In brief: Today’s post explains why boring and calm weather in August is the perfect ideal for Houston. This will never be a month for nice weather. But it is often a month for nasty weather. Fortunately, this year, we’re not seeing that. (So far).
August doldrums
A lot of terrible, awful, no good weather can happen in August along the upper Texas coast. Historically this is when we have seen our most terrible heat. I think about the summer of 2023, when the average daily high temperature for August was 103 degrees. This is the month when we often seen our most entrenched high pressure systems and deepest droughts. Conversely, August and September are when the region is most vulnerable to powerful hurricanes. So we can see not just droughts but flooding rains. We often go from drought to flash flooding in a matter of minutes due to the nature of tropical rainfall. Fun times.
After a dry and extremely hot August 2023, the majority of the greater Houston region fell into an ‘exceptional’ drought. (NOAA)
So when I look ahead to our forecast over the next 10 days and see highs generally in the low- to mid-90s, with enough of a splash of rain—but not too much, mind you—to keep the drought at bay, I’m happy. It may be boring to forecast. It may mean no one is reading about, or really cares about the weather. But boring weather in August beats almost any conceivable alternative. So I say, with pride, that today’s forecast post is boring.
Thursday and Friday
The end of the work week will bring some of our warmest weather. Daytime highs will push into the mid- to upper-90s (for inland areas), with mostly sunny skies. We will see some showers offshore during the morning hours, and I expect these to develop over land later this morning and during the afternoon with daytime heating. Generally I expect about 10 percent of the region to see moderate to heavy rains, another 20 percent or so to see light rain, and then the rest of us nothing. So these will be very much hit or miss rains. Winds will be light, generally from the southeast. Overnight lows are very warm and muggy.
Boring and predictable weather in August is a blessing. (Weather Bell)
Saturday and Sunday
As the high pressure system over the Southwestern United States retreats a little bit this weekend, we will see slightly increased rain chances. Overall daily coverage will be about 40 percent, and again these should be very much hit or miss showers, with a few isolated pockets of heavy rain, and most areas seeing much less. A few more clouds should help limit high temperatures this weekend to the low- to mid-90s. Which, for the deepest dog days of summer, is not half bad.
Next week
This pattern of boring weather: highs generally in the mid-90s, low-end daily rain chances, and plenty of humidity, should continue for the majority of next week. It’s not glamorous, but for me in August, in Houston, every day is one of survive and advance toward fall. And we’re getting there folks.
Hey all—my name’s Lee, and I run the server side of Space City Weather (and The Eyewall, too!). Today we’re changing how comments work on both sites.
We’re moving from WordPress’ built-in commenting system to a new discussion platform called Discourse. The goal is to make it easier for us to moderate conversations, highlight thoughtful contributions, and cut down on off-topic noise. (For the longer version, see the “Start here: What is all this?! Answers within!” post on our new Discourse instance.)
Discourse!
What does this mean for everyone?
Starting today, instead of leaving comments directly beneath posts on SCW and The Eyewall, readers will follow a link to a dedicated discussion thread on our new Discourse forum. That thread will serve as the home for all conversation related to that day’s forecast post. The most recent replies from the thread—right now we’re showing 20, but that number might change—will automatically appear at the bottom of the forecast post, in the same place comments have always lived.
If you want to comment, follow the link down below that says either “Start the discussion…” or “Continue the discussion…”, which will take you directly to the daily post’s discussion thread. If you haven’t created an account yet, you’ll be prompted to sign up. Once you’re signed in, you can comment as usual!
It’s still early days here and we’ll be continually tuning how Discourse integrates with Space City Weather and The Eyewall. Some things might be slightly broken at first, but we’ll do our best to stomp on any issues as soon as they’re spotted. Voice any concerns in the Forum Feedback category on Discourse, and we’ll look into them.
Thanks for sticking with us, and whether you’re a newcomer or someone who’s been around long enough to know exactly when Katy should evacuate, welcome to the new commenting system!
In brief: This post discusses our relatively mild start to the month of August, which is a nice change from some of our recent summers. And really the forecast does not offer much variability, with highs likely in the low- to mid-90s for awhile with a splash of daily rain chances.
It could be worse
The average high temperature during the sizzling first week of August, 2023, was 102 degrees Fahrenheit. (I felt a shudder as I wrote that). Last year it was 97.5 degrees. This year, so far, we’re running at 93.8 degrees. This is not exceptionally cool, but it is a little bit below the normal high for this time of year (96 degrees). As Matt has noted the moderate daytime temperatures we’ve been seeing this summer have been offset by extremely warm nights, but nevertheless it sure feels nice to go through what is typically the hottest time of the year and have days that aren’t at or near record high temperatures.
And I don’t want to jinx anything, but it looks like we should remain solidly in the low- to mid-90s through at least the middle of the month as high pressure appears unlikely to build directly over the region anytime soon.
Wet bulb globe temperatures indicate “high” heat for the coming week, but this is typical for August. (Weather Bell)
Wednesday
We remain on the edge of a very potent high pressure system anchored over the Southwestern United States, and that will continue to bring warm, mostly sunny days with a low-end chance of showers and thunderstorms. With this pattern we should continue to see high temperatures in the mid-90s for areas along and north of Interstate 10, and lower 90s for areas closer to the coast. Rain chances will be on the order of about 30 percent daily, with totals probably at the higher end toward the coast, and lower further inland. Humidity remains high, with light southeasterly winds. Nighttime temperatures will struggle to fall much below 80 degrees.
Thursday and Friday
These days will see a similar pattern, although daytime highs should be 1 or 2 degrees warmer, with some inland areas potentially reaching the upper 90s. A chance of showers is possible during the afternoon along the sea breeze.
Saturday and Sunday
The song remains the same heading into the weekend, although daily rain chances may nudge up to 40 or even 50 percent closer to the coast. These showers are unlikely to last too long, and for most locations will only bring a tenth of an inch of rain or two. For the most part skies should be sunny, with high temperatures in the low- to mid-90s.
Next week
Honestly, at this point not much change appears to be in the forecast for next week. If we’re getting through August with temperatures in the low- to mid-90s and the occasional shower to keep things green, then we’re doing August in Houston about as good as one can.
Tropical outlook for Wednesday morning. (National Hurricane Center)
Tropics
Dexter remains a weak tropical storm that is moving away from land, so no concerns there. Two other systems have a chance to develop, and one of them may bring increased rain chances to the southeastern United States over the next week. The Gulf looks clear for now, but we’re just about to begin a pattern of tropical systems forming in the “main development region” of the tropical Atlantic, and these will have a better chance of moving westward toward the Gulf, and potentially entering the body of water on our doorstep. Nothing is imminent, however. We’re just getting close to that time of year.
Once again, you’ve asked and we’re answering. Here’s our latest Q&A. Got questions of your own? Hit the Contact link at the top of the blog, or leave a question here in the comments. We’ll consider it for next time.
Q: I’m not complaining at all, but it seems like this summer has been cooler than usual? I know we’ve had a lot of rain and maybe that’s kept things cooled off but is something bigger going on? Is there an overlying thing in the atmosphere that’s made June and July less than hellish?
A: Good question! We’ve actually already answered it because we felt the same thing! So, ok. Let’s look at this again with July now in the record books. Through the end of July it was officially the 7th hottest summer to date on record in Houston dating back to the late 1800s.
June & July 2025 came in at #7 on the top list of hottest summers to date. (NOAA)
These temperatures are taken at Bush Airport, which about 20 percent of our audience thinks is complete blasphemy, another issue we addressed. And while Bush does have problems from a representation of Houston, when comparing to prior history at that specific location, it suffices. But, for those who would rather look at the data elsewhere as comparison, let’s do just that. At Hobby, it was the 15th hottest June & July on record back to 1931. In Galveston it was 4th hottest. College Station? 25th hottest. Corpus Christi was 9th. Beaumont was 44th! So, suffice to say there’s been variability across Southeast Texas. Was this really the 7th hottest start to summer “for Houston?” Officially, yes. In reality, probably not quite.
But it really depends on exactly where you are. And this gets to the reader’s mention of “a lot of rain.” Bush saw 9.46″ of rain in June and July, much less than last year of course, thanks especially to Hurricane Beryl. But if you took Beryl out of the equation it’s been a couple summers since we’ve had this routine amount of showers and storms. Hobby has had about 4 inches more rain this summer. Galveston has had far less, with about 4.5 inches officially. So it seems like the rankings of “hottest” are better correlated to rainfall than anything else. If you’ve seen more persistent daily storms in the Houston area, it’s been a good summer. If you haven’t, it hasn’t been horrible like 2022 and 2023, but it’s been a little hotter.
One thing I will note, that we’re basing this on average temperatures. When you look at nighttime lows, we’ve had more mornings at or above 78° this summer than in any prior summer in Houston. This persistence of warm nighttime lows is making a large impact on our overall average. This is for a number of reasons: A warming Gulf, urban sprawl and expanding heat island, and climate change. It’s just easier to have hot summers in Houston now than it used to be, even if the daytimes aren’t as bad as we’ve dealt with before.
– Matt
Q. Seems like we’ve had several low pressure systems near us (near shore) in the Gulf that IMO has really helped us with rainfall since June. Any chance these little low systems have pulled energy out of the Gulf that would keep something bigger from happening the next month or so?
A. The short answer is no, sorry. For two reasons.
First of all, it takes a stronger storm, preferably a hurricane, to really churn up lots of colder water from below toward the surface. This raising of colder water can produce a lingering effect on sea surface temperatures that reduces the energy available for subsequent storms to intensify. None of the weak systems we’ve seen to date have really been potent enough to have this effect.
Second, the effect is temporary, usually lasting on the order of two to four weeks. So even if the June tropical systems had a significant cooling impact on seas (which they really didn’t), it would be long gone.
Speaking of Gulf sea surface temperatures, they are plenty warm. The vast majority of the Gulf lies at 30 degrees Celsius or higher, rather far above the threshold (roughly 26.5 degrees C) needed to support tropical system intensification. Buckle up!
– Eric
Q: Matt, I know you have written about cuts to NOAA and NWS, and you’ve said the forecasting and warning around the Hill Country tragedy was not affected. But is there anything now you can point to and say, “That happened because of these cuts”?
A: I stand by my initial assessment. I don’t believe the cuts, as implemented thus far played much if any role in this disaster. As we’re learning from the state legislature’s special session, it appears there’s a fundamental problem with emergency response to significant weather in Kerr County in particular. While the NWS San Antonio office was without a warning coordination meteorologist at the time of the flood, the relationship building that occurs to help mitigate the toll from this sort of event occurs over a long period of time. Could it have helped here? Maybe a little? No one knows for sure. Would it have prevented it? No. I feel strongly that this was sort of a terrible situation, wrong place, wrong time, wrong leadership type of situation. Hopefully there are lessons learned from this.
The caution here, of course, is that the cuts that have been proposed to NOAA in the administration’s budget would be catastrophic to NWS and increase the risk profile across the board for events of this and lesser magnitudes. It made absolutely zero sense from a public safety standpoint. Thankfully, both legislative branches are playing the roles of grown-ups in the room and have come back and said those cuts aren’t happening. What this looks like in the end remains to be seen. But to this point, what is being said by Congress is actually net positive for NOAA and NWS and the country at large.
As far as other significant weather events and the current budget cuts, we have not noticed other cases where we can say with authority that the cuts have played a detrimental role in outcomes or forecasts. There was the instance of tornadoes earlier this year in Kentucky immediately after the Jackson, KY, office announced they’d stop staffing 24/7 due to the lack of staff. But the office was open and operational that night. The outcome was suboptimal, and the cuts may have played a role there — but like a lot of things, we can’t exactly prove it outright.
Same goes for the lack of weather balloons. On at least 2 or 3 occasions this year in forecasting for both the Houston area and for my day job in the Midwest, I have noticed a couple “surprise” outcomes that I strongly suspect are tied to the lack of upper air data provided by weather balloons that has been inconsistent from parts of the Rockies and Plains. But again, that’s speculation to some extent. We know for a fact that these are bad decisions, but proving what role they’ve played in any one event is difficult to do.
– Matt
Q. I was looking at my records and thought “hmm, haven’t done my annual contribution to SCW yet, let’s find a link on their website”. But no, couldn’t find one. Are donations only while you’re having your annual thing, or did I miss something?
A. You’re very kind to ask this. We hold an annual fundraiser over the course of three weeks in November. During this time period people can donate money to support the site and buy merchandise for the holiday season. Speaking of which, do you have any ideas for a t-shirt design this year? We want to do something fun for our 10th anniversary.
Why only November? We don’t have a year-round fundraiser because I don’t want the site to be seen as trying to capitalize during inclement weather events. In November, things are usually fairly calm, so there’s no pressure on people to support us.
– Eric
Q. Your app keeps crashing. What’s happening? I thought you fixed it!
A. Sigh. So did we!
When last we left our cute little weather app, we had released a new version that fixed the longstanding issue preventing notifications on Apple devices. As we wrote in June, it took a while to get this done because Hussain Abbasi, our developer, needed to switch to a new coding platform – something he wasn’t planning to do until next year but Microsoft dropped support for it.
The notification problem was indeed solved, but as is often the case when you’re making a change as major as this, other bugs were introduced. After the new version had been out for a while, we began to get reports of crashes when the app launched. Hussain found the issue, having to do with how the locations in the city-picker drawer get sorted. A updated release with a fix for that is imminent – hang in there! (In the interim, deleting and redownloading from the App Store seems to solve the problem.)
See the list of cities you can choose on the left? That’s the cause of our latest iOS crash bug.
Meanwhile, he’s still in the process of getting the Android version working as it should via the new coding platform. Building Android apps can be more difficult because there are so many different hardware types and designs out there. In this case, you can blame folding Android devices for the delay – switching between tablet and phone layouts is creating, as he puts it, “inconsistencies.” (And there’s supposedly a folding iPhone coming next year. Yay?) Once we get an Android update out the door, it should also fix the issue of crashes on some Google Pixel phones.
It’s like playing whack-a-mole. Whack-a-bug!
Remember that you can send a bug report via the app. First make sure you’ve downloaded the latest version. Then tap the three-line icon next to the city name on the home page; tap the gear icon on the top right of the drawer that appears; tap the “Send Feedback” item. It sends a log with details on the crash to our developer, but it would help if you could provide as much detail as you can about what happened. (Details about your device are automatically sent.)
Does the app crash on launch so you can’t get to the Feedback button? Send as detailed a report as you can, including the device model and its operating system version, to [email protected].
And once again, just to be very clear: The spelling of Houmidity in the app is a feature, not a bug.
We appreciate your patience as Hussain works through these issues.
