I will get to the outlook for later this month in a minute. Let’s start with today.
TODAY
It’s a wonderfully cool start to the morning, with temperatures in the low 50s across most of the Houston area. We’ll have another dry, pleasant day with highs in the low 70s. Enjoy the splendid fall weather!
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY
Beginning tonight we’ll see a return flow of more moist air from the Gulf of Mexico, allowing highs to rise into the upper-70s on Tuesday, and low-80s on Wednesday. Additionally Tuesday night’s low temperatures should fall only to around 70 degrees for much of the metro area. Blech! But it won’t last.
A cool front will move through Houston sometime on Wednesday, likely during the afternoon hours. There’s a chance of rain with the front, but the severe conditions will likely remain off to the northeast of Houston. I expect we’ll see a quick round of showers, if anything, with the front.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY
Cooler air will move into Houston over the course of several days, keeping highs on Thursday into the weekend to 70 degrees, if not below, and holding overnight lows in the low 50s. Both Thursday and Friday should be mostly sunny, nice fall days.
WEEKEND
How does the weekend look? At this point Saturday looks to be decent but there may be a decent chance of showers on Sunday. We’re not looking at any kind of washout, but I don’t expect the entire metro area to be sunny this weekend.
THANKSGIVING
For awhile seasonal forecast models have indicated the last week of November and first week of December will be particularly cold. For example, here’s the CFSv2 model’s outlook for the period of November 26 through December 1.
Note those temperatures are in Celsius, so the model is forecasting average highs and lows to be 8 to 12 degrees below normal. NOAA, with its climate outlook for the same period, agrees. In the next several days we’ll begin to see how the global forecast models, which use different techniques, forecast conditions for this period. I tend to have low-confidence in seasonal models, but in this case the weather patterns seem to be shaping up to favor a cooler Thanksgiving weekend.
Although I do not think we will see freezing conditions out, there’s definitely a chance the Thanksgiving holiday weekend will feel … a lot like Christmas.
Eric, have I told you lately how grateful I am to you for your knowledge and excellent presentation of “just the facts ma’am”!!!!!! Thank you, thank you, thank you!!! Have a great week!
Thanks for the kind words! You have a great week as well.
I 2nd these sentiments.
I had organized an outdoor sporting event for this past weekend that a little rain wouldn’t wash-out, but severe storms would have forced cancelled. Thanks your no-nonsense, accurate reporting I was able to keep all those involved marching to the event. We had a great day on Saturday, if not a little windy and just a smattering of rain in the afternoon.
That is awesome to hear, and I’m glad you were able to pull it off!
“Cooler air will move into Houston over the course of several days, keeping highs on Thursday into the weekend to 70 degrees, if not below, and holding overnight lows in the low 50s. Both Thursday and Friday should be mostly sunny, nice fall days.”
After this summer, all I can say is “about freakin’ time”.
Hoping for a snow or two this winter.
There will be plenty of snow in the Chicago area, go have at it.
I have to say, Sunday was the most magnificent day this entire year!!! Can we please have more please, sir? Driving with the top down was beyond delicious!!
I look forward to reading the future weather pattern, through your comments on this new website Eric, you’re always on the mark! Thanks for this new site.
So glad this blog is no longer on the old Chron. Seems I have many issues pulling up stories from there these days, always freezes up on my laptop or my ipad.
BUT, I am looking forward to some nice cool weather, and wouldn’t mind if it got downright cold for Thanksgiving, will feel holiday-ish.
Thanks Bruce.