In brief: Houston’s forecast finally has some healthy rain chances in it, which marks a notable change from the last several weeks (months for some locations). We also look ahead to notably cooler weather arriving in Houston about one week from today.

Wednesday

Houston broke its multi-day streak of sunny days on Tuesday with mostly cloudy conditions. Some areas even saw some light precipitation. These conditions combined to keep highs below 80 degrees for most of the region, including our official high of just 74 degrees at Bush Intercontinental Airport.

Today will be somewhat similar, we think. We could see a smattering of rain showers again, and there will be some clouds. However I think there will be a little more sunshine, and this should help nudge high temperatures back up toward 80 degrees. Low temperatures will probably drop into the mid-60s tonight, with cooler conditions for outlying areas.

Thursday

This will be a straightforward forecast, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the lower 80s. With moderate winds turning easterly we should see an influx of some slightly drier air, and this will bring humidity levels down a bit. Lows on Thursday night should again drop into the mid-60s in Houston, with cooler conditions for outlying areas.

Friday and Saturday

By mid-day Friday we should start to see rising moisture levels in the atmosphere again, and this will increase both humidity and rain chances. The most likely period of rain will come between Friday night and Saturday afternoon, with overall chances probably around 50 percent for most locations. Amounts do not look super impressive, with most locations likely seeing a tenth of an inch of rain, or two.

Highs on both days will be in the vicinity of 80 degrees, with warm nights in the upper 60s. Skies will likely be mostly cloudy, with a fair amount of humidity. I do expect the showers to end, or be ending by late Saturday afternoon or early evening, so you should see fair conditions in the upper 70s during the trick-or-treating hour.

Sunday and Monday

To end the weekend and start next week I expect a pair of partly sunny days with highs in the low- to mid-80s. With dewpoints in the 70s it will feel pretty muggy outside as well.

Later next week

By Tuesday or more probably Tuesday night we should see the arrival of the region’s next real cold front, and by all accounts this one should have some staying power. We may well see some showers and thunderstorms with the front’s passage. After this we are going to see significantly cooler weather, with highs perhaps around 70 degrees and lows in the 50s or possibly even 40s for some inland locations. This cooler air could stick around through next weekend. All of the details on this front are to be determined still, but a significant pattern change does legitimately appear to be on the way.

In brief: Houston will have some chances for spotty showers today, and then again on Friday and Saturday. Better rain chances may come around a week from today, when the region’s next cold front comes barreling through.

Tuesday

If one checks the Houston radar this morning there are actual rain showers there, but they are pretty far from the city, down near Port Lavaca and Indianola. They are slowly moving to the northeast, toward Matagorda. Could we see some of this activity eventually spill into the city of Houston later today? Possibly, but I would only rate rain chances for most of us in Harris and surrounding counties at 10 or 20 percent. However an increase in atmospheric moisture should lead to at least a partly cloudy day, a change from the full sunshine we’ve been experiencing. Expect highs of around 80 degrees. Lows tonight will be warmer, in the upper 60s.

Wednesday

This should be a partly to mostly sunny day with highs in the low- to mid-80s. Rain chances will again be in the vicinity of 10 or 20 percent in the Houston region later in the day. Expect lows in the upper 60s.

Thursday

Thursday starts out mostly sunny, and we should see highs generally in the lower 80s. We may briefly see a northeasterly flow on Thursday that will allow for some drier air to move into the region. After a humidity rise on Tuesday and Wednesday, this could briefly bring it back down to more comfortable levels on Thursday evening and overnight. My sense is this could allow lows to drop into the lower 60s in Houston on Thursday night, but we shall see.

Friday and Saturday

Atmospheric moisture levels will recover sometime on Friday, and the extent to which moisture levels rise is key to whether we see much rain on Friday or Halloween. Highs Friday will be about 80 degrees, with sunny skies. We may see a 20 percent chance of rain during the afternoon or evening hours. On Saturday there may be a few more clouds, with highs in the low- to mid-80s. Rain chances could be as high as 40 percent on Saturday. I expect any shower activity (if it does materialize) will probably be gone by late Saturday afternoon, so I don’t anticipate too many issues with trick-or-treating.

Sunday

This looks like a warm-ish day for early November, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid-80s.

Next week

We’ll remain in a warm, mid-80s pattern to start next week. At some point, perhaps later on Tuesday, Tuesday night, or early Wednesday, a fair strong cold front should move into the region. There is a pretty decent chance this front will bring some showers and thunderstorms with it, ushering in some much needed rainfall. It is still too early to have full confidence in meaningful precipitation, but I’m hopeful. Post-front, I expect highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s for at least a few days next week. Details on all of this to come!

In brief: In today’s post we discuss Houston’s typical high temperatures on Halloween, and what conditions will be like this year. Also, is there another decently strong cold front coming through any time soon?

Halloween highs

The first thing to know about temperatures in Houston on Halloween is that they bounce around a lot. At this time of year we can still feel almost summer-like outside, and we can get some really robust cold fronts. The historical range of highs on October 31 in Houston runs from a low maximum temperature of 47 degrees (set in 1925) to 88 degrees (2004).

Over the last century, the average high temperature has trended about 1 to 2 degrees warmer. Normal highs are now in the upper 70s. This year will be on the warmer side, with highs likely in the low- to mid-80s. I don’t think we’ll approach the the record high of 88 degrees, but it will feel fairly muggy outside. Anyway, by trick-or-treating time temperatures should have fallen into the upper 70s, so it will be pretty comfortable unless you’ve got a warm, woolly costume.

Speaking of Halloween, I had a Vivint doorbell installed last year, and we’ve been having great fun here with Halloween chimes to surprise unsuspecting visitors. Changing the chimes is super easy to do.

Monday

Broadly speaking, Houston’s weather for the next week or so will be warmer, and a bit more humid. Today will be mostly sunny, with highs in the low- to mid-80s. Winds will be from the east at about 5 to 10 mph. Humidity levels will be modest. Lows tonight will be in the mid-60s.

Tuesday and Wednesday

With dewpoints recovering into the 60s, these days will both see a few more clouds and somewhat higher humidity. Highs will reach the low- to mid-80s. Rain chances over Houston will be about 20 percent on Tuesday, but areas southwest of the Houston region, toward Matagorda Bay, have a better chance, perhaps 40 percent or higher. Nights become warmer and muggier, in the upper 60s.

Thursday

Some slightly drier air may work its way into our region on Thursday, allowing for a slight dip in humidity. Expect highs in the lower 80s, with nighttime lows in the mid-60s.

Friday and Saturday

Both of these days should see a mix of sunshine and clouds, with highs in the low-to-mid 80s. I expect humidity levels to rise back up some. It won’t be oppressively humid, but it will feel humid for late October. Rain chances on both days are about 30 percent, but I want to see a little more data before having confidence in a precipitation forecast. In the big picture, however, overall chances are trending down, which is good for trick-or-treaters, but bad for our region’s drying soils.

Sunday, Monday, and next week

The early part of next week looks warm and mostly sunny, with high temperatures in the mid- to upper-80s. If that sounds uncharacteristically warm for early November, you’re correct. However the forecast models are continuing to suggest that a decently strong fall front will arrive seven to nine days from now, perhaps around next Tuesday, with a solid chance of precipitation accompanying it. We can hope.

In brief: Drought continues to expand across the Houston area with continued sunshine. More of that to come, but we are watching some potential for rain by late next week or around Halloweekend. Don’t alter your plans yet though, as we have a lot of questions still in front of us.

We’ve done well this week with lows generally in the 50s and some lower 60s. But we are about to change things just a bit. More 60s for lows and fewer 50s. But not much hotter during the daytime. Rain, I hardly know you.

The on again/off again relationship with drought that we’ve had for the last 4 to 5 years continues to escalate back into “going steady” mode. Drought now covers over 80 percent of the Houston region, with over 25 percent classified as severe or extreme. Do we expect rain over the next week or so?

Not really, but as Eric noted yesterday, it does appear that some kind of system is poised to impact the area around next weekend, so perhaps we will be able to ease up a little bit on the drought if that comes through. In the meantime, it’s just more of the same, really.

Today through Sunday

If it’s not wall to wall sunshine this weekend, it’ll be close. We probably stand to see some higher clouds on Sunday, but today and tomorrow look like sunscreen and ozone days. Ground ozone will be high, so air quality will be poor. Highs should be in the mid-80s today and tomorrow and lower 80s on Sunday with the clouds. Overnight lows in the 60s will be held up a bit as humidity slowly returns. Winds will be gusty at times, especially Saturday.

Early next week

Cloud cover should persist to some extent early next week with just a stray shower chance, mainly south or west of Houston. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s and lows should continue in the 60s.

Later next week

Obviously with Halloween next Saturday, everyone is focused on that forecast. It does still appear that some kind of system will impact us Friday or Saturday. If I had to place bets, I would probably put most of my chips on Saturday right now. That does not mean Halloween will be a washout; things could easily push through 12 hours before evening fun or even after midnight. Or the forecast could change completely We’re not good enough at this to tell you specifically 8 days in advance. However, the timeline of a system with potential for rain and thunderstorms either Friday or Saturday is the going forecast right now.

One thing to watch will be to see if the remnant moisture of what should become major Hurricane Vance this weekend can get funneled into the U.S. and hook up with this system late next week. So, yes, that could be able to produce locally decent rainfall. But could that go into interior Texas? Not make it here at all? More questions than answers right now, but let’s hope for some rain — just not around Trick or Treat time!