Good morning. Normal high temperatures for mid-November generally run in the low 70s for Houston, with overnight lows in low 50s. For much of the city—with the exception of some outlying areas far from the coast—we are going to run about 10 degrees above this through Sunday before our next robust front arrives. That’s OK if you like warm days, but bad news if you’re eager to wear a sweater.
Wednesday
A weak front has made it through most of the region and will limp off the coast later this morning. As the air dries out behind the front we should see our cloudy skies turn more sunny. Highs should reach into the low 80s today, but the night will feel more crisp thanks to the front. Expect lows to drop down to around 60 degrees for the city, with cooler temperatures inland, and a bit warmer closer to the coast. Winds will be out of the northeast at generally 5 to 10 mph.
Thursday and Friday
A generally northeast and then easterly flow should keep some of the humidity at bay, and as a result we can expect a pair of quite nice, sunny days. We should see highs in the low 80s, and with the dry air helping to drop overnight lows in the low 60s for most.
Saturday and Sunday
As winds shift to the southeast, we can expect rising humidity levels this weekend. Mostly sunny skies should help nudge daytime highs into the mid-80s, and Saturday night should be warmer for most, perhaps nearing 70 for some areas. Sunday should be mostly sunny again, but then a front will sweep through. Timing is still to be determined, but it probably will come through some time during the afternoon and overnight hours. The moisture profile with this front is not overly impressive, so I don’t think we’ll get the rains we need as it passes.
Next week
This week should definitely feel more fall like, with highs generally in the 70s, and lows in the 50s in Houston—and perhaps in the 40s for areas further inland.
Tropics
We’re still tracking Eta, Theta, and soon … Iota? Eta has become a Category 1 hurricane in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, but it should begin to weaken in the next 24 hours as it encounters more hostile wind shear. It will be a rainstorm, primarily, for Florida as it crosses the peninsula on Thursday and then begins to head toward the exits. (Yes, there finally is some confidence in the storm’s track). Theta seems unlikely to threaten major landmasses. When it forms in a few days, Iota most likely will track into Central America, and not reemerge as Eta did.
I don’t have even one Iota of patience left for this hurricane season. Be done!
Normally, when a storm is particularly bad, they retire that storm’s name; given that this is a Greek letter, Eta, is there any thought they might retire it?
I believe that the Greek letters don’t retire. But the storm would be known by the Greek letter and year, such as Theta 2020, to differentiate from any past or future storms with the same Greek designation.
I was curious about Matt’s comment on twitter that the amount of heat in the basin provides a ceiling for the ultimate number of tropical storms / hurricanes that can occur in a season. This seems to provide a certain “big picture” understanding of weather that I’m not too familiar with.
Any suggested further reading (appropriate for lay audiences) on the topic? (I will also do a duck-duck-go search on the topic).
Since the official season ends on November 30, I’m sure the climate will honor our season deadline and just stop forming Atlantic storms.
Otherwise, I’d suggest we sue each of these violators. That will fix them. (tongue firmly in cheek)
Could you give us a rundown on why this hurricane season has been so active. Is this what we have to look forward to almost every year? I don’t ever remember feeling threatened in October before, and
now there are still storms in November. Is Houston definitely going to be hit again within a couple of years? Is this a permanent change in the weather?
Most grizzled old weather people will argue that nothing has really changed relative to the historical record, that in fact hurricane seasons have been less severe the past 20 years than before, and that the “more storms” narrative is a merely a product contemporary bias for various reasons. (better satellites and technology and politics, primarily)
No, they won’t. Any met who isn’t a looney toons dingbat will tell you that climate change is having a profound and visible effect.
Any “grizzled old weather person” who tells you otherwise should be regarded the same way you’d regard a grizzled old doctor who tells you that bloodletting is the cure for what ails you, and all this “germ theory of disease” nonsense is just a theory.
Climate change is here, and just like with God, your belief in it or lack thereof doesn’t change anything about its effects.
I’ve had enough of two things climate-wise this year:
Tropical weather
Running the A/C in mid-November.