Good morning. The Houston region faces three more warm days before a significant change in our pattern brings improved rain chances and colder air. We’re not looking at very dry air and sharply cold nights, as the region experienced a week ago. But rather we’re going to see mostly cloudy weather for awhile, with days in the 60s, lows in the 50s, and healthy rain chances. We’ll begin to warm back up by Wednesday or Thursday of next week.

Tuesday

Before that we’re going to see some more weather in the mid-80s, with humid air. Highs today will generally be in the mid-80s, with mostly sunny skies, and southerly winds at 5 to 15 mph. Low temperatures tonight may briefly drop into the upper 60s in Houston, but there won’t be much (if any) chill in the air. There is perhaps a 10 percent chance of very light showers.

Wednesday

Did you like Tuesday’s weather? Good. Because Wednesday is going to be basically the same.

Thursday

This day will begin similarly to Tuesday and Wednesday, but change will quite literally be in the air. High temperatures probably will be a couple of degrees cooler due to some more cloud cover. Some slight rain chances will start to pick up during the afternoon and evening hours, ahead of, and along with a front moving into the region. The front probably will push into Houston during the overnight hours and off the coast by Friday morning.

Friday

This will be a gray and cooler day, with highs in the 60s. So it won’t be super cold, but it will be chilly with on and off precipitation. In terms of accumulations, I’m still not confident, but I would bet that most of the area picks up between 0.5 and 1.5 inches of rain, with the usual possibility of outliers. So at this point I don’t really have flooding concerns. Accumulations will likely be higher to the west of Houston than to the east. Lows on Friday night will drop into the 50s.

Saturday and Sunday

My confidence in the weekend forecast also remains fairly low. There could be a break in showers on Saturday, Veteran’s Day, for inland areas away from the coast. The challenge for the forecast is that the front and its associated moisture are unlikely to push all that far into the Gulf of Mexico, so we’re going to see the potential for lingering showers this weekend, and next week. The bottom line is that we’re looking at a pair of cloudy days in the 60s this weekend, with a healthy chance of light to moderate rainfall each day. At this point I’d say Sunday has a slightly better chance of rain than Saturday. We’ll see.

Next week

This gray and wet pattern will persist into early next week, likely at least Monday and possibly Tuesday. So that means more partly to mostly cloudy skies and ongoing highs in the 60s or so. Total rainfall accumulations (see map above) are going to add up over the the next week, likely with 1 to 4 inches for most of the metro area.

We’re probably going to transition to a somewhat sunnier and warmer pattern for the second half of the week. Think highs in the 70s, with lower rain chances. This warming trend will continue into next weekend, at which point another front is likely in the cards. But whether that comes on Saturday, Sunday, or Monday, I cannot say.

Good morning. We may be noticing it less because the temperatures are cooler, but a significant chunk of the Houston region remains mired in a severe drought. Moreover, parts of Fort Bend County are in an extreme drought. And just a little but farther, to the east in places like Beaumont, an exceptional drought continues to rage. Fortunately some relief is on the way this week, as the passage of a cool front on Thursday and Friday should bring a solid amount of rain with it—although frustratingly the totals are likely to be on the lesser end in the Beaumont-Port Arthur area.

Monday

Before the front arrives we’re going to see warm and humid days, but nothing too excessive. Highs today will reach the low 80s with partly sunny skies. The air will be humid, but not oppressively so. Winds will be light, out of the south, but there may be a few gusts this afternoon. Clouds will build this evening, and temperatures are likely to only drop into the upper 60s.

Tuesday and Wednesday

These days are likely to be more or less the same as Monday. Highs for most of the area will reach the 82 to 85-degree range. This is warm for early November, but still several degrees below record highs. Nights remain mild, only dropping into the upper 60s.

Thursday

By Thursday we’ll be anticipating the passage of a cool front from west to east. However, most of the day Thursday should again be warm and fairly humid, with mostly cloudy skies and highs likely reaching the low 80s again. By Thursday afternoon rain showers ahead of the front should reach the College Station area, and push into Houston during the overnight hours.

Friday

As of now, the best chance for widespread showers should come on Friday morning. There is not great agreement in the global models at this point, so I could see a scenario where much of Houston receives 0.5 to 1.5 inches, and another in which most of the area picks up 2 to 4 inches. This will ultimately depend on the evolution of the front as it nears Houston, and whether it slows down for a bit. In any case, expect a cloudy day Friday, with highs in the 60s. Lows on Friday night should drop into the upper 50s.

Saturday and Sunday

Veteran’s Day, on Saturday, should be a partly to mostly cloudy affair. I still have questions about temperatures and the potential for lingering rainfall, but we can probably expect a day with highs in the 60s. Rain showers will remain possible on Saturday on Sunday, although chances will be far better closer to the coast than for areas inland of Interstate 10. Sunday will be similar, with highs in the 60s and perhaps a 30 percent chance of (mostly) light rainfall.

Next week

Most of next week should see highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s, with lows in the 50s. Skies are likely to be partly sunny, with low but non-negligible rain chances. We’ll see a warming trend heading into next weekend, and then after that? Possibly another front. We’ll see.

El Niño is strengthening

Over at The Eyewall, Matt has written a good post to summarize the strengthening of El Niño as we get closer to winter. It’s worth checking out for the details. The bottom line for Texas is that this probably will lead to a wetter and cooler winter, with the potential for stormier weather. We’ll see.

After lows in the 30s across many spots yesterday morning, we’re waking up a touch less cold today. Some clouds in the region and a return to onshore winds have ensured we begin the transition back to something less winter-like and more autumn-like for a few days.

Rain will be at a premium over the next week or so, with our best rain chances probably holding off until next Thursday or so ahead of what should be our next cool front.

Today and the weekend

So if you have any plans this weekend, we don’t expect any real complications to impact you weather-wise. Look for highs in the mid-70s today and upper-70s to around 80 or so on Saturday and Sunday. Morning lows will be in the 50s tomorrow and probably close to 60 or so on Sunday. Winds look fairly light. We may see a little additional cloud cover Saturday and especially Sunday, but no rain is currently expected.

Monday and Tuesday

We’ll transition back more to an early autumn type pattern here with highs in the 80s and partly sunny skies. Morning lows will also bulk up into the 60s. Rain chances remain fairly low, though a couple isolated showers or sprinkles cannot be ruled out. Weather should not impede voting on Tuesday.

Mid to late week

Wednesday is going to be very warm and very humid. Look for morning lows well into the 60s and daytime highs well into the 80s. Can we print out a rogue 90 degree day? I would give it about a 15 percent chance. We’re more likely to hit 86 to 88, but you definitely cannot rule out 90 entirely. Houston has never recorded a 90 degree day in November, so this would be decidedly abnormal. We’ll see.

A cold front will likely end the hotter weather by Thursday or Friday, with highs backpedaling into the 70s and lows in the 50s. There’s a bit of uncertainty beyond the front regarding whether we clear out entirely or see lingering clouds and rain chances. But it will turn cooler. More Monday!

I hope it’s not just me. My backyard is a carpet of acorns, and they just keep falling. There are so many it is painful to walk with bare feet. With such an abundance our younger dog started to eat them—which we tried to stop, but it’s difficult when dogs like to go outside, and this good boy loves to run and play and chase squirrels—and he got really sick because of it. This experience, no doubt, will provide him additional incentive when chasing the squirrels who inhabit our backyard, and are no doubt enjoying a bumper crop of fodder.

This is a mast year for acorns, of course. Scientists don’t precisely understand why oak trees, every two to five years, produce an abundance of acorns. There are some theories, one of the most prominent of which is that a springtime drought is good for pollination. And if you go back to when the oak trees were pollinating this year in early March, much of Houston had not seen much rain for a few weeks. So things were pretty dry. But we don’t know for sure. Most likely it is part of the oak natural cycle to ensure that new trees will grow.

There are also a lot of non-scientific theories that suggest mast years portend a hard winter ahead. But I’d slot those into the category of old wives’ tales, not that I have anything against old wives! So I’m not sure this mast year has much to tell us about the upcoming winter. The only forecast I’m reasonably confident in is that we’ll see a bumper crop of squirrels next spring.

Thursday

As expected, temperatures this morning are quite cold. Much of Houston has dropped into the mid- or upper-30s. We’re going to get close to our record low for today, 34 degrees set in 1991, but probably will remain a couple of degrees above this temperature. In any case lows this morning are about 20 degrees below normal. It’s also the turning point for the current cold spell, and marks the beginning of a return to warmer conditions. With sunny skies we’re going to see high temperatures reach the upper 60s today, with light easterly winds. Low temperatures tonight will be about 10 degrees warmer for most locations.

Friday

The warming trend continues as high pressure fully shifts to the east, allowing for the onshore flow to resume. After temperatures start out at about 50 degrees on Friday morning, they’ll rise into the mid-70s with mostly sunny skies. Lows on Friday night will only drop to around 60 degrees.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend looks warm, sunny, and mild. Highs on both days will be about 80 degrees. By Sunday night, overnight temperatures will only be dropping into the mid-60s, so most of fall’s chill will be gone. Dewpoints will also be creeping up so it will feel humid, but not Houston-humid, if you know what I mean. And unless you just moved here in the last week, you probably do. Rain chances are about 10 percent near the coast, and closer to zero percent further inland.

Next week

Most of next week looks warm, with highs generally in the mid-80s, or possibly a tick higher on some days. Lows are going to increase to the upper 60s, and humidity will continue to rise a bit. Rain chances increase toward the end of next week in association with what probably will be our next front. But I don’t have much confidence in the timing or strength of said front. So if you like cooler and drier air, my advice is to spend some quality time outside today and tomorrow. Just, you know, don’t let your dog feast upon the abundant buffet of acorn delights.