Good morning. The tropical system in the Caribbean Sea continues to show better signs of organization this morning, and will likely become a depression or Tropical Storm Ida later today or tonight. We continue to watch this system closely, and over the the last 12 to 24 hours most major models have trended east with their forecast. The most likely possibility now is that a strong hurricane comes ashore somewhere in Louisiana on Sunday or Sunday night. But we definitely cannot rule out impacts to Texas. Please find more information below.
Also, as you may recall, we launched a Spanish-language version of Space City Weather this week. At 11 a.m. CT today please join me, the editor of the new site, Maria Sotolongo, and Rolando Salinas from Reliant Energy to talk about why we’re doing this. The event will take place on our Facebook page.
Thursday
There are some scattered showers offshore this morning, and they should develop inland later this afternoon. This should yield perhaps a 30 to 40 percent chance of rain, but there will still be enough sunshine to drive temperatures into the mid-90s. Winds will be light, generally out of the east. The upper air pattern becomes more favorable for rain this evening, through the overnight hours, into Friday so there is about a 50 percent chance of showers tonight.
Friday
We expect fairly widespread showers on Friday morning, with the potential for some heavy rain to produce a quick accumulation of perhaps 2 inches for some locations. Showers should end from south to north during the late morning or early afternoon hours. Highs will likely reach about 90 degrees under partly sunny skies.
Saturday and Sunday
The overall fairly wet pattern should continue through the weekend, with partly sunny skies, highs in the low 90s, and perhaps 50 to 60 percent rain chances each day. The ultimate track of Invest 99L is going to have a lot to say about our weekend weather so any forecast now is very, very tentative.
Tropics
What we know is that Invest 99L is starting to become better organized, and should move into the Gulf of Mexico on Friday night or Saturday morning. After this time there is not much to hamper its organization—there is little dry air aloft, and wind shear is relatively low—and plenty of warm Gulf water for the system to work with. Our expectation is that the storm will become a hurricane, a possibly a major hurricane by later on Sunday as it approaches the Gulf coast.
So where will the storm go? That will depend on the extent of a high pressure ridge over the southeastern United States. Most of the model guidance now shows enough of a weakness in the ridge to allow the storm to travel more northeasterly, likely bringing it to the coast somewhere between the Texas-Louisiana border and Mississippi. Because 99L is likely to intensify fairly rapidly, this could facilitate a more northerly turn, which probably puts southeastern Louisiana under the biggest threat for now. The bottom line is that if you live in Louisiana, particularly the New Orleans area, there is a significant threat that a powerful hurricane will come to the coast in just a little more than three days from now.
As for Texas, we definitely cannot rule out direct impacts from this system. There are some scenarios in which a weaker storm cannot force its way north by influencing the ridge of high pressure. In this case the storm would turn more westerly, toward the Texas coast. There is enough uncertainty in the forecast to keep a close eye on the system. But at this point I would say we’re cautiously optimistic about the upper Texas coast, including Houston, being spared this weekend and early next week.
Matt or myself will have an update later this afternoon or evening.
Thank you!! I rely on you guys to not freak out for days on end. The information, no matter what it is, is helpful. I truly hope this thing isn’t horrible regardless of where it lands.
… I mean, you can freak out for days on end if you’d like. I’d rather not. 😉 Poor choice of grammar. I have Ike and Allison PTSD really badly and hate summer a lot.
coughHarveycough
Tropical weather is the number one reason I’m leaving Texas when I retire.
Gravy’s comment was out of line, but Texas is a big state. You want to flee the whole thing just because of what happens on the coast? True story, my boss is about leave for another job in MA. She cited hurricanes as one of her main reasons for moving up there. Henri just put the folly to that. I guess you could move to the Midwest and deal with devastating winter storms and tornadoes. Or out west and deal with fires and drought.
BHF I totally understand that desire. I have thought about it a lot myself. We’ll just have to see.
BHF, you and me both. Even -27 below and 3 feet of snow back in Chi-town is a breeze compared to flooding, toxic air and constant wondering if the state’s power grid will fail again.
I’ve had Middle Tennessee in my sights as a possible retirement destination one day, seems like I’ve seen BHF mention that area as a possible landing spot too. Seems they’re not immune to flooding in that part of the world either (and they’ve had major flooding happen more than once in that area the last few years, as I recall). No place is without its risks…though it is stressful having to keep tabs on the tropics this time of year.
Yes, that. But I didn’t have a bad personal experience with it like I did Ike and Allison. I will never forget those two.
Thanks so much for the updatee!
Thank you again! I only look at your thoughts and projections these days. The no hype approach the is so helpful!
The ridiculously expensive private weather service we use at work was forecasting (as of 3 AM) this thing to hit around New Orleans Sunday morning as a Cat 2. Our plant in the Golden Triangle is likely to see tropical storm force gusts.
You wonder why people continue to live in Louisiana.
I remember reading a few years ago frequent tropical weather was one of the reasons sited for the state being so poor, though political and business corruption was ranked as the #1 reason. When you keep having your infrastructure destroyed, it doesn’t help.
cited, not sited. How long until you retire? Many if us would like to know.
Lighten up, Francis.
This guy always has a complaint. Please retire as soon as possible.
Why is everyone talking badly about two of the best states, Texas and Louisiana? I have heard that Louisiana was the happiest state in the US, which is probably because it is poor and religious. Southern Louisiana is probably the wettest (lowland) part of the country (which I like). Would you rather go to states suffering from decades-long drought, wildfires, high taxes, crime spikes in their cities, or school closures? Other states have power grid problems too. Most of all, our great state and our eastern neighbor respect and love God.
Is it too late for me to buy a Texas&Louisiana (weathering the storm together) t-shirt? I would like one, but the site says fundraiser is ended.
However, insults do not make a worthy or effective defense of the South.
Never fails. Always a hurricane or a tropical storm on my birthday weekend.
Happy Birthday Mr. Gonzalez.
I don’t think you need to justify why you’re making a Spanish language version of the site. It makes complete sense when you think about it for more than 3 seconds.
Tropical update(s) really appreciated.
Thanks so much for the straight forward, no hype but wonderfully logical and scientific weather information! Oh and happy birthday Joshua Gonzalez! : )
Wow, cette tempête a l’air très mauvaise. Si vous êtes intelligent, vous prierez les tourbières.
Should Katy evacuate?
Katy funnies – not! – are years past “manager’s special” rank. But carry on if you wanna
If the storm (potential Ida) does end up to our east, somewhere in Louisiana, would that mean clear(er)/dri(er) weather than otherwise on Sunday? (Accounting for size and exact placement of the storm track.)
While I don’t wish our Louisiana neighbors any ill will, better this thing go there than here. After Ike, Rita, and Harvey, anything with a name or “organization” is just too nervewracking.
Let’s just stick to no-name afternoon thunderstorms. Oh, and happy birthday to Mr. Gonzalez (earlier in the thread).
That’s awesome that you’re providing this service in Spanish as well!
I don’t know what it is, but Hurricane’s just seemed to be DRAWN to the mouth of the Mississippi. Someone should really do a study. I never really worry for Houston unless the Hurricane goes through that little space between Haiti and Cuba. But now I have to watch my six as well because Harvey came up from the South, so breaks my theory a bit.
What is steering/controlling Ida?