Good morning. The overall forecast remains on track for Houston, with a strong Arctic front moving into the region tonight and setting up several days of colder weather. I still don’t things will get too extreme for Houston—much of the city probably will not see a hard freeze—but this winter storm will nonetheless have widespread effects across the state. Matt covered a lot of these issues in a post on Tuesday night.

Also, I’m not sure exactly what it means when the groundhog sees not his shadow, but rather the shadow of death, but I guess we’re about to find out. This is because Milltown Mel, a weather-predicting groundhog in New Jersey, died on the day before Groundhog Day. So, yeah.

Wednesday

Fog is draped over much of the region this morning as air temperatures, generally in the mid-50s, have fallen to the dewpoint temperature. This fog will burn off as air temperatures rise today, and we’re probably going all the way into the low 70s even though skies will be mostly cloudy. Winds will be light, from the east, at 5 to 10 mph. Some scattered, light showers will be possible this morning, and into the afternoon hours, but I think the better rain chances will come over night along with the front. Said front will arrive in northwest parts of the region by around 8 to 10 pm on Wednesday night, should reach downtown around midnight, and push down to the coast around 2 to 4 am.

Thursday

It will be a different world when you wake up Thursday morning, with air temperatures around 40 degrees, gusty northerly winds, and possibly some ongoing precipitation. The bottom line: It will be cold, windy, and possibly wet. High temperatures should hold at about 40 degrees during the daytime, and the possibility for some very light precipitation will linger throughout the daytime. What does this mean for our region? Well, it’s possible that areas northwest will see a mix of sleet and ice pellets during the daytime. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for Burleson, Brazos, Houston, Madison, Washington, and Grimes counties through 6 pm. Closer to Houston, we may see some sleet or freezing in the air, but surface temperatures should be warm enough to preclude any impacts on the ground. At this time we don’t anticipate significant impacts in the city and surrounding counties.

Another big question remains how cold it will get on Thursday night. It’s looking like clouds and winds of 15 to 20 mph should help keep the extreme cold at bay, with temperatures in the mid- to upper-20s in places like Montgomery County and west Harris County, and temperatures in the upper 20s to freezing in Houston and down to the coast. These temperatures should be warm enough to preclude bursting unexposed pipes.

Friday

This will be a cold, mostly cloudy day. Highs should peak in the upper 30s to 40 degrees, but a northerly wind will make it feel colder. But at least it will be above freezing. With more clouds on Friday night, lows should drop to about their same level as Thursday night, plus or minus a degree or two.

Saturday

Sunshine, finally. Clearing skies should help temperatures rise into the upper 40s to 50 degrees, and we’ll probably all welcome the lack of a stiff northerly wind. Lows Saturday night, under clear skies, should drop to around freezing in central Houston, with slightly cooler conditions for inland areas.

Sunday

The second half of the weekend looks quite nice, with highs in the mid-50s and ample sunshine. Most of the area should avoid a freeze on Sunday night.

Next week

Temperatures will be slow to warm as we head into next week, but highs should reach the low 60s by Wednesday or so, with lows in the 40s. Days should be partly to mostly sunny, with a mostly northerly flow. If you enjoy winter in Texas, be sure and get your fill.

Eric has been keeping you apprised on local impacts due to the upcoming cold snap and winter storm, which at this time appear to be relatively minor. We often get asked about weather across other portions of Texas, as people plan travel or have friends and relatives elsewhere. In this post, we’ll talk a bit more about what is expected weather-wise across the Lone Star State from this significant winter storm. It’s important to again underscore that this is not a February 2021 repeat, even elsewhere in Texas. All events have unique impacts. It’s not a reason to take events like this lightly, as this one will cause some significant problems I am sure, particularly related to travel. But it’s important for us to provide some context for you, and that context is that this is a not a February 2021-type event virtually anywhere in Texas.

North Texas & DFW Metro

This winter storm will produce multiple hazards across Texas, and each area will have its own problems. In the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex, the concern is very much ice over anything else. Conditions will deteriorate later tomorrow afternoon and evening from northwest to southeast across the area, with rain transitioning to freezing rain (ice) and eventually sleet or snow. It may be a bit of a wild night Wednesday into Thursday morning with different areas seeing switches from ice to sleet to snow and back, eventually trending to all snow and sleet before ending on Thursday morning or afternoon.

When all is said and done, most of the DFW area should see a tenth of an inch or two of ice, enough to cause significant travel problems and potentially some localized power outages or downed tree branches. North and east of Dallas is the highest concern. Modeling has been pretty consistent in pegging that area for higher ice accumulation (a quarter-inch or more), and that could lead to more significant travel problems and power outages. Travel to North Texas is not advised Wednesday night, Thursday, and potentially Friday, when things can hopefully begin to thaw out.

Less ice is expected east and southeast of Dallas, but there could also be some travel issues in far northern parts of the Piney Woods, particularly around Tyler and Longview. Patchy light ice is possible farther south toward Palestine, Nacogdoches, and Lufkin. Southeastern Oklahoma and portions of Arkansas will likely be hardest hit in terms of ice.

Snow and sleet are a little less of a concern than ice in Dallas, but it could still be significant, with perhaps 1 to 3 inches of accumulation on top of any ice, especially as you head out west of Fort Worth toward Weatherford and Mineral Wells. But the combination of everything will likely make for very, very difficult travel in North Texas late this week.

Overnight lows heading into Friday morning should bottom out in the teens in Dallas, the coldest night of this event (compared to -2 in February 2021).

Single digits are possible well west of the Metroplex, heading toward Abilene or Wichita Falls, areas that will likely see less ice and about 2 to 3 inches of snow, which allows for more effective radiational cooling at night.

West Texas (El Paso, Midland, Lubbock, Amarillo)

For West Texas, the story will likely be snow and cold, with a little ice in spots as well. Snow will develop in the Panhandle late tonight, while a mix of precipitation should develop in the Permian Basin on Wednesday morning. The transition from a mix to all snow should gradually drop south and east tomorrow night, reaching I-10 west of Hill Country around midnight before snow gradually winds down. Blizzard conditions are possible in some of the mountains in far West Texas, so a hike in Guadalupe Mountains National Park would be ill-advised.

When all is said and done, most southern areas will see a modest 1 to 3 inches, with locally higher amounts in the mountains but plenty of blowing snow as well. Additionally, up to a tenth of an inch of ice will be possible in some spots.

In the Panhandle, generally 1 to 3 inches and blowing snow is expected, with a few higher amounts, especially north of Amarillo. You can see some discontinuities in the map below, which are related to the general uncertainty that’s always present in Southern Plains winter storms. Each National Weather Service office relies on their experience and model trends to produce these forecasts, so there are bound to be some differences from place to place. I show these to give you a general idea of expectations and some granularity.

Temperatures will be quite cold in West Texas, with lows in the single digits to below zero expected on Friday morning in the Panhandle and single digits to teens in southwest Texas.

In some cases, while these temperatures are quite cold, they will fall 10 degrees or more short of last February’s coldest readings. Again, while this is a big storm, it’s not historic in the way last February was.

Central Texas (Austin, San Antonio, Waco)

As is often the case, the farther south and east you go, the harder the forecast gets in Texas winter storms. Central Texas is no exception this time around, with models painting a challenging forecast, particularly over Waco and Austin. A mix of rain, ice, and possibly sleet will arrive late Wednesday night and Thursday, slowly transitioning over to sleet or mixed sleet and snow late Thursday. While the duration of precipitation should be relatively brief here compared to other parts of Texas, there is still some chance that ice overperforms some, particularly from Austin through Waco.

In general, most of Hill Country and the I-35 corridor north of New Braunfels should see 0.05 to 0.10 inches of ice, enough to create some hazardous travel on Thursday into at least Friday morning. It’s not out of the question that a few isolated spots, particularly north of Killeen through Waco could see upwards of two-tenths of an inch of ice, which would cause more substantial issues. Whatever happens, ice is expected to be an issue north of San Antonio on Thursday and travel is not advised Thursday into at least Friday morning.

Morning lows on Friday will be quite chilly.

Expect lows to again come up well short of February 2021’s levels in Central Texas, with San Antonio, Austin, and Waco all within a few degrees of 20 on Friday morning.

South Texas

No serious winter impacts outside of cold and wind are expected in South Texas, thankfully. However, Friday morning will certainly be cold in the Valley and toward Victoria and Corpus Christi.

At this time, icing is not expected south and east of San Antonio, but a few reports of light icing or sleet can’t be entirely ruled out, especially in the Victoria Crossroads.

Eric will have the latest on our Houston area expectations in the morning!

Good morning. As anticipated, central parts of the Houston metro area were largely spared from heavy rainfall on Monday, with 1 to 2 inches falling for most locations. But nearby locations received more, especially to the southwest. Palacios, near Matagorda Bay, recorded 7.31 inches on Monday. College Station also set a daily rainfall record with 3.4 inches. With these rains behind us, our focus now turns to cold weather later this week.

Tuesday

Beyond some patchy fog this morning, Houston has few weather concerns today. Skies will be mostly cloudy, with light northeasterly winds turning southeasterly this afternoon. Highs will generally reach the upper 60s. Lows tonight will drop into the mid-50s for most locations, and some more fog will be possible as dewpoints match air temperatures.

Wednesday

This will be another partly to mostly cloudy day, with highs perhaps reaching 70 degrees or a tick higher. Some light, scattered showers will be possible on Wednesday afternoon, perhaps becoming a bit more widespread by around sunset. Rain chances will persist overnight as a front sweeps through, likely reaching the Houston metro area around midnight, and the coast sometime around 3 am, give or take. I think most areas probably will pick up between 0.5 and 1 inch of rain from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. Temperatures will plummet from the upper 50s before the front’s arrival down to around 40 by the time you wake up on Thursday morning.

Thursday

Rains may linger into Thursday morning, but for the most part this simply will be a cold, cloudy, and blustery day. For Houston, it’s almost certainly not going to be cold enough for any wintry precipitation. But ice could be a pretty serious problem for areas of Texas north of a line from College Station to Huntsville. Please bear that in mind if you need to travel north on Thursday or Friday. For Houston, look for daytime temperatures in the low 40s on Thursday, made to feel colder by gusty northerly winds.

Temperatures will bottom out on Thursday night, although cloud cover and mixing winds could moderate things slightly. I want to emphasize that there is a fair amount of uncertainty in temperatures for Thursday night. Under a worst-case scenario, I think areas north and west of central Houston (i.e. Katy and The Woodlands) could see lows in the low 20s, with the urban core and areas closer to the coast in the mid- to upper-20s. However, I think it equally likely that inland areas only drop into the mid- to upper 20s, with central and southern Houston remaining at around 30 degrees, perhaps only seeing a light freeze. We will try to get more certainty on this in the coming days.

These temperatures will be cold enough to threaten plants, pets, and people, but I think unexposed pipes should be OK for the most part. For Houston, temperatures during this freeze should be a good 10 to 15 degrees warmer than last February’s hard freeze, so we are not looking at that kind of event.

Nevertheless, much of Texas will be very cold at the end of this week. So what of the power grid? The Electric Reliability Council Of Texas recently filed a winter weatherization readiness report, and concluded, “The Texas electric grid is more prepared for winter operations than ever before.” Let us hope so.

Friday and beyond

The good news is that we’ll see some sunshine on Friday, but it will still be quite cold. Look for highs in the low 40s, and another freezing night. Expect lows to perhaps be a couple of degrees warmer than Thursday night.

Saturday, Sunday, and Monday look mostly sunny and chilly, with highs in the upper 40s on Saturday to upper 50s by Monday. Look for a gradual warming trend into the low 60s by Wednesday or Thursday, with nights remaining in the 30s and 40s as Houston experiences a prolonged cold spell.

Good morning! There is a lot of weather to talk about for this week, but first I want to say a word regarding our app, which is available for Apple and Android devices. Several readers have written to note a bug in the 7-day forecasts on the home screen, and we’re aware of it. Fixing this will be part of our next update, which will also include some of your most requested features. We’ll have more to say on this soon, but I did want to take a moment to apologize for the bug.

With that said, let’s talk about today’s rains and an Arctic front coming into Houston later this week.

Monday

The high pressure system that brought our beautiful weather this weekend has now exited eastward, and in its place a low pressure system will move into the region today. Light showers will develop to the southwest of Houston this morning, and move into the city later this morning. The potential for heavy rainfall is greatest this afternoon and evening, before activity winds down around midnight. Generally I think the region will see 2 to 4 inches for areas west of Interstate 45, and 1 to 3 inches east.

The greatest threat for heavy rainfall is likely near Matagorda Bay, and areas southwest of Houston, where higher isolated totals of 6 inches or more are possible. Due to the threat of some street flooding, we have instituted a Stage 1 flood alert for today and this evening. Note that these impacts are most likely during the evening commute. Highs, otherwise, will reach the mid- to upper-60s today, with lows in the upper 50s Monday night.

Tuesday

Congratulations. This is the one day with zero weather concerns this week. Expect highs in the low 70s with mostly cloudy skies. We may briefly see a little sunshine during the afternoon hours. Winds will be light. Overnight lows will again drop into the upper 50s.

Wednesday

This will be another warm-ish day, with highs likely reaching the mid-70s beneath cloudy skies. Some light showers will be possible during the afternoon hours, ahead of a front that will sweep through on Wednesday night, reaching Houston between midnight and sunrise on Thursday, and pushing off the coast by sunrise. Temperatures will drop sharply with this front, but most likely any rainfall accompanying it will end before temperatures get cold enough for wintry precipitation.

Thursday

Welcome to winter. Skies will be mostly cloudy on Thursday, with rains likely ending by or before noon. Your afternoon temperatures should top out at about 40 degrees, made to feel colder still by a stiff northerly breeze. The question becomes how cold it will get on Thursday night, and that is going to depend on whether skies clear somewhat (which would make things colder), and how quickly winds die down (more winds means more mixing, which would trend warmer). For now I think we’ll see mid-20s for inland areas such as Katy and The Woodlands, upper-20s for central Houston, and a light freeze right along the coast. This should be just warm enough to preclude concerns about widespread pipe damage, but the forecast at this point could still go a bit warmer or a bit colder.

Friday

Friday will be cold, with partly sunny skies, and highs in the low 40s. Expect another cold night with temperatures perhaps a degree or two warmer than Thursday night.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend looks partly sunny and chilly. Expect highs of around 50 degrees on Saturday, with a light freeze possible Saturday night, and in the mid-50s on Sunday. We can’t rule out some light rain each day, but for now I’d bet on dry conditions. A slow warming trend should continue into next week.