After a prolonged dry spell, rains returned to Houston on Sunday. For some areas such as northwest Houston, rain totals runneth over with 4 to 6 inches. For other areas, including parts of southeast Houston, just a few drops fell. Probably the bigger news is that we’re now likely transitioning toward a wetter period after an extremely dry month. We’re also going to need to watch for a potentially rainy Memorial Day weekend.
Monday
Like on Sunday, atmospheric moisture levels remain pretty high, and enough instability remains that we’re likely to see widespread showers again later this morning as temperatures rise into the 80s. I don’t think accumulations will be as high as on Sunday, but we’ll definitely need to watch out for a few heavy showers. Temperatures probably will remain in the upper 80s with lots of clouds. I’d expect any remaining showers to die off this evening with the loss of daytime heating.
Tuesday through Friday
For now these days look mostly similar, and we’ll have to see if there are any big differences as we get closer. But the overall setup remains the same, with high pressure encroaching upon the region. As a result I think we can expect partly sunny days, with high temperatures in the low 90s. Some scattered rain showers will be possible during the afternoon, along the sea breeze, but overall rain chances should remain fairly low.
Memorial Day Weekend
We’re watching the potential for heavy rain next weekend, but at this point we have more questions than answers. The upper-level pattern of high pressure over the Rockies, and then a separate ridge over the US East Coast, opens up the southern United States to a plume of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. Right now chances are that most likely will occur in Louisiana, but it certainly could affect Texas as well.
At this point we’re not particularly concerned about any “tropical” characteristics, which is to say we don’t think this will be any kind of organized tropical storm or hurricane. For Houston, the forecast outlook for the weekend calls for a moderate chance of rain—perhaps 20 to 50 percent for Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. However depending on what happens, rain chances could be quite a bit higher. The bigger concern, for now, appears to be over Louisiana where there likely will be heavy rainfall.
We’ll be tracking it for you.
All the weather guessers missed the forecast by a mile regarding the heavy rains.
Well Eric and Matt did say last week that areas North and NW of Houston could get 2 inches, depending on . . . .
Remember that famous Yogi Berra quote, “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”
They are scientists but it’s a very inexact science. You are right that the forecast was blown by the National Weather Service, and their “forecast discussion” Sunday morning gave absolutely no clue of even the possibility of heavy rain in the Houston area, mentioning only the possibility of storms in the Bryan/College Station region. Yet we got 2.66″ in the Champions area, had a little league game rained out with surprised players and spectators getting drenched, and to top it off our we lost our power for a couple of hours. Hopefully yesterday will act as another datapoint that they can use to improve future forecasts.
The Katy area was dry all day until around 6pm. Any rain south of I-10 got dumped on us in one chunk, over the course of 30mins – 1 hour. Not a half-day or day-long soaker like the north side of the area.
We in Houston just LOVE to hear about an amorphous chance for heavy rains on Memorial Day a week out, don’t we? No nerves around that, I’m sure.
2015 Memorial Day Flood, 2016 Tax Day Flood, 2017 Harvey…NO more please in 2018…. I am about ready to escape to Montana and and return sometime in October or November …. UGH!!!!
Time to evacuate to Katy!
Does a 20% chance of rain mean that there’s a 20% chance that it will rain or does that mean that 20% of the area will receive rain?
Here’s the National Weather Service explanation. “Probability of precipitation” is a combination of the probability of rain and the extent of coverage of the forecast area:
https://www.weather.gov/ffc/pop
Example: If the NWS thinks there’s a 50% probability that 80% of the forecast area will receive measurable rain during the forecast period, then the probability of precipitation is:
.50 x .80 = 40%
“We’re also going to need to watch for a potentially rainy Memorial Day weekend.”
Fewer things in this world make me as nervous as heavy rainfall possibilities on Memorial Day now.
UGGGhh, Have an outside graduation ceremony Friday evening, 20%? So you’re saying there’s a slight chance of showers in the SE side? 🙁
Currently my weather apps are saying rain today, tomorrow, and Friday and Saturday. Any thoughts on how likely rain will be on Friday? Also a post about this hurricane season would be appreciated.
Please include more of Montgomery County in your rain accumulation maps.