We think the Texas hurricane season is probably over

In brief: In today’s post we share our annual message about the Texas hurricane season likely being over for the rest of the year. This means we are fairly confident that a hurricane is not going to strike Texas for the remainder of 2024. Additionally, we look ahead to a short but sweet front that arrives on Wednesday. Dry air? Is such a thing even possible in Houston?

Tropics season is winding down

I’ll let you in on a little secret. Every September, around this time of year, I’ll write a post that essentially says the Texas hurricane season is over. And every time, my wife hates it. Why? Because there’s a non-zero chance that I am wrong and that, despite the odds, a hurricane will actually strike the Texas coast during the remainder of the season. It would be pretty embarrassing.

But I believe in reporting and writing what I honestly think is true. And I’m here to tell you, both Matt and I think the likelihood of a hurricane striking Texas after today this year is pretty darn low. Historically, the odds are about 1-in-50. Looking at the available data for this year, there are a couple of things to consider. Yes, the Gulf of Mexico is historically warm, and such sea surface temperatures tend to support the idea that we could see tropical systems blow up into hurricanes.

Locations where tropical storms are likely to track during the month of October. (National Hurricane Center)

However, there are solid reasons to believe that we’re done for this year beyond the historical odds. First of all, after soon-to-form Tropical Storm Helene, the Gulf of Mexico looks fairly quiet over the next week, if not longer. That gets us into October. Then there is the overall pattern change to consider. We’ve already had one cool front earlier this month. Another is on the way Wednesday. Quite possibly, we’ll get a third front some time next week. When you start to see this kind of fall-like pattern of regular fronts, it becomes very difficult for a hurricane to blaze a trail westward across the Gulf of Mexico into Texas. Not impossible, mind you, but very unlikely.

None of this means that we won’t see tropical weather in October, or possibly even November. We could see tropical lows bringing heavy rainfall for many weeks to come. But the odds of another hurricane bearing down on our region are pretty darn low at this point. If you want to breathe a little easier, that’s fine with us.

We’ll continue to monitor the tropics, of course, and if there’s anything threatening we’ll definitely call attention to it. The Atlantic hurricane season is very much not over for the rest of the basin, particularly Florida and the Caribbean Islands. Their season lasts into November.

Tuesday

Monday’s high temperature was 95 degrees at Bush Intercontinental Airport, but I think we’re finally done with the mid-90s. Next week could see a few pretty warm days, but the worst of this late summer fling we’ve been experiencing this month should finally be at an end. Highs today will be closer to 90 degrees as we see more clouds, and some elevated rain chances. Expect to see a couple of impulses moving through the area from northwest to southeast, each bringing some scattered showers. Rain chances will be about 40 percent today, and continuing into tonight. Overnight lows will drop into the mid-70s for most locations.

Wednesday

The front will sag into the Houston area throughout the day on Wednesday, likely not reaching areas south of the city until Wednesday night. Therefore, most of the region is likely to reach about 90 degrees, with a mix of sunshine and clouds. As the front gets closer to the coast it will tap into more moisture, so I expect to see a decent amount of showers south of Interstate 10 on Wednesday evening as the front pushes down to the coast. Lows on Wednesday night will drop to about 70 degrees in Houston, with cooler temperatures in outlying areas.

By Thursday morning the cooler air should be noticeable for almost everywhere but the coast. (Weather Bell)

Thursday and Friday

These will be a pair of warm days, with highs generally in the upper 80s, and sunny skies. With dewpoints in the 50s, the air will feel noticeably drier. Lows on Thursday and Friday nights will drop into the 60s away from the coast. This is a weak front, so its effects will be modest and won’t last all that long—nevertheless mornings and evenings will be pleasant so plan to spend a little time outside enjoying the fleetingly drier air.

Saturday and Sunday

Highs will get back to about 90 degrees on Saturday, and into the lower 90s by Sunday, under mostly sunny skies. Humidity will rebound some, but with dewpoints in the 60s it’s not going to be the full-on humidity that Houston is known for in the summer. Rain chances are near zero.

Next week

We’ll be in the low 90s to start next week with plenty of sunshine. Humidity levels should remain marginally lower than ‘normal’ for summer, so that will be nice, and should allow overnight lows to continue dropping to around 70 degrees. There’s some hint of a cool front in about the Wednesday or Thursday time frame, but it’s no sure thing it pushes all the way down to the coast. We shall see.

32 thoughts on “We think the Texas hurricane season is probably over”

  3. Thanks. Numbers always work best with some, so now under 2% chance of any hurricane, and based on past Octobers that 2% will at worst be Cat 1? This year scared me, time to build that cement giant bunker. A

    • This year scared me too. I’ll try a nice, cooling limestone pyramid. The Castillos at both Tulum & C Itza has survived untold hurricanes.

      • Hurricanes mostly wreck roofs and soak 1st floor, they are not that deadly, so we sorta over fear them. We are such wussies. Few people die in hurricanes even when hits city of 6 million, so I guess wood houses are tough enough. Even a house at coast at worst collapses semi-gently and rarely crushes person to death. More people die when million flee and 100 have heart attacks from the stress off move or 1 from traffic accident.

    • It’s been two months, that gas is getting old, might want to run it to clear out the carb and then drain it, blow/clean out the carb, and put it away for the season. I only wanted something to use for my fridge and a few chargers so I got a small duel-fuel that I run on propane, makes maintenance so easy. I highly recommend the dual fuel inverter generator for anyone looking for a small generator.

    • I never drain mine. I use fuel stabilizer and run it once a month for 15 minutes or so to make sure it will start when I need it. I shut it down by switching the fuel off and letting the carb run dry (people have differing opinions on this practice, but it’s worked for me for years). Then I do it again next month. I even have a reminder on my calendar.

      • Do the same thing and wish I’d known this method years ago. Draining it was a pain. 1st weekend of month I start it up, plug a fan or something into it, and let it run 15-20 mins. Good practice to start it to make sure all good
        If it’s drained then it’s another hurdle

  5. Unlike some other readers who will throw a tantrum if your forecast is just a wee bit off, I wouldn’t have you pilloried if your “all clear” message was messed up by Mother Nature.

    You are human, you use the tools you have, and you make the best forecast you can.

    That being said, I’m happy to see our odds sharply decline and that we can focus on fall finally arriving.

  6. I am a regular here because I work outside and need to keep in touch with the weather. I respect the hype free forecasting. I much prefer that if you think Hurricane season is likely over for Texas you come out and say it vs. putting out some blanket statement that it runs all the way through November, yada, yada, yada…

    With that being said I understand where your wife is coming from. Forecasting the weather is predicting the future and sometimes you are going to eat crow. Like this quote from July 1st: “Were not really concerned about hurricane Beryl and Texas”. I cringed when I read it and we all know how that turned out but I appreciated the confidence.

  8. I love the susbtle shade he threw at the wife there 🤣😂 I can say from personal experience even if you are proven right you will still be wrong some how. Lol

  9. “ Hurricane season is probably over” is music to my ears! I wait for this headline every single year. This means that I don’t have to get two howling beagles in my car, drive to the family member who has a generator and have no idea if I’m staying for two days or two weeks. This is the best news!

  10. I know that the numbers are on your side, but my heart is with your wife. I never feel that it is safe to start using up the summer hurricane supplies until Halloween.

    Of course, these days I feel obligated to start putting up winter freeze supplies about that time…

  12. Whatever happened to the “hyperactive” super crazy never before seen hurricane season that everyone was talking about?

    • There have been all kinds of unanticipated inhibiting factors popping up, like backwards-running wind shear higher up over the GOM/BOC/Caribbean, various highs coming down intermittently, copious unusual rainfall in the Sahara, and African waves being released off too far N. Complex interactions like that.

      I know Beryl was a nightmare, but we have been EXTREMELY lucky so far. I’m still shaking my head at it all. I think it’s very difficult to even try to understand exactly how lucky, especially with the SSTs as they are.

  15. The last Hurricane to strike this area was Jerry on Oct 15th 1989. Hurricane Juan did a few loop de loops and gave us some gusty winds and a little bit of weather before beaching itself in LA in October 1985. Hurricane Jeanne gave Galveston a dirty look in Nov 1980 before a cold front swept her offshore and dissipating without a landfall.

    So its been a few minutes since we’ve had a storm that late. So as Mr.Berger has written, we’re off the hook for the rest of this season, the rest of the gulf states?? well you know.

  16. Can you give me your predictions for the tropical storm currently in the Gulf of Mexico. I am vacationing on anna maria island in manatee County

  19. THANK YOU SOOOOOOOOO MUCH! IT IS ALWAYS A RELIEF NOT TO HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT A HURRICANE!

  20. I am personally unsure how much to let my fear build each year .. We can’t really alter at all by any action the 0.1% annual chance of them wrecking the roof or flooding a bit, so worry does no good. And about danger to life, our houses even if roof flies away or walls get tilted from wind do NOT totally collapse and kill us. If millions never evacuated odds of dying still low, like 10 per 1 million…. On trauma, the 3 day buildup and uncertainty let us build up our panic in unhealthy way, whereas say a tornado is over so quick. On money, evacuating at say cost of $3000 maybe be bad investment when maybe only 1 in million risk of death, and $3000 could instead buy generator and ice machine to survive that 1 week without power… As shown, I can’t pin down how much fear and reaction is wise to let selves do .. Humans are complex, self included I guess.

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