In brief: Houston’s best chance at rain remains Saturday, where some parts of the area could see a stronger thunderstorm. Still, it will be a bit of an uneven distribution of rainfall, with some areas likely seeing little rain when all is said and done. Easter looks cool and dreary but overall, not very disruptive.

Pretty much as expected on Wednesday morning, most of the area was void of meaningful rainfall yesterday. So where did it rain? Go north.

From the Brazos Valley to just near Lake Conroe saw anywhere from 1 to 3 inches of rain, as did a small bullseye south of Lake Livingston and in Sam Houston National Forest. The 2.81″ of rain in College Station was a record for April 2nd and the wettest day of 2026 with the most rain measured there since October 25th of last year. Good news for that area. For us? Frustrating, but that’s how it goes. Are the odds better tomorrow? Let’s discuss.

Today

Today should see clouds, some sun, and a few mostly inconsequential showers around the region. A few places may see up to a half-inch in a steadier downpour but most of us will see minimal rainfall or nothing at all. Highs will be in the mid-80s.

Saturday

The front half of the day will probably much like Thursday and today across most of the area. We cannot rule out some passing showers, but primarily it will be cloudy with some sunny breaks, warm, and humid. A line of thunderstorms should begin developing near College Station in the early afternoon and drop south and east into the Houston area by late afternoon. Some of these storms could be on the stronger side, and the area is highlighted in a marginal risk (1/5) for severe weather tomorrow.

As the storms push toward Houston, we may see the line become a bit more scattered in nature. Areas west of I-45 and north I-10 still stand the best odds of seeing appreciable rainfall on the order of 1″ or more. There are some signs that the boundary may stall near Houston or just south and east. That could allow for some additional rain to fire up through Saturday evening and overnight. Rest assured, we have alerted the Easter Bunny to wipe his paws at the door.

Don’t focus on the exact rainfall totals forecast from the HRRR model below, but you get the sense of how sporadic it may be, with some areas easily seeing 1 to 2 inches, while others see little to no rain at all.

Generally speaking though, we should see the rain trend toward less coverage and intensity from late evening to overnight.

Easter Sunday

With the front stalled out near the coast or just inland, we should see at least some low clouds, drizzle, and rain showers around south and east of Houston. So, if you’ll be attending any sunrise services, you may need a poncho. Some steadier rain is possible on Easter morning south of the region, toward Matagorda Bay or Corpus Christi. Highs on Sunday will be held back due to cooler air and cloud cover and may not get out of the upper 60s in much of the area.

Monday

Clouds or a shower may even remain with us into Monday morning, but we should see brightening skies with highs in the low 70s. Morning lows will be in the 50s.

Tuesday and Wednesday

A generally nice pair of days is setting up for midweek with highs in the mid to upper 70s and some sunshine. We could see a few extra clouds on Wednesday, along with a chance of a shower. But for the most part it looks quiet. Our coolest morning will be Tuesday, with lows in the 40s and 50s.

Later next week

We look to get back to a more active spring pattern later next week with at least the mention of shower or thunderstorm chances each day. As of right now, nothing in particular is standing out, but hopefully we can get some parts of the area a little more rainfall. We shall see.

In brief: Houston has a mixed bag of rain chances for the next few days, with Saturday still looking like the most bullish chance at rainfall. Despite warm, humid conditions in the near term, much cooler weather is expected to arrive on Sunday.

Quick notes

First off, I want to thank Eric for his kind post on Tuesday regarding my news of departure from Houston this summer. I am thankful for the opportunity to stay involved with Space City Weather as much as I have always been though.

Second, I left off one additional word of thanks in my post Monday, and that was to Reliant for being such an amazing supporter and sponsor for Space City Weather. Really, they just let us do our thing, hands off, and in return we periodically throw some useful messaging and information on what they provide to our audience. It feels like it’s been win-win, and I just want to make sure to share my appreciation and gratitude for their support.

Last, I want to congratulate everyone in the Houston area (and beyond) that has been involved in the Artemis mission. I mean…wow. The mission is of course nowhere near completed yet, but to be able to share that moment with my kids, a moment that those of us born after the early 70s have never experienced was truly special. And it’s not like we just watched the launch and then went about the evening. No, we fired back up NASA’s mission stream before bed to check on them. And we will be doing that many more times for this and future launches. I am hopeful this spurs new interest in space and support of science. Time and again it’s been proven that with human ingenuity and science, great achievements are possible. To the many folks that have brought us back to this point, thank you.

Onward…

Thursday and Friday

If you were lucky yesterday, you saw some rain. I literally looked outside, said “it’s raining,” and in the time it took me to comprehend that it was raining, it stopped. I’m not exaggerating whatsoever. “Blink and you might miss it” applied. Some folks did do okay though. The Sealy area saw over 0.75″ of rain in spots, including a 1.12″ from a Harris County Flood Control District gauge north of San Felipe. There was also a corridor of heavier rainfall north of Downtown with 1.25″ at a CenterPoint gauge along Tidwell Road and 1.16″ at 59 & 610.

Yesterday’s rainfall came from south to north moving showers as gusty winds and Gulf moisture piled in. Yesterday was also one of the most uncomfortable days of this spring with the humidity. Today’s rain chances will be slightly different. The setup features showers and storms that are approaching Aggieland from the north and west as a boundary nudges toward the region. It’s unlikely that those storms are going to make it into the Houston Metro in an organized fashion. But some disorganized showers are already occurring across the area and a few storms are possible later this morning in places like Navasota or Magnolia or The Woodlands.

Friday will probably just feature a smattering of some light to moderate showers and nothing worse. Good news if, you’ll be attending the Dash game! Highs will be in the low to mid-80s both today and tomorrow with lows stuck in the 70s.

Saturday

It appears that the first half of this weekend will feature our best chance for more widespread rain. That said, there continues to be some model disagreement on how resilient the coverage of that rain will be. In general, expect a solid line of showers and thunderstorms, including some that could be on the stronger side moving into the Brazos Valley early on Saturday afternoon. Those should begin to move into northwestern parts of the Houston Metro (Katy, Cypress, Magnolia north to Conroe) by late afternoon. The line of storms may peak as it enters the northwest fringe of the Houston area but then begin to fracture or fizzle during the evening hours as it moves south and east from there.

As of right now I would expect the best chances of a half inch or more of rainfall on Saturday to be north of I-10 and west of I-45, with the lowest chances south of I-10 and west of Highway 288. Rain totals may end up ranging from a quarter inch in the Wharton area to a half inch or so at the coast to 1.5 or 2 inches northwest of Houston. We’ll fine tune this again tomorrow.

Sunday

Clouds and light showers may linger on Sunday, especially south and east of Houston. It will also turn sharply cooler on Sunday. Expect highs near 70 degrees north and west to low or mid-70s south and east. An additional disturbance may pass to the south of our area Sunday evening providing a slight uptick in rain chances for the Matagorda Bay region into Galveston.

Next week

Cloud cover may linger into Monday morning, along with shower chances near the coast before things clear out a bit. This should lead to a decent Monday afternoon and Tuesday, with highs in the 70s. Morning lows will be in the 50s or even some 40s!

Rain chances may begin to slowly return after Tuesday with gradual warming.

In brief: In today’s post we discuss this evening’s liftoff of four astronauts to the Moon, with fine weather conditions expected for the launch window. Closer to home we remain in a warm and muggy pattern, although Houston will start to see increasing rain chances today. Saturday still looks dynamic ahead of a cooler and gray Easter Sunday.

Update on Artemis II

I’m in Florida this morning for the historic launch of Artemis II, during which four astronauts—who have been our neighbors here in Houston for at least the last decade—are scheduled to fly to the Moon. The two-hour launch window opens at 6:24 pm ET this evening, and local weather conditions are favorable for liftoff. There is always the chance of technical issues with the rocket or spacecraft, but if not, we’re sending humans back into deep space for the first time in more than 50 years. And these are really great people, Reid Wiseman, Victor Glover, Christina Koch, and Jeremy Hansen, whom we can all be proud of and cheer on. Following the launch window opening, there will be a full Moon at 8:11 pm ET. Seems fitting. My colleage and I at Ars Technica will be providing full coverage if you’re interested in knowing more.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

Alright, back to local weather. There won’t be much change over the next three days so I am lumping them together. We are going to see continued warm weather, with daytime highs in the range of the mid-80s, plenty of humidity, and very warm nights with temperatures only falling into the lower 70s. Southerly winds will also be frisky, gusting up to 25 mph or higher during the afternoon hours. We are also going to see some bonafide rain chances, but these showers will be very hit or miss. A few areas may see some afternoon thunderstorms whereas the majority of us only sees gray skies. Overall I expect most of Houston to pick up a tenth of an inch of rain, or two, over the next couple of days. But a few areas will get more.

Saturday and Sunday

Our weather this weekend will turn a bit more dynamic. We’re still outside the range of high-resolution models, but generally the picture is fairly straightforward. Saturday morning looks warm and muggy, but I don’t anticipate much in the way of shower activity. So basically a continuation of previous days.

However, rain chances will increase during the afternoon hours, with the greatest likelihood of rain from mid-afternoon on Saturday to the early morning hours on Easter Sunday. For now overall conditions are not particularly supportive for severe weather, with the primary threat heavy rain. I don’t want to over-set expectations here. My hope is that most of the region receives a good soaking, with 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain. Given the high atmospheric levels we cannot exclude the possibility of heavy rainfall briefly backing up streets, but I don’t think this will be too much of an issue.

By Sunday morning it will feel cooler outside, with temperatures in the upper 50s for most locations. If the front lingers near the coast for awhile, we may see some scattered showers on Sunday morning, especially for areas along and south of Interstate 10. Skies should remain mostly cloudy regardless, with daytime highs in the upper 60s. Lows on Sunday night will drop into the mid-50s in Houston, with cooler conditions for outlying areas.

Next week

Fine, spring-like weather will hang on through the middle of next week, with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s. Daytime highs may rebound to around 80 degrees toward the end of next week, when some modest rain chances remain.

In brief: In today’s post I share a few words of appreciation for Matt Lanza, my long-time partner here. As for the forecast, we have a very welcome return of rain chances after three weeks, and the latest on the timing of a front just before Easter Sunday.

Matt heads north

You probably saw the news yesterday that Matt’s family is moving from Houston to Connecticut, and I fully support his decision and the reasons he articulated for doing so. Houston does have a fraught relationship with extreme weather—I’ve lived here for 30 years and some of these experiences helped formulate my career. Matt is a critical part of what we do here. Almost from the beginning of Space City Weather he has been an integral part of building this site, helping to set its editorial tone, and playing an important role in the forecasts we hit, and our occasional misses. In a world that can be callous, he is kind, thoughtful, and compassionate. I’m thrilled he will continue to be involved here. As for me, the majority of my family lives here in the Houston area, my kids are here, and perhaps one day so will my grandkids. I cannot imagine leaving them, so you’re stuck with me.

Tuesday

Today is probably our final day with mostly sunny skies for most of the day. This will allow high temperatures to reach the mid-80s for most of the area, with a warm southerly flow at the surface. Winds may gust up to 20 mph, or a touch higher, this afternoon. Hopefully this will help bring down some of the final tree pollen. We’ve got to be nearing the end of that season, right? We may also see some scattered, very light showers today but anything that reaches the surface will be very light. Lows tonight will only drop to about 70 degrees, very warm for this time of year.

Wednesday and Thursday

These will be warm days, with highs likely in the range of the mid-80s and plenty of humidity. However, instead of mostly sunny skies we will see more clouds, and along with that higher rain chances. Odds are better north of Interstate 10, as a front supporting rain showers will be stalling out north of the metro area. Still, everyone has a decent shot of rain on both days, and I expect accumulations of roughly a tenth of an inch to a few tenths of an inch. Some pockets of heavier rainfall are possible, so I wouldn’t rule out a few bullseyes of 1 inch or more. We’ll keep an eye on things. Overnight lows remain very sultry for this time of year, perhaps only falling into the low 70s.

Friday

Rain chances will fall back to 10 or 20 percent on Friday, but skies should remain mostly cloudy. Expect highs in the mid-80s with another warm night.

Saturday and Sunday

Temperature wise, Saturday will start out like the rest of the week, warm and muggy. Light showers will be possible during the first part of the day. The timing of the front is still a little bit uncertain, but at this point I anticipate the best chance for showers (along with the potnetial for thunderstorms and heavy rainfall) will come between Saturday afternoon and early Sunday morning. In terms of accumulations I’ll guess most locations pick up an additional 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rainfall, but this forecast is still evolving.

At some point on Saturday evening, or perhaps around midnight, drier and cooler air will begin flowing in from the north. Temperautres by Easter Sunday morning probably will be in the upper 50s, with a moderate northerly breeze. Highs on Sunday should be in the vicinity of 70 degrees, but let’s wait an see. The biggest question is rain showers. I do think there will be some lingering activity on Sunday morning, but I’m hopeful this will clear out during the afternoon hours. Skies will remain cloudy regardless. Lows on Sunday night could drop to around 50 degrees outside of Houston, with slightly warmer conditions in the city.

Next week

Sunshine returns next week, and we should see some lovely spring-time weather. Look for days in the 70s through Wednesday, probably, with nights in the 50s. Humidity should remain pleasantly low through Wednesday or Thursday, so again, some very nice weather to look forward to!