Summer laughs at Fall, kicks its butt

As this site mentioned on Friday, Houston faces an abnormally warm, summer-like week. But does it have to be this warm? On Sunday highs topped out at 97 degrees at Bush Intercontinental Airport, coming to within a couple of degrees of setting a high temperature for the day. More of the same, I am afraid, is on the way for the rest of the work week.

Today through Wednesday

Alas, we’ve fallen back into a typical summer-time pattern for the region. That is to say high pressure is dominating over much of middle America, including the state of Texas. This is going to push down rain chances (we’ll probably only see a few isolated showers along the sea breeze this afternoon), and drive up temperatures. Highs will climb into the mid-90s or, as we saw Sunday, possibly the upper 90s. The National Weather Service says it might even have to issue a heat advisory for today or Tuesday.

Ridiculous, I know. Some drier air may work its way into the region from the northeast by Tuesday or Wednesday, which should bring down the humidity a tad, and it will allow nighttime temperatures to fall back into the mid-70s for most of Houston. But let’s face it, we’re all going to sweat like it’s still August, as as we get closer to the end of September that’s no fun at all.

Thursday and Friday

High pressure should weaken some, allowing temperatures to fall back into the lower 90s. The biggest question is the evolution of a low pressure system in the upper atmosphere, which could be a rainmaker for this weekend—or not. Depending on its movement we could see some rain showers by Friday Night Lights, but it’s too early to have any definitive sense of whether that will actually happen.

Saturday and Sunday

The forecast for this weekend is similarly uncertain. While I’m reasonably confident that temperatures will fall back to around 90 degrees, I’m not ready to have anything definitive to say about rain chances. My best guess would be some scattered showers during the late morning and early afternoon hours.

And Fall?!?

The Autumnal Equinox comes on Thursday, but there remains no sure sign of fall yet as summer dominates. Some members of the European model ensemble want to bring a cold front through in about week or so, but the GFS doesn’t have the same signal, and the main European model keeps things fairly warm for late September. So while the cold front watch is definitely on, EmoGeo still offers us this official forecast for its timing.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Posted at 6:20am CT on Monday by Eric