Summary: January often yields fairly placid weather in Houston, but this year we’ve had a wild ride. The last 10 days have brought sub-freezing temperatures, a light dusting of ice on area roadways, and most recently some fairly heavy rainfall and thunderstorms. Can we just get a break? Fortunately, the answer is yes.

Thursday

After the final round of storms moved through last night, we’re seeing slightly drier air filter into the region along with a weak front. Skies will eventually clear out some, so we should see partly sunny skies this afternoon to go along with highs of about 70 degrees and lower humidity. Lows tonight will drop into the 50s.

Friday

As I mentioned, it was a weak front, so it’s not going far. We’ll see the return of a southerly low as soon as Thursday night, so clouds will start to build by Friday morning. Some fog development is also likely. Highs again will be around 70 degrees, but this time with some more humidity. As a stronger front approaches we’re likely to see some rain showers on Friday afternoon and evening, especially across the eastern half of the metro area. The good news is that accumulations look to be fairly low, perhaps one to two tenths of an inch for most locations. Lows on Friday night will drop into the 50s.

Saturday

We’ll see sunny and breezy conditions on Saturday as much drier flow follows the front’s arrival. We may see some gusts up to 25 or 30 mph (closer to the coast) during the daytime, with highs likely in the mid-60s. Lows on Saturday night will drop into the mid-40s in the metro area, with cooler conditions for outlying areas.

Sunday

This will be a sunny day, with a high temperature of about 60 degrees. With lighter winds, expect overnight temperatures on Sunday night to bottom out at about 40 degrees in Houston, with outlying areas seeing the upper 30s.

Next week

We’ll experience sunny to partly sunny skies through around Wednesday, with highs in the 60s and lows generally in the 40s. After that time we should see the return of a southerly flow, with highs working their way toward 70 degrees with milder nights toward the end of the week. Some rain chances may return by Friday or Saturday, but nothing too significant looks to be in the cards.

Enjoy the quieter weather. I know I need a break.

Living in Houston is such a weird trip. We’ll go through an event like Hurricane Harvey and never, ever want to see another rain drop again. Then we’ll go through something like last summer, with its heat and drought, and the first decent rain of the fall will feel so damn cathartic. I don’t know about you, but after this week my pendulum has swung back toward not wanting to see it rain for awhile. I could do with some sunshine.

The good news is that the Sun will rise again. The bad news is that we have to get through tonight. Here’s a quick look at the forecast for the rest of today and tonight.

Wednesday night and Thursday

There have been plenty of rain showers across the metro area today, but accumulations have been manageable with most areas picking up 1 to 2 inches. We should see a few more hours of on-and-off showers before they become more scattered in nature this evening. This lull will be short lived however, as a weak front pushes through during the overnight hours.

What can you expect? Sometime between about midnight and 4 am, a broad line of showers and thunderstorms should push from west to east across the Houston region. There will be plenty of sound and fury, but the good news is that these storms should keep moving. I expect they will have cleared the area by around 4 to 6 am, so I don’t anticipate them posing a problem with getting out and about on Thursday morning. (Getting solid sleep on Wednesday night might be a problem, however, for those light sleepers among us.) In terms of accumulations overnight, I expect we’ll see some heavy rainfall, but due to storm motions I’d only anticipate accumulations of 0.5 to 1.5 inches.

We should see partly sunny skies on Thursday, with highs of around 70 degrees and some drier air—so pretty darn nice out. The region will see another chance of showers (likely with minimal accumulations) later on Friday ahead of a stronger front. This will usher in several days of sunny skies and much drier air. So by Saturday morning we’ll be done with the rain for awhile.

Summary: On Tuesday and Tuesday night the axis of heavy rainfall fell over areas north of Houston, inundating locations such as College Station and Huntsville with 3 to 6 inches. But by early Wednesday morning, as anticipated, the focus has shifted southward into Houston and down to the coast. On-and-off showers and thunderstorms can be expected for much of today in those areas. This will cause street flooding in some locations and care should be taken. A Stage 1 flood alert remains in effect for today and tonight.

Wednesday

The radar shows at-times intense pulses of showers and thunderstorms moving from southwest to northeast across the southern half of the Houston metro area this morning in response to a passing disturbance. These storms have dropped 1 to 3 inches since midnight near the coast and will continue for much of the day. However there is some evidence that the storms should wane, somewhat, in intensity later this morning and during the afternoon hours. Accordingly, we can probably expect additional accumulations of 1 to 3 inches for areas south of Interstate 10. Rain is likely further inland today as well, but accumulations should be less with the focus near the coast.

In terms of impacts, as of 6 am CT, Houston Transtar is showing no significant problems on area freeways. In terms of area rivers and bayous, Jeff Lindner of Harris County Flood Control District said he expects to see some minor flooding today along the East and West Forks of the San Jacinto River. Other bayous, for now, look to be in good condition.

High temperatures today will reach the upper 60s, with cloudy skies. Winds will be light, generally from the northwest. The best time for a break in showers will come late this afternoon into the evening hours for the Houston area.

Thursday

I expect that an additional round of showers will develop to the west of Houston late on Wednesday night, and then push through the area from west to east overnight. These storms, perhaps producing another 0.5 to 1.0 inch of rain for some locations, will end as somewhat drier air moves in with a weak front. After lingering showers end during the morning hours on Thursday, we can probably expect partly sunny skies, with highs near 70 degrees. Lows on Thursday night will drop into the 50s.

Friday

This should be another day with highs in the upper 60s to 70 degrees. Skies will be mostly cloudy. We’ll see a decent chance of showers—it doesn’t look like anything impactful—later on Friday or Friday night as a stronger front pushes through Houston. This will set the stage for clearer and sunny weather.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend will be sunny and chilly. Look for highs of about 60 degrees on both days. Saturday will be a bit breezy, with winds from the north, but Sunday should be fairly serene. Lows on both Saturday and Sunday nights will drop into the 40s in Houston, with upper 30s possible for areas further inland.

Next week

The first half of next week will see continued winter-like weather, with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s. By mid-week we’ll start warming some, and some slight- to moderate rain chances return later next week and into the weekend to go along with mild temperatures.

Summary: As expected, much of the storm action has remained north of Interstate 10 today, and that’s where the focus will likely stay through the evening. However, after a lull through the late evening hours, a strong storm system will move in from the southwest, affecting primarily coastal regions. We are maintaining a Stage 1 flood alert through Wednesday night.

Tuesday evening

A line of storms is draped across the northwest periphery of the Houston region, affecting areas such as Brenham, College Station, and Huntsville. This system should persist through the evening hours, mostly remaining to the north of Interstate 10, and likely weakening over time. An additional 1 to 3 inches of rainfall are possible for these areas between now and midnight.

Early on Wednesday

For a few hours around midnight, our area may see a bit of a lull, but then another storm system will be moving in from the southwest. This one is likely to develop near Matagorda Bay around midnight, and steadily progress to the northeast during the pre-dawn hours, bringing strong storms to Galveston and other coastal areas, and the potential for strong storms along and south of Interstate 10 in the Houston metro area. Some of these storms will likely be intense, with some high rainfall rates.

The only good news I can offer is that the system looks fairly progressive, so it should push off to the east by around sunrise on Wednesday. Therefore I don’t expect (too much) mayhem for Wednesday morning’s commute. In terms of accumulations, we could see 1 to 3 inches in the coastal counties by Wednesday morning, with the possibility of some higher bullseyes.

Later Wednesday and Thursday

Things may settle down a bit on Wednesday in the Houston metro area, but we’re likely to continue to see at least some disorganized showers and possibly thunderstorms. Coastal counties may see another round of storms late on Wednesday evening or early on Thursday, but I don’t have great confidence in that forecast just yet.

A weak front arrives on Thursday morning, and this should push all of the rain showers to our east sometime during the morning hours. Phew—I can’t imagine too many people will complain about seeing the backside of rain showers for a little while.

We’ll be back with a comprehensive update early on Wednesday morning.