Houston will see one more warm day before more fall-like conditions return with a cold front arriving early on Thursday. This will bring a significantly drier shot of air into the region on Thursday night and Friday morning, with dewpoints dropping into the 20s and 30s. Mostly sunny and somewhat warmer conditions return for the weekend, with uncertainty ahead for the Thanksgiving holiday.

Wednesday

Before we get to the drier air, however, we’ll see fairly muggy conditions today—by November standards at least. Temperatures this morning are only slightly below 70 degrees, and with mostly sunny skies temperatures this afternoon will probably get into the low- or possibly mid-80s for some areas. I’m tempted to say this is the warmest day left in the year, but Sunday may also see highs of about 80 degrees so I’m not going to make any firm predictions. Winds will be fairly light today, generally out of the south. Lows will be sticky again tonight ahead of the front.

Thursday

As for the front, roughly speaking it should reach the College Station area around midnight or shortly thereafter, push into central Houston between 5 and 7 am CT, and reach the coast between 7 and 9 am. Some scattered showers will be possible with the front, but nothing too heavy or lasting too long. Any rains will probably end quickly as drier air moves in. Highs on Thursday should max out in the low 70s, with clearing skies during the afternoon. Winds will be out of the north and northeast at 10 to 15 mph.

Thursday night will be the coldest of the week, so if you’re participating in the Sleep Out event for Covenant House, be sure and have an extra blanket. Lows will likely drop to 50 degrees, or slightly lower, in Houston with winds out of the north at 10 to 15 mph. Skies will be partly cloudy. Further inland, lows may drop into the low 40s.

Friday

A fine late fall day, with highs in the mid-60s and mostly sunny skies. Winds will be generally light. Lows Friday night will probably be a degree or two cooler than Thursday night.

Saturday and Sunday

After a cool start, temperatures on Saturday should climb into the mid-70s with mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows will drop to about 60 degrees, and then Sunday should be warmer with highs of around 80 degrees and a mix of sunshine and clouds. Another front should arrive on Sunday night, probably around midnight but there’s still plenty of uncertainty. Overall rain chances with this front are fairly low, but not zero.

Next week

Monday and Tuesday should be clear and cooler before a warming trend begins again Wednesday. Then, all eyes are on the next front and its implications for Thanksgiving. We’ve had several questions about outdoor events, such as the Houston Turkey Trot on Thanksgiving morning. Due to the pandemic, many of these activities were put on hiatus last year, but are now returning. So will Mother Nature cooperate?

The big picture is fairly clear: A front will be moving toward our region on Wednesday night or Thursday morning, but we still have questions about how quick (or slow) and dry (or wet) its passage will be. At this point I’m thinking we’ll see a slower moving front, making for a gray Thanksgiving Day with a healthy chance of rain. We’re not looking at inches and inches of rain, I don’t think, but there may be enough precipitation to put a damper on outdoor events at some point during the day. After the front moves through things probably will cool down significantly, with lows at least in the 40s. But the colder air may not come until Thanksgiving night or Friday.

Our confidence in such a forecast will, of course, increase in the coming days as we feast upon additional data.

Fundraiser

I want to extend a very, very warm thank you to all who have contributed to our annual fundraiser so far. As always, your response has been tremendous. There’s still time to get your t-shirts, umbrellas, caps, tumblers, or to simply donate.

Good morning. As it often does during the fall, Houston is riding the roller coaster, with temperatures plunging after a front moves through, bottoming out over a period of one or two nights, and then beginning to rise again. We’re now in the middle of the pattern during which we’re rising again. Temperatures will peak on Wednesday, in the low- to mid-80s, before we drop again Thursday. Make sure your seat belts are fastened!

Tuesday

There is some patchy fog across Houston this morning, but it will burn off quickly. Skies will otherwise be mostly sunny, with southerly winds of 5 to 10 mph. Highs will climb to about 80 degrees in Houston, with slightly warmer conditions west and southwest of the city, and slightly cooler right along the coast. Lows tonight will not drop too far, likely only into the upper 60s.

Wednesday

This will be another day an awful lot like Tuesday, albeit with temperatures possibly a degree or two warmer still. Fortunately, for those who would like to see some November-like weather in November, a front remains on track for Wednesday night. In terms of timing, it’s likely to reach the College Station area around midnight, push into the city a couple of hours later, and reach the coast around sunrise or shortly before hand. A broken line of light to moderate showers may accompany the front, but right now accumulations are likely to be less than a quarter of an inch for nearly all of us.

Thursday

In the front’s wake, skies should be mostly cloudy Thursday morning, although we should see some clearing during the afternoon hours. Highs will reach about 70 degrees, and northerly winds will be bringing drier air in throughout the day. Lows Thursday night should bottom out in the upper 40s in Houston, with cooler conditions inland, and warmer near the coast.

Friday

This will be a cool, but beautiful day with sunny skies and highs in the mid- to upper-60s. Lows Friday night will probably be a couple of degrees warmer than Thursday.

Saturday and Sunday

The first half of the weekend should see continued mostly sunny skies, although highs will probably push back up into the mid-70s. This will be a fine day for outdoor activities. Sunday should be a few degrees warmer, and will likely see more clouds. It looks as though another front will arrive later on Sunday or Monday, and this will introduce a chance of showers later on Sunday, although the timing is to be determined.

Next week

The front should usher somewhat cooler and sunnier weather into the forecast for the early part of next week before a warming trend begins—the roller coaster, remember? I mentioned yesterday that models were hinting at the arrival of yet another front around Thanksgiving Day, and it still looks like this could be the case. All of the caveats for a long-range forecast apply here, but it still seems possible to me that we could see a wet front passage sometime on Thanksgiving Day or night.

Fundraiser

We’re smack dab in the middle of our annual fundraiser, during which we’re raising money to support the site, our weather app, and more. You can buy merchandise or donate here. Thanks for your generous support so far!

Good morning. This is the second week of our annual fundraiser, and you can purchase merchandise or make a donation here. Readers will often email us in the middle of summer asking if they can buy a t-shirt, but we only do this in November, when the weather is typically benign. So don’t miss out!

After a fall-like weekend our temperatures will be on the upswing to start this week before a front arrives sometime around Wednesday night. There don’t appear to be any fireworks with this front, but it should set the stage for a pleasant second half of the week. At the end of this post I’m also taking a stab at the Thanksgiving forecast—unfortunately right now it’s not one to relish. The only sure thing about the forecast for the next 10 days it that it will be stuffed with puns.

Monday

Low temperatures this morning have fallen to about 60 degrees, and with mostly sunny skies we’ll likely see highs reach about 80 degrees this afternoon, give or take. Winds will be light, out of the south, and as a result dewpoints will continue to inch upward. Overnight lows should again drop down to around 60 degrees in Houston, with warmer conditions along the coast, and moderately cooler ones inland.

Tuesday and Wednesday

These should be more fairly warm days, for November, with highs in the vicinity of 80 degrees, moderately humid air, and mostly sunny skies. Some time after midnight on Wednesday, and sunrise on Thursday, the region’s next front should arrive. This may bring some very scattered showers and thunderstorms as it passes through, but right now the overall setup does not appear to favor much rainfall. This will usher a drier and cooler air mass into the region.

Thursday

Skies will be mostly cloudy to start the day, with some sunshine probably mixing in during the afternoon hours. For inland locations, highs may not reach 70 degrees, with the immediate coast likely seeing highs in the low 70s. Winds will be moderate, out of the north at 10 to 15 mph. Thursday night should see temperatures drop to 50 degrees or just below in the city, with 40s for other inland areas, 50s closer to the water.

Friday

This will be a clear and sunny day with highs likely in the mid-60s. Expect another night with similar temperatures to Thursday night, as lows drop to around 50 degrees in Houston.

Saturday and Sunday

We should see another pleasant fall weekend—at least to start. With sunny skies, highs on Saturday should max out in the low 70s. Overnight lows will be a bit warmer than the previous two nights, likely dropping to around 60 degrees. Sunday should be warmer, perhaps in the mid- to upper-70s, with increasing clouds. Another front is slated to move through later on Sunday or Monday, and this could generate some rain showers on Sunday and Monday. The details are to be determined, both about the amount of rain, and strength of the front.

Thanksgiving week

We’ve been in a general pattern for awhile now of getting a front, seeing things cool down for a couple of days, subsequently warm up again, and then seeing another front. I think this pattern will continue, and this would put us in line for a warming trend in the middle of next week, around Wednesday, Nov. 24. The question then becomes how quickly the next cold front comes through, and right now the medium-range models are suggesting a possible frontal passage on Thanksgiving, plus or minus day. Some of the models also suggest there will be enough moisture for some decent rainfall. So my best guess is that Thanksgiving starts out fairly warm, but may cool down later with a wet frontal passage.

It’s still a long way to go, however. We still have 10 days to go before Thanksgiving. So hopefully this is a turkey of a forecast.

For those able to enjoy weekends, congratulations. For the third weekend in a row, we are expecting just stunningly beautiful, chamber of commerce type weather.

Fundraiser

I just want to echo Eric’s sentiment this week, and I want to thank everyone who has been so generous during our annual fundraiser. We sincerely appreciate you, and we are truly humbled by your support. The fundraiser continues for another 18 days, and we’ve got some cool options available here. You can read more from Eric’s post on Tuesday here. Thank you, truly.

Today through Sunday

Temperatures this morning are noticeably cooler than they were 24 hours ago.

It’s a refreshing start to the day, with 40s and 50s in most spots and 60s along the coast. We’ll see ample sunshine with highs well into the 70s today. We had a cold front yesterday, but it’s still going to be a little warm this afternoon, so what gives? Yesterday’s front was more of a humidity front than a true cold front, so it ushered in drier air for today but the air mass wasn’t really a lot cooler. If you took the temperature about 5,000′ over our heads, which is a good altitude to look at to define the “air mass,” today is only about 3 or 4 degrees cooler than it was yesterday. But it was the dry air that helped allow temperatures to drop more this morning. Now, a secondary front is going to usher in the notably cooler air tonight. That air mass 5,000′ over our heads will drop about 10 to 12 degrees behind that front. This second front will have no moisture to work with, so no rain is expected, but winds may pick up just a bit after it passes and linger into Saturday.

That secondary front will allow temperatures to dip into the 40s tonight across most of the area.

Saturday should be another beautiful day with full sunshine. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler though, with highs only in the 60s. Look for mostly a rinse and repeat on Sunday, with morning lows in the 40s and a slightly warmer afternoon around 70° or in the low-70s.

Monday

Look for the time honored tradition of onshore flow to resume sometime on Monday. Initially, the day will start cool once again, with 40s or 50s across the region, but we’ll warm into the mid-70s in most spots during the afternoon.

Tuesday and Wednesday

Onshore flow will likely strengthen some here as a fairly tight pressure gradient boosts southerly winds a bit. Tuesday should start in the 50s to near 60, then warm deep into the 70s with sunshine. An 80 degree reading can’t be entirely ruled out in spots on Tuesday afternoon. By Wednesday, look for higher humidity to have fully taken hold with a warm morning (60s) and a rather warm afternoon (80 degrees or better). We should also begin to see a few more clouds by Wednesday.

Beyond Wednesday

The forecast after Wednesday begins to get a little difficult. I think we should see a cold front arrive sometime around Thursday or Friday, but what happens after that front gets through is tough to say. I’m not sure we are going to lock in a fourth consecutive gorgeous weekend, though that’s not an impossibility. But it would appear another front or two could be in the mix heading into Thanksgiving week, with perhaps the strongest one yet just prior to the holiday.

The usual doomsayers have been spreading rumors and such out there on YouTube and Facebook/Meta about “the polar vortex,” among other nonsense. Quite frankly, nothing we’re seeing in the Thanksgiving week timeframe looks that remarkable. As our average temperatures drop and the fronts get a little stronger, perhaps we could see our first official 30s of the season show up sometime Thanksgiving week. It’s far too early to say that will happen with any confidence though. And anything worse than that seems highly unlikely. The average date of our first sub-40 degree temperature in Houston is November 17th, so that would actually be close to normal. We’ll keep you posted.