In brief: A weak front tonight will bring some slightly drier air into the region, but for the most part this week will be characterized by days in the 80s with plenty of sunshine. Rainfall will remain scarce until the weekend, but a pattern change next week could improve our chances for wet stuff.

A dry spring

It has not rained much this spring. Although some coastal areas have soils characterized as “abnormally dry,” the Houston region is not in a drought. However, I have noticed a few of my neighbors putting out sprinklers of late. I had to double check my calendar to make sure we’re still in April, not June. And sure enough we are. Over the last 30 days, much of the Houston region has received only 25 to 50 percent of their normal rainfall for the year. While everything is still green, for now, the underlying soils in most areas are pretty dry.

When temperatures are in the 70s it takes a long time for dry soils to turn to parched soils. However, we are now seeing days in the 80s, with the sunshine reaching a higher angle in the sky. Accordingly to stave off drought we are going to need some precipitation. That’s not going to happen for much of this week, but if we look at the longer term forecast, there are some hits of a pattern change this weekend, and next week.

Monday

It is a warm morning, with much of the area near 70 degrees. Despite a few low-lying clouds this morning, I still expect mostly sunny skies this afternoon, with high temperatures reaching the mid- to upper-80s. With dewpoints in the lower 60s it will feel moderately humid. Winds will be out of the south at 5 to 10 mph. Expect another mild night, with lows in the 60s. Some time after a midnight, and it likely won’t be perceptible, a weak front will push into the Houston area.

Tuesday and Wednesday

The main effect of this front will be to bring some moderately drier air into the region. So Tuesday, and to some extent Wednesday, will feel a bit less humid. Tuesday may start out mostly cloudy as a result of the front, but I don’t expect much, if any rain with its passage. Expect high temperatures in the mid-80s, with lows on Tuesday night dropping into the low 60s for most of the region (it will be even cooler to the northeast of the city). Wednesday will bring highs in the low- to mid-80s but already winds will be turning to come from the southeast. So by the afternoon on Wednesday I expect humidity levels to be on the rise with fairly robust southeasterly winds.

Thursday and Friday

As a result, I expect the end of the week to be partly to mostly sunny, with high temperatures in the upper 80s. Some inland locations may reach 90 degrees. So all in all, pretty warm and humid for April. Lows will only fall to around 70 degrees. There will he the slightest chance of some showers by Friday or so, but most of us should remain dry.

Saturday and Easter Sunday

Saturday should bring more of the same: partly sunny, warm, and humid. Perhaps we’ll see a few stray showers. However at some point this weekend high pressure should shift away, and this will open us up to somewhat better rain chances. For now, I’ll say we have about a one-in-three chance of some showers on Easter Sunday, to go along with warm and humid conditions. It’s difficult to say much more than this with any precision but it’s something we’re watching.

Next week

Most of next weeks looks to remain fairly warm and somewhat humid. Think days in the mid- to upper-80s with nights around 70 degrees, give or take. The big thing I’m watching for is rain chances, especially in the absence of high pressure. The “bear” case is perhaps 1 inch of rain next week, but the “bull” case is several inches. Some of the AI-based weather models are on the bullish side, showing several inches of total rainfall next week. We’ll see. By that point, our soils will be happy for what we can get.

In brief: A weak front arrives in Houston this morning to drop humidity levels down for a couple of days. Beyond this, the region will see warm weather for the next 10 days, with sunny or mostly sunny skies. Really conditions won’t change much. If Houston’s weather were like this all of the time, Matt and I would be out of job. Or, in this case, a hobby. Have a great weekend!

Friday

Temperatures are in the low 60s this morning, and we are again going to have sunny skies today. What will be a little different is winds, which will shift to come from the northeast this morning at 5 to 10 mph. This is due to the passage of a weak front that will move offshore, bringing dewpoints down into the 40s for today and Saturday before the onshore flow brings them back up. Highs today will reach the mid- to upper-80s in Houston. Lows should drop into the mid- to upper-50s for most locations, and this will be our coolest night for some time.

Saturday and Sunday

This weekend looks to bring sunny weather into the Houston region should you have any outdoor plans. And really, you should. Look for highs in the low 80s with sunny skies on Saturday, and continued dry air. As light southerly winds return later in the day look for lows to only drop to around 60 degrees in Houston on Saturday night. Sunday will be a little less ideal, with southerly winds picking up to 10 to 15 mph, and it looks like we may see some gusts in the range of 25 mph. So expect higher humidity to go along with temperatures in the mid-80s. Lows on Sunday night will drop into the mid-60s.

Next week

As Matt mentioned in yesterday’s post, next week’s weather looks to be more or less the same. Most days will bring highs in the 80s with nighttime temperatures in the 60s. We may push upwards toward 90 degrees by the end of the work week. Dewpoints are going to hover around the upper 50s to lower 60s which is a tad humid, but far from uncomfortable like we can see in Houston. Days should bring a few more clouds than this week, but we’re still going to see lots of sunshine. Rain chances look low until at least next weekend. Speaking of next weekend, I don’t yet have great confidence in the forecast for Easter Sunday, but highs in the 80s seem most likely. At this point, however, we cannot rule out a chance of showers.

In brief: Sunshine for days in Houston.

To be honest, there is very little to discuss with respect to Houston’s weather forecast. We expect sunshine, warm and dry weather, and some ground ozone/air quality issues in the mornings and evenings over the next few days. Highs will be in the 80s with lows in the 50s and 60s. Beginning around Sunday, we’ll add some more humidity to the mix and slightly hotter weather with highs near 90 degrees by Monday and lows in the 60s. Overall, it looks great, albeit a little hotter than usual for April.

Our next meaningful rain chance likely does not come until the middle of next week, if then. More to come.

Hurricane season preview

With that out of the way, we know some of you were curious about our thoughts on Colorado State’s hurricane outlook released last week. I posted a bit about that over at our nationally-focused companion site, The Eyewall yesterday. I am posting most of it again here to reach our Houston audience.

Late last week, the team at Colorado State University issued their always hotly anticipated seasonal hurricane outlook for the Atlantic Basin. To clear this up at the beginning, their forecast calls for:

• 17 named storms (normal 14)
• 9 hurricanes (normal 7)
• 4 major hurricanes (normal 3)
• Accumulated cyclone energy: 155 (normal 123)

Nothing about this forecast on the surface is especially notable or alarming or fascinating. It’s simply a slightly above average forecast.

But what is somewhat notable about their forecast is some of the under the hood items they address. First, we are likely to be coming out of a La Niña event, something we discussed last back in February. But as the CSU team notes, we don’t know for sure if we’re headed for El Niño or ENSO neutral (La Nada) conditions. ENSO neutral summers combined with warm water temperatures “typically provides a more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification.” In other words, hurricanes like those background conditions.

We do not yet have a “plume” from the C3S suite for April, but the March plume skewed slightly toward El Niño development.

If we get to El Niño conditions by late summer or fall, that does not guarantee that conditions will shift to become more hostile to hurricane development. But that may take the edge off a bit. However, if we “hang” near the neutral line or even in weak La Niña territory, any hostile conditions may be apt to stay away, ensuring a busier season than usual.

In addition to the forecast for named storms and such, the CSU team also does try to convert that seasonal outlook to a prediction of U.S. landfall risk. Indeed, with a more active season expected, the odds of a U.S. landfall are also higher. They have a 51 percent chance of a major hurricane landfall on the U.S. coast, compared to a historical average of 43 percent. The odds on the East Coast are 26 percent, compared to 21 percent typically. And in the Gulf, the landfall odds between the Florida Panhandle and Brownsville are 33 percent versus a 27 percent average.

According to the CSU team, all model guidance is pointing to an above-normal season. Water temperatures remain well above long-term averages across the Atlantic. As we noted earlier this year, however, this is not last year’s Atlantic sea-surface temperature profile. But it’s still quite warm.

From the map above, you’ll notice that the eastern Atlantic has cooled markedly since last year, however the Gulf, Caribbean, and northern Atlantic Ocean are all warmer. The fire that was burning all last summer in the eastern Atlantic is still smoldering, but it has been somewhat extinguished. The Gulf and Caribbean are another matter. The Gulf is warmer than 2024 by a good bit but still lags 2023. While the Caribbean was warmer than 2024 in March, it has since cooled some in April, taking it back under 2024 levels. Water temperature conditions can change quickly, but the bottom line is that the Atlantic, with the exception of the eastern basin are in the upper echelon of warm years at this point. The warmer overall waters in March in the eastern North Atlantic (north of the tropics), along with the warm Caribbean do correlate to active hurricane seasons.

The bottom line is that the underlying data support the idea of an active hurricane season — but not to the levels feared last year. But there aren’t very many red flags at this time arguing against that outcome. At least last year, we had the expectation of a developing La Niña to help grease the wheels a bit, and a slow development could have slowed the hurricane season a bit. This year? There’s no real glaring red flag that says the season will bust. But hurricane seasons always have surprises. Hopefully this year’s involves calm.

In brief: Other than some periods of poor air quality, the forecast for Houston is about as perfect for springtime as it gets with sunshine and low humidity through the weekend.

Today through Sunday

This is really going to extend an incredible stretch of sunny weather here in Houston. Very few clouds are expected over the next 5 days, with sunshine each day. You will see and hear about air quality advisories. The plentiful sunshine tends to interact with pollutants from cars and petrochemical facilities to produce ground ozone. You can read more about this here, but suffice to say, there will be periods of unhealthy air quality in the morning or evening, especially today, tomorrow, and Friday.

Temperatures will flop around a bit. We’ll do low 80s today, mid-80s tomorrow and Friday, low to mid-80s on Saturday, and then mid to upper-80s on Sunday. Morning lows will be in the 50s or 60s. Overall, this will also be a fairly pleasant, dry air mass. Humidity will increase some this weekend but not to levels that would be deemed uncomfortable.

Next week

Even next week the pattern doesn’t change a whole heck of a lot for Southeast Texas. We should see more humidity, a little bit more in the way of cloud cover, and eventually some additional storm chances. Those probably don’t become really notable until later in the week. Temperatures should start to increase some and push 90 degrees by Monday or Tuesday.

Bottom line: Enjoy this week’s stretch because you never know how many more like this we’ll get before summer sets in.