Severe storms possible Sunday ahead of an Arctic front

Hey all. Here’s a quick holiday weekend update on the possibility of severe weather Sunday in advance of a cold front.

NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has upgraded the outlook for severe weather on Sunday for parts of the Houston area to “enhanced,” which means there is a greater likelihood of organized thunderstorm activity, some potentially intense. For areas marked in orange below there is a 30 percent chance of severe thunderstorms occurring within 25 miles of a given location.

Severe weather outlook for Sunday. (NOAA Storm Prediction Center)

Severe weather outlook for Sunday. (NOAA Storm Prediction Center)

The storms will be driven by a strong lifting motion in the atmosphere ahead of the cold front. Unstable air will add to the combustible mix, likely bringing damaging winds to some areas as well as the possibility of tornadoes. I would guess the strongest storms will move through along a squall line, sometime between 11 a.m. and 3 p.m. Sunday.

The system will have the potential to produce heavy rainfall, but as these storms will move through fairly steadily I don’t expect most areas to see more than 1 to 2 inches of rain. Isolated totals of 4 inches are possible, however. Rains should end late Sunday or early Monday.

Temperatures will fall pretty quickly after the cold front. Sunday evening will be in the 50s, and most of Monday will be in the 40s. The rest of 2015 and the first week to 10 days of January look to be quite cold, especially in contrast to what we’ve had so far this month.

12 thoughts on “Severe storms possible Sunday ahead of an Arctic front

      1. Janet S

        They seem to be waiting until the last minute to give much info. Cowards. Just kidding. Now finally what they are coming up with is more or less what you’re saying.

  1. Blackhawks Fan

    Happy Boxing Day to everyone back in Houston!

    Don’t blame me for bringing the cold weather back to Houston. It was a record on Christmas day here too.

  2. Tandy harris

    Eric this is Tandy from the flood page on Facebook I am going to post your weather forecast on the Facebook flood page and it would be greatly appreciated if you could just comment with one or two sentences basically describing what you think this means to the already flooded folks in Meyerland.

    It’s my understanding that every time there is a chance of rain they believe their house is going to flood and I don’t know if you could elaborate on based on the bayou count or anything like that… Any valid factual information that could possibly calm their fears

  3. TimP

    Sounds like a good day to be regularly monitoring the radar while planning errands and outings on a Sunday. Looking forward to the cooler weather and the mass mosquito die-off that will hopefully keep their population suppressed until late February at the earliest…

  4. Emily T

    I’m supposed to drive up to Dallas tomorrow to see family for the holidays. Would it be better to go early in the morning or leave in the afternoon after the worst of it passes?

  5. Gab

    As someone who was in Tuscaloosa on 4/27/11 this weather is terrifying. Should Houston be expecting the same severity of storms that happened in Dallas last night?

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