Hey all. Here’s a quick holiday weekend update on the possibility of severe weather Sunday in advance of a cold front.
NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has upgraded the outlook for severe weather on Sunday for parts of the Houston area to “enhanced,” which means there is a greater likelihood of organized thunderstorm activity, some potentially intense. For areas marked in orange below there is a 30 percent chance of severe thunderstorms occurring within 25 miles of a given location.
The storms will be driven by a strong lifting motion in the atmosphere ahead of the cold front. Unstable air will add to the combustible mix, likely bringing damaging winds to some areas as well as the possibility of tornadoes. I would guess the strongest storms will move through along a squall line, sometime between 11 a.m. and 3 p.m. Sunday.
The system will have the potential to produce heavy rainfall, but as these storms will move through fairly steadily I don’t expect most areas to see more than 1 to 2 inches of rain. Isolated totals of 4 inches are possible, however. Rains should end late Sunday or early Monday.
Temperatures will fall pretty quickly after the cold front. Sunday evening will be in the 50s, and most of Monday will be in the 40s. The rest of 2015 and the first week to 10 days of January look to be quite cold, especially in contrast to what we’ve had so far this month.