Good morning. After parts of the Houston region received a decent soaking on Labor Day, the region has one more passable chance of rainfall today before the high heat returns through the weekend. And after that? Well, after that I think we’re done with 100-degree temperatures for awhile, and perhaps even for the entirety of 2023, although I’m not ready to stipulate that yet.
Tuesday
The overall setup today, in terms of rainfall, is similar to Monday. There is plenty of moisture and a decent amount of lift to promote showers and thunderstorms. However, a capping inversion should be a little more pronounced today, and that may limit coverage. The bottom line, I think, is that areas along and east of Interstate 45 probably have about a 50 percent chance of rainfall, and areas to the west about 30 percent.
For the most part these will be quickly passing storms, so don’t expect significant accumulations. Temperatures will depend on the extent of rainfall coverage, but generally we can expect highs to reach the upper 90s with partly to mostly sunny skies. Winds will be light, out of the south. Lows tonight will drop to around 80 degrees.
Wednesday
Skies will be sunny, and most of the area will see temperatures of around 100 degrees. Rain chances aren’t going away entirely, but we’re looking at chances probably on the order of 10 to 20 percent. Winds will be light, out of the southeast.
Thursday and Friday
Who is ready for the return of the ridge? The answer, I realize, is almost no one. But high pressure will indeed build back over the are during the end of the week. This will produce highs of around 100 to the low 100s. This won’t quit be the stultifying heat we saw earlier this summer, but it’s still going to be really, really hot.
Saturday and Sunday
The heat continues, with highs of around 100 degrees each day. However as the high pressure system eases westward it will introduce some slight rain chances, perhaps 20 percent, each day. Skies, for the most part, should be sunny however.
Next week
Hey Eric, didn’t you mention the “end of the worst summer ever” in the post’s title? Well, yes I did. And it wasn’t clickbait, I promise. The reality is that after the surge of heat to end this week, our pattern should shift to a slightly more moderate one that will feel a bit more like late summer. That is to say, for most of next week, we probably will see highs top out in the mid-90s—or even lower if we see the development of some afternoon showers. Which will be possible. The bottom line is that we’re probably looking at a little bit less sunshine, a little bit less heat, and possibly a little bit more rainfall. It’s not fall, but after this week, I think we can close the door on extreme heat for the summer of 2023. Small victories, right?
Hurricane season
Check back on the site around 10 am for a post on what to expect for the remainder of the Atlantic hurricane season, with a focus on Texas.
Huzzah on the “end of the worst summer ever” headline. It may be still premature to hang up the “Mission Accomplished’ banner but we can get it out of figurative storage and dust it off.
No matter what the Death Heat Ridge wants to do, it cannot resist the Earth’s axis moving as we change seasons so its reign will have to end. Or, at least, be banished for a few months.
It’s never too early for “Mission Accomplished”.
Eric, need sunshine to check grammar or a spellchecker for your articles. Lol
………”pressure will indeed build back over the are during the end of the week. This will produce highs of around 100 to the low 100s. This won’t quit be the stultifying heat we saw earlier”
Your English teacher would be disappointed. lol
Well tha’ last day of the year Houston has recorded a 100° Fahrenheit high or more is around the middle of October, maybe October 13th to be exact.
It’s been tough, but the worst summer ever award still goes to 2011 in my books–at least experientially. Drought leading to difficulties finding hay and feed, leading to being evacuated for wildfires here at Swede Farm, ultimately resolving only with the loss of 20% of our livestock due to metabolic crashes brought on by the one-two-three punch of heat, feed inconsistencies, and wildfires.
You must have taken off the summer of 2011.
Didn’t even get measurable rainfall, so we’re quickly approaching 60 days of no rainfall. Got cracks big enough to swallow golf balls and iphones over here. Hopefully today is better. Getting tired of having to stay up late to water within the water restriction hours.
Funny thing though, in spite of its water restrictions, the city has had a leak pouring water at Hazard and Welch. It’s been there for weeks, and the city knows about it (marked with a blue flag), but just lets it run on and on, but wants YOU to conserve water. Several other city leaks as well, on w. 12th, Dryden, W.18th at Bevis.
I am with those remembering the summer of 2011 as worse than this one. I’m thinking specifically of the mass tree die-off, which we seem to have avoided so far.
There are definitely trees dying off, especially up in the Kingwood area and around Lake Houston. While probably not to the significance that was seen in 2011 and the years after, there will be trees continuing to die off over the next couple of years and enough damage has been done.
The Palm trees near me are dying! I think this year was just as bad as 2011, maybe in different ways.
I think they are referring to the heat. Meteorological Summer ended on August 31 and we bested the heat record of 2011 by a tenth of a degree. The drought was worse in 2011 though bucause we actually had decent rains in June of this year and little in 2011.
More than 340 trees died in Memorial Park in 2011 but many of those trees were replaced with young trees (I’d assume they are more drought tolerant than an older tree?) so I don’t think it’s apples to apples to 2011. I personally had to cut down two 55 year-old water oak trees in my yard this month — costing me $3,500 in addition to the ridiculous City of Houston water rates costing me $400/month the three months I spent trying to keeping them alive — so I’ve personally lost trees this year I did not lose in 2011. Memorial Park has had only 0.28″ of rain in the last 60 days; in my area (Timbergrove), we’ve had a scant 0.04″ of rain in 60 days (verified on harriscountyfws.org) with historically hot temperatures. There will be many, many trees that die and have to be removed this year but we likely need to get out of this horrific heat dome before the full scope of the damage can be assessed.
I went for a run in Memorial about a week ago and most of those young trees are dead or dying. Same thing in my neighborhood. Anything young/un-established died off. Time to plant some cactus or juniper.
If some guy comes along and sticks knives in you really deep and then later comes back and only pushes the knife in a short distance, would he then say, it isn’t so bad now, is it? If so, I think that his name would be Eric.
I just wanted to remind everyone of an excellent website – harriscountyfws[dot]org – where you can zoom into your neighborhood and see the rainfall totals, instead of relying on the “official” report at the airport.
That is a good site. Checked it yesterday and the entire inner loop was bone dry. West, NW, and far SW Houston were the only lucky ones.
At this point, I’d be happy with an overcast (not just cloudy) day with a breeze!
No rain for us yesterday. Again. 60 days and counting…I’m almost fascinated to see how long this ridiculous streak can go.
No rain in Timbergrove yet again; 60 days and counting per my observations (and verified on the harriscountyfws.org site). It’s not going to cool down here for at least another 45 days (the ground is too hot at this point). What a miserable, miserable season this has been in Houston.
It may be time to talk about a new climate for Houston Texas in your eye wall blog. I think readers will be more receptive. When trees die, it’s all of sudden like. They don’t let you know they’re dying. We thought 2011 was a one-off but between wild hard freezes in 2021 and 2022 and this 60 day no rain drought plus triple digits…seems to be more than just a 3 year La Niña. Certainly the new things I plant will need to be different.
Wow, half an inch of rain fell here Monday. It’s good school was out, otherwise they would have cancelled classes because of the extreme weather event.
At least the kids had a chance to go outside and see what rain felt like.
The heat is worse in 2023, the drought was worse in 2011–so far. But this year’s drought still has a chance to beat 2011, I’m sorry to say. At my house we’ve had 1/100 of an inch since July 7.
winds today were steady and punishing.
I was wondering if you could comment to your readers regarding the status of trees around town. Property owners need to invest in trimming, pruning, etc. I’m afraid lots of people are going to get hurt plus property damage. You could even have an arborist weigh in. Many trees in really bad shape. Overgrown to begin with and now drooping heavy and brown. Thank you!
This is no time to prune trees, they are suffering enough without the stress of damaging them more.
What makes this summer stand out the most is how fast the drought intensified. The fact that we went from no drought at all in early June straight to D3 and D4 by late August is truly mind boggling. It usually takes many months of low rainfall to reach the D4 drought category. The relentless heat definitely sped up the process for sure. For a summer that started of so mild, it turned very hostile so quickly. I never thought this would have been the summer that truly challenge the 2011 summer. Most areas beat the infamous August 2011 this year. However at the Bay City and the Angelton airport, this summer as a whole was just a smidgeon cooler than the summer of 2011. Like literally a fraction of a fraction. The June through August mean temp for Angelton was 0.6 degrees cooler than 2011 while Bay City was just a measly 0.1 degrees behind the 2011 summer. Yeah I could really tell the difference. Also in 2011 the coastal counties were in D4 for over 6 months before drought relief finally arrived in December of that year. It seems like 2011 is still the leader when it comes to hostile weather, but this year has definitely been it’s own version of insane. And it’s not over yet. Houston may top out at most 100 degrees in a year before this month is over. Bay City and Angelton did. I live in Brazoria County so that’s why I am mentioning the coastal areas specifically.
These summers are awful. I remember when I was young September was actually a Fall month for the most part. No more. September is a summer month now as is at least half of October. 😑
I’ve lived in the greater Houston area for all my 56 years and it’s something I’ve definitely noticed as well, used to be able to at least look forward to some moderation in daytime highs by around the middle of September. Sure, there would be the occasional heat wave early in the month, but for the most part there was a better than even chance of getting some pleasant early fall weather. The last several years I’ve given up hope for any decently cooler weather until the second or third week in October, and even that’s not entirely certain.