The big picture for our weather during the last two days of 2020 remains the same: A slow-moving front will approach Houston, but likely stall west of the metro area. This will make for a stormy period from Wednesday afternoon into Thursday afternoon before conditions clear up heading into the new year. The first few days of 2021 should be clear and cool for the Houston area.
Wednesday
It’s mostly cloudy and humid this morning, with temperatures only falling into the low- to mid-60s for much of the region. For today, southerly winds will be gusty, perhaps as high as 20 mph. High temperatures later today will climb into the mid-70s, and we’ll start to see some scattered showers later this morning. The approaching front will be a larger driver of storms, and where it stalls will determine which areas see the heaviest rainfall during the overnight hours. For now, it seems the front will stall just west of Harris and Montgomery counties. Rain chances will increase during the afternoon and especially overnight hours.
Thursday
With the front stalling just west of Houston, our region is likely looking at another warm night, in the 60s, and a humid day. With the perturbed and moist atmosphere, rain chances will persist through much of Thursday afternoon, with widespread totals of 2-3 inches west of Interstate 45, and 1-2 inches for areas east of Interstate 45 between now and then. Finally, the front will shove through the area on Thursday afternoon, and this should bring an end to precipitation by sunset, or shortly before. Dry, westerly winds will follow the front’s passage, with temperatures dropping into the 40s as midnight approaches.
New Year’s Day
We’re expecting a cool and clear day, with highs in the upper 50s, and westerly winds at 5 to 10 mph. Lows will drop to around 40 degrees on Friday night.
Saturday and Sunday
The weekend looks sunny and fine, with highs in the upper 50s on Saturday, and lower 60s on Sunday.
Next week
We should see a warming trend next week, with highs perhaps reaching the 70s by Tuesday or so. Another front may be in the cards by around next Thursday, although overall confidence in the models is low. Regardless, rain chances after New Years’ Eve will remain low until that time.
Where is the front bringing rain coming from???
We’re in Galveston. Will rain start here first???
The way I understand the forecast, the rain will be coming from the west.
Look at the “NAM model forecast” above. You can see the front as a blue area moving in from the NW, which is typical. Notice that Galveston is far to the southeast. That means the front reaches Galveston last. This is not always an accurate predictor of where the rain will start, but in a winter front situation, Galveston is usually last. I would refer you the weather.com “hourly” forecast, where you can see exactly when the rain is predicated to start and end in your specific location.
predicted (typo)