Winter storm still on track to arrive in Houston Monday night: Major transportation impacts likely

In brief: A front is pushing into the Houston metro area this morning, and it will begin a week-long period of much colder weather, with hard freezes likely on multiple mornings, and a probable winter storm that will significantly disrupt mobility around the region on Tuesday and possibly Wednesday.

Today will be the final day before freezing temperatures arrive in the Houston metro area. Although winds will shift to come from the northwest, heralding the arrival of the cold front, we’ll see enough sunshine and lagging colder air that highs today will likely reach about 60 degrees. Conditions tonight will turn gustier and the aforementioned colder air arrives. A light freeze is possible across parts of the Houston metro area by Sunday morning.

Houston Marathon

I had the opportunity to speak with Dr. Lars Thestrup on Friday, at the start line of the Houston Marathon, which begins Sunday morning around sunrise. We discussed the cold conditions expected for runners, volunteers, and spectators on Sunday morning. Unfortunately, in addition to temperatures in the low 30s on Sunday morning, there will be wind gusts up to 30 mph.

Although there is nothing inherently unsafe about running in these conditions, they necessitate preparation. For runners, that means a cap, something to cover one’s ears, gloves, and layers. As one runs long distances, the body heats up. It may be tempting to shed a layer of clothing, but Thestrup cautioned that for half marathon runners at 8.5 miles, and full marathon runners at 14 miles, there will be a turn into a more northerly stretch of roadway. This will be a full on headwind, he said, and it will be cold. So if you’re thinking of shedding a layer of clothes, at least wait until you hit that wind, he advised. I don’t think I’ll be shedding anything, at any point.

Sunday night and Monday

Temperatures are likely to drop into the upper 20s in the Houston metro area on Sunday night, with a hard freeze possible for northern and western areas of the region, in places such as Montgomery County. So you should have hard freeze preparations completed by no later than Sunday evening.

However we expect Monday to be mostly precipitation free. Even if there is a light, misty rain temperatures should remain above freezing until Monday evening. (But it’s still going to be very cold, so bundle up for any MLK Day activities). By around midnight, if not before, temperatures will sink toward freezing and heavier precipitation is likely. That’s when things may turn dicey.

Winter storm

Travel is not advised on Tuesday. Like, please don’t if possible. We still don’t know the precise details of what types of precipitation will fall, and this portion of the forecast is still subject to change. Generally, I think snow will be most likely along and north of Interstate 10, with freezing rain and sleet more likely south of Interstate 10.

The best chance of precipitation will come after midnight and before noon on Tuesday, when temperatures area-wide will be a few degrees below freezing. We are talking about the potential for inches of snow, or significant accumulations of ice on roads from freezing rain. Daytime temperatures may briefly rise above freezing on Wednesday afternoon (or for many locations away from the coast, they may not). In short, we expect roads to be a mess on Tuesday, and with freezing temperatures on Tuesday night, probably well into Wednesday morning. I would expect significant impacts to air travel as well during this period.

How cold will it get

It looks as though Wednesday morning will be the coldest of the week. For areas north of Interstate 10, lows could drop into the 17-22 degree range, for the urban core of Houston we probably will see something in the vicinity of 20 degrees, and temperatures a few degrees warmer for coastal counties. Clear skies will allow for radiational cooling. What could really send temperatures diving, however, is snow cover. So I think the risk of colder weather than advertised above is higher for areas along and north of I-10, where snowfall is most likely. Needless to say, these cold temperatures will keep any snow or ice on the roads in place well into Wednesday morning.

When does this end?

I’m hopeful that temperatures will reach above freezing by around noon on Wednesday, but this may take longer for inland areas. Mostly sunny skies should help dry out roadways. So at this point travel around the region may become more feasible on Wednesday afternoon, but that’s not something I would guarantee at this point. A light freeze is possible on Wednesday night, and by Thursday we are well in the mid-40s so there should be fewer concerns. We may see the possibility of some wintry precipitation again Thursday night, but it’s too early to say anything sensible about this.

Preparations

Temperatures for inland areas of Houston will drop below 25 degrees as soon as Monday morning, and much of the region (with the possible exception of the coast) could see a hard freeze on either or both of Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. This is cold enough to threaten exposed pipes, sprinkler systems, and more. Here are some basic preparations to undertake:

• PLANTS. Protect tropical vegetation. Please note, with temperatures dropping this low, some vegetation will probably die regardless.
• PIPES. Protect any exposed outdoor pipes. Pipes in attics and along exterior walls of structures could freeze at these levels.
• SPRINKLERS. Sprinkler systems should be shut off and properly drained.
• ANIMALS. Prepare proper shelter and warmth for animals and livestock and make sure water sources are not frozen.

A message from our sponsor

We’re grateful to Eric and Matt for keeping us informed on the latest wintry weather expected. With cold temperatures predicted, Reliant wants to help Texans feel prepared and informed about their energy usage during extreme weather. These tips can help Space City Weather readers save energy while staying warm, regardless of energy provider:

The colder it is outside, the harder and longer your heater works to maintain the number on the thermostat.

• Check your thermostat. Many Texans have electric heaters, so freezing temperatures could result in increased energy usage and costs. We want you to be comfortable but keep in mind if you have an electric heater, setting your thermostat to around 68 degrees can help you save energy. For every degree above 68, you can typically expect a 3-5% increase in heating costs.
• Let the sun in. If the sun is shining, open blinds and shades during the day and remove any solar screens to naturally warm your home. Close them at night to help block out the chill.

Staying warm while remaining energy efficient is about keeping the heat in just as much as it is about generating it.

• Close heat escape routes. Keep the chimney damper closed when not in use and be mindful of how often you’re opening entry doors and using bathroom ventilation fans, as heat can escape through these outlets.
• Weatherstrip exterior doors and windows. With minimal effort and cost, you can seal out the cold and save up to 10% on total energy costs.

There are often items around your home you can use to stay warm and save money.

• Set your ceiling fan to rotate clockwise. This helps force warm air down into the room to create a more comfortable environment.
• Layer up. Reach for a sweater or blanket before reaching for the thermostat. Weather-appropriate clothes help reduce the demand for heat.
• Safely use space heaters. When you need to heat a small portion of your home for a limited amount of time, a space heater is a cost-efficient option but be sure to turn it off when no one is around. Using a space heater that is thermostat-controlled can prevent wasted energy.

These simple home improvement tasks can keep your heating system from working harder than it needs to and keep you from spending more than you want to on winter electricity bills.

• Protect outside faucets. Shut off exterior faucets and drain water from outdoor pipes to prevent them from bursting.
• Flush the hot water heater tank. Check the temperature and pressure relief valve to ensure it is working properly.

Visit reliant.com/wintertips for more tips on staying warm while managing your energy usage.