In brief: Houston will be hot and sunny for the next couple of days, with only some scattered shower chances. The forecast begins to change this weekend, as Hurricane Beryl moves into the southern Gulf of Mexico. After that there are a lot of questions about what happens next, and this post attempts to address them as best we can.

Some thoughts on Beryl-mania

I want to start today’s post with some thoughts about Hurricane Beryl and hurricane season anxiety. In the last day or so Matt and I have been flooded with questions about this storm and its potential to impact the greater Houston area. Is the hurricane coming here? Will we flood? Are we going to see storm surge? How damaging will the winds be? There is just a ton of noise and chatter out there, and I want to say two things about it.

First, we don’t have the answers to a lot of the questions being asked. There are no absolutes in a five-, six-, or seven-day hurricane forecast. However, as I’ll discuss in the forecast below, it remains likely that significant wind and surge impacts from Beryl will go south of the Houston area. We’re most closely watching for increased rain chances next week. That doesn’t mean the forecast can’t change. But as we’ve been saying for a couple of days, in the big picture Beryl is likely to move inland into Mexico or South Texas, far from Houston. If our thinking changes on that, we’ll shout it from the rooftops.

Second, it’s going to be a long season, y’all. I get it. Beryl is a pretty ominous storm, because its intensity and rapid intensification are wholly abnormal for late June and early July. We’ve never seen this with a tropical system before, and it underscores the notion that this will be a hyperactive Atlantic hurricane season. However, the Texas coast has about three more months during which we are going to have to pay close attention to the tropics. Almost certainly there will be bigger threats than Beryl to Houston this summer, and times for great anxiety. This is not one of them.

Put simply, this is a marathon and not a sprint.

So please trust us when we say this: If you need to be concerned about a tropical system—like stocking-up-at-the-grocery-store or preparing-to-evacuate levels of concern—we are going to let you know as soon as possible. We just haven’t seen that signal yet from Beryl.

Wednesday

The story for the next couple of days will be one of heat as a high pressure ridge mostly holds sway. High temperatures will be in the mid- to to upper-90s through Friday or Saturday. Today we’ll see mostly sunny skies, with light southerly winds. There will be the usual smattering of afternoon and early evening shower chances along the sea breeze, but any showers that develop should be fairly scattered.

Thursday and Friday

These should be the hottest days of the upcoming forecast period, with highs in the upper 90s except for coastal areas, which will be a few degrees cooler. Skies will be mostly sunny with only perhaps a 10 or 20 percent chance of showers this afternoon. The only concern for fireworks on Thursday, the Fourth of July, will be temperatures which should still be sultry and in the upper 80s shortly after sunset.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

Rain chances will increase starting Saturday, and then persist through much of next week. From this point forward our weather will be guided by the track and evolution of Hurricane Beryl, and the potential for a trailing tropical system (Invest 96L) that may bring some additional moisture into Texas later next week. If I had to make a forecast for the weekend, I’d go with partly sunny skies and highs in the mid-90s on Saturday, with the potential for showers; and partly sunny skies on Sunday, highs in the low-90s, and perhaps a 50 percent chance of rain. I do think the better rain chances, and any potential for flooding, will hold off until at least Monday.

Hurricane Beryl

Beryl remains a very powerful hurricane this morning, with 145-mph sustained winds and a central pressure of 952 mb (which is rising, an indication of some slow weakening). It will pass near, or strike the southern edge of Jamaica today, exposing the entire Caribbean island to severe winds, heavy rains, and a large storm surge. This is a reasonable worst-case hurricane for the island, which will be subject to both coastal and inland flooding, in addition to major damage from winds.

Beryl is forecast to weaken as it crosses the Caribbean Sea later this week as it encounters some wind shear, before reaching the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Thursday night or Friday morning. It is likely to be a Category 2 or Category 3 hurricane at this time, although there is some uncertainty in this. As it passes over land, Beryl should weaken further before entering the Gulf of Mexico later on Friday.

So what happens then? For Texas residents, that is it the big question. And there are a range of possibilities. Based upon my interpretation of the various hurricane models we could see everything from a tropical storm moving inland into the Mexico coast, near Tampico, on Sunday; to a Category 1 or Category 2 hurricane striking Corpus Christi on Monday. In the latter scenario, since Beryl would remain over water longer, it would have more time to re-strengthen over the Gulf of Mexico.

A majority of the hurricane focused models, including HAFS and HMON, favor the “tropical storm into Mexico” scenario, as does the European model and several other solutions. I’m sure a lot of social media attention will be paid to the GFS model this morning, as it brings a hurricane to the Texas coast between Brownsville and Corpus Christi early next week. But for the time being, this looks to be an outlier compared to most of our other guidance.

The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center, which is shown above and will be updated again at 10 am CT, shows a tropical storm/borderline Category 1 hurricane striking the Mexico coast about 50 miles south of Brownsville. I agree with their thinking.

Needless to say, for the upper Texas coast, there would be differing effects from these various scenarios. For Houston, I am not too concerned about winds—for now the worst I’d expect to see is some tropical storm force wind gusts on Sunday or Monday. Seas may get a few feet higher, like they did with Tropical Storm Alberto a couple of weeks ago. But again, for now, I’m not expecting a major storm surge event. The biggest and most widespread impact I expect to see is rainfall.

Beryl should bring some heavy rainfall to parts of Mexico and Texas starting on Sunday, and into next week. The issue is that as the storm crosses the Gulf of Mexico, the high pressure ridge to its north will start to break down, and its steering currents will weaken some. (This is the source of the uncertainty in its track over the Gulf). As a result Beryl may slow down some and have the opportunity to bring heavier rainfall over a couple of days. Please don’t misunderstand me, I am not saying this is another Hurricane Harvey.

In any case, for Houston, the best chance of rainfall will likely come during the Monday through Wednesday period. My expectation right now is that most of the area receives a manageable 2 to 5 inches of rainfall. But there is some risk of higher totals. I consider this to be a lower probability, but given the influx of tropical moisture into the state of Texas next week we cannot rule out higher bullseyes and the potential for flooding.

I apologize for the lack of concrete answers, but so it goes in tropical forecasting. A good deal of uncertainty remains. At this time my sense is that Beryl goes far enough south to have modest effects on the upper Texas coast, besides increasing rain chances next week. But there remains some risk of more direct and serious effects. We’ll be watching this possibility closely and keep you updated with another post this afternoon. And for information about broader effects across Texas and Mexico, please visit our companion site The Eyewall.

In brief: In the main, our hot and sunny weather will continue through the rest of the work week. We have no weather concerns for the Fourth of July, aside from heat. Our overall pattern may change this weekend, with slightly cooler temperatures and increasing rain chances due to moisture from Hurricane Beryl.

Fourth of July forecast

The forecast for the forthcoming holiday, on Thursday, is straightforward. High pressure should be firmly in control of our weather, and this will lead to a hot and sunny day. High temperatures on Thursday will hit the upper 90s for much of the city, with coastal areas remaining in the lower 90s. Winds will be light, from the south, at 5 to 10 mph.

Temperatures at the time of fireworks, about 9 pm for most locations, will be in the upper 80s, with partly to mostly clear skies. There is only about a 10 percent chance of rainfall during the daytime, so there should be no concerns on that score. However, our ‘excitable dogs’ scale will be a 10 out of 10 given that most of our canine friends do not enjoy fireworks. Enjoy the holiday, everyone!

Tuesday

Today, like much of our recent weather, will be mostly sunny and hot. Most of the city will reach the upper 90s, with light winds. There remains plenty of moisture in the atmosphere, but high pressure (which promotes sinking air, rather than the rising air conducive to showers) will keep a lid on activity for the most part. Expect only perhaps a 10 percent chance of rain this afternoon and evening. Lows tonight will only drop to around 80 degrees for most locations.

Wednesday

Temperatures will be warm again on Wednesday, although we might be a few degrees cooler. In addition, we may see a few showers streaming in from the coast, so I’m going to bump rain chances up to about 20 percent. As for humidity, well, do you have to ask about humidity in Houston in July?

Thursday and Friday

The end of the week will see more hot and sunny weather. We’re taking temperatures in the mid- to upper 90s, with lots of sunshine and only low-end rain chances.

Saturday and beyond

Our overall pattern may begin to change on Saturday as high pressure begins to back off a little bit. Our temperatures should come down a few degrees, and rain chances increase. The changes will be modest, but by later this weekend our high temperatures should drop into the lower 90s, with daily rain chances increasing to perhaps 40 or 50 percent. This may persist into next week, depending on what happens with Hurricane Beryl and its moisture.

Hurricane Beryl

As it moved into the Caribbean Sea on Monday, Beryl had an astonishing burst of intensity for early July, reaching Category 5 status. There is fairly high confidence in the forecast between now and Friday, when the storm will likely move into the Yucatan Peninsula. A weakened Beryl will then move into the southern Gulf of Mexico.

After that time the system will most likely remain bottled up in the southern Gulf of Mexico. However, given the trend toward weakening high pressure over Texas, some of the the moisture from Beryl could work its way north. This will influence the extent to which Houston sees increased rainfall chances late in the weekend and next week. Is there a scenario in which Beryl becomes a bit more organized and its center tracks toward Texas? Yes. But for now this seems less likely an outcome than just increased rainfall chances for the greater Houston area. We’ll keep a close eye on it all.

For more on Beryl, be sure and check out our detailed forecasts on The Eyewall.

A message from Reliant

Thanks to Eric and Matt for the hot and sunny July 4th forecast!

Throughout the peak summer travel season, many people often wonder what is best practice for cooling
an empty house – and if it’s even worth it. And for those staying home, staying comfortable while
hanging out around the house doesn’t have to run up the electric bill. Check out these energy efficiency
tips from Reliant to stay cool and save money, regardless of your plans for the holiday weekend!

Traveling for the 4th:

• Follow the 4×4 principle. Setting your thermostat four degrees higher than your typical temperature when you’re away from home for more than four hours can help reduce electricity usage. Keep in mind, every degree of cooling below 78 degrees increases your energy use by 6-8%. If you’re gone for days on end, it is not recommended to turn off your AC entirely as that can increase humidity in the home, stress your appliances and cause your system to work overtime to cool your home when you return.
• Close blinds, curtains or shades before you leave to reduce solar heat gain by up to 30 percent.
• Replace the AC filter before taking off – a clean air filter can keep your A/C running at peak condition.

Enjoying the holiday from home (in addition to the above):

• Rotate your ceiling fan counterclockwise for a wind chill effect. This can make the temperature in a room feel up to four degrees cooler, allowing you to be more comfortable and adjust your thermostat to save money. Don’t forget to turn off your fan when leaving the room.
• Avoid using heat-producing appliances like the clothes dryer, dishwasher or oven during the hottest times of day. These appliances can cause your A/C to work harder to keep your home cool.
• Install a pool pump timer to run early morning or overnight and clean pool filters regularly.
• Switch out old light bulbs for new LEDs, which use 50 percent less electricity, reduce heat emitted and last at least 10 times longer than traditional incandescent bulbs.

In brief: As a boundary pushes in from East Texas, the potential for storms is a little bit higher today than expected. However, while the line of storms currently on the radar is impressive, it’s not clear whether this system will hold together all the way into Houston.

In this morning’s post I mentioned there was “a bit of intrigue” regarding storm chances on Monday afternoon as a boundary pressed into the area from the east. As of 4 pm CT this boundary is clearly visible on radar, having moved from Louisiana into East Texas, and now slowly creeping toward the Houston metro area.

To be frank, our high-resolution modeling guidance has completely missed the boat on this storm development today, and I don’t have a great answer as to what happens later this afternoon and evening. My best guess is that this boundary will continue to slide west, but as the storms approach and move into the Houston area they will weaken. But given the ample daytime heating over the next couple of hours, it is also possible the storms hold together and some sort of line pushes through between now and 9 pm CT.

With this post I simply wanted to call attention to the possibility that showers and thunderstorms may be a little bit more widespread this evening than previously expected. (We have no flooding concerns, regardless). Or, maybe the storms will fizzle out as they move into a slightly less favorable environment. In any case, expect the unexpected this evening.

In brief: As July begins we take a look back at June’s rain and temperatures, and look ahead to a hot week to start the month. Rain chances will be on the low side this week, but some isolated showers and thunderstorms will nonetheless be possible. Hurricane Beryl should remain in the southern Gulf of Mexico this weekend, so it’s unlikely to affect our area.

A brief June review

The month of June was wetter and warmer than normal. The city of Houston, officially, recorded 7.8 inches of rainfall, which is nearly 2 inches more than the average monthly rainfall for June. As a result of a wet spring, the entire eastern half of Texas, including all of the Houston metro area, is entirely out of drought conditions. It is a fine posture to be in headed into the hottest months of the year.

In terms of temperature, the city of Houston recorded an average of 84.6 degrees, which is 1.6 degrees above the normal temperature recorded over the last three decades. The average high, of 93.1 degrees, was not far off normal. However, our nighttime temperature averaged 76.1 degrees, which is well above the normal June temperature of 73.7 degrees. This is consistent with a warmer Gulf of Mexico and the background pattern of climate change.

Monday

If you’ve been enjoying our hot and sunny weather, you’re in luck. This pattern should persist for much of this week. In truth, there’s not a whole lot to forecast when high pressure is more or less in control of our weather pattern. High temperatures today will reach the upper 90s, with plenty of sunshine and humidity. Winds will be light, generally from the south, at 5 mph or so.

There is a bit of intrigue when it comes to the possibility of some rain showers late this afternoon as a weak boundary pushes into the area. This may generate some isolated showers and thunderstorms across parts of Houston, perhaps near downtown. Overall rain chances today are probably on the order of 10 to 20 percent for most locations. Lows tonight will be warm, perhaps dropping only to about 80 degrees.

Tuesday

A day similar to Monday, with the possible exception of highs being a degree or two cooler. The setup for isolated showers is similar.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

The overall pattern remains the same, although with high pressure slightly relinquishing its grip we could see highs only in the mid-90s rather than the upper-90s. Ongoing rain chances are similar in terms of the afternoons and early evenings possibly seeing a few isolated showers and thunderstorms. If you’re wondering about July Fourth fireworks, everything looks fine at this point.

Saturday and Sunday

At this point it appears that high pressure may back off still a bit further this weekend. If so, that may increase daily rain chances a bit, to perhaps 30 percent. It may also bring daytime highs down into the low- to mid-90s range, so more in line with temperatures more typical for early July. We’ll see.

Tropics

We’re continuing to closely watch the evolution of Hurricane Beryl, but at this time there are no indications that it will move into the central Gulf of Mexico and threaten the upper Texas coast. The most likely scenario at this time is, rather, that it tracks across the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche. After that time the odds that it moves north toward Texas are increasingly low. So, for the greater Houston area, nothing much to worry about at this time.

Also of note, Tropical Storm Chris formed last night in the Southern Gulf of Mexico, but it is already moving into Mexico near Tampico, and is not a concern for the United States. (Heavy rainfall, however, is likely in central Mexico). For full coverage of tropical activity, be sure and check out The Eyewall.