Putting this morning’s freeze into perspective

It is quite cold for early March across Houston, but this is far from uncharted territory. Here are just a few data points this morning:

• As of 6:15am, the low at Bush Intercontinental Airport is 30 degrees. The record low for today is 25 degrees, set in 1989.
• The latest freeze ever recorded at Bush IAH came on April 10, 1973, when the low was 31 degrees.
• College Station did shatter a record on Monday, with a maximum temperature of just 35 degrees—five degrees below its previous record of 40 degrees.

In short, it’s very cold across Houston with a freeze blanketing almost the entire region except for the coast, but it is not unprecedented to have such an outbreak of cold weather in March.

Tuesday

After an long string of mostly cloudy days, we’re going to see the return of mostly sunny skies today. This should allow temperatures to rise above freezing fairly soon this morning, but with northerly winds continuing to bring cooler weather into the region we can expect temperatures today to only get up into the mid- to upper-40s. Tonight should be cold again for the region, with overnight lows perhaps 2 to 3 degrees warmer than Monday night.

Rodeo weather

Conditions at the rodeo this evening will be cool going in, with highs holding on to the mid-40s just before the sun goes down. Winds will be fairly light, at 6 to 8mph out of the north, so that will help keep things from being too cold. By the time the show ends, however, temperatures will have fallen into the upper 30s, so be prepared for that.

Wednesday

The high pressure associated with this strong cold front will move away on Wednesday, and as that happens winds will turn easterly and eventually southerly. This will mean two things for Wednesday: the return of some clouds, and a warmer day in the 50s. Lows Wednesday night will probably only fall to around 50 for most of the region as a warmer pattern begins settling in.

Thursday and Friday

Clouds, humidity, and the potential return of early morning fog will be the story to end the week as highs temperatures get back up to around 70 degrees, and lows only fall into the 60s. Rain chances will be somewhere in the 30 to 50 percent range, but at this point any accumulations look slight.

Saturday

The forecast for the first half of the weekend is still trending toward rain, but the details are pretty messy. Yes, some kind of front is going to approach the area and move through, but the extent of cold air behind it is not particularly clear (the European model’s ensemble range for temperatures on Sunday morning is 50 to 70 degrees). Yes, the upper level pattern indicates the potential for rain, but will there be a smattering of rain or as much as an inch with some thunderstorms? At this point there are no clear indicators so stay tuned.

Sunday

Sunday’s weather will be determined by what happens Saturday and, if you read the previous blurb, you’ll know we don’t have a great handle on conditions then. If the front clears the area we could see a nice and sunny day, but if it doesn’t we’re going to see some lingering showers. Helpful, isn’t it?!?

Next week

Not much intelligible to say about next week other than that temperatures for Spring Break in Houston look fairly warm, in the 70s, with decent rain chances for the early part of the week.