There are two things I want to talk about before jumping into the forecast for this week—a forecast I would classify as not great, but far from terrible. To start with, I want to thank everyone who came out to our first Fall Day celebration at the Houston Botanic Garden on a gorgeous Sunday. We should get a final tally today, but I think 400 or 500 people came by to say hello, and it was just wonderful to meet you all.
Matt and I also want to say a huge thank you to Reliant, who went above and beyond to organize and support this event on short notice. Megan, Pat, and the events team there did a spectacular job of ensuring there were activities for kids, coffee and snacks, and finding the great location. It’s due to our long-term partnership with Reliant, now more than five years running, that we’re able to hold events like this.
If you were at the Fall Day event, you may have heard me announce what has been clear for awhile now—the 2022 Texas hurricane season is over. This is something we could have written last week, but it felt inappropriate to do so as Florida was getting slammed by Hurricane Ian.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30, but due to a variety of factors including a shifting jet stream at this time of year, it is rare for Texas to get struck by a hurricane after the end of September. This year, based on what we’re seeing in the tropics at present, should be no different. A freak storm is always possible, and we may see some tropical moisture at some point, but you should feel free to let your guard down. We made it!
Monday
I’m afraid this week won’t bring the same, absolutely splendid weather we saw at the end of September and early October. However, we’re not going back to full-on summer either. While the air will be more humid than last week, mornings and evenings will still be fairly pleasant.
High temperatures on Monday will reach the upper 80s under mostly sunny skies, with light winds out of the northeast at 5 mph or so. We may start to see some clouds higher in the atmosphere later today and tonight, and these will be related to Hurricane Orlene, a Category-2 storm in the Pacific making landfall in western Mexico today. Alas, we won’t see enough moisture from Orlene to bring much needed rainfall to our area. Lows tonight will drop into the mid-60s in Houston, with cooler conditions inland.
Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday
The story of the mid-week will be that of a slowly warming trend, with daytime highs rising from the upper 80s to 90 degrees, and overnight lows from the mid-60s to the upper-60s. However, in terms of humidity the dewpoints—a measurement of moisture in the atmosphere—are still going to remain in the 60s. What does this mean? Simply that while our air will feel more humid, it won’t be uncomfortably or oppressively so. Skies will be mostly sunny with, alas, very little chance of rain.
Friday, Saturday, and Sunday
Highs will be around 90 degrees this Friday, but at some point later in the day, or overnight, a weak front should push into the area. Don’t expect miracles from this one. For starters, it seems unlikely to produce any rainfall. But it should knock the humidity back some, and trim a few degrees off our daytime and nighttime temperatures. Honestly, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the 80s, this weekend should again be pretty nice.
I know you’re all wondering about rainfall. The bad news is that it’s still a ways off. The somewhat hopeful news is that, with the next front, which I would pencil in around October 13 or 14, the models do seem a little more bullish about rain chances. I would caution that this is 10 days out, so it lies at or just beyond the edge of our ability to predict. But I’m an optimist, so I’m saying there’s a chance …
On my way out I thanked the Botanical Garden staff for hosting. They said that over a 1000 people had attended. It was great to meet Eric, Matt, Maria and Hussein (sp?) and to reconnect with Dwight & Lee (both of whom I know from the early 90’s) and of course the weather was perfect
Can we have some thoughts about the next tropical wave, the one closer to us?
Awesome to see so many folks 😀 Thanks for coming out!!
A huge “thank you” to Reliant for sponsoring the Fall Day event – and it was great fun: for the weather; to meet Maria, Matt, and Eric in person; and to see the beautiful Houston Botanic Garden (well worth a whole afternoon).
I was both amazed and happy to see the phenomenal turnout and this was a great kickoff to an annual event (hopefully).
Had never been to the Houston Botanic Garden and it is a great addition to that part of town and the city in general. It has echoes of the McGovern Centennial Garden but, in many ways, better.
Does the tropical wave that appeared over the weekend, the closer one, have any similarity to hurricane Ian in terms of placement or conditions ?
Wow — can’t believe you guys convinced Dwight to dress up as the Armadillo. Texas Sized Kudos!
Eric, doesn’t it feel absolutely GREAT to call the hurricane season for our area over with for this year?!! I noticed years ago, after the 2nd or 3rd cold front, we no longer saw hurricanes coming into the Gulf. You diplomatically pointed out to me that it had more to do with the jet stream shifting down. And I remember the first time that you called it over, and the flak you got from other meteorologists. But, you were right to call it then, and you are right to call it now.
I grew up with a mother who pinned up the chart on the kitchen door and marked each track of every hurricane while fretting the hurricane months. She’ll be gone 10 years on Oct 21st, but those summer years tracking those hurricanes will be with me forever!
THANK YOU for taking away the hype!! You have no idea how grateful this makes me feel.
Thanks for the great update about the hurricane season! Do you have photos from yesterday’s event posted anywhere?
Sneaky Chernobyl and Dumb and Dumber references, well done.
WHILE TX HURRICANE season is done, what’s the hurricane season in general looking like?
They are going to have to change the name of “ARS Technica” to “Eric Berger Technica.” Check out Eric’s recent Hurricane and space related posts on this great technology site. https://tinyurl.com/4dwdcda7
Thank you for your update but until Dec 1, I just think Hurricanne season. I don’t start with the tuna salads, casseroles etc until at least mid November. I hope you are right and while the jet stream might be a little different has the great western current actually changed?
I remember as a foolish 20-something, new to Texas, going down to Galveston to experience Hurricane Jerry, which Google says October 15-16 1989. I remember I was watching a football game on Sunday when Neil Frank broke in and said a small hurricane would be landing on Galveston, so I hopped in my car and drove down there. That was the dumbest thing I’ve ever done, and though it was supposedly a minor hurricane, I spent a few hours on Seawall Boulevard thinking I was going to die.
Fall Day was lovely and it was marvelous to meet you all! You all are Houston heroes!