north of Interstate 10, but the entire region will at least have the possibility of seeing some storms. Once again, these showers will be decidedly hit or miss, with the heaviest hit areas picking up 1 to 2 inches of rain, and perhaps half the region seeing no precipitation at all. Skies will otherwise be partly sunny, with high temperatures in the mid- to upper 90s. Lows will fall into the upper 70s.

Tuesday

Rain chances drop back into the 20 to 30 percent range, with any showers likely to develop during the afternoon hours. Expect highs in the mid-90s with mostly sunny skies.

Wednesday and Thursday

High pressure will likely hold sway during the middle of the week, and this should yield a pair of sunny days with highs in the mid-90s. With dewpoints in the 70s it will feel plenty humid outside, in case you were concerned about the air drying out. (I think this counts as gallows humor in Houston). Anyway, it’s gonna be summer sticky like always in Houston.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

Our weather toward the weekend may be influenced by a surge of tropical moisture (more on this below), but how precisely this will impact us remains to be seen. I think we’ll see a decent to healthy (30 to 50 percent) chance of showers on Friday, and perhaps some partly to mostly cloudy skies. This might cool highs off into the lower 90s. How long this cloud cover lingers into the weekend is not clear, but my guess is that most of Saturday and Sunday are probably mostly sunny, with highs in the mid-90s. Rain chances will be lower.

Next week

For now, most of next week looks sunny and hot, with highs in the mid-90s.

Tropics

My kids came home on Sunday evening and asked, “When’s the hurricane coming, dad?” This is how I know that certain social media out there are lighting up with rumors and discussion about a tropical disturbance that may develop into the northern Gulf later this week. This is an old frontal system that recently moved off the continental United States into the Atlantic Ocean, and will track across Florida in the next day or two. By Wednesday some sort of low pressure system should be in the northern Gulf, moving westward. So what happens after this?

Our guidance is pretty split. Some of our best models don’t develop it at all beyond a tropical disturbance, whereas some of other models (particularly AI-based guidance) is a little more bullish in developing a tropical depression or tropical storm. If that happens, the most likely outcome is that this tropical system plows into southern Louisiana, bringing a high chance of rain there during the second half of this week.

As for Texas in general, and Houston in particular, most likely the major effects (if any) from this system will remain east of our region. However, with the disturbance not even developed, and potential impacts three to five days away, there is not much I’m willing to say for certain. We’ll continue to watch it, but our overall concern level is quite low at this time.

In brief: Houston has enjoyed a relatively mild start to July, thanks to daily rain chances helping to keep a lid on temperatures. That pattern will persist through the weekend before classic summertime heat arrives next week in the region.

A fairly mild start to July

The first 10 days of July have brought fairly mild conditions, with high temperatures generally in the low- to mid-90s, and overnight lows in the low- to mid-70s. Rain showers and thunderstorms peppered here and there have also kept the afternoon heat from really feeling too punishing. We’ve been enjoying this pattern due to the region lying between two high pressure systems that have baked other parts of the country. Alas, all good things must end. Houston’s weather will remain unsettled, but with mild temperatures, through Sunday or Monday. But after that we’re headed into the mid- and then upper-90s for much of next week as mid-July brings proper Houston heat.

Friday

Houston did not see much shower activity on Thursday, and I think showers and thunderstorms will be fairly scattered to isolated today as well. Mostly sunny skies should allow high temperatures to reach the low 90s for areas closer to the coast, and mid-90s further inland. Southerly winds will be a little more pronounced than we have experienced of late, perhaps gusting up to 20 mph. Any rains will slacken this evening, with a calm night expected in the upper 70s.

Saturday or Sunday

Both weekend days will see healthy rain chances, likely 50 percent or higher. But these will not be all-day showers, and in fact I expect sunshine most of the time. It will be the kind of thing where the showers move in and then, generally, move out. Areas along and north of Interstate 10 are most likely to see stronger showers and thunderstorms, and some areas may pick up a quick 1 to 2 inches of rain in the heaviest storms. Most of us probably will record 0.25 inch of rain over the weekend, or less, however. Like we’ve been saying for several days, these showers will be hit-or-miss. Highs both days should be in the lower 90s with fairly light southerly winds.

Monday

This will be a bit of a transition day, with highs maybe holding in the low- to mid-90s, and still perhaps a 40 percent chance of rain. But this is probably the last day where we can have some expectation of showers and thunderstorms.

Next week

Highs will move into the mid- to upper-90s for the rest of next week, with mostly sunny days and warm, humid nights. I don’t have much expectation of rainfall before next Saturday or Sunday, and perhaps not even then.

Have a wonderful weekend, everyone!

In brief: In today’s post we discuss lower rain chances for the rest of the work week, before an uptick this weekend. Also, we take a deeper look at an updated forecast for the remainder of the Atlantic hurricane season, which has had a sneakily impactful start.

2025 Atlantic hurricane season

So far this Atlantic hurricane season has been a non-event for the greater Houston area. However two of the storms that have developed this season have created significant impacts elsewhere. Most everyone reading this is familiar with the catastrophic flooding in the Texas Hill Country last weekend. This was driven by the remnants of Tropical Storm Barry, which made landfall near Tampico, Mexico and then wandered around before stalling over Texas. Then, Tropical Storm Chantal made landfall in South Carolina on July 6, and brought record flooding to parts of North Carolina a few days ago.

Therefore, while we have not had any hurricanes yet (which is normal) this has been an impactful season overall so far. On Wednesday forecasters at Colorado State University released an updated forecast for the 2025 season, and they slightly lowered their total of named storms (17 to 16) and hurricanes (9 to 8) as part of this update. “The primary reason for the slight decrease in the outlook is both observed and predicted high levels of Caribbean shear,” the forecasters stated. “High levels of Caribbean shear in June/July are typically associated with less active hurricane seasons.”

While this ostensibly good news, we have already seen in the last 10 days that even relatively weak tropical systems can cause significant problems, both in terms of damage and loss of life. And given the overall accuracy of seasonal forecasts, a slight modification like this is more or less “in the noise.” The reality is that, for Houston, prime time for hurricane season will come in August and September, so we are still in the very early innings.

Thursday and Friday

Unlike the last couple of days, we are not seeing much shower activity offshore this morning. That’s partly because the level of moisture in the atmosphere is a little bit lower. This should lead to fewer clouds today and Friday, along with less coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Overall rain chances are probably about 30 percent. However, where there is rain it could be briefly intense, as there is still the potential for isolated strong storms. Because we will see more sunshine, the Houston area can expect temperatures to rise into the low- to mid-90s, so a little bit warmer than the last couple of days. Winds will be from the south, and may be a bit gusty on Friday afternoon.

Saturday and Sunday

Slightly higher moisture levels, in addition to a more supportive atmosphere, will lead to increased rain chances this weekend. I’d put them at about 60 percent for both days. Overall accumulations for most locations will probably be in the low tenths of an inch, but we could see a few bullseyes of 1 inch or more. With a few more clouds we can probably expect high temperatures for most locations to top out in the lower 90s, but it will still be plenty humid with muggy nights.

Next week

Some rain chances will probably linger into early next week, but then I expect mostly sunny conditions for most of next week. High temperatures in the mid- to upper-90s are likely, but I would not lock them in quite yet. Regardless, I do think it’s going to feel close to full-on summer out there for Houston so steel thyselves.