What to expect across Texas with the hard freeze; latest on timing and wintry mix in Houston

Good evening. We’re continuing to track the evolving forecast for a hard freeze in Houston, which has implications for the Houston Marathon on Sunday, the MLK Parade on Monday, and a host of other activities in Houston and beyond in the state of Texas. This post will update all of that, and well as provide a more holistic view of impacts to Texas. Be sure to read that section if you’re planning to be driving among the cities of Houston, Austin, Dallas, and Fort Worth on Monday.

How to follow us

Before jumping into the forecast, I want to provide a short summary of how to find and follow Space City Weather as the prospect of a freeze has brought us new readers.

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SOCIALS: In terms of social media, we try to be wherever you are. Houston Chronicle tech columnist Dwight Silverman, who manages the development of our weather app, has expanded his role to help with social media so we can be on more platforms. Accordingly, SCW has now a presence on X (formerly known as Twitter), Facebook, Instagram, Threads, Mastodon and Bluesky. 

The latest forecast

Not a whole lot has changed today, in comparison to what Matt wrote this morning. Today’s blustery winds will settle down this evening, and after a chilly night in the 30s we’ll see a very pleasant Saturday. Look for highs in the mid-60s with plenty of sunshine and light southerly winds. It’s a near ideal winter weekend day. Unfortunately, the pleasant weather will end soon thereafter.

Most of the model guidance is still bringing an Arctic front into Houston by around sunrise, plus or minus a few hours, on Sunday morning. This will be a cold day, likely with high temperatures in the upper 30s or lower 40s for most locations. If you’re running the Houston Marathon, I’ll have a full rundown of what to expect for race weather in Saturday morning’s post.

Most of the metro area should remain just above freezing on Sunday night, or experience a light freeze at most. But we start to have some concerns on Monday, a holiday for many in remembrance of Martin Luther King Jr. It will be a cold day, with highs likely in the upper 30s for most. That’s fine, but there is the threat of some light precipitation during the daytime hours. This is likely to fall as freezing rain north of Houston, perhaps in The Woodlands, or perhaps further north. I still don’t feel confident in saying how much of an impact this is going to have an roadways, especially if the rain stops while temperatures are still above freezing, and the winds help dry roads. But it could be factor Monday evening or Tuesday morning. We’ll see.

Monday night has been trending slightly warmer in some recent model runs, but I still think most of the area is going to fall below 25 degrees, with sub-20 degree temperatures possible for areas west of Houston (i.e. Katy) and north of Houston (i.e. The Woodlands). However this is something we’ll continue to monitor.

Tuesday is going to be sunny and cold, with highs perhaps around freezing, perhaps a degree or two above freezing. This will set the stage for ideal cooling on Tuesday night, with lows likely dropping into the low 20s in the urban core of Houston, with colder conditions for outlying areas. How cold? We’re just going to have to continue to monitor temperature trends. We warm up Wednesday and will be in the clear in regard to freezing temperatures.

Texas temperatures

Let’s step back and take a broader look at the state of Texas, as a whole. To begin with, I went back and pulled the record cold temperatures for Texas during the depth of the 2021 freeze, which occurred in mid-February.

Amarillo	-11 degrees
Austin	8 degrees
Corpus Christi	17 degrees
Dallas	-2 degrees
El Paso	14 degrees
Houston	12 degrees
San Antonio	9 degrees
Waco	-1 degree

Next, let’s look at the current forecast for low temperatures next week. I’m showing the map for Tuesday, since that will be the coldest morning for the vast majority of the state. If you compare the record lows above, most locations will be solidly 5 to 10 degrees warmer than the cold snap.

This is one reason why we have some (not total, to be sure) confidence that the statewide electricity grid will hold up next week. ERCOT, for its part, expects “normal” conditions next week in terms of grid performance.

Sleeting in the Lone Star State

Beyond the cold conditions, the other concern for statewide weather is the potential for wintry precipitation to muck up roadways. Atmospheric conditions do not favor snowfall in Texas—sorry kids. However there is likely to be some overrunning precipitation on Sunday night Monday across the eastern half of the state, meaning that there will be a layer of warmer and wetter air aloft, and this will allow for sleet or freezing rain to fall. Forecasting this kind of precipitation in Texas is always a challenge, so this is something of a hand-waving exercise. But in terms of timing there is a chance of some light, freezing rain from from roughly Austin to College Station to the northern Houston suburbs on Monday. Here is how the GFS model forecasts freezing rain early next week:

Somewhere along the way from Houston to Dallas, this freezing rain it is going to turn to sleet. There is a pretty simple reason for this. Freezing rain is very cold rain that freezes when it hits the ground. Sleet is rain that re-freezes before it reaches the ground, and is sometimes referred to as ice pellets. So as temperatures get colder near the surface, sleet becomes more likely. But it’s difficult to say where this turnover will occur. Accordingly, sleet or freezing rain will be possible on Sunday night and Monday in parts of north and East Texas, including the Dallas-Fort Worth area. The bottom line is that, if your plans call for travel between Houston, Dallas, and Austin on Monday, you should pay close attention to road conditions before setting out.

In summary, a serious cold spell is coming to Texas. The good news is that it will not be nearly as cold as 2021, nor last nearly as long. Our electricity grid and the power plants that supply it have also been winterized since then. There still could be problems, but I don’t expect them to be insane like three years ago.

We’ll be back with a comprehensive post on Saturday morning.