If it’s almost the end of the month, that means Eric and Matt have once again scrambled to answer your most urgent questions. And given the busy weather month we’ve had in May, this edition of our Q&A is particularly timely. Got your own queries? Hit the Feedback button in the blog’s sidebar, respond here with a comment on hit us up on our many, many social network feeds: X, Facebook, Instagram, Threads, Mastodon and Bluesky. We’re everywhere, and now that includes LinkedIn!
–Dwight
Q. I feel like y’all are being TOO underwhelming. I definitely get not overhyping the weather. Which is absolutely why I started following you. But the last three storms you’ve underhyped and I was not prepared. I’d rather be over prepared than under. I didn’t at all expect the insanity that Oak Forest got on [May 16]. Thank goodness my cousin texted me to take shelter minutes before the storm hit. Please consider a middle ground.
A. This isn’t a question. Next one, please.
Just kidding. It’s a fair comment. The reality is that just as we don’t ‘over-hype’ the weather we also try not to ‘under-hype’ the forecast. Matt and I really are trying to simply be as right as we can be. You mentioned under-hyping the last three storms. That’s not true. On May 13, we predicted significant hail could accompany strong thunderstorms as they moved through the Houston area. Some areas, we said, may see hail as “large as an apple.” In reality, no one saw much, if any hail that day. I realize that pointing out how we missed on another forecast is perhaps not the best defense of our record. But my point is that we do not actively seek to under-hype storms. We are striving, always, for the middle ground you espouse. Some days, however, it’s damn hard to find.
I’m also sorry you felt unprepared for the derecho that slammed Oak Forest and other parts of Houston. We wrote about that recently, and some of the learnings we are taking away from it.
–Eric
Q: During the recent extraordinary Houston area (and beyond) weather phenomenon, is there any consideration that “microbursts” were present?
A: Yes, in our post about derechos, we noted that basically, they’re gigantic bursts of straight-line winds. In a sense, you could probably refer to a derecho event almost like a macroburst, which is wind damage on a scale greater than two and a half miles long. In reality, within this complex storm, there were probably a mix of macrobursts and smaller-scale microbursts, in addition to a couple tornadoes. We did not exactly see uniform damage across the area, but clearly some neighborhoods were harder hit than others. The more meaningful answer is that it’s all semantics in a situation like that, and the widespread damage is damage.
–Matt
Q. This storm has sobered us for what we are in for this hurricane season. How do you prepare? What do we need to keep in stock? What food should we store up?
A. Whoa, hurricane season officially starts Saturday! Fortunately, it doesn’t look like things will be insane right out of the gate. But there’s no doubt it’s going to be a busy season. The most important thing you can do right now is understand your vulnerabilities. Is your home at risk of storm surge because you live near the coast, and at a low elevation? Are you at risk of inland flooding? Is your home built to withstand hurricane-force winds, i.e. does your roof have hurricane clips? Are you willing to go without electricity for a week or three in September? All of these questions are important to determine in what circumstances you would evacuate. And after you understand when you would evacuate, you should make a plan for where you would go, what you would take, and how you will get there.
More generally, I find the preparation section on the Ready.gov website to be useful in making plans for an evacuation or to ride out the storm.
–Eric
Q: Is there any connection between the kind of intense spring weather we’ve been having and how hot the summer will be? Or are we most apt to have a drought when spring weather is severe?
A: The simple answer is not really. If you look at enough meteorological variables, you can find loose correlations among a lot of things. But correlation does not always (or often) mean causation. The best proxy to an “intense” spring may be storm reports in Harris County. If I take the five busiest years prior to this one from March through May, I can find 2007, 2019, 2020, 2023, and 2009 as my analogs. Combined, you get the map here:
So yes, those active springs have led to hot summers on net. 2023 was our hottest summer on record, 2019 was the fifth hottest, 2009 was the seventh hottest, and 2020 was the tenth hottest. But years like 2011, 2022, and 2010 are on the top ten list as well and saw few severe reports in spring. In terms of drought, it gets a little noisier with some dry years mixed in with wetter ones. So no real solid signal.
We expect a hot summer this year, but it’s not because of the intense spring thunderstorms. The combination of a very warm Gulf, a post El Niño warm hangover, climate change, and other factors buoy confidence in the hot summer expectation. Severe weather does not. But it does make for a fun exercise.
–Matt
Q: I’m a bit confused about the tornado warning terms used here in Texas. It seems like there is a different meaning to the terms than what I am accustomed to. Could you clarify the Texas tornado warning system in one of your posts? ( As a Midwestern Indiana girl, I learned that a tornado watch was when the conditions were likely for a tornado and a warning was when a tornado was spotted, heading your way and you needed to take cover immediately.)
A: The tornado watch vs. warning system is the same anywhere in America. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for possible tornadoes. A tornado warning means that forecasters have identified a likely tornado or an in-progress tornado via radar or visual observations from people in the field. In a nutshell, a watch means you should pay attention while a warning means you should take immediate action.
We get a lot of tornado warnings in the Houston area. Since 2020, there have been 136 of them issued by the NWS Houston office. The typical tornado we get here is a little different than what you see in the Plains or Midwest. Our tornadoes here are most often quick spin ups in squall lines (what we call QLCS tornadoes) or brief south to north moving supercells in the spring or fall ahead of cold fronts. Also, tropical systems. Harvey alone in 2017 led to over 140 tornado warnings. The QLCS and tropical tornadoes are a bit like playing whack-a-mole because they usually flare up and weaken rather quickly or sometimes look like they’re about to produce a tornado and do not. In the Midwest, you often have a little time to see them coming. Here, it’s just a different reality.
That said, after the derecho this month, I think that it’s apparent that folks should take these warnings seriously, even if they are inconvenient at times.
–Matt
Q. Can you please not use an apple as a comparison tool for the size of hail possible? Is it an gala apple? Is it a red apple? Is it a green apple? Is it a honeycrisp apple? Is it a pink lady apple? Is it some random miniature apple? Or is it ping pong to baseball sized?? 1.5 to 3.5 inches wide or 3.8 to 8.9 centimeters wide is easily accessible to most people. And fun fact the National Geodetic Survey (NGS) has updated their definition of a foot as of 2022 to better match international standards. An apple is completely subjective.
A. You forgot the most important argument in favor of apples. They’re delicious.
But just like my Granny Smith, you make a good point. The next time I’m writing a post on my McIntosh computer, and we’re expecting hail, I’ll try not to be so confuji in our terminology. Honey, I’ll try to be crisp in our language. Hope you find that apeeling.
–Eric
They also severely underplayed Harvey. I don’t blindly trust SCW’s forecasts anymore, they get it wrong just as much as anyone else. They have good intentions and partly it’s just the nature of weather, but their forecast is just one of many I’m looking at during storms.
You shouldn’t blindly trust ANYTHING. Weather is still a chaotic mess of probabilities bumping in to one another.
Using multiple sources is good, but all the meteorologists talk to one another as significant events become more probable. None of them could have predicted the intensity of the derecho because it was not predictable.
Also (and I genuinely ask) did ANYONE predict Harvey would do what it did? I didn’t think anyone did, but I could be wrong.
Living in Houston for over 40 years has taught me to expect the worst and hope for the best. My ideal situation is some eye rolling from my wife at over-preparedness.
This is absolutely not true. SCW nailed Harvey. They predicted days ahead of time that the storm would stall over the Houston area for days and bring catastrophic rainfall amounts with widespread flooding. They also predicted that this would not be a major wind event. That was true for Houston; as I recall, they didn’t quite get the last minute strengthening before in made landfall to the south. Was it worse than they predicted? Yes, but not by that much and they were the best forecast for Harvey by far.
This isn’t true at all. Eric and Matt called the major flood threat out long before Harvey hit. I remember the somber warning tone of their posts, which I’m sure are documented in this site’s archives. No need to make things up.
You’re certainly entitled to whatever you want to believe in regard to Harvey, but it is categorically untrue. Here’s an independent article about our work during the storm.
And of course I would encourage you to get forecasts from as many sources as possible.
I started following you guys during Harvey and have never looked back. I depend on SCW forecast for personal and work. I can’t understand why people are being so hard on y’all about last weeks storm. People are wild. You guys do a wonderful job and I tell everyone about SCW all the time.
The utter falsehood in your first sentence discredited anything you said after that. On the plus side, it made for a much quicker read!
Absolutely no way did they do this. I specifically remember them saying this (Harvey) is going to be very very bad and being emotional about it. They predicted the storm will stall and incredible amounts of rain will fall.
SCW provided a forecast with info that was available at the time. All Houston channels were showing models of doom, but weakening before making it to west side. Next thing you know a derecho came through. Models are a forecasting tool. Difference is how information is presented to public. SCW advises. Houston channels go beyond the facts, hype it for TV time. Justin Stapleton, example. SCW are looking out for Houston and surrounding areas. Honest sharing their knowledge. Would also like to share a big thank you to Frank Billingsley as he retires. Another whom is a trusted source. Thanks SCW.
I’m truly flabbergasted why some people think meteorologists can predict the INTENSITY of a storm. They’re trying their best. It’s up to YOU to prepare to the best of your ability.
I like the idea that they think the size of the hail will not be just as varied as apple sizes.
These are crazy times, but we didn’t know that when we scheduled our trip to North and South Dakota in the next couple of weeks. Do you have any insight into what we might expect between OKC and the Dakotas between now and 6/8?
To the person in Oak Forest, I hate to tell you this, but that is pretty typical. My parents bought their house brand new in 1950, and mother lived there until her death in 2012. White Oak Bayou has always had a tendency to back up and flood the area. Several years back, they actually dug out retention ponds to help alleviate the problem. Many many times I parked on high ground of a 7-elevan or fast food lot and waded home, to wait until the flood waters receded so I could do get my car. I do not remember any of the homes flooding though. At any rate, 1983 we were hit by tornadoes that plowed through Houston and Oak Forest was on the worst hit neighborhood list, BUT, there were no deaths in Oak Forest as there were in the other subdivisions. What was great was EVERYBODY got out and helped each other clean up. We had stacks of debris lining each side of the streets 6 feet tall. And the city picked up our debris first since it was readily accessible. And then, later on, we were hit by hurricane Alicia. So I’m kind of worried about a hurricane this year. Hopefully it won’t happen because I live south of Pearland, which is closer to the coast.
As for preparations, my husband came up with the idea to buy canned soup and rice or pasta. You mix the rice or pasta with the soup and you get a healthy and fulfilling meal. So every year, we stock up on soup and rice and pasta. GET IT NOW while the pickings are good. If you wait until a hurricane is in the Gulf, you’ll get stuck with picked over leftovers at the grocery. Go ahead and buy a case or two or three of bottled water. It never goes bad. Peanut butter is another good staple to have around. Make sure you’re stock with batteries and lanterns. The Coleman lanterns use the 6 volt batteries, so make sure you have those as well. Get some battery operated fans. They sold out in Houston after this last storm. We managed to find some in Alvin for our relatives still living in Houston. My mother used to save the plastic milk cartons, clean them out and put water in them, then freeze them in the freezer and keep them in the freezer for when the power went out. Make sure you have a well stocked medical kit with gauze, alcohol, neosporim, aspirin, advice, Tylenol, etc., and your prescription meds. If possible, keep at least $100 cash on hand, but you may need to keep up to $500. Find a really safe place for it. They recommend hiding it in the pantry or linen closet now to keep a thief from finding it. If you have a gun safe that’s bolted to the floor, even better.
💗
Matt’s answer to the question about “apple-sized hail” caused my response: “AAARRRGGGHHH!!!!”
Great job guys! And….I like all sizes of galas….but no hail pls…:)
Weather is hard to predict! It’s changes from one minute to the next. I live in Southern California and I receive your emails and read them especially during Hurricane Season. I rely on your information as my daughter lives in Houston. I am very grateful for the time you take to keep us informed. Keep up the good work!
I like your reply about the different sizes of apples used to depict the size of the hailstones
Just don’t start using a banana for hail scale. To quote Johnny Depp as Willie Wonka, “That would be weird.”
Your answer to the last question is the best!
Jumping on band wagon about apple response – loved it!!!
How funny. My wife is from Chicago and keeps saying the same thing that we have watch and warning backwards. She learned that a tornado watch was when the conditions were likely for a tornado and a warning was when a tornado was spotted. Being a lawyer, she’s rarely gets things backwards so maybe during the 80’s this was taught or shared on local weather news stations? Honestly I do prefer warning as a heads up to duck and cover.
You know, meteorologists really need to change “warnings” and “watches” to different terminologies! I noticed that every meteorologist is always explaining what they mean and what the difference is, between a “watch” and a “warning.” If you constantly have to explain all of this, then obviously, people don’t understand when they are in real danger! This is such a a simple thing to do and more lives would be saved!
https://www.nssl.noaa.gov/education/svrwx101/tornadoes/
What is the difference between a Tornado WATCH and a Tornado WARNING?
A Tornado WATCH is issued by the NOAA Storm Prediction Center meteorologists who watch the weather 24/7 across the entire U.S. for weather conditions that are favorable for tornadoes and severe weather. A watch can cover parts of a state or several states. Watch and prepare for severe weather and stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio to know when warnings are issued.
A Tornado WARNING is issued by your local NOAA National Weather Service Forecast Office meteorologists who watch the weather 24/7 over a designated area. This means a tornado has been reported by spotters or indicated by radar and there is a serious threat to life and property to those in the path of the tornado. A tornado warning indicates that you should ACT NOW to find safe shelter! A warning can cover parts of counties or several counties in the path of danger.
Seriously, I love you guys and think you are doing an excellent job. There is a lot more to this weather predicting than most of us realize.
The last 2 answers were great! SE TX tornadoes 🌪️ vs. elsewhere (& why we get alerts so often we can become numb to them, but shouldn’t), that was very informative!
And the last one was hilarious 😂🍏
Y’all are very kind and patient with all of the comments & responses, and have a great sense of humor (& reality). 😀 Thanks for all you do to help us stay as informed as possible.
Ha, ha love the apple comment!
Finally got powet back from yesterday’s storms. Thank y’all for the updates, the FAQs, and all the information. Summer here we come.
Curious to know how the NWS determines if a tornado occurred and categorizes it after the event? Is it based on eyewitness accounts, damage, etc?
How the NWS determines Wind Damage and Tornadoes: https://www.weather.gov/bgm/helpSurveys
https://www.nssl.noaa.gov/education/svrwx101/tornadoes/
4 days left in the HISD school year & the apple reply is PRICELESS. I love y’all so much-from the “dumbed down” explanations to the humor (aka Excitable Dog Index). You make my day & I love the Q&A posts the best. Thank you for your hard work!
You guys are the best and my first stop for weather every morning. Keep up the great work!
I do have a question; I’m not sure if this is the best place to put it:
I was wondering; my understanding of last year is we didn’t get any hurricanes because of the extreme heat we had all summer.
Are you able to predict whether something similar might happen this summer, and if so, what is the likelihood?
Thanks