In brief: Houston really needs some rain, and in the next several days it is finally going to fall over the region. This post explains when, and how much. Beyond that, Houston’s humidity levels will remain elevated for several days, leading to sticky conditions. We still expect a nice fall front during the second half of next week.
Rainfall needed
Nearly all of the Houston region has fallen into a moderate drought in recent weeks, and we’re starting to see a severe drought for some locations to the northwest of the metro area. These conditions have been created by an exceptionally dry September and October, and much of our region has received no rain in more than five weeks, and very little in the last eight weeks. This dry weather has coincided with a period of mostly hot and sunny days, leading to very dry soils.
We have needed rainfall and finally, over the next several days, we are going to get some rain as a weak front sags into Houston, stalls, and disturbs the atmosphere. The forecast models have trended a little bit wetter over the last day, so we now expect most of the region to pick up 1 to 2 inches of precipitation through the weekend. This won’t completely end our drought, but a little November rain goes a long way with shorter days and cooler weather on the horizon.
Tuesday
Rain is unlikely today, but conditions will help set up a wetter second half of the week. We’ll see partly to mostly sunny skies, with high temperatures in the mid- to upper-80s. Southeasterly winds will blow at 10 to 20 mph, with gusts up to 30 mph, and this will herald increasing atmospheric moisture levels. A few coastal showers will be possible later today or tonight, but overall rain chances remain low. Temperatures tonight will only fall into the mid-70s for most of Houston, with higher humidity levels.
Wednesday and Thursday
These days should bring the most elevated rain chances, with much of Houston seeing a better than 50-50 likelihood of precipitation. Showers on Wednesday are likely to start during the mid- to late morning hours and chances will remain high through most of Thursday. To be clear, these are unlikely to be strong storms that lead to flooding, but should typically be more moderate showers. But we may well see some thunderstorms embedded in the showers. Highs both days will be in the low- to mid-80s.
If you’re concerned about Halloween weather, most of our available modeling indicates that rain showers should taper off somewhat by Thursday afternoon or evening. We’ll have a better handle on this in tomorrow’s forecast, where there is more high-resolution guidance available. But for now, I’d anticipate cloudy conditions on Thursday evening, with temperatures in the upper 70s and plenty of humidity.
Friday, Saturday, and Sunday
Partly sunny skies, trending toward mostly sunny, will prevail through the weekend. Look for high temperatures, generally, in the low- to mid-80s. We’ll definitely see the possibility of showers each day, although chances for most locations will be 50 percent or less. Humidity levels remain high throughout the weekend, so nights will stay sticky.
Next week
This pattern continues into the first half of next week, with highs in the 80s, and at least some low-end rain chances. At some point I expect to see a fairly robust cold front, but whether that’s on Wednesday or Thursday I don’t yet have confidence. However, I have to tell you, if we could get a combination of healthy rain showers this week, and a very much fall-like front next week, I’d be feeling pretty good about our weather here in Houston.
<< I’d be feeling pretty good about our weather here in Houston.>>
Well, at least until May.
May? Houston weather usually becomes unbearable sometime in March.
When I moved to Texas, I thought people here were tough. Weather in the 80s or low 90s in March is not “unbearable”. People here are too soft.
It’s just the soft transplants. Natives love it
I’m a native and I only hate Jun, July and August I’ve been here 48 years and each year that goes by I realize I am not cut out for the humidity that accompanies the heat. Call me soft and that’s ok but it’s just gross. 🙂
Lived here my entire life, and that’s the problem. I have too much Scottish/English blood in me. If it’s in the 80’s, I might as well be on fire.
correct, it’s so dumb to expect the south to be cool
Nothing sadder than being a fake tough guy on the internet.
110+ Fahrenheit? pfft, I used to live inside a volcano and this is nothing but a chilly breeze. Come back and talk to me when the temp is over 1000 Celsius, bunch of pansy-ass.
🤣😂🤣
Did you move here from California or something? Most locals would agree that it doesn’t really get hot until the second half of May and “unbearable” not until July. Even this past month, while warmer and drier than usual, was still pretty comfortable in my opinion.
Probably rounds third base like Stanton
Houston usually has it’s first 90 degree day in March, along with the associated humidity. Yep, those conditions are unbearable IMO. That usually signals the start of indoor HVAC season for me.
It rained for about 2 minutes last night in Fort Bend Co, so I officially declare the drought over!!
We got sprinkles and some thunder in Manvel LOL! It was great
It RAINED out here in Magnolia at 10:08pm! I thought, “what is that noise?” and walked outside … it was RAINING … for about 20 minutes.
I checked the radar and there was this tiny rain cloud only over our immediate area. Very atrange!! But it was a good sign.
Probably the HAARP blimp hovering right over you bringing your very focused area some relief from the skies.
Our 1 of the 2 lonely months of spectacular weather is being hijacked; I hope our splendid October weather appears early November and lasts a bit into December.
Of course all the best rain is going to be east of where I live as usual. 🙄
According to channel 13 high temperatures are still going to be in the mid 80s with lows only in the mid 60s next Wednesday and Thursday. Hopefully they are wrong because that is not Fall weather especially for early November.
I shopped around and TWC has some beautiful temps forecasted beginning on the 8th, 73/51, 71/52, etc. Sweet spot temps for me.
The TV guys just repeat whatever the latest run of the GFS (American) model tells them. (Your phone app does the same thing) Yesterday afternoon’s run didn’t have the front on it within the 10 days so the weather guys didn’t put it on TV.
The timing of next week’s cold front has been dancing around a little bit on all of the big weather models, but almost all of the runs of all of the ensembles show a very good front coming through anywhere between Thursday and Saturday of next week. They’ll start to tighten up in a few days and then we’ll know the exact timing for sure by the end of the weekend.
…all sounds good to me except the humidity of course.
Down here in Thompsons we had a brief downpour for about 15 seconds last night around 8:00. It was very loud on the roof (sounded like the hurricane, TBH) and was enough to send water through the downspouts for a few minutes afterwards.
And then it was gone.
That same rain cloud came by Copperfield about 9-ish!
Will the fall temps be here to stay?
Given the past observations of our pesky climate, probably not. We get a few days of cooler refreshing air and then the winds always shift right back out of the warm muggy Gulf as the cool high pressure systems shift eastward. Many times near or on Thanksgiving, it is warm and sticky with highs in the 80s and lows in the 70s.
We actually had to turn on the windshield wipers for about ten minutes last night! Sprinkles of rain!
Last night I looked outside around 10PM and thought my teak patio table looked odd…it was wet! Checked radar and a small but substantial shower (yellow and dark green on radar) passed right over our home…what a thrill!
Sounds like Thursday’s rain might ease up in time for trick-or-treating. Guess we better pick up a little more candy! I love the in-depth info we get here. I have shared the site with everyone in our family so they can get your emails. KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK!