In brief: Tropical Storm Isaias has formed in the southern Gulf, and it has a really good chance to become the season’s first hurricane. It is bound for the northern Gulf coast. This should usher in a few days of drier air into Houston this weekend.
A Gulf hurricane?
In the modern record, an era dating back to World War II when there has been aircraft reconnaissance and later continuous satellite coverage, there has never been an Atlantic season without a hurricane. Prior to this there have been two years, 1907 and 1914, in which no hurricanes were recorded. However, that does not definitively mean there were no hurricanes. Before aircraft flew across the Atlantic, our records almost certainly missed hurricanes over the open ocean.
So far this year, with El Niño reaching historic strength, the Atlantic has produced several tropical storms but no systems that have reached hurricane strength. But with the formation of Isaias in the southern Gulf that is likely to change. There is a high likelihood that Isaias will become a hurricane, and possibly a major hurricane over the warm Gulf waters before tracking north toward a landfall somewhere between southeastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle late Friday or early Saturday.
Be sure to check The Eyewall for full and ongoing coverage of Isaias. Along the upper Texas coast we may see tides running a foot or two higher, and some rough seas offshore. But mostly we should see some modestly drier on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.
Wednesday and Thursday
Today and Thursday will be warm (hot?) and sunny days, with high temperatures in the lower 90s for most of the region, away from the coast. Rain chances are essentially zero. Nights will be warm, with lows generally in the low- to mid-70s. On Thursday afternoon we should start to see modestly stronger winds from the northeast (on the backside of Isaias), and this will bring us some moderately drier air for a few days.
Friday and Saturday
These will be mostly sunny days with a slightly cooler northeasterly flow. Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. For areas along and south of I-10 there will be a slight chance of showers on Friday afternoon, but probably only in the 10 to 20 percent range. Nights will be pleasant, with lows around 70 degrees in Houston, and in the 60s for outlying areas.
Sunday and Monday
The second half of the weekend, and Columbus Day, will see continued mostly sunny skies and highs around 90 degrees. Humidity levels will recover a bit, so our nighttime temperatures will rebound into the mid-70s.
Rest of next week
With the return of the onshore flow we could see some decent rain chances as early as Monday or Tuesday of next week, and I think we’ll see a healthy 30 percent chance (or so) on a daily basis on most days. Highs will continue in the vicinity of the upper 80s to lower 90s. I’m still looking at the possibility of a stronger fall front later next week, but this is no sure thing so don’t bring out your box of sweaters just yet.
