We think the Texas hurricane season is probably over

In brief: In today’s post we share our annual message about the Texas hurricane season likely being over for the rest of the year. This means we are fairly confident that a hurricane is not going to strike Texas for the remainder of 2024. Additionally, we look ahead to a short but sweet front that arrives on Wednesday. Dry air? Is such a thing even possible in Houston?

Tropics season is winding down

I’ll let you in on a little secret. Every September, around this time of year, I’ll write a post that essentially says the Texas hurricane season is over. And every time, my wife hates it. Why? Because there’s a non-zero chance that I am wrong and that, despite the odds, a hurricane will actually strike the Texas coast during the remainder of the season. It would be pretty embarrassing.

But I believe in reporting and writing what I honestly think is true. And I’m here to tell you, both Matt and I think the likelihood of a hurricane striking Texas after today this year is pretty darn low. Historically, the odds are about 1-in-50. Looking at the available data for this year, there are a couple of things to consider. Yes, the Gulf of Mexico is historically warm, and such sea surface temperatures tend to support the idea that we could see tropical systems blow up into hurricanes.

However, there are solid reasons to believe that we’re done for this year beyond the historical odds. First of all, after soon-to-form Tropical Storm Helene, the Gulf of Mexico looks fairly quiet over the next week, if not longer. That gets us into October. Then there is the overall pattern change to consider. We’ve already had one cool front earlier this month. Another is on the way Wednesday. Quite possibly, we’ll get a third front some time next week. When you start to see this kind of fall-like pattern of regular fronts, it becomes very difficult for a hurricane to blaze a trail westward across the Gulf of Mexico into Texas. Not impossible, mind you, but very unlikely.

None of this means that we won’t see tropical weather in October, or possibly even November. We could see tropical lows bringing heavy rainfall for many weeks to come. But the odds of another hurricane bearing down on our region are pretty darn low at this point. If you want to breathe a little easier, that’s fine with us.

We’ll continue to monitor the tropics, of course, and if there’s anything threatening we’ll definitely call attention to it. The Atlantic hurricane season is very much not over for the rest of the basin, particularly Florida and the Caribbean Islands. Their season lasts into November.

Tuesday

Monday’s high temperature was 95 degrees at Bush Intercontinental Airport, but I think we’re finally done with the mid-90s. Next week could see a few pretty warm days, but the worst of this late summer fling we’ve been experiencing this month should finally be at an end. Highs today will be closer to 90 degrees as we see more clouds, and some elevated rain chances. Expect to see a couple of impulses moving through the area from northwest to southeast, each bringing some scattered showers. Rain chances will be about 40 percent today, and continuing into tonight. Overnight lows will drop into the mid-70s for most locations.

Wednesday

The front will sag into the Houston area throughout the day on Wednesday, likely not reaching areas south of the city until Wednesday night. Therefore, most of the region is likely to reach about 90 degrees, with a mix of sunshine and clouds. As the front gets closer to the coast it will tap into more moisture, so I expect to see a decent amount of showers south of Interstate 10 on Wednesday evening as the front pushes down to the coast. Lows on Wednesday night will drop to about 70 degrees in Houston, with cooler temperatures in outlying areas.

Thursday and Friday

These will be a pair of warm days, with highs generally in the upper 80s, and sunny skies. With dewpoints in the 50s, the air will feel noticeably drier. Lows on Thursday and Friday nights will drop into the 60s away from the coast. This is a weak front, so its effects will be modest and won’t last all that long—nevertheless mornings and evenings will be pleasant so plan to spend a little time outside enjoying the fleetingly drier air.

Saturday and Sunday

Highs will get back to about 90 degrees on Saturday, and into the lower 90s by Sunday, under mostly sunny skies. Humidity will rebound some, but with dewpoints in the 60s it’s not going to be the full-on humidity that Houston is known for in the summer. Rain chances are near zero.

Next week

We’ll be in the low 90s to start next week with plenty of sunshine. Humidity levels should remain marginally lower than ‘normal’ for summer, so that will be nice, and should allow overnight lows to continue dropping to around 70 degrees. There’s some hint of a cool front in about the Wednesday or Thursday time frame, but it’s no sure thing it pushes all the way down to the coast. We shall see.