Good morning. Houston faces another six warm days, with some healthy rain chances on Wednesday and Thursday, before a sweeping front drives us truly into fall-like weather. And with the potential for nights in the 40s, it may feel almost winter-like for a few days next week. The timing of all this lines up with Halloween, so I’m still not particularly confident in that forecast yet. But I’ll discuss some of the uncertainties below.

Tuesday

Today should be a sunny and warm day, with a fairly robust southerly flow. Winds probably will gust as high as 25 mph from the south. For most of us, highs will top out in the mid-80s, although a few inland locations may briefly pop into the upper-80s. With a slightly drier flow it won’t be quite as humid as Monday, and rain chances should be essentially zero. Lows tonight drop into the mid-70s for most.

Wednesday and Thursday

As high pressure eases away from the area we’re going to see a surge in atmospheric moisture levels during the middle of the week. This is a tricky forecast, because this much moisture will tend to support heavy rainfall. At the same time, the most favorable atmospheric dynamics—primarily a forcing mechanism to lift this surface moisture—will lie over Central and West Texas. The bottom line is that I think most of our area will probably get between 0.25 and 0.75 inch of rain this week. However, there is a risk for some areas to receive 2 inches or more, particularly the further inland one lives. Skies, otherwise, will be partly sunny with highs in the mid-80s.

Friday

Rain chances will start to diminish by the end of the week, but not go away entirely. We’re still looking at a warm-ish day, with highs in the mid-80s and partly sunny skies.

Saturday and Sunday

Expect mostly sunny skies this weekend, with highs in the mid-80s. If you’re like me and you’re looking for a time to get in a long training run for the Houston Marathon with low humidity, I’m afraid there are no good options. Dewpoints look fairly high throughout the weekend, so expect humid days and nights, with lows of around 70 degrees.

Next week

We still have lots of questions about the timing of the cold front, and the amount of Canadian air it will usher into the region. So from here out you’re going to get my best guess. I think the front probably will push into Houston sometime on Monday, possibly during the morning hours. There will be some initial showers with the front. And then it’s possible some light showers will linger into the Monday night and Tuesday morning. However, I do think this will probably end before it’s time to trick-or-treat on Halloween (next Tuesday). We’ll see. At this point I think much of the area will see highs drop into the 60s next week, with lows possibly in the 40s. It’s still a week or more out, so the usual caveats apply.

Good morning! I want to thank the hundreds of people who came out to celebrate Fall Day on Sunday afternoon—it was lovely to meet so many of you, and see some old friends. Shout out to the family who drove all the way down from College Station. I also want to thank Reliant for supporting such a great event. And finally, today is the eighth anniversary of Space City Weather. I can’t believe it’s been that long, because it only feels like Matt and I are getting started.

As for our weather, there won’t be much change for the next week or so. We’re going to be in a warm-ish pattern for fall, with highs mostly in the mid-80s and lows in the low- to mid-70s. We’ll also see some decent rain chances later this week. This pattern will hold through the weekend before a fairly strong front is likely to arrive by or before Halloween, which could drop daytime highs into the 60s. Still a long ways to go, but I wanted you to know there will be an end to this warmer and muggier weather, eventually.

Monday

At Fall Day several people asked me what the weather would be like for next week, and I simply pointed to the sky. What we saw on Sunday is more or less likely what we should see today, and for the rest of the week. We’re going to see partly sunny skies, and highs in the mid- to upper-80s on Monday. Winds will be out of the south, as they will for much of this week, gusting to about 20 mph. A few areas near and along the Gulf Freeway saw rainfall this morning as some atmospheric moisture surged into the area, but I think that’s mostly it for rain chances until Wednesday. Lows tonight will drop into the low 70s in Houston, with cooler conditions for outlying areas.

Tuesday

This is the one day this week that I’m confident will see mostly sunny skies. So if your plans require sunshine, Tuesday’s the day. Look for highs in the upper 80s, with southerly winds. Overnight lows drop into the low 70s.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

A slug of tropical moisture will move into the region during the second half of the work week. Since much of this moisture is coming from the Pacific, the best rain chances will be west of Interstate 35, in Central and West Texas. The Houston region should be on the periphery of the main action, with most of the area picking up perhaps 0.25 to 1 inch of rain through Friday. Look for partly to mostly cloudy skies otherwise, with highs in the mid-80s, and lows in the low- to mid-70s.

Saturday and Sunday

For now there appears to be little chance of the front making it through by the weekend, so we can probably expect partly to mostly sunny skies, with highs in the mid-80s, and continued muggy air. Rain chances are not zero, but at this point they don’t look particularly high, either.

Next week

At this point I would pencil in the aforementioned front for next Monday, which hopefully will be the case as it may bring an additional round of showers. It would be nice to have this weather out of the way for next Tuesday, Halloween, but for now there’s just no way to be sure. In any case, after the front we probably will have a few days with highs in the 60s or 70s, and lows in the 40s or 50s. November, in other words, should feel like November.

Good afternoon. As we get closer to Fall Day on Sunday, I wanted to share a final update on what you can expect if—excuse me, I mean when—you show up. Matt and I will be on hand, along with our webmaster Lee Hutchinson and web guru Dwight Silverman. Reliant has put a lot of work into making this a fun event for all, and they’re offering some great giveaways:

• 4 Houston Rockets tickets
• 4 Houston Texans Tickets
• a Lance McCullers autographed baseball
• a Michael Brantley autographed jersey

In addition, the first 20 people who show up can get a free, personalized paperback copy of my book on the origins of SpaceX, Liftoff. All you have to do is ask (and show up at 4 pm or shortly after).

We’re also going to have several activities for children, including face painting, and an assortment of fall-inspired fare that can be purchased separately:

• Chaider (chai & apple cider)
• Dirty Pumpkin Chai
• Lemonade
• Hot cocoa
• Flavored Syrups (pumpkin, hazelnut, vanilla, caramel, sf vanilla)
• Chocolate croissant
• Pumpkin Muffin

As for the weather, it still looks warm-ish, but based on the latest data I anticipate temperatures in the low- to mid-80s in the Hermann Park area, with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Finally, there will be reserved parking available near the McGovern Centennial Gardens, so please be sure and look for the signs.

See you Sunday!

Look, it’s late October now, and it’s decidedly autumn. The weather and calendar this weekend are somewhat out of sync, but, you know, that’s to be expected this year. Anyway, the weather looks warm to hot in the coming days, but that will not stop us from celebrating the end of the extreme heat we all endured this summer. Please do join us on Sunday at the lovely McGovern Gardens in Hermann Park. It should be a good time. You can pregame with us before the Astros game 6 at 7 PM! Ain’t no party like a Scranton Space City Weather party!

Today

Friday will be one of those days where the right combination of ingredients comes together to potentially allow us to test records. Our official record high in Houston is 93° from 2004, and we currently have a forecast of 91° at IAH, where official readings are taken. Why? We’ll have a combination of an offshore wind, decreasing humidity, sunshine, and a relatively hot air mass in place. Drier air heats up more efficiently than more humid air, and thus we should easily make 90 or better today. Even though it’s cool this morning, you will want shorts this afternoon.

One other note: Today is also an ozone action day, meaning poor air quality so those of you that need to take precautions on those days should be exercising them today.

Weekend

Both weekend days should be fine with sun and clouds. Sunday may have more clouds than sun as the day progresses. Otherwise, look for a pleasant start to Saturday with 50s and 60s and generally low humidity. We’ll warm to 90 degrees or a touch hotter again. With clouds and increasing humidity on Sunday, look for a warmer morning with mid-60s or warmer, followed by a slightly less hot afternoon (mid to upper 80s). Saturday should see mostly light winds with a bit of a breeze out of the south on Sunday.

Next week

The forecast for next week will be dominated by a stalled out front over the Central U.S. and moisture being funneled up from the Pacific. The combination should produce locally heavy rain in interior Texas up through the Plains next week with several inches. Locally, the forecast is a bit trickier. With most forcing for storms off to our north and west, those areas may hog the majority of the moisture for most of the week, leaving us partly sunny and very warm and humid with just some scattered showers.

Basically, I would say to expect a couple periods of showers or storms next week, with the highest odds off to the north and west of the Houston area. But places like Abilene, Wichita Falls, and probably the DFW Metroplex would be more likely to see heavier, more organized rains next week. We’ll have more for you Monday!