In brief: After a very cold end to this week, Houston begins to warm up this weekend. It’s possible some of this weekend’s rain begins as mixed rain and sleet tonight and Saturday morning, but no accumulation will occur. A decent rain for parts of the area this weekend will lead to quieter, warmer weather and patchy fog next week.

Yesterday ended up being the fourth coldest day of winter on an average temperature basis, with the high and low combining to average about 35 degrees. Our coldest day this winter was back during our January snowstorm, with a daily average of 32.5 degrees. One of the challenges with “daily average” is that if you have a high temperature at midnight, as we did on Wednesday, it doesn’t necessarily capture how the true day was. Whatever the case, it has been a cold finish to the week.

Today

This morning? Not quite as cold.

We were probably helped by some clouds that started to roll in after sunset. That said, it’s still chilly this morning, and with the cloud cover, temperatures will struggle again today. The forecast high is around 40 degrees, and there’s at least some chance we never get there and stay mired in the 30s all day. Bundle up.

Tonight: “Conversational” sleet?

Temperatures won’t go very far tonight; they’ll probably stay in the mid to upper-30s, rising a bit toward sunrise possibly. There is a chance of some light rain or drizzle both tonight and Saturday morning. With the cold, dry air mass still in place, I would not be at all surprised to see some of the precipitation fall as sleet in spots. It won’t accumulate, but this is the kind of setup that would periodically lead to you leaping out of your chair because you “thought you heard pinging outside.” And indeed, you’d look and see some ice pellets falling or a small gathering of them in your gutters. Whatever the case, conversational wintry precip is possible tonight and early on tomorrow, but again no real accumulation will occur.

Rest of Saturday and Sunday

As Saturday progresses, onshore flow continues, and temperatures warm we will see more and more scattered showers develop (no more sleet). A few heavier showers or even some non-severe thunderstorms are possible tomorrow afternoon, especially south and east of Houston. That continues into tomorrow night and Sunday before the whole thing shifts east of the area by midday Sunday, leading to some gradual clearing.

All told, this should be a good soaking for coastal areas in particular. As you go north and west of the city, rain totals will sharply drop off to under an inch and probably around or under than a half-inch from Conroe through Columbus. Sunday’s high temperatures will bounce back into the 50s.

Monday through Wednesday

We are going to head back to spring next week, with a big warm up Monday (upper-60s to near 7), Tuesday (low to mid-70s), and Wednesday (mid to upper-70s). We should see sunshine return as well in this time. There will probably be some locally dense fog Monday morning, so just be aware of that. And with warm weather after a decent cool spell, you can almost guarantee that sea fog will return to coastal areas for at least a time next week.

Our next cold front looks to arrive sometime Thursday with just a slight cooldown for us. No sign of additional freezing temperatures is showing up in the forecast. But, as it goes, things can always change. We’ll continue to watch.

In brief: Houston is seeing some of its coldest weather of the season this morning, but the good news is that we are going to get no colder than this. Also, some places across the state are much colder this morning. We’ll experience a slow warming trend into the weekend, with a rainy Saturday, before spring arrives next week.

Cold status

As anticipated, much of the Houston region has seen temperatures fall to between 25 and 30 degrees this morning, with only the coast remaining at or just above freezing. Daytime temperatures on Wednesday were colder than expected, hovering around the freezing mark all day, but persistent clouds overnight helped prevent lows from dropping too severely this morning. We have one more freezing night in Houston before nights become a little bit warmer.

Thursday

High pressure continues to reign over the region. And while that means sultry temperatures in the summer here in Houston, during the winter it typically means we’re seeing cold air advection from the north. With mostly cloudy skies this morning we will be slow to warm, although most of the region should reach above freezing by around noon today. Highs will generally be in the mid- to upper-30s for most, although some far inland areas may only briefly reach above-freezing this afternoon. At least winds will be lessening, as gusts finally die down later today. Expect another cold night, with temperatures 1 to 3 degrees warmer than Wednesday night.

Friday

This will be a mostly cloudy and cold day, with highs in the upper 30s to 40 degrees. Temperatures won’t fall much on Friday night, with lows in the upper 30s.

Saturday

I’m afraid the first half of the weekend looks rather dreary. Temperatures on Saturday should, at least, push into the mid- to upper-40s. But we’re going to see continued cloudy skies, and a coastal low is going to bring a healthy chance of rain into the area. The most likely time for rain will be Saturday after noon, Saturday night, and Sunday morning. In terms of accumulations, most areas are looking at 0.5 to 1.5 inch. So I don’t anticipate severe storms, just some cold and unpleasant rain. Lows on Saturday night should fall into the low- to mid-40s for most locations.

Sunday

After a potentially wet start, Sunday may see a few breaks in the clouds during the later afternoon hours. Expect high temperatures in the mid- to upper-50s, with lows on Sunday night in the 40s.

Next week

Sunshine arrives on Monday, and we should see a pleasant week with highs in the 70s, generally, and lows in the 50s. Just as we’re pushing up toward 80 degrees mid-week, a weak front may arrive by Wednesday or so to cool us down slightly. But it’s all going to feel fairly spring-like, and the sunshine should be grand. Early next week we’ll take a look at whether we’re done with freezes in Houston for this year, but I think the answer is that we likely are after this week.

In brief: After Tuesday’s mild weather, winter is back on the menu this morning and it’s a feast for all. With gusty winds today it will feel cold all day and night. By early Thursday morning temperatures should fall below freezing for all of the metro area, with the possible exception of the immediate coast. Thursday night into Friday morning will be nearly as cold.

Cold and gusty

Be sure and bundle up before heading outside this morning. Air temperatures are generally in the mid- to upper-30s across the metro area. However, with northerly winds at about 20 mph, and gusts of 30 mph or higher, it feels considerably colder. These strong winds will be with us for most of today, so it will be brisk all day long. Fortunately the precipitation is over so we have no concerns about ice or anything like that on roads for the next couple of days.

Our biggest concern will be cold, with a light freeze likely for most of the Houston metro area, and a hard freeze (25 degrees, or below) is possible for inland areas, including The Woodlands and Katy. This freeze should be less impactful than the one we experienced earlier this winter, when temperatures were 5 to 10 degrees colder. Statewide, much of Texas will be in a deep freeze. However, ERCOT forecasts that sufficient electricity should be available.

Wednesday

Wind chills are in the teens across much of Houston this morning, and we’ll be slow to warm up with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Eventually temperatures should reach the upper-40s this afternoon, but I don’t expect these gusty winds to die down before this evening, or even the overnight hours. With partially clear skies and lesser winds, tonight should bring the coldest temperatures for Houston. The map below shows the best estimate for minimum temperatures on Wednesday night and Thursday morning.

Thursday

Although the winds will be lighter, we can still see some gusts of 15 or 20 mph on Thursday morning, so when you add the wind chill on top of frigid air temperatures, we’re looking at wind chills in the teens again. So another morning to really bundle up before heading outside. Skies will be sunny on Thursday, so that will be nice. (And it’s probably our last sustained sunshine until Sunday afternoon or Monday, so soak it up). But it will still be cold, in the mid-40s. Expect another cold night, with temperatures perhaps 1 or 2 degrees warmer than Wednesday night.

Friday

Clouds will build back in, making for a very chilly day. Expect highs to maybe only top out at about 40 degrees. Fortunately, with the thick clouds, temperatures won’t fall much on Friday night.

Saturday

We’ll start to warm up on Saturday, but the proximity of a low over the Gulf of Mexico will bring a healthy chance of showers into the forecast for Saturday during the day, and likely well into the evening. I don’t think these will be particularly impactful rains, but with air temperatures generally in the vicinity of 50 degrees on Saturday, any light to moderate showers will be cold and unwelcome. Lows on Saturday night drop into the mid-40s.

Sunday

Some light showers may linger into Sunday morning, but by the afternoon I expect to see some partially clearing skies. Temperatures will be warmer, with highs in the low 60s. This should lead to a period of mostly sunny skies.

Next week

Spring is in full bloom next week, with highs generally in the 70s and lows in the 50s. We should see plenty of sunshine. A weak front may move in toward the end of the work week, but at this point it does not appear as though there will be much of a cold air push with it.

In brief: We’ll see a reasonably warm day today, and beginning later this morning and running through this evening there will be the possibility of showers and potentially a few thunderstorms. That changes overnight as drier and sharply colder air moves in. You’ll want to bundle up on Wednesday and Thursday mornings.

Bundle up heads up

Don’t let today’s mild temperatures lull you into thinking winter is over. Even when you go to bed this evening, especially for coastal counties, you won’t feel like anything particularly cold is in the cards. But during the overnight hours a potent front will sweep into the area. By sunrise on Wednesday morning air temperatures will have fallen into the low 40s. However, with northerly winds of about 20 mph and noticeably higher gusts, it will feel much colder outside, especially for areas north and west of downtown Houston. So when you’re packing the kids off to school, or dressing for work, make sure to wear an extra later to ward off the cold and wind.

Tuesday

As noted above, the weather today will be rather mild for mid-February. We are going to see high temperatures in the mid-60s beneath cloudy skies. The warm weather will hang around all day before a cold front pushes through during the overnight hours. In addition to warmer air, we’re going to see scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, with the peak potential between about 6 pm and midnight. I don’t believe these storms will be too impactful, but you may need to dodge some showers. Accumulations look greatest to the east of Interstate 45, where 0.5 to 1 inch of rain is possible.

Wednesday

Temperatures will begin to plummet after midnight across Houston, and we’ll wake up to a gusty, cold morning. Winds will peak at 20 to 25 mph sustained on Wednesday morning, with higher gusts. With clearing skies we should see highs in the mid- to upper-40s, but the winds will make it feel cold all day. With partly cloudy skies, we’ll see favorable conditions for cooling on Wednesday night. I expect lows to fall to about 30 degrees in the urban core of Houston, and for coastal counties perhaps a degree or two warmer, at or just above freezing. Inland areas should drop into the mid- to upper-20s.

Thursday

Winds will not die off entirely on Thursday morning, and with gusts of 15 to 20 mph there will be a distinct chill in the air. It will “feel” well below freezing across the metro area, so this will be another morning to bundle up. Highs on Thursday, with mostly sunny skies, will top out in the mid-40s. Another night of freezing temperatures is possible for inland areas, although conditions should be 1 to 4 degrees warmer for most locations.

Friday

A cloudy and cold day, with highs in the low 40s. Friday night will be chilly, with lows dropping into the upper 30s for most of the region, and some light drizzle possible.

Saturday and Sunday

A coastal low pressure system will help provide a surge of moisture into the atmosphere on Saturday, so we’re going to see a healthy chance of light-to-moderate showers during the daytime, with decreasing coverage during the evening hours. Expect high temperatures in the low 50s, and overnight lows in the mid-40s. Sunday looks more spring-like, with partly to mostly sunny skies and highs in the lower 60s to mid-60s.

Next week

The majority of next week looks mild, with high temperatures in the 70s, lows in the 50s, and a fair amount of sunshine. Hello, spring?