In brief: It is the final hours before the Arctic freeze sets in, and we’ve got the latest information on what to expect in terms of cold and wintry precipitation, and when to expect it. The bottom line is that Tuesday and possibly Wednesday both look very iffy for traveling around Houston.
It could be worse
As I type this, the Houston Texans are kicking off against the Kansas City Chiefs in the Divisional round of the NFL Playoffs. Game-time temperatures are in the low 20s, with gusty northwesterly winds. By Tuesday morning the low temperature there is expected to be -1 degree Fahrenheit. So yes, Houston is going to get cold this coming week, but it could always be worse. Also, let’s go Texans!
Temperatures will soon begin falling
It’s fairly pleasant outside, with temperatures in the low 60s across much of the Houston region. But don’t be fooled. Winds are steady from the northwest, and as the Sun falls toward the horizon, temperatures will follow. Lows tonight will drop to around freezing in Houston, and with gusty northerly winds the apparent temperature will feel as if it is in the low 20s, at least tomorrow morning. So if you’re joining me at the Houston Marathon, bundle up, wear layers, and use the cold as motivation to go faster. Despite the cold start, Sunday will be fine in terms of getting out and about. Highs will reach the low- to- mid-40s with sunny skies.
MLK Day
Houston will likely see a light freeze on Monday morning, although some inland areas (i.e. along and north of Highway 105) could see lows drop into the mid- to upper-20s. But Monday should be mostly fine for any last minute preparations ahead of a winter storm. Highs will be around 40 degrees. I’m afraid it’s a dreary forecast for MLK Day festivities, with increasing clouds and gusty easterly winds keeping a distinct chill in the air.
Monday night through Wednesday morning
You should plan to be home by around 9 pm CT or so on Monday. Although temperatures probably won’t fall below freezing until a few hours later, we might start to see some light sleet or snow by around this time. Temperatures reach freezing levels by midnight or so, when precipitation coverage should also begin to increase.
This is the point of the forecast where we are still mired in uncertainty. The key questions are a) how much moisture will be available for precipitation to form and fall, and b) what kind of wintry mix will develop. Neither is answerable yet. For areas along and north of Interstate 10, I continue to think snow is the most likely option (perhaps 1-3 inches, or more), but we could see sleet mixed in. For areas south of Interstate 10, sleet may be more likely than snow, although we may still see some snow there. Further to the southwest, in Matagorda and Brazoria counties, we may see freezing rain as the dominant precipitation.
The bottom line is that when you wake up on Tuesday, some sort of winter wonderland (or nightmare) is going to exist outside. Snow/sleet/freezing rain is likely to continue through the morning hours on Tuesday, and possibly into the early afternoon. We may see some partially clearing skies by evening. However, temperatures will struggle to reach above freezing on Tuesday, and if they do in Houston it may only be for an hour or two. So I don’t think we’re going to get enough warmth to melt and clear streets.
Depending on how much snow cover there is overnight, temperatures in Houston will either be in the upper teens or lower 20s on Wednesday morning, which will be the coldest of the week. Virtually the entire metro area, aside from the coast, is likely to experience a hard freeze. This is going to help maintain ice or snow on area roads, and my sense is that Wednesday morning will likely once again be a no-go for traveling around the area.
By Wednesday afternoon, the combination of (slightly) above freezing temperatures and sunny skies will probably help clear roads. But it’s difficult to be certain of this right now.
The end
Highs finally get back into the mid- to upper-40s on Thursday, so at this time we think Houston will return to normal by that time. Next weekend looks to be fairly mild.
Will my power go out
Honestly, we can’t answer that. However, our supposition is that things probably will be OK in Houston in terms of electricity. ERCOT issued an update on Friday saying that while it is monitoring grid conditions closely, they are expected to remain “normal” during the upcoming winter weather. That means officials are fairly confident the grid will hold up during the colder weather. Additionally, Houston is not expected to get significant accumulations of freezing rain, which can build up on power lines and snap them. So, cautiously, we’re optimistic. But we will see.
Next update
Since I’m running the marathon tomorrow and will be cooked for the rest of the day, Matt will be covering on Sunday. We’ll have a morning and late afternoon update on the winter storm situation, similar to today.
Good luck on the marathon!! Thank you for your great weather reporting
Thank you for the continued info and good luck on the marathon! When you pass by the Galleria area we’ll be waving at you!
Good luck on the Marathon, Eric! Wish I could still do that. Always appreciate your emails.
Mike C
Good luck in the Marathon tomorrow!!!!
Question, so would we need to bring plants inside (or cover them) today now? I thought we had until tomorrow to do that.
I’m already set just have to bring a couple of plants inside.
You did not read the post properly. One eye on the game, I trust.
FWIW I’m in conroe and I’m covering and bringing the ones that are suceptible to sub 20’s on Monday Morning. Tomorrow will be dedicated to covering the exposed pipes and draining others, Generator prep and bringing a couple of carts of wood to the house. I got my lemon tree covered today with a Clear Tarp under a cold frame and will be getting the heater under it Monday in preparation for the Tuesday night/ Wednesday AM Killer Frost.
Winter is coming.
Good luck with the marathon!
Thank you so much and good luck tomorrow!
You, Matt, and SCW are one (or 3) of the best things in Houston!
Any reason you refer to Monday as MLK day instead of Inaugural Day?
LOL!
MLK Day is an actual holiday. The inauguration is not.
Good answer.
This time it is Doomsday.
If you are a Fed Employee it is. I wonder if they will move their paid day off to Tuesday.
Funny joke!
Sir, this is a Wendy’s.
Joseph, I bet if you put your thinking cap on you’d realize that it’s because the 3rd Monday of January is always MLK day (a federal holiday.) The inauguration just happened to land on it this year. So of course it would be normal to refer to it as what it always is…MLK day.
Um takin a wild guess here, but MLK day is a “federal” holiday. 🤓
Good luck on your marathon run tomorrow!!
Good luck on the race tomorrow. I’ll be on West Gray near the River Oaks shopping center cheering all of you on!!
Good luck with the marathon tomorrow, Eric! My Dad ran it for 29 years and just loved it – he said the crowds and volunteers are always the best!
The teaser about the power grid holding is not exactly hype but it’s heading in that direction. (Power grid should hold.) Since the belief is that it will hold and that’s the status quo, it should have been more of a statement than a teaser question. Just nitpicking a tweak. Y’all are the best and I’ve waited all afternoon for this post so I can stop stalling!
considering what happened in 21 and last year, being concerned about power staying on during a weather event is reasonable teaser
Exactly Tine, Hard lesson in ’21. Tomorrow the Generator getting Fueled up and hooked to power box. If Power goes down I have a remote and a few swiches and I’ll have power back on. After ’21 I said Never again. Our family is’t going to peek our heads out until at least Thursday Morning and probably not friday!
Good luck with the marathon and thank you both for ALL you do to bring us the straight up on forecasting… not an easy job!
Good luck in the marathon. You guys are great. I always love the tone of the emails (dog meter!) and of course the valuable, honest, concise information. Thank you!!! Hoping for electricity…
Best wishes for the Marathon. Stay safe in the cold!
Thank you for all your continued information and presence; we count on y’all! Best wishes with the Marathon, Eric!
Good luck for the marathon. Hopefully those winds aren’t too brutal!
I’ll be huddled up with my blanket wishing you and all the runners a great race!
Thank you for all of the updates Eric! Have fun tomorrow, and run well!
Stay safe n proud of u fir running!
I trained for and walked the 2005 half-marathon. Did it before a milestone birthday that September! Done…never did it again. Just wanted to prove to myself that I could do it.
Reading about the weather forecast for tomorrow’s (1/18/02025) marathon reminded me of that event 20 years ago. Thank goodness it wasn’t too cold. I’m glad I made a weekend of it by staying at the Hilton Americas and scheduling a massage that next Monday.
Thank you, Space City Weather, for the forecasts with a personal touch….
Best wishes on the marathon!!!!
Good luck in the Marathon. Be safe. You
I have to admit. I am disappointed that we will likely not see snow where I live in Brazoria County. It will probably just be the same nuisance freezing rain some sleet that we always get. I was looking forward to finally seeing actual snow flurries again but that’s par for the coarse when you live right along the hot Texas Gulf Coast.
Good luck with the marathon and thank you for the update, Eric!!