In brief: A line of severe storms is likely to affect much of the greater Houston area this afternoon. Please be weather aware as you venture out between now and about 5 pm CT.

As of noon, a strong line of thunderstorms has developed near College Station and Huntsville, and it should move steadily southward this afternoon. The time of most concern for the Houston metro area will be from 1 pm to 5 pm, as the system pushes into central parts of the city and down to the coast. Not all of Houston will see severe weather, but a good portion of the metro area is likely to be affected.

Please note that, as of this time, we are not expecting the derecho-like weather that Houston experienced about 10 days ago. However, there is the potential for severe thunderstorms, and that includes the usual threats.

In terms of rainfall, I expect that much of the area will receive 1 to 3 inches, but as these storms move into Houston they could slow somewhat due to interaction with the Gulf of Mexico seabreeze. In this case we could see some higher isolated totals of 4 or more inches of rainfall. As for hail, I think a high-end size would be ping pong ball-sized hail. Straight-line winds could reach up to 60 mph. It is also possible that we see some isolated tornadoes.

The worst of this mess should push through by the late afternoon or early evening hours. As a result of this storm system, my expectation is for quieter weather tonight.

Matt and I will be tracking these storms closely, and if there are changes in the forecast we will update the site.

In brief: Yes, you are not crazy. Monday did feel incredibly hot outside, and the smoky haze from agricultural fires in Central America did not help. We’re now going to see a pattern change that could bring storms into the metro area as early as this afternoon. Today will be a day to be weather aware and we’ll update the site again by around noon.

Memorial Day madness

Houston did not set record high temperatures on Monday. The official high at Bush Intercontinental was 96 degrees, two degrees shy of the all time high of 98 degrees for May 27. However, it felt extremely warm thanks to incredibly high dewpoints. For example, at Houston’s Hobby Airport the heat index reached 115 degrees. This is a combination of temperature and relative humidity.

Even if you don’t have context for how hot that is—and believe me, it’s hot—Houston has never had a heat index of 115 degrees in May before. Moreover, Hobby Airport did not have a heat index that warm during all of last summer, which was excruciatingly hot. You’ve got to go all the way back to August of 1998 for a reading that high. Last summer recorded much hotter temperatures, but the humidity was somewhat lower, in part due to drought-like conditions. Fortunately, we’re now going to step back from the abyss of extreme heat for awhile.

Tuesday

Today will not be nearly so hot. Partly cloudy skies will help to moderate temperatures a bit, although we are still likely to see highs in the low 90s with plenty of humidity. The difficult question is severe weather potential, with the possibility of storms this afternoon, and then again overnight. As of 6:30 am CT there was a cluster of storms near Dallas, moving southward. The question is what happens to this system, and whether it holds together long enough to affect the Houston area. There has been a lack of consistency in our guidance.

Right now my sense is that this system will hold together as it approaches our northern areas, such as Conroe and College Station, shortly after noon. Then we could see this line of severe weather move from north to south, with strong thunderstorms, wind, and hail pushing into Houston during the afternoon hours. It could reach the coast by 4 or 5 pm. The usual severe storm risks are there, with heavy rainfall, damaging, winds, hail, and possibly a few tornadoes. We will update the site by around noon when we have more confidence in this forecast.

Then there is the potential for a second round of storms tonight after midnight. However, this is probably conditional on what happens this afternoon. I.e. if we get a fairly pronounced line of storms this afternoon, things will be quieter tonight. But if storms peter out later today before reaching Houston, a more pronounced line of storms could pass through tonight.

Wednesday and Thursday

These should be a pair of partly to mostly cloudy days, which will help limit highs to the upper 80s. Each day will also see a healthy chance of showers, although the likelihood of severe weather appears to be considerably lower. Nights will be warm, in the upper 70s.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

The end of the week and the weekend look slightly warmer, with daily highs of around 90 degrees and partly sunny days. The atmosphere will remain somewhat unsettled, but daily rain chances will drop to perhaps 30 percent, so if you have outdoor plans this weekend I don’t see anything like a total washout at this point. Let’s see how the forecast evolves.

In brief: Just a short update this morning due to the Memorial Day holiday, but it’s warranted due to the extreme heat over inland parts of the metro area. After today we’ll see somewhat cooler weather and a return of some modest rain chances later this week.

Monday

Today will be sunny and hot, with much of the area seeing high temperatures in the mid- to upper-90s. This will be the region’s hottest weather since late September of last year, and it will feel sweltering outside. Please take heat precautions if you are outdoors from the late morning to late afternoon hours. There is a slight chance of showers, and possibly a few thunderstorms, during the overnight hours as a boundary slides toward the Houston region. However the most likely scenario is that a capping inversion remains solidly in place, preventing the development of any storms. Lows tonight will be around 80 degrees.

Tuesday

A partly to mostly sunny day with highs in the low-90s. Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning will see another chance for some storms, but once again they’ll be battling against a capping inversion. I’d peg the chance of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night at about 20 percent, but we’ll need to fine tune this in tomorrow’s forecast.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

These will be partly sunny days with highs in the upper 80s to 90 degrees. Each of these days will see a decent chance of rain, perhaps on the order of 40 percent or so, in the absence of high pressure. However, I don’t have a great handle on the details or the timing. Showers will be most likely along and north of Interstate 10, where accumulations of 1 inch or more are possible.

Saturday and Sunday

Rain chances will linger into the weekend, with highs likely in the upper 80s to 90 degrees. At this point both days should see at least partly sunny skies, with Sunday having the greater chance of being mostly rain free.

Have a great holiday!

In brief: Summer’s here, and through Memorial Day you will find little to no relief in the area. From there, the weather pattern may get a little more unsettled next week, but nothing stands out that we can hang our hat on just yet.

I know that no one wants to talk about hurricane season after last week, but NOAA’s extremely active seasonal forecast released yesterday should remind us to plan for the season to come. We wrote about their forecast and the current state of the tropics yesterday at our companion site, The Eyewall. We’ll be updating that site every day or two going forward as the weather requires.

For those struggling with continued poor air quality thanks to the haze and smoke from agricultural fires in Central America and Mexico, I don’t think we will see much relief this weekend. I am hopeful we get a shift in wind next week though.

Yesterday’s low temperature at Hobby Airport was 80 degrees, the third time already we’ve failed to drop below that mark this year. We’ve already tied for the earliest first 80 degree morning on record at Hobby this year, on May 21st, matching the previous record set in 2022. We are running about a month and a half ahead of normal, for whatever “normal” is worth anymore. Today will be the seventh morning where the low temperature has failed to drop below 78 degrees, which sets a new record at Hobby for the most before June 1st. We should add at least three or four more days to that before we get a wee bit of relief next week just before the calendar changes.

Anyway, I write all this to say that this is not a normal start to summer. It’s hitting strong and fast. And don’t be shocked to see a heat advisory this weekend. Practice heat safety this weekend. Yeah, it’s Houston and it’s always hot in summer. But we are not yet acclimated to these temperatures for the season, so heat illness can come on quick and unexpectedly. Some of us are still cleaning up from last week or even still without power. Check on those folks, keep your pets cool, and look before you lock.

Today through Sunday

The front portion of the holiday weekend looks partly to mostly sunny and hot. Expect highs in the mid-90s and lows near 80, or essentially normal weather for late July, not late May.

I would not be entirely floored to see an isolated thunderstorm roll through areas north of Houston, perhaps as close as The Woodlands or Magnolia. Most people will not see one, but if you do, it could rain hard for a short time, with lightning, gusty winds, or even some hail. Again, this is most likely to be isolated and north of Highway 105, but perhaps as close as Montgomery or northern Harris County.

Memorial Day

This should be the hottest day of the stretch. Expect mid to upper 90s and a mix of sun and clouds with just a slight chance of a late shower or storm north and west.

Sunday and Monday’s heat will border on “extreme” levels, so maximum heat precautions should be taken here.

Rest of next week

Things start to change a bit next week. Temperatures will shift to become a little “less hot,” which means more like low-90s than mid-90s. Nighttime lows may drift back more into the mid-70s. A series of disturbances may try to erode away the northeast portion of the ridge of high pressure over Texas, so that could be just enough to fire back up some thunderstorms after Monday. I don’t even want to begin to speculate on timing or details or any of that. Just know that the stagnant pattern of this weekend may change a bit next week.