In brief: Houston won’t see much sunshine for the next three days, and there’s a decent chance of some storms Thursday ahead of a cool front. This front will usher in some amazing weather for the weekend, with sunny skies, dry air, and modestly warm days. For mid-winter, it will be pretty sublime.

Tuesday

Today will be cool and gray, with an easterly flow at the surface. I would expect high temperatures to max out at about 60 degrees for most locations due to mostly cloudy skies. Some very light, misty showers are possible, but I think most of us will not see any precipitation today. Winds will be light. Low temperatures tonight will not fall far, perhaps into the mid-50s.

Wednesday

As winds shift to come from the south we’ll see warmer air and an infusion of moisture into the atmosphere. Although skies remain cloudy, this should allow high temperatures to push upward toward about 70 degrees, with increasing humidity. With all of the moisture in the atmosphere, there will be a decent chance of light rain. However, given the absence of a forcing function I think any showers will be fairly scattered and of low intensity. Lows drop only into the lower 60s on Wednesday night, with a slight chance of rain.

Thursday

A low-pressure system in the upper atmosphere will push a cold front toward our region, and this will produce at least a low-end chance of storms in the Houston area. Although the details remain a bit fuzzy, my sense is that a line of storms will develop to the west of Houston by or before noon, and push through the city during the afternoon. Ahead of this line temperatures will be warm, in the upper 70s perhaps, and muggy. Behind it, dry air filters in pretty quickly. As for the storms themselves, the main threat is thunder and damaging winds. There’s probably a slight potential for some tornadoes, as well, but it’s too early to have much confidence in such a forecast. Temperatures should fall into the lower 50s on Thursday night, with a slight chance of rain lingering behind the front.

Friday

Expect a sunny, pleasant day with highs in the upper 60s. Winds may be a bit gusty from the north, reaching about 20 mph. Lows on Friday night should drop into the upper 40s.

Saturday and Sunday

This will be our nicest weekend in a while. We’re talking sunny skies, and relatively low humidity, and no weather concerns whatsoever. Highs on Saturday likely will be in the upper 60s, and reach the lower 70s by Sunday. Plan your outdoor activities with confidence.

Next week

Most of next week should feel spring-like, with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s. There’s not a super-strong signal for any rainfall. By next weekend a somewhat stronger front may arrive, but at this point it does not look like anything crazy (such as a freeze) is in the cards. We’ll see.

In brief: This morning’s post discusses the potential for rain showers this week, which is high on Wednesday and Thursday. However, that will be offset by what looks to be fantastic, spring-like weekend. Also, we’re starting to get questions about another Arctic air blast during the first week of February. Is there any validity to this?

Monday

After Sunday’s widespread rains, a cold front has moved offshore during the overnight hours. It won’t go far into the Gulf of Mexico, but it will go far enough to bring somewhat cooler and cloudy conditions today. Expect high temperatures of about 60 degrees, with light northerly winds. Low temperatures tonight will fall into the lower 50s for most of the metro area, so the watch word for today is mild.

Tuesday

This will be another gray, slightly warmer day, as winds shift to come from the east at the surface. Expect highs in the lower 60s. There are mixed signals from the atmosphere in terms of rainfall potential, but I think the most likely outcome is the low-end potential for some light showers. Skies, otherwise, will be cloudy. Lows on Tuesday night will only fall into the mid- to upper-50s in Houston.

Wednesday and Thursday

These will be warmer and wetter days. Expect high temperatures in the low- to mid-70s, with fairly humid air. (Not summer-like air, to be clear, but definitely a fair bit of humidity for January). Showers and possibly some thunderstorms will be possible from mid-morning Wednesday through Thursday night. Most locations will probably pick up 1 to 2 inches of rain, but we certainly cannot rule out some higher isolated totals. The threat of heavier rainfall will probably lie north of Houston, and areas such as Lufkin may face the potential for some flooding. It’s possible that a final line of showers and thunderstorms may accompany the passage of a cool front on Thursday night or Friday.

Friday

Rain chances will end some time on Friday morning, after which we’ll see clearing skies. Expect a pleasant day with high temperatures around 70 degrees, and a cooler night with lows in the upper 40s for much of Houston.

Saturday and Sunday

This weekend’s weather looks exceptional. We’re talking sunny skies and low humidity. Highs around 70 degrees. Modestly chilly nights. Like seriously, try to plan something outdoors this weekend.

Next week and an Arctic blast?

Most of next week should be mild, with high temperatures in the lower 70s, and overnight temperatures in the upper 50s or lower 60s. However we’ve started to get a bunch of questions about the potential for another Arctic blast around the weekend of February 8. This is pretty far into the future, but so far there appears to be far more buzz about this on social media than there is evidence to substantiate a seriously cold blast. I’m not ready to rule anything out for a forecast that is more than 10 days into the future. The models are hinting at a frontal passage around that time, but at this point I’d say lows are more likely to be in the 40s rather than the 30s or even 20s. So we’ll keep an eye on things, but I wouldn’t go wrapping your pipes again just yet.

In brief: Houston is emerging from the cold now with highs again in the 50s today and then 60s tomorrow and Sunday. Rain chances return Saturday night and Sunday. Locally heavy rain is likely on Sunday in parts of the area that could lead to some isolated street flooding. A much milder week is on tap next week, along with another chance of rain and storms later in the week.

After 4 straight mornings with lows in the 20s, Houston officially failed to drop below 30 this morning as we continue to thaw out. Still, keep an eye out for patchy black ice on area roads this morning. This weekend will feel and look more spring-like, however as rain returns to the forecast on Sunday, including some locally heavy rain.

Today

Yesterday was a chilly but nice day. Today will essentially be a carbon copy. Expect sunshine and highs well into the 50s.

Saturday

Onshore flow returns tomorrow, which means temperatures will get a boost into the 60s after morning lows in the mid to upper-30s. Look for sunshine to fade behind increasing clouds, a sign of things to come on Sunday.

Sunday & Monday

Scattered showers should begin to break out across the region around midnight or so Saturday night into Sunday morning. Look for coverage and intensity of showers to pick up after sunrise with the focus of the heavier downpours drifting from northwest to southeast. We wouldn’t be shocked to see a few places get multiple rounds of rain and thunderstorms on Sunday morning and afternoon.

With the amount of atmospheric moisture well above average (almost 200 percent of normal) on Sunday, there will almost certainly be enough heavy rain in spots to produce localized street flooding. If you have plans on Sunday, just keep that in mind. A cool front will nudge offshore Monday, likely ending the rain chances by mid to late morning.

Sunday morning lows will not drop below 50 degrees. Then, we’ll see a range of temperatures Sunday afternoon, with highs near 60 or so in Huntsville to near 70 in Lake Jackson. Mid to upper-60s should dominate in the city. Monday’s front has minimal “oomph” behind it, so look for temperatures to only be a few degrees cooler Monday.

Look for rain totals to average a half-inch to an inch on Sunday and Monday, but it’s likely that some more localized spots see 2 to 4 inches of rain. This seems especially possible from northern Harris into Montgomery, Liberty, and Polk Counties, but it can’t be entirely ruled out elsewhere.

Rest of next week

I am assuming next week is going to feature a lot of continued clouds, so soak up the sun while we have it around. Isolated showers are possible Tuesday and Wednesday. There is growing consensus in modeling that a somewhat stronger cold front is going to push through later next week. This seems likely to feature another round or two of rain and thunder. The details are TBD, but it’s possible we double down on some heavy rain risk later next week. Stay tuned. Temps look mild next week, with highs in the 60s and lows in the 50s.

In brief: Temperatures are generally a few degrees below freezing this morning across the metro area, and you’ll want to look out for a few icy patches on area roads. But Houston is well on the way to putting this Arctic freeze behind us. So what does the rest of winter look like here?

Cold update

Most of Houston is experiencing a light freeze this morning, but temperatures are generally about 10 degrees warmer than they were on Wednesday morning. As a result there likely are still a few slick spots on roadways around Houston, including a few freeway bridges and ramps. However, these are mostly navigable if you just take a little more time and care driving this morning. For locations where temperatures are below freezing, they will rise above freezing between 9 and 10 am CT today.

The ghosts of Winter past, present, and yet to come

Now that we’re putting a significant Arctic blast in the rear view mirror, I want to take stock of the rest of winter in Houston. We’re much closer to the end than the beginning, as it is January 23. So far we’ve seen one much warmer than normal month in December, and one much colder than normal month in January. However, the final week of January looks to be fairly mild, with near normal temperatures after Friday.

Looking ahead to February, I expect we will slot back into a somewhat warmer than normal pattern in which the overall flow is more westerly (i.e. more moderate Pacific air masses) rather than northerly (i.e. Canadian and Arctic air masses) in nature. As a result the likely outcome for southern US states is warmer, according to NOAA’s monthly outlook. Although this does not mean we’re necessarily done with freezes for this year, it also would not shock me.

Thursday

We’ll see more sunshine today, and this should push high temperatures up to about 50 degrees for most of the area. Winds will be light, out of the north at 5 to 10 mph. I’d expect one more light freeze in Houston tonight, with the possibility of highs in the upper 20s for outlying areas.

Friday

This will be another fine, sunny day with highs perhaps a couple of degrees warmer, say in the lower 50s. As winds turn to come from the southwest, overnight lows will likely stay above freezing on Friday night for pretty much the entire metro area. However it will still be chilly, with temperatures dropping into the 30s for most locations.

Saturday

The overall pattern starts to change in a big way as high pressure shifts to the east, and we see an increasing onshore flow. This will allow for the development of some clouds on Saturday, and we’ll say goodbye to sunshine for awhile. Highs will reach about 60 or 65 degrees. Some light to moderate rainfall may approach the area by Saturday evening or Saturday night.

Sunday

This looks like a wet day as a slow-moving, weak front moves into, and stalls over Houston. Although we cannot rule out some briefly heavy rain, for the most part this day should just deliver a good soaking, with much of Houston picking up between 0.5 and 1.5 inches. Rain chances will probably be best in the middle of the day. Highs will reach the mid-60s. Rain chances continue, at a lower rate, overnight. Lows drop into the 50s.

Next week

Monday may see a bit of a cessation in rain, but the rest of next week should bring healthy chances each day as we enter a pattern dominated by an atmosphere with more moisture. Highs for the most part look to be in the 60s next week, with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s.