Warm this week, yes, but winter proper arrives by Monday

Good morning. It’s still warm out there, but winter — real winter for Houston — is finally in sight.

TODAY

It’s incredibly warm this morning in Houston. The record for a high minimum temperature today is 68 degrees, and this morning’s low was just 71 degrees. There’s a slight chance of rain this morning before skies clear out this afternoon and evening. We should see some sunshine and high temperatures could approach 80 degrees.

CHRISTMAS EVE

As some drier air moves in on Wednesday it will allow for some moderately cooler overnight conditions on Thursday morning, with lows at least 10 degrees cooler than today. However this won’t last as moisture comes charging back in from the Gulf of Mexico. This is unlikely to produce much rain, but it will set the stage for a wet holiday weekend.

CHRISTMAS DAY

Not your ideal holiday. Day starts out muggy, with lows around 70 degrees, and with highs in the mid- to upper-70s. Light, perhaps misting rain, will be possible throughout the day, with some isolated thunderstorms. Skies will be mostly cloudy.

WEEKEND

More of the same as Christmas. We’ll see continued mostly light rain with possibly some embedded thunderstorms.

 

For the most part I expect three-day totals to run under 2 inches for most of the Houston area, as can be seen in the rainfall accumulation forecast from NOAA shown above.

NEXT WEEK

Global models are in fairly good agreement on the arrival of a cold front sometime late on Sunday or early Monday.

 

This will bring much more customary weather for the end of December and likely at least the first week of January. We are talking about mostly sunny skies and, most days, highs below 60 degrees.