In brief: As we have been forecasting for days now about Sunday, it is a very close call out there for freezing precipitation in Houston this morning. Temperatures are falling to just about to the freezing level as a line of showers moves through, and accordingly we are seeing everything at the moment: rain, freezing rain, sleet, eve a little snow. Impacts are to be determined.

Winter storm status

Houston is now receiving its second, and final round of precipitation with this winter event. The precipitation is continuing as temperatures fall to around the freezing level in the city, and it is leading to varying levels of impacts on roadways. Fortunately, much of the precipitation this morning has fallen as rainfall or sleet, and this has spared us from power-line impacts due to ice accumulations. As of 6 am CT only a few thousand CenterPoint customers are without power.

We strongly urge caution with using area roadways this morning. Some areas north and west of Houston are ice bound, and there are reports of ice on several Houston area freeways. I would treat all overpasses and ramps as suspect as well, with the potential for icy patches. However, with air temperatures still in the 31 to 34 degree range, roads in the city are not freezing quickly. Many are still wet rather than icy.

Sunday forecast

The showers (and a few thunderstorms) should exit the region to our east by around 8 am. And that will likely be the end of the precipitation. After this we are going to see gusty winds from the north, perhaps as high as 30 mph this afternoon as Arctic air surges into the region. We may also see some sporadic sunshine. Temperatures today are unlikely to rise much above freezing. Areas along and south of Highway 59/Interstate 69 may reach the mid-30s for a few hours this afternoon, but areas such as Katy, Cypress, and Kingwood may max out at about 30 degrees this afternoon.

All of this raises difficult to answer questions about the state of roads later today. On one hand, the precipitation ends, and strong winds will have a drying effect on roads. However, the colder temperatures this afternoon, especially for inland areas, will lock any ice into place. We will know more in a few hours, but at this point my expectation is for icy patches on roadways, with issues on bridges and overpasses. However, we are now unlikely to see a widespread ice storm, which should be favorable for impacts later today and on Monday morning. Let’s see what happens over the next few hours. Again, if you can stay home this morning it is highly advisable, because as temperatures fall this morning water on roads can freeze.

With mostly cloudy skies we should see low temperatures tonight drop into the 20 to 25 degree range in Houston. Ongoing northerly winds at 15 mph, with higher gusts, will add additional chill to the air. Please protect pets from this very cold weather tonight.

Monday

We should see clearing skies on Monday, but temperatures will be slow to warm with the ongoing advection of cold air into the region. By around noon, or shortly after, we should see temperatures rise above freezing for a few hours, reaching 35 to possibly 40 degrees for much of the region. Lows on Monday night will be similar to Sunday night, still very cold, but with clear skies and lighter winds.

Tuesday and beyond

By Tuesday we’ll be comfortably in the 40s for high temperatures, and then the 50s through Friday. After this time another Arctic front may be in the cards next weekend, although it’s not yet clear whether it will be as cold as this air mass (probably not?) or as impactful in terms of wintry precipitation. We shall see.

Our next post will come by around 2 pm CT this afternoon, when we will take a closer look at roads and electricity production statewide for a very cold night across Texas.

In brief: The forecast for Houston remains on track overnight, as freezing temperatures enter the western fringe of Greater Houston. We expect periods of rain, freezing rain, and sleet overnight with falling temperatures and isolated thunder. Roads will likely be sloppy in spots, especially north and west of Houston. We encourage folks to heed the advice of local officials and stay off the roads tomorrow, at least until they can be evaluated and assessed.

Good evening everyone. I just want to shout out Eric for doing virtually everything himself this week, as I have been quite active with preparations for this storm. Winter storms are always challenging to forecast, and this one has been no different. But we’re almost into primetime now, so let’s look at where we stand heading into the overnight.

Temperatures

Generally, the entire Houston Metro area remains above freezing as of 10:45 this evening. Outlying areas west of the city are dropping below freezing now, particularly near Sealy, Bellville, Navasota as examples.

Temperatures will continue to drop, with the freezing line probably entering the western Metro area around 1 AM or so, the I-45 corridor north of I-10 around 3-4 AM, and the Inner Loop by 7 AM. Note that the freezing line will push farther south than it will east faster, so places like Bay City and Wharton will drop below freezing before places like Humble as an example.

Then on Sunday, expect temperatures to hold near freezing all day from Houston north and west and probably around 32 to 34 degrees south and east.

Freezing rain & sleet

The area has been in a lull this evening with sprinkles, drizzle, fog, mist, a couple showers, but nothing else really. That will change over the next few hours. Expect showers to become more numerous in the area with a period of moderate to heavy precipitation arriving in the Houston area between 1 and 6 AM. It won’t be precipitating heavily during that entire time, but there will be areas that see moderate rain and freezing rain or even moderate sleet as well.

The heaviest of the precipitation will thankfully pass to our north. However, it will be this area of rain or freezing rain or sleet that begins to cause problems on area roadways. This will be especially true north and west of Houston. I think most places are going to see around 0.10 of ice or perhaps a bit less, especially if sleet overtakes freezing rain as the dominant form of precipitation. There will likely be patches in northern Wharton, Austin, Waller, Fort Bend, western Harris, Montgomery, Walker, Grimes, and Washington Counties that see perhaps 0.1 to 0.2 inches of ice. At those levels, we’ll almost certainly see very slick bridges and overpasses, as well as freeway flyovers. Surface streets will take a little longer to freeze, but I would expect patchy black ice on area roads late tonight and Sunday morning.

In addition to the precipitation, there will likely be at least a few lightning strikes overnight. With a wicked temperature inversion (temperatures warming with altitude), some of that thunder may be extra loud. I don’t think the excitable dog index gets much higher than a 2 or 3 out of 10 due to mostly isolated strikes.

The message we’ve been echoing from our local elected officials and emergency management agencies is that we strongly advise you stay off the roads overnight and on Sunday morning. Let officials check the situation out in the morning. If it’s not as bad as feared, wonderful. But if it’s a slopfest, we need to keep those roads wide open for first responders who also will need to slow down and drive carefully. Stay safe.

Other notes

Winds will be blustery on Sunday. Expect gusts of 20 to 25 mph creating wind chills in the teens, especially in the afternoon. I am not optimistic that we’re going to see much sunshine tomorrow. In fact, the cloud cover may linger into tomorrow night helping keep temperatures milder than forecast, likely in the mid-20s in most of the metro area. We should see the sun return by Monday afternoon. With clearer skies, it’s plausible that Tuesday morning will actually be colder than Monday in Houston, not by a ton but at least a little bit. You’ll want to maximize your cold weather protections through Tuesday.

Eric will be up early on Sunday to give you an update on the latest. Stay safe, and stay warm!

In brief: The forecast for our winter storm is coming into clearer focus this afternoon, and we now anticipate fairly widespread ice impacts on Sunday, which may extend into Monday. There is also the potential for thunderstorms (and thundersleet!) before the precipitation ends on Sunday. It’s all happening in winter storm 2026 Houston.

What to expect, and when

For this afternoon’s post we are going to break things down into what people should expect, and when. Houston will face a mix of winter-inspired threats over the next two days, everything from thundersleet—yes, it’s a real thing—to ice on roads. The bottom line is that we all need to have a little patience over the next 24 to 48 hours until Mother Nature sorts its issues out.

Tonight

We’re already seeing temperatures falling into the upper 30s north of Houston, and this downward trend will continue. Freezing temperatures will arrive in places like Katy and The Woodlands around midnight tonight, and should move into much of the rest of the metro area (barring the coast) by sunrise on Sunday. During these overnight hours cold rain will transition to freezing rain and, in some cases, sleet. There is also the potential for some thunderstorms, in which case we might get a rare thundersleet sighting, in which sleet falls during a thunderstorm. In locations where sleet falls (which is preferable to freezing rain) there will be less ice buildup on streets. In any case, when you wake up Sunday morning we’re going to see a different world.

My baseline expectation is for 0.1 to 0.25 inch of ice accumulation along and inland of Highway 59/Interstate 69. As for areas south of this, and closer to the coast, we can probably expect a trace of ice perhaps up to 0.1 inch. The bottom line is that roads will potentially be hazardous anywhere but the immediate coast. Our best advice is to plan to stay home on Sunday, and limit any travel to emergencies only. Even if you are the world’s best ice road trucker, chances are your fellow drivers are not. For good real-time information about ice on Houston’s roadways, be sure to check Houston Transtar’s road incident page.

Sunday

It will be interesting to see how high temperatures get on Sunday. Parts of the area (again, most likely locations along and south of Highway 59) will probably get above freezing for a few hours on Sunday afternoon. This, in concert with gusty northerly winds, and potentially a some patches of sunny skies, may do some work on drying out roads. But then again, maybe not. And for areas further inland I’m just not confident in ice melting at all. I mean, it could happen. But if there’s enough ice, it will take longer than an hour or two of 35 degrees to take care of it. Temperatures will plunge back below freezing by 5 or 6 pm CT on Sunday, and we’ll be in for a cold night. However, the likelihood of clouds on Sunday night may take some of the edge off of low temperatures. I expect lows to remain in the vicinity of 20 to 25 degrees in urban Houston, with areas west (i.e. Katy) and north (The Woodlands) potentially dropping into the upper teens.

Monday

We’ve had the road discussion already, but I think freeways and local streets on Monday will be a mixed bag. Coastal areas probably will be OK. Areas further inland, probably not? I’m just not sure how well, or to what extent, our regional ice treatment services will do. I could see things being passable near downtown Houston and the Texas Medical Center, but I really want to see where we are on Sunday afternoon before making a definitive call. Anyway, we start out very cold on Monday, but with sunny skies I’m hopeful that most of the region gets to highs of 35 to 40 degrees. I think this, in concert with sunshine, should do work on icy roads. But again, I’m not 100 percent confident in that. Anyway, lows on Monday night (with clear skies) could be a degree or two colder than Sunday night.

Tuesday

If you’re wondering when you can stop worrying about this deep freeze, the answer is late Tuesday morning. By then temperatures will be recovering into the 40s.

Eric, what about the next Arctic front?

Yeah, we are probably going to see another cooldown next weekend. I think there’s a decent chance of a light freeze, and although we can’t rule out a hard freeze the signal for extreme cold is not nearly so strong as it was for the current event. There is also a signal for some snow, but we’re not going to make any promises to the kids just yet.

We will have one more update today, likely late this evening, by or before 11 pm to share our latest thinking on the forecast.