Although we’re in the month of December, you wouldn’t know it from the weather. It’s not that we are going to exactly be hot—rather conditions will remain quite mild—but it’s definitely not going to approach cold weather, even “Houston” cold. The bottom line is that if you’re like Goldilocks, and like things not too hot or not too cold, you’re in luck for at least the next week or 10 days.

Thursday

Dense fog is back across parts of Houston this morning, and a National Weather Service advisory remains in effect until 9 am. After the fog dissipates we should be left partly sunny skies and high temperatures near 80 degrees. The calm winds this morning, which are aiding in the development of fog, should become southerly at 5 to 10 mph this afternoon. Overnight low temperatures will be about five degrees warmer tonight, only dropping into the lower 60s in Houston, with inland areas possibly seeing the upper 50s.

Friday

We’ll likely see the development of more fog on Friday morning. This should be a partly to mostly cloudy day afterward as an atmospheric disturbance passes overhead, but overall rain chances will remain fairly low, probably about 10 percent or so as other factors will mitigate against the development of showers. Highs will likely top out in the upper 70s with another night in the low 60s.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend continues our trend of mild weather, with highs of around 80 degrees and lows in the lower 60s. Skies on Saturday should be mostly sunny, and although we’ll probably see more clouds on Sunday I think rain chances will remain near zero during the day time. There’s modest chance of light rain Sunday night as a front nears the region.

Next week

The aforementioned front should push into Houston on Monday, probably during the overnight hours but that’s not locked in. This will set the stage for slightly cooler weather for a day or two, with highs on Monday topping out at around 70 degrees, and overnight lows in the 50s. We warm back up before another front (probably) comes through on Wednesday. This one may bring a little rain with it, but beyond that the details are fuzzy. This one probably won’t have too much oomph either, so lows in the 50s seems like a good bet right now.

Good morning and welcome to the first day of winter. Or is it? Meteorologists define the start of winter as Dec. 1, running through the end of February. Then spring starts on March 1, and so on. But there are no hard-and-fast definitions of winter in the Northern Hemisphere. Some people use the winter solstice, which marks the point at which the Sun is the lowest in the sky. That’s reasonable. Still others have more esoteric definitions, as I discovered by reading this fun, unscientific poll recently published by FiveThirtyEight.

I thought we would do something similar here, so I’ve set up a poll for readers to gauge when you think winter begins. If you have some other method of determining the first day of winter, please write it in the comments below. I’ll write a summary post of the results next Monday. I’m genuinely curious what you all think.

One thing is for sure, it won’t feel like winter any time soon here. As we enter December, the overall pattern looks quite mild for the next 10 to 15 days. After this morning, many locations in Houston may not see overnight lows below 50 degrees during the first half of December, and high temperatures will generally be in the 70s. A quick look at the 8-14 day outlook for temperatures from NOAA supports the idea of warmer than normal weather ahead for “winter.” (If you consider early December winter, that is).

Wednesday

As expected, we’re seeing fairly widespread fog this morning, with low temperatures around 50 degrees matching dewpoints. Like we saw on Tuesday, this fog will burn off as the Sun rises and warms the air temperature later this morning. After the fog dissipates we should see mostly sunny skies, with highs generally in the mid- to upper-70s and light southerly winds. Overnight lows will drop into the 50s for Houston.

Thursday and Friday

These will be mild, partly sunny days, with highs in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees, and overnight lows around 60 degrees. Some fog will be possible on both mornings, but otherwise there are no weather concerns.

Saturday and Sunday

The forecast is starting to become a little more clear for the weekend, and generally I think we can expect a mix of sunshine and clouds, with only a slight chance of rain both days. (I’d guess nearly all of the region stays dry, and areas that do see rain will only receive a light mist). Highs will remain in the range of the upper 70s to 80 degrees, with nights around 60 degrees. If you have outdoor plans this weekend, you’re probably safe.

Next week

A weak cool front should arrive on Monday to bring some drier air into the region, and cooler weather. Highs on Monday may peak at about 70 degrees. After a quick warm up, another front appears to be on track for Wednesday. This one may bring a little bit of rain with it, and push nighttime temperatures down into the 50s for a few nights.

Good morning. Temperatures have generally fallen into the 40s across the region this morning, and this has brought them down near dewpoints. When the air temperature matches the dewpoint temperature water droplets form, and because winds are light they allow fog to form and thicken. Parts of the Houston area, accordingly, are seeing dense fog this morning. For other areas, where the air temperature is a few degrees above the dewpoint, it’s simply clear and cool outside. This radiation fog will “burn” off as the sun rises and increases air temperatures this morning. Conditions for early morning fog will persist for much of this week.

Tuesday

Monday was a splendid day, and Tuesday will be rather nice as well with mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid-70s. Winds will generally be light, shifting to come from the southeast, and this will allow for temperatures to be 5 to 10 degrees warmer tonight than Monday night. But there will definitely still be a fall-like chill in the air, as lows drop into the 50s.

Wednesday and Thursday

The middle of the week will bring more sunshine and fine weather, with mostly sunny skies and highs generally in the mid- to possibly upper-70s. Winds will remain light, generally out of the south. Overnight lows will drop to around 60 degrees in Houston, with cooler conditions inland and away from the city, and slightly warmer ones closer to the coast.

Friday

As the high pressure that will dominate our weather this week drifts eastward, our region will become a little more susceptible to atmospheric disturbances. As a result, Friday will be partly sunny, with a slight chance of showers. (In the unlikely event that it does rain, accumulations would be very slight). Highs probably will reach the upper 70s. Lows on Friday night may only drop into the 60s in Houston.

Saturday and Sunday

Confidence in the weekend forecast remains somewhat low, although most likely we will see a mix of clouds and sunshine, with highs in the mid-70s on Saturday. Some light rain showers are possible on Saturday afternoon and evening, but again any accumulations look fairly light, measured in the hundredths of inches most likely.

It still appears as though a weak front will come into the region late on Saturday night or some time on Sunday, although the details surrounding this remain fuzzy. For now let’s go with partly sunny skies on Sunday with a high in the low 70s. We can’t yet rule out rain chances for Sunday, but my sense is that they’ll wrap up during the morning hours. Stay tuned!

Later next week

Sunday’s front looks to be fairly modest, so I think the first part of next week will be mild, with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s. Another, probably stronger front, looks to come through around next Wednesday or Thursday, but you should only write that forecast down in pencil, on cheap paper, that you’re willing to toss into the waste bin.

Today marks the last day of our 2021 fundraiser, during which we are raising money to support the site next year, further app development, and more. You may either buy merchandise, donate, or both. The response this year has exceeded our expectations, and your support is humbling to both Matt and myself. We would like to offer sincere thank you to everyone, and we do mean everyone, who pitched in for this year’s fundraiser. We’re in great shape heading into 2022 and promise to be here every step of the way.

Weather-wise, the forecast calls for a slow warming trend this week after a chilly start. One noticeable change will be a transition to more sunny skies. Matt promised you lots of clouds this weekend, and very little sunshine was to be found. But now, the sunshine is back, and we’ll see a week of partly to mostly sunny days. Rain chances won’t return until toward the end of the week.

Monday

As temperatures drop into the 40s this morning near dewpoints, some patchy fog has developed in some areas. This will burn off quickly as the sun rises, and temperatures go up. Highs today will reach 70 degrees, with light northerly winds, beneath sunny skies. Lows tonight should once again drop into the 40s for all but coastal areas, with some patchy fog possible again.

Tuesday

This should be another fine fall day, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the low 70s. Winds will shift to come from the southeast on Tuesday, and this will kick off a slow warming trend that probably will last into the weekend. Overnight lows for most areas on Tuesday night should still drop into the 50s.

Wednesday and Thursday

These should be a pair of warmer days, with high temperatures in the mid- to upper-70s across the area and partly to mostly sunny skies. Dewpoints should remain about 60 degrees, so the air will neither feel dry nor overly humid. Overnight temperatures will continue to creep up, with lows on Friday morning probably not dropping below 60 degrees in Houston.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

If you have plans for this weekend, I’m afraid you may have to wait a day or two before confidence increases in the forecast. I’m pretty sure that Friday will see a continued warming trend, with partly sunny skies and highs around 80 degrees. By Friday night, or so, with several days of an onshore flow, moisture levels will be high enough to support some kind of rain. But overall chances are probably fairly low.

As for the weekend, some kind of mild front—originating from the Pacific Ocean, rather than Canada or to the north—will probably move through. My best guess in terms of timing is Saturday night, but that’s just a hunch. So at this point I’d say to expect some slight rain chances on Saturday and perhaps Sunday morning, with the airmass turning somewhat drier by the second half of the weekend. Highs, for the most part, should be in the 70s, with lows in the 50s. We’ll try to get some more clarity for you, soon.

Thanksgiving review

This is pretty shameless, I admit. And a good general rule of thumb for forecasters is to never get too confident about this job, because the unpredictability of weather can be pretty darn humbling. But in our very first outlook for Thanksgiving, 10 days before the holiday, here’s what we wrote:

So my best guess is that Thanksgiving starts out fairly warm, but may cool down later with a wet frontal passage.

What goes around comes around, of course, so all this really means is that Space City Weather’s 10-day outlook for Christmas probably will be about as worthless as a lump of coal in your stocking.