Good Monday morning! Matt here this morning, covering for Eric. Thanks again to Eric for covering me in my opening days of fatherhood. Thanks to all for the comments and well wishes over the last couple weeks. I apologize for any typos, though I’ll blame it on the lack of sleep.
The Houston area has seen repetitive rounds of thunderstorms over the last week and change, but as someone who has been shut out most of the time, I’ve taken notice that the total rainfall distribution has been somewhat erratic.
Some areas have seen as much as three to five inches of rain this August, while others have seen a tenth of an inch or less. The winners appear to be in eastern Harris County and also up toward The Woodlands southwest toward Cypress. Waller County has done well also. So it’s been feast or famine for much of the region in August. Looking ahead to this week, the faucet will slow to a trickle for a couple days, and mostly typical August weather sets in.
Today & Tuesday
Our weather pattern has begun to change a bit, as high pressure and dry air begin to flex overhead. This should significantly limit storms in our area this afternoon. Expect high temps in the mid-90s. On Tuesday, we’ll see more of the same, though the rain chances may not be quite as limited. So, we’ll call it just a slight chance of showers. More mid-90s are expected.
There was a good bit of Saharan dust in the skies yesterday. Expect more of that today. Dust will slowly thin out on Tuesday and Wednesday. Air quality will be poor. This sort of thing will be worst for those with respiratory ailments. It’s also not optimal for those of us with regular seasonal allergies. The good news is that Saharan dust outbreaks tend to have peaked by now. So these events should become a little less frequent and intense as we move forward.
Wednesday through Friday
Typical August weather in Houston can be expected to round out the week. Temperatures will probably be one or two degrees cooler than usual, but that will hardly be noticeable to most of us. We’ll peak with highs in the mid-90s and lows in the upper-70s.
All days should see a mix of sun and clouds with a token 20 to 30 percent chance of showers or storms in the afternoon. Again, expect erratic and uneven rainfall distribution, with some of us possibly seeing an inch or two of rain, while others see storm clouds passing by in the distance.
Tropics
Around this date last year, we latched onto the disturbance that would become Hurricane Harvey as an item of note in the tropics, though a very vague item in terms of specifics of what, where, and when. We’ve been fortunate so far this season here in Houston and most of the U.S. coast with no legitimate tropical threats to consider. Looking at the Atlantic this morning, not much of anything is going on worth noting. We still have a lot of dry air and dust (though that’s slowly subsiding) in the Atlantic, as well as an awful lot of wind shear in the Caribbean. Those all act to limit tropical activity.
I think the tropics will stay mostly quiet over the next week or so. Looking out into the second week (so post-August 20th) on the models, we may begin to be seeing very subtle signs of some increased activity deep in the Atlantic, which would be normal for late August. Still, we aren’t seeing anything specific of note and nothing at all in the Gulf at this time; again, it’s only subtle signs. But we are entering the peak of the peak season in 10-15 days, so we’ll remain vigilant. All is well and quiet for now, however.
Western edge of League City here. We haven’t seen a drop in at least a week.
*about a week. Sorry. Lol.
Yep, I’m in the same boat as Jimmy, except I’m closer to I-45. We got a few seconds of rain on Saturday—not even enough to fully cover the pavement, and other than that it’s been bone dry. Had to go out and water the plants on Sunday. Missing the rain very very much 🙁
A colleague of mine was telling me that the Saharan dust increases our barometric pressure. I’m skeptical of his assertion and wanted to get your professional opinion on that. Thanks and congrats on fatherhood!
Brian: Thank you! I don’t believe it raises pressure, but it could be a symptom of a pattern that typically sees higher barometric pressure. Typically, to get dust into Texas, you need broad southeasterly flow around the base of high pressure. So, locally, there could be some coincidence here. A lot of times in weather, certain things will be attributed as causes when in reality they’re really just coincident symptoms. I think this is one of them. Because the dust itself isn’t actually doing anything to change the barometer. Kind of get where I’m going here? Hope this is helpful!
Thanks! I did some fact checking on my own and came to the same conclusion but wanted an expert opinion since I can barely tell the difference between a cirrus and a cumulonimbus cloud!!!
South Conroe here, it’s rained every day my new grass is very happy 😃
Yesterday we had our “ Harvey Recovery Celebration “ ( yes almost a year later and our house is finally done) BUT the heavy rain was a reminder of what we went through 😜
Matt -A while back I recall reading that El Nino might form in the Pacific this summer. Any updates on that phenomenon? Thanks for your excellent work!
Robert: Yes, El Nino is absolutely developing in the Pacific already. I don’t think we’ve met any technical definitions as of yet, but there’s a reservoir of warm water building, both at the surface and below the surface, which is typically indicative of an El Nino forming (also seeing some atmospheric signals that hint this is the case as well out over the Pacific). I don’t think we’re heading for a strong El Nino event, but we should be heading for a defined one…probably by sometime in autumn. Hope this helps!
Hope that’s the case, that general means better snows in the southern rockies.
Hi Matt, welcome back and a big congratulations on fatherhood!
Last Saturday afternoon and evening out in Cypress was just incredible – about 83 degrees, lower humidity and a genuinely cool southerly breeze. We thought that it was October. I know that summer storms can have an odd cooling effect, but even though we got maybe 10 minutes of a wimpy drizzle, it sure transformed the rest of the day. It wasn’t a front, but it behaved a lot that way. What exactly happens in situations like that to rather significantly cool and dry out in the air without the presence of a real front?
Thank you! What you’ll often see happen in summer, especially around here, is what I like to call atmospheric “bumper cars.” Basically, it gets hot during the day and we get scattered storms. What will happen is, as the rain cools the air under the storms, you’ll get what we call “outflow boundaries” or “gust fronts” that pulse out ahead of the storms themselves. So that’s why you’ll often see a big temperature drop like that, usually with a nice gust of wind…but sometimes no rain. As the rain-cooled air pushes out from the storm, it can often cut off the fuel source (hot, humid air) for the storm to develop, so it ends up weakening. But going back to the bumper car analogy: What we also see a lot of are these outflow boundaries or sea breeze boundaries colliding. When that happens, you often get new storms to form because as the boundaries run into each other, you get a good bit of vertical lift in the atmosphere, necessary for clouds/storms. New storms form, more boundaries, cool air moves into different parts of the area, more storms elsewhere. It’s a pretty common cycle in summer here, but interesting to observe, as you point out!
Fascinating and awesome explanation as usual, Matt – thank you!
Congratulations. The sleepless nights will pass. We were lucky enough that my wife was able to breastfeed our son. Except for the 2 AM feeding, he’d go out like a light after eating. But at 2 AM he decided that he needed to be rocked by me – mom wouldn’t do. Every night for months, my wife would get me up and I’d have to go to the rocker/recliner and rock our son to sleep. We had a cat that was very protective of our son. Usually our son would be perched on my right shoulder and the cat would be on the left. If I fell asleep, or if right hand left my son’s back, or if I stopped rocking, the cat would meow and swat my head until I got back with the program 🙂 After about 30 minutes of rocking my son could be put back to bed.
Thank you! I’ve noticed ours likes to be walked around the room….by me. For whatever reason, he seems to sleep easiest when I hold him and walk him around. I try and get him down after 15-30 mins or so, but I’ve got about 50% success rate so far. A lot of trial and error here! But it’s a joy.
If you are like me, you’ll remember that you had sleepless nights but you will forget how tired you were. The emotional bond with your son will remain with you forever. When I’m down, I just have to remember any of the joyous family occasions, and my mood brightens considerably. I believe that the greatest “job” ever is to be a parent.
3.20″ of rain in August here in the Champions area, after 7.27″ in July. Grass is very green and lush for August. The relatively mild temperatures have also been nice this month.
Well congratulations Matt on being a new father that’s a very special thing carries a lot of responsibility of course you already know that do me a favor racing with good morals and good beliefs and they will turn out just fine😎
Thank you!
Hi Matt! Congrats on fatherhood! I have a quick question that you may or may not be able to answer right now. I’m moving out of Houston and our drive out date is next Friday in the 24th. Think the weather will behave long enough for us to get clear of hurricane areas? We are planning on going straight north (as much as possible).
Thanks again for everything you and Eric do to keep us all sane!
Hi Stephanie. Thank you! Yes, I think you’re fine. No tropical activity is expected in the neighborhood over the next 7-10 days at least, and I see nothing two weeks out in our area. No worries as it stands now.
Congratulations on the arrival of your bundle of joy! So, so special.
Weather wise in Deer Park, we were blessed with about 5 inches plus in August. No hoses or sprinklers for us. Wish we could have shared some with those that didn’t get any rain.
Thank you!