Rains continue, with a serious flood risk near Matagorda Bay

Houston’s dreary pattern will continue for a few more days, especially over coastal areas, in the absence of high pressure to shut off rainfall. Our biggest concern lies well to the southwest of Houston, where several inches of rain have already fallen near Matagorda Bay. These areas are likely to see the potential for the heaviest rainfall again today and Thursday, raising our flooding concerns.

Wednesday

The overall pattern remains, with a broad upper-level low pressure system over coastal Texas that is helping to rain moisture down upon the Gulf, and parts of the state near the Gulf of Mexico. Showers are largely confined to coastal areas this morning, but models indicate they will push further inland later today, with areas north of Interstate 10 seeing at least a scattered chance of rainfall this afternoon.

For the Houston region, accumulations will likely be 1 to 3 inches right along the coast, with higher isolated amounts, and less than 1 inch for most inland areas north of Interstate 10. The map below, from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center, shows the area along the upper Texas coast most at risk for heavy rainfall later today. Matagorda Bay could see 2 to 4 inches of rain, with higher isolated totals. Due to clouds and rain, highs today will likely be in the low- to mid-80s for much of our area.

Thursday

This will be another wet day, quite possibly a repeat of Wednesday in terms of rains and temperatures, with heavy rainfall along the coast, and especially southwest of Houston near Matagorda Bay. After all of this accumulating rain, areas such as Port Lavaca and Victoria could definitely see the potential for flooding, which is something to consider if your travels take you southwest of Houston, along the Highway 59 corridor.

Friday and Saturday

As the low-pressure system begins to depart the potential for heavy rainfall should start to diminish some, but both of these days should see the potential for widespread, intermittent showers. Skies will otherwise be mostly cloudy, with highs in the upper 80s to 90 degrees for most. Have a backup plan for any outdoor activities on Saturday.

Sunday and beyond

Sunday should bring the return of at least some sunshine to the region, although we’re probably not talking full-on blue skies. Beginning Sunday, and into early next week, we should see a more summer-like pattern, with highs in the low 90s, and a 20 or 30 percent chance of a passing shower during the afternoon due to heating and the sea breeze.

Tropics

Tropical Storm Elsa is approaching the coastal bend of Florida this morning with 65 mph sustained winds. After landfall today it will cross the southeastern United States, likely maintaining tropical storm-strength winds before reemerging into the Atlantic just off the eastern shore of the United States. It could bring messy conditions up the eastern seaboard on Thursday and Friday as it accelerates to the northeast. After Elsa, the Atlantic tropics should remain mercifully quiet for at least the next week or so.