In brief: The main story over the next week will be heat, with high to periodically extreme conditions for the Houston area. Shower and storm chances will diminish but probably never get to zero. Saharan dust should show up this weekend before declining. And the tropics are busy with stuff to watch but no serious concerns for us at this moment.
Today through Sunday
As high pressure begins to expand over Texas, somewhat reminiscent of what happened last summer, the spigot should temporarily shut off here in Houston. We can’t rule out an isolated shower in the area, but the coverage of rain is going to diminish. The main story through the weekend will be heat. Heat advisories are in effect today and will likely be in effect tomorrow as well. Highs will be well into the 90s to near 100 in spots. Morning lows will be around 80 degrees.
Sunday will be interesting as a plume of Saharan dust arrives in Texas. We’ll see hazy skies which won’t help a ton with the temperature, but it may lead to a slight decrease in how bad it feels outside. Here’s the wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) outlook for the next week, and you can see the slight dip on Sunday from “extreme” levels to “high” levels.
Wet bulb globe temperatures will test “extreme” levels today and tomorrow before a slight respite on Sunday. Back at it next week. (Weather Bell)
Remember, WBGT is a good, objective measure of how intense the combination of heat, humidity, wind, sun, and more is on the human body. Extreme levels, which we frequently hit last summer indicate heat where everyone should take precautions, even hardy Houstonians. High levels are more typical in Houston throughout summer. So, just take it easy this weekend.
Next week
The forecast is somewhat on autopilot for most of next week. High pressure should stay in tact, centered to our north or northeast most of the week, keeping us plenty hot, but never sending rain chances to zero. They will be quite low on several days though. Expect highs in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees with lows in the 70s to near 80 degrees; a very “high summer” feel for early July.
Fourth of July
At this point, it would seem that most plans should be good to go. We can’t rule out a shower, of course, but anything severely disruptive seems unlikely. Just make sure you’re hydrated (with water) and able to cool off. Evening festivities will probably see temperatures drop from the 90s into the upper-80s. Call it about a 10 percent chance of a shower or storm right now, but we encourage you to check back Monday for the latest.
Tropics
We continue to monitor Invest 95L, which is almost certainly going to become a depression or tropical storm by the end of the weekend. We have daily updates at The Eyewall, our companion site, and we will continue to provide those all weekend.
Invest 95L in the central Atlantic is likely to develop into a tropical depression or storm this weekend. It will likely impact the Lesser Antilles by early next week before possibly weakening a bit. (NOAA NHC)
For now, we expect this to be a concern for the Lesser Antilles before it gets disrupted by land or the usual shenanigans present in the eastern Caribbean in early July. From there, all bets are off, but a general west or slightly north of west motion should continue toward Central America or the Yucatan. It is not a serious concern for us in Houston right now, but we’ll be watching it closely to see if anything changes.
The other system moving into the Bay of Campeche this weekend (Invest 94L) will move into Mexico with no impacts for us in Houston or Texas.
In brief: We’ll have a couple of more afternoons where some scattered showers will be likely, bringing a bit of welcome rain and briefly cooler temperatures. By this weekend we’ll be pushing the upper 90s, with the chance of hitting 100 degrees for the first time this year in Houston. Also, skies will be hazy due to Saharan dust.
Thursday
Today will have a similar setup to Wednesday, when we saw the development of some scattered thunderstorms across central and some southern parts of the region (mostly) during the afternoon hours. Again we’ll be on the periphery of high pressure, allowing for the seabreeze and daytime heating to do some work.
Rain chances this afternoon are probably about 30 percent, and some areas could see as much as half an inch of rain beneath stronger thunderstorms. Highs will depend on the extent of showers in your locality, but I still expect much of the region to get up into the mid-90s. Winds will be very light, from the southeast at maybe 5 mph. Lows tonight will only drop to about 80 degrees.
Friday
A similar day to Thursday, although perhaps with slightly less rain coverage. Highs again will push into the mid-90s for the most part, with light southerly winds.
Could we see some 100s in the Houston area by Sunday? Yes. (Weather Bell)
Saturday and Sunday
The weekend looks very warm as high pressure becomes a little bit more dominant. Rain chances will go down, close to zero percent on Saturday, and maybe 20 percent or so on Sunday. Daytime highs on Saturday will be in the mid- to upper-90s, and then on Sunday some locations could reach 100 degrees for the first time this year. Please take heat precautions if you’re going to be outside during the middle of the day this weekend.
In addition, we’ll see the influx of Saharan dust, which will produce hazy conditions over the Houston region this weekend. For most people this won’t have significant effects, but it could make sunsets more brilliant.
Next week
Monday will be very hot, bringing the region another chance to hit 100 degrees. There also will be a limited chance of rain showers, perhaps 20 percent. Most of next week should be similar, although slightly cooler. Expect highs in the mid- to upper-90s for the most part, with isolated to scattered showers during the afternoon hours along the seabreeze.
Here come the Atlantic tropics. (National Hurricane Center)
Atlantic tropics
After a (very) brief lull following Tropical Storm Alberto, the Atlantic tropics are starting to come to life. The deep Atlantic seems to be heating up earlier than normal, likely due to the excessively warm temperatures in the main development region of the ocean. We’re starting to see a more active African “wave train,” which is the source of the majority of hurricanes during the Atlantic season. Typically this does not get going for at least another month, but here we are.
There are a couple of active systems, but the one to watch is the trailing disturbance, shown in red on the map above, known as “Invest 95L.” (Invest simply stands for “area of investigation”). We’ll be providing deeper coverage of this system on The Eyewall, but what I would say right now is that there’s a low-end chance this disturbance eventually reaches the Gulf of Mexico in about 10 days time. Really, it’s not something I’d be too concerned about. But we’re keeping an eye on it, just in case.
Houston may be settling into its summer weather doldrums, but let’s face it: In June, the skies over the region were a happenin’ place. As happens this time of the month, Eric and Matt have cracked open their inboxes and answered your queries.
Got a burning question of your own? Smash the Feedback button in the blog’s sidebar, respond here with a comment or talk to us on our socials: X, Facebook, Instagram, Threads, Mastodon, Bluesky and LinkedIn.
Q. So I’m curious which model actually panned out (regarding TS Alberto). Was it the regular models or the AI models? I remember it being mentioned that there were some differences between them a few days ago.
Thanks for the question. We took a look at this in the immediate aftermath of Alberto, and in terms of track the physics-based models significantly outperformed most of the AI-models. Essentially, some of the AI models wanted to bring the tropical system much further north into the Gulf of Mexico (toward Texas) whereas the traditional models kept it bottled up in the Southern Gulf, which is what ultimately happened.
I’ve also been looking at the AI guidance more frequently for non-storm events and so far I’m not convinced it’s any better (or even as good as) the physics-based models. Of course this is just my personal experience. The best way to determine the value of these new models will be using rigorous, comparative studies of what the models predicted across a range of variables against what ultimately happened. Now that the AI forecasts are coming out in real time, those kinds of studies can be done. I look forward to seeing the results in the coming months and we’ll be sure and share any interesting findings here.
–Eric
Q: Is the news media hurricane prediction for 2024 hype or more on the real side? I am debating getting a generator, but don’t want to buy into the hype if that’s what it is.
A: It’s certainly not hype. But you have to look at it logically. The data almost unanimously suggests that this should about as active a hurricane season as we could have. Thus, the seasonal forecasts are all quite bullish on hurricane development.
Colorado State has a generally good track record with seasonal forecast predictions, so their bullish outlook for 2024 has raised eyebrows and alarm in some circles. (Colorado State)
In fact, one thing we did at our companion site The Eyewall back in early June was to expand on ways that the active hurricane season forecasts could bust. The reality is that it could bust. Absolutely. Would that mean the preseason forecasts were all hype? As a scientist, I will tell you certainly not. As a member of the public, I get why you’d have that opinion though. So we encourage people to look at the decisions they make with regard to seasonal hurricane forecasts with nuance.
Were you probably going to get a generator anyway? We’ve had far more events non-tropics related that have caused extensive power outages in our area in recent years. Just consider the whole picture. And in this case consider a busted forecast a good thing if it happens.
–Matt
Q. Why is Potential Tropical Cyclone One not called “Tropical Depression One”? I thought a storm was called a tropical depression before it became a tropical storm?
It’s all a bit confusing, isn’t it? But the intent here by the National Hurricane Center is good. A “Potential Tropical Cyclone” is sometimes issued before a tropical system becomes a ‘depression’ or a ‘tropical storm.’ This happens when a system could bring tropical storm or hurricane conditions to land within 48 hours.
Essentially, forecasters from the hurricane center do this when they want to highlight the threat of a tropical system to land, but that system has not yet formed. Why do this? Because sometimes a tropical storm does not intensify until very shortly before landfall, at which point formal warnings are often too late to be actionable. The hurricane center started doing this in 2017, and you can find more information here.
–Eric
Q: Curious to know how the NWS determines if a tornado occurred and categorizes it after the event? Is it based on eyewitness accounts, damage, etc?
A: There are a few ways to confirm a tornado has occurred. Some larger tornadoes have “tornadic debris signatures” on radar, where you can see the radar showing you lofted debris from tornado damage. The most obvious and easiest way to suspect a tornado is eyewitness accounts.
But sometimes well-meaning people think something is a tornado when it is not. That’s why the NWS usually sends out a survey team to go investigate damage after a storm if a tornado is suspected. They can combine spotter or eyewitness accounts with radar data to determine exactly where to look for tornado damage. Generally speaking, if the damage is all pointed in one direction, that’s a tell-tale sign of straight line winds, or a microburst/downburst, not a tornado.
Rating the tornado’s intensity is another matter. There is some subjectivity involved, but in general, the damage indicators as provided in the Enhanced Fujita scale provide a decent categorization for a tornado.
–Matt
Q. You are all hype. I thought your website was dedicated to providing weather insight for Houston without the hype but your Stage 2 flooding article was all hype!! Don’t quit your day job!
A. Let me put your weary and worried mind at ease: we won’t be quitting our day jobs. My day job is writing about space exploration for Ars Technica. Matt is a meteorologist for an energy company in Houston. Would you believe that Space City Weather is hobby for both of us, a second job we do to try and help the community?
I do think it is useful to revisit our thinking about issuing a Stage 2 flood alert on Sunday, June 16. Here’s the post, which we published at 9:53 a.m. Note that this was Father’s Day, and Matt and I spent a couple of hours that morning strategizing, thinking, and writing about the forecast. I mention that just so you understand we’re pretty dedicated to this stuff.
That morning we actually gave some thought to issuing a Stage 3 warning for coastal areas, but I decided it was best to hold back for a time. At the time some of the modeling was rather dire (showing upwards of 20 inches of rain across parts of Houston in some instances). The ‘official’ precipitation forecast from NOAA showed a bullseye of 12 inches of rain just south of Houston, and the flood threat was very real for coastal areas. In any case, we felt it was time to raise the alarm about the potential for significant flooding in the Houston region for the coming week. So we pulled the trigger.
NOAA rainfall accumulation forecast issued on Father’s Day morning. (Weather Bell)
Some uncertainty definitely remained—we caveated our forecast with the following statement, “Our forecast modeling remains a bit split as to whether the heaviest rain will fall near Galveston, or further south closer to the Coastal Bend.” The latter is precisely what happened.
In forecasting, you win some, and you lose some. All we can really do is to try and do our best, and that’s just what we do here.
In brief: Although high pressure is largely dominant, Houston will have a couple of chances to see some spotty thunderstorms today and tonight. Mostly, however, we’re going to see continued hot and sunny weather, with temperatures in the mid- to upper-90s and plenty of humidity. That forecast holds for as far as the eye can see.
Monthly Q&A
Be sure and check back on the site later this morning, as we’ll be releasing our monthly Q&A at 10 am CT, in which Matt and I answer questions submitted by readers. There are some fun ones this month!
Wednesday
Skies will be mostly sunny today, with highs in the mid- to upper-90s. Generally, the further inland you live, the warmer the temperatures will be. Winds will remain light, from the south at just 5 mph. The real intrigue today and tonight is rain chances. They’re not high, but we could see some briefly lived thunderstorms.
With 2+ inches of precipitable water in the atmosphere there is plenty of moisture to support some showers today. The question is whether we can break the capping inversion. (Weather Bell)
The first opportunity comes during the mid-afternoon hours, as daytime heating combines with the seabreeze to potentially spark some showers and thunderstorms in central Houston, or perhaps closer to the coast. These should be fairly isolated and short-lived. There is also a chance of some storms along a dying front moving south into the region this evening or tonight. Frankly, our model guidance is all over the place, so we could see anything from nothing (probably most likely) to a fairly broad line of storms moving southward late tonight or early Thursday (far less likely). In any case, something to be aware of.
Thursday
Expect continued hot and muggy weather. We could see some additional, isolated showers and thunderstorms due to daytime heating. Overall rain chances are probably only about 10 or 20 percent, however.
Houston’s heat levels remain high, but not extreme heading into next week. (Weather Bell)
Friday, Saturday, and Sunday
Expect more hot weather, with highs in the mid- to upper-90s for the area and plenty of humidity. We’ll continue to see low, but not non-existent rain chances through the weekend as daytime heating sparks seabreeze showers. These probably will be a bit more likely for areas along and south of Interstate 10. But for the most part, it’s just going to be sunshine and heat. We may also see some haze, as a plume of Saharan dust pushes into the area over the weekend.
Next week
To be honest, next week doesn’t look much different from this week, weather-wise. We’ll continue to be very hot, but not extremely so for Houston in the summertime.
