In brief: In today’s post we discuss lower rain chances for the rest of the work week, before an uptick this weekend. Also, we take a deeper look at an updated forecast for the remainder of the Atlantic hurricane season, which has had a sneakily impactful start.

2025 Atlantic hurricane season

So far this Atlantic hurricane season has been a non-event for the greater Houston area. However two of the storms that have developed this season have created significant impacts elsewhere. Most everyone reading this is familiar with the catastrophic flooding in the Texas Hill Country last weekend. This was driven by the remnants of Tropical Storm Barry, which made landfall near Tampico, Mexico and then wandered around before stalling over Texas. Then, Tropical Storm Chantal made landfall in South Carolina on July 6, and brought record flooding to parts of North Carolina a few days ago.

Therefore, while we have not had any hurricanes yet (which is normal) this has been an impactful season overall so far. On Wednesday forecasters at Colorado State University released an updated forecast for the 2025 season, and they slightly lowered their total of named storms (17 to 16) and hurricanes (9 to 8) as part of this update. “The primary reason for the slight decrease in the outlook is both observed and predicted high levels of Caribbean shear,” the forecasters stated. “High levels of Caribbean shear in June/July are typically associated with less active hurricane seasons.”

While this ostensibly good news, we have already seen in the last 10 days that even relatively weak tropical systems can cause significant problems, both in terms of damage and loss of life. And given the overall accuracy of seasonal forecasts, a slight modification like this is more or less “in the noise.” The reality is that, for Houston, prime time for hurricane season will come in August and September, so we are still in the very early innings.

Thursday and Friday

Unlike the last couple of days, we are not seeing much shower activity offshore this morning. That’s partly because the level of moisture in the atmosphere is a little bit lower. This should lead to fewer clouds today and Friday, along with less coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Overall rain chances are probably about 30 percent. However, where there is rain it could be briefly intense, as there is still the potential for isolated strong storms. Because we will see more sunshine, the Houston area can expect temperatures to rise into the low- to mid-90s, so a little bit warmer than the last couple of days. Winds will be from the south, and may be a bit gusty on Friday afternoon.

Saturday and Sunday

Slightly higher moisture levels, in addition to a more supportive atmosphere, will lead to increased rain chances this weekend. I’d put them at about 60 percent for both days. Overall accumulations for most locations will probably be in the low tenths of an inch, but we could see a few bullseyes of 1 inch or more. With a few more clouds we can probably expect high temperatures for most locations to top out in the lower 90s, but it will still be plenty humid with muggy nights.

Next week

Some rain chances will probably linger into early next week, but then I expect mostly sunny conditions for most of next week. High temperatures in the mid- to upper-90s are likely, but I would not lock them in quite yet. Regardless, I do think it’s going to feel close to full-on summer out there for Houston so steel thyselves.

In brief: Houston will likely face additional showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday, with hit-or-miss coverage similar to what the region experienced on Tuesday. Looking ahead to the weekend, there is more rain in the forecast, although we don’t expect excessive totals.

Unsettled pattern continues

Houston’s weather will remain unsettled for a few more days as the region lies beyond the influence of high pressure. On Tuesday the region saw widely variable rainfall totals, with some areas near Sugar Land picking up in excess of 4 inches, whereas most of Houston received less than 0.5 inch. I expect another similarly active day today before things quiet down a bit, perhaps, ahead of the weekend. Speaking of which, after a couple of days of dithering about that forecast, it now appears that high moisture levels will drive a healthy chance of showers on both Saturday and Sunday.

Wednesday

Today will be quite similar to Tuesday in that we see the development of showers and thunderstorms near the coast this morning (there is already activity offshore) that will spread inland today, through the afternoon and early evening hours before waning. Most of the region should pick up less than 0.5 inch, but there will be some locations that see in excess of that, and this may cause brief ponding on roadways. The upside of the clouds and rain is that temperatures will remain a bit lower than normal, with highs today likely to only reach about 90 degrees for most locations. Lows tonight should drop into the mid-70s.

Thursday and Friday

As a slug of slightly drier air moves into the region, we should see rain chances step back into the range of 30 to 40 percent daily, with a little bit more sunshine. This should allow high temperatures to reach the lower 90s for a couple of days. (The normal high for this time of year, in Houston, is 94 degrees). Friday may also be a bit windy, with southerly gusts perhaps reaching 20 mph. This is only notable because our winds have been fairly calm of late.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend should see an increase in atmospheric moisture levels, and this will likely bring back better rain chances into the area. I’m not seeing any signal for widespread heavy rainfall, but both days should see a 60 percent chance (or so) of light to moderate showers. With the possibility of thunderstorms you should definitely have a backup plan for any outdoor activities. These showers and clouds should limit high temperatures to around 90 degrees. Overnight lows will be in the mid-70s.

Next week

At some point next week we should see high temperatures start to increase, probably into the mid-90s. Rain chances, also, should start to diminish. But I’m not ready to lock in such a forecast just yet.

In brief: Houston’s pattern will continue to bring a chance of daily showers. For the next two days, in particular, much of the region should see rain and a bit cooler temperatures. We should get back into the mid-90s later this week, and into the weekend. So basically, it will feel like July in July.

A year since Beryl

Conditions are quite a bit nicer this morning than they were one year ago today, when Hurricane Beryl made landfall down the coast from Houston. At this time we were seeing maximum winds across the region, with gusts above hurricane force strength affecting much of the area. This caused significant tree damage and knocked power out to millions in the region. So it is not a particularly happy memory for most of us.

Tuesday

A couple of factors will support ongoing, healthy rain chances across the Houston region this week. These conditions, the combination of lower pressure and lots of moisture in the atmosphere, should be especially pronounced today and Wednesday. As a result we should see the development of fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms.

As usual, these showers will be hit or miss. They will start out closer to the coast later this morning, and then spread inland throughout the afternoon and early evening before waning after sunset. Some locations may pick up 1 inch of rain under stronger storms, whereas as other locations will only see light rain or dark skies. You’ve seen this story before in Houston. Most locations, on average, should pick up a few tenths of an inch of rain by the end of Wednesday.

Partly to mostly cloudy skies this afternoon, in addition to rain-cooled air, should help to limit high temperatures to the lower 90s. Winds, generally, will be light at 5 to 10 mph except within stronger thunderstorms. Lows tonight will drop into the mid-70s for most locations.

Wednesday

This will be a similar day to Tuesday, with rain chances above 50 percent. Again we can expect a few thunderstorms, but mostly I think these will be light to moderate showers. Highs, again, will be in the lower 90s.

Thursday and Friday

The second half of the week should bring somewhat lower rain chances, but they still should be somewhere in the 30 to 50 percent range. Accumulations will be less for most locations. Accordingly, daytime highs will be a little bit warmer, in the mid-90s for most locations. This is plenty hot, but also pretty much par for the course in mid-July.

Saturday and Sunday

Unfortunately I still do not have a great handle on the outlook for this weekend. It depends on the extent to which high pressure can build up over the area, and there is no agreement in the various models I am looking at. My sense is that we’ll see highs in the mid-90s, with a decent (i.e. maybe 30 percent) chance of light to moderate showers each day. Hopefully in another day, or so, the forecast will come into better focus.

Next week

Overall next week looks a little bit warmer, with high temperatures in the mid-90s, and possibly some areas sneaking into the upper 90s. I think rain chances may step back a little bit, compared to this week at least, but I’m not sure the spigot will be entirely shut off. Basically, July will continue to do July things, probably.

In brief: In today’s post we reflect on the horrors of the flooding in Central Texas on the Fourth of July. With our local forecast, we are going to see the return of fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms for a few days this week before coverage probably wanes some heading into the weekend.

Some Central Texas thoughts

Like so many of you, Matt and I watched the flooding tragedy unfold in Central Texas over the holiday weekend in horror. At last count more than 80 people have died, including some young people from Houston at Camp Mystic. As a father of two daughters, the single greatest fear in my life is that something serious happens to one of my kids. I cannot imagine the grief and anger and sadness and other incredibly strong emotions that affected family members are now feeling. You have our love and sympathy.

Matt wrote about the meteorology behind this historic flooding over on The Eyewall this weekend. The basic story is that the remnants of Tropical Storm Barry stalled over Central Texas, setting the stage for heavy rainfall not dissimilar to what the Houston region experienced during Hurricane Harvey nearly eight years ago. The rains were not as long-lasting, as Central Texas is further from the Gulf and an efficient source of moisture. But the rain was extreme, and rapidly led to catastrophic flooding.

Overall we don’t believe the recent cuts to the National Weather Service by the Trump Administration—which are concerning for multiple reasons, and will negatively impact forecasting—played a significant role in warnings issued for this storm. The relevant offices of the weather service were reasonably well staffed, and they issued warnings in a timely manner. Yes, the overall rain totals in parts of Kerr County over-performed expectations, but flash flood warnings were in place for the region.

I think a major part of the problem is that these floods developed after midnight on a major holiday. Additionally, the most affected areas were largely remote, with some places lacking even a cell phone signal. So although there were flash flood warnings in place when the waters began rising, they were not seen or, in some cases heeded. That is not to say the forecasts were perfect. In an ideal world residents in these areas would have had days of warnings, rather than hours, but this is not always the case in extreme weather. For example, Harvey’s flooding was relatively well forecast in Houston before landfall, but the derecho in May 2024 was not well predicted. Meteorologists are not perfect, and neither are our forecasts.

A couple of readers have said they were disappointed that Space City Weather did not sound the warning on these storms. I hear you, but I would like to say a couple of things. Firstly, Kerrville and areas surrounding it lie very far outside of our forecast area. They are 250 miles from Houston, and our focus is this metro area and surrounding counties. We are intensely local. If this were an Austin- or San Antonio-based site, it would be a completely different story.

Second, when I looked at all of this on Thursday morning, the forecast for heavy rainfall did not look overly extreme in Central Texas. Some bad rains, certainly. But not what ultimately transpired. If we had really known what was was about to happen early on the Fourth of July, if we could have saved lives amid this awful natural disaster, we would have shouted it from the rooftops, even if it was far away in Texas. The reality is we did not. I dearly wish it were otherwise.

Monday

After largely rain-free conditions across the region this weekend in Houston, the atmosphere above our area will become more favorable to showers and thunderstorms for the next several days. In the absence of high pressure, with the region open to the Gulf, rain chances will be on the order of 50 percent or higher on Monday, and likely for much of the coming week. Chances will peak during the late morning and afternoon hours as showers and thunderstorms spread inland. These storms will definitely be hit or miss, but where they “hit” they could quickly produce on the order 1 inch of rain or more. High temperatures will be in the low- to mid-90s, with lows in the upper 70s.

Tuesday and Wednesday

Rains likely peak on Tuesday and Wednesday, with chances of 60 percent or higher for most of the area. Again we expect some pockets of heavier rainfall in which 1 to 2 inches may fall, whereas the vast majority of Houston will probably see less. Daily shower chances will help to corral high temperatures in the lower 90s for much of Houston. Although we don’t anticipate significant flooding, we are going to be watching this setup closely.

Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

There is not yet a clear signal for when high pressure will return in force for the greater Houston region. It may happen as early as Friday or Saturday, or it may not be until some time next week. As a result the forecast for this weekend is kind of fudged. Generally we can probably expect high temperatures in the mid-90s. Let’s go ahead and ballpark a 30 percent chance of daily rain showers, but if you asked me how confident I felt in that I would say not very. We’ll likely have to adjust that number upward or downward as we get closer to the coming weekend.

Atlantic tropics

Tropical Storm Chantal has weakened to become a depression over the eastern United States, and is on its way to dissipating. Beyond this, the tropics are quiet. With another large plume of Saharan dust moving off of Africa, I think it’s most likely that tropical activity remains low over the next week or so. In any case there’s nothing I’m watching that is giving me too much concern.