Summary: Houston will warm up for the next couple of days before a wet Friday is followed by colder weather this weekend. After we flirt with lows in the 30s on Sunday morning, however, temperatures will be on the upswing again. Does that mean the end of winter is at hand?
Is spring just ahead?
Just one week ago there was a lot of online chatter about another outbreak of the polar vortex bringing very cold weather to Houston. At the time we wrote about that a repeat of frigid weather was unlikely in Texas. Now, one week later we can definitively say it: Texas is not going to see another Arctic blast during the month of February.
In fact, after a flirtation with lows in the upper 30s this weekend, Houston may be done with very cold weather for this winter. Is that a guarantee? No. March can sometimes produce some winter surprises. But most likely we are about to move into a more spring-like pattern about one week from now. I’ll take a look at freeze possibilities for the rest of the season tomorrow, but they are fairly low at this point.
Wednesday
After a chilly start, conditions should warm nicely today, into the upper 60s. We should see mostly sunny skies through at least the morning hours before some clouds start to build this afternoon. Winds will be light, generally from the southeast. Lows tonight will be warmer under the influence of this southerly flow, and with clouds building in overnight. Expect temperatures to drop into the mid-50s in Houston.
Thursday
Skies will be clouded over on Thursday with light southeasterly winds. This will be a warmer and more humid day, with high temperatures in the mid-70s. Lows on Thursday night will drop to around 60 degrees.
Friday
This still looks like the day for widespread showers due to the presence of a coastal low pressure system and plenty of atmospheric moisture. The greater accumulations will be near the coast, with 1 to 3 inches possible in places like Matagorda Bay, 0.5 to 2 inches in Galveston, and lesser amounts further north. Rain will be possible starting early Friday morning throughout the day, evening, and overnight hours. This shouldn’t be a flooding issue, but it could be a nuisance for outdoor activities. Highs will be in the 60s.
Saturday
Saturday morning will be colder after a front blows in on Friday night, with cloudy skies and temperatures in the low 50s. It also looks quite breezy, with gusts above 30 mph. The good news is that any lingering showers should be ending as the Sun comes up or shortly after. By Saturday afternoon, with highs in the upper 50s, we could see partly sunny skies. Saturday night should be rather cold, with lows likely to drop to just below 40 degrees in Houston, and a bit colder further inland.
Sunday
This will be a fine winter day, with sunny skies and highs around 60 degrees. Winds look light. This may be some of the last really dry air we see this season. Lows on Sunday night will drop into the low 40s in Houston, probably.
Next week
Most of next week looks warmer, with highs in the 70s and lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. There should be a fair amount of sunshine and, as of this point, not a whole lot of potential for rainfall. As I mentioned, it will feel a lot like spring.
We may be at the end of very cold weather, but I expect cool/cold to stick around until the end of April.
Guessing your hunch is based on El Nino doing its thing…
My trees are already budding. Crazy. It’s rarely this early!
Nice 16th century Flemish painter picture.
the gulf of mexico needs to brush it’s teeth.
Enjoy the painting. It reminded me of three years ago this month me and my wife was bringing our boat across the Gulf from Florida to Kemah staying about 75-100 miles off shore. Doing the day you could not ask for more beautiful weather but for 3 nights in a row like clockwork a northern would blow through and we would experience winds of 55knots, and when I went to the aft of the boat to get a clear view of the waves, they were 12-15 ft.,this would last about 5-6 hours. My wife was a champ, me I kept my 5 gallon bucket below me. Never no rain, just some of the roughest water and wind I have experienced. As fast as it came,it would go and perfect still water, beautiful sky’s. Yes we enjoy the painting very much, thank you.
Happy St. Valentine’s Day! May your day be calm and your heart bright.
Last year we were already seeing highs in the mid 80s in late February. I hope that doesn’t happen this year. After last summer, we really needed a long sustained winter to help cool the gulf waters down some. Now this summer is probably going to be just as oppressively humid as last summer if not worse. I don’t want 3 months in a row of 110 plus degree heat index’s every day again. Hopefully we will be stuck under low pressure this summer instead of high pressure like last year.
high pressure helps keep the hurricanes away.