Unofficial forecast for the Houston Marathon: Potentially very cold

Dear runners, how cold do you like it?

I must caution that we’re still nine days out from the start of the Houston Marathon, but whooboy right now we are setting up for cold conditions. Three of the major global models, the GFS, Canadian and European, all show a fairly strong cold front moving into Houston on the Friday or Saturday before the marathon, with race time temperatures in the low- to upper-30s. That’s right, I would not rule out freezing conditions at the run’s 7 a.m. CT start time Sunday.

This morning I spoke with Joe Bastardi, a meteorologist with Weather Bell whose forecast skills I respect, and he says when it gets cold like this the Canadian model does pretty well, and at this point its the coldest (see attached image). If the front has moved through I don’t think we will have to worry about rainfall, the big concern will be wind chill, even 10 mph at that temperature would make it feel like the 20s during the run.

The one big caveat is the timing of the front. Although the models have been consistent with bringing it through before the marathon, there’s still a decent chance it could slow down and come in later. If that happens race-day conditions would be warmer, with temperatures likely in the upper 40s or low 50s. But right now I’d say the front probably will have moved through.

Here, then, is my latest forecast for conditions on the starting line of the 2016 Houston Marathon.

Temperature

Race-time temperatures will be near normal (low- to mid-40s), or below normal (30s).

Confidence: Medium-High

Precipitation

If a cold front passes through on the Friday or Saturday before the Houston Marathon, conditions for the race should be dry. Still nine days out is a long way to go.

Confidence: Low-Medium

Winds

It is difficult to make any predictions about winds at nine days out, but right now I’d anticipate moderate winds, which would still make a cold morning very cold.

Confidence: Low

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