Willa to make for a wet, but not too wet week in Texas

After a fine (so very fine) Sunday of fall-like weather in Houston, our gray, wet weather returns as early as later today. Part of this is due to moisture from Hurricane Willa in the Pacific Ocean, but as for now we aren’t overly concerned about excessive rains from this system on Tuesday and Wednesday in Houston. Finally, we should clear out for a pretty darn nice fall weekend.

Monday

Clouds will return today, as moisture streams in from the southwest. Some scattered showers are possible today, but better rain chances arrive tonight (around 70 percent for coastal areas, and 50 percent inland) along with low pressure along the coast. Most of the region will probably see less the one-half inch of rain during the overnight hours. Highs Monday will probably remain in the upper 60s.

Tuesday and Wednesday

Our mid-week weather will be driven somewhat by Hurricane Willa, which should make landfall on Tuesday along the Western coast of Mexico, north of Puerto Vallarta. This is a powerful hurricane on Monday, with Category 4 winds, but Texas should only see rains and some moderately gusty winds from the storm as it weakens over Mexico and brings moisture into the United States later on Tuesday and Wednesday.

How much moisture? We’ve received several comments from readers about concerns expressed elsewhere about heavy rains in Southeast Texas. Even the most bullish members of the European operational model peak out at about 4 inches of rainfall for Houston, and most of them are in the 1-2 inch range. So that this time we don’t anticipate widespread problems, just fairly grim mid-week weather for Houston. (We have greater concerns about central Texas, where accumulations should be about the same, but where some historic flooding has already occurred this month.)

For Houston, we can’t rule out some flash flooding, but over the next four days, we anticipate that most of our region will pick up between 1 and 4 inches of rainfall. The map below shows NOAA’s best forecast for the period. High temperatures should remain in the mid-60s to 70 degrees for the mid-week period.

Thursday

We do have pretty high confidence that the rains will end as the remnants of Willa exit the region from west to east, and this should occur on Thursday, most likely during the morning hours. Skies should remain mostly cloudy on Thursday, with highs ranging from 65 to 70 degrees.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

The weekend looks quite nice! We should see a northwesterly flow in the wake of Willa, and this will pull drier air into the region. This means sunny skies for the weekend, with highs probably in the mid- or upper-70s. Low temperatures will probably range from the mid-50s for areas well inland, such as Montgomery County, to the mid-60s for the coast. However, dewpoints should remain low through Saturday or Saturday night, at least, making things feel mighty fine outside.

Rain chances will probably stay near zero for at least the start of next week.