You have questions about the Gulf tropical system, and we have (a few) answers

We’re continuing to track development of a tropical system in Caribbean Sea that should move into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. And while we don’t have a lot of additional clarity, we have received a lot of questions today. So although we can’t answer them all, we’re going to do our best.

As of Wednesday afternoon, here’s what we know, and what we don’t, about Invest 99L.

Where is Invest 99L going?

Not much has changed since this morning. We are reasonably confident that the storm will ultimately track toward Texas or Louisiana. Mexico seems less likely because it appears the storm’s center is further north than where forecast models initialized it earlier today. But beyond this there is a wide variance in solutions, and until the system gets more tightly defined, the models are going to struggle with solutions.

European model ensemble forecast released on Wednesday afternoon. (Weathernerds.org)

When will we know more?

We should know more within 24 hours, and probably have a pretty good sense of things by Friday.

When would we start to see effects the system tracks toward the upper Texas coast?

The earliest would probably be Sunday afternoon or evening, and more likely on Monday.

How strong will Invest 99L get

No idea. Anything from a tropical storm to a major hurricane is possible. However, we’re definitely concerned about intensification. The Gulf of Mexico is near its peak heating for the year, and the atmosphere does not appear particularly hostile to tropical systems this weekend. So yeah, a powerful hurricane is a definite possibility.

Be straight with us, is this going to be another Harvey?

Hurricane Harvey made landfall four years ago today, and then its steering currents collapsed. This lack of movement caused heavy rains to remain in place over the upper Texas coast, including Houston, for days. Right now we don’t expect a repeat of this, but there are some scenarios in which this system goes into the central Texas coast and then does slow down somewhat. In this case, Texas would see heavy rainfall, but probably not anything approaching Harvey’s biblical levels. It’s worth emphasizing that is just one of many possibilities we are watching at this point.

GFS ensemble forecast for Wednesday afternoon. (Weaternerds.org)

Stop it, y’all are scaring me.

Yeah, we get it. We don’t like hurricanes either. Matt and I own homes here. Hurricanes can be intimidating things. Please understand there are still a wide range of outcomes for this tropical system, and a majority of them right now involve minor impacts to the greater Houston region.

But here’s the deal. We probably aren’t going to have a real good handle on this system until later Thursday or Friday, and by that time we could only be two or three days from seeing significant impacts. So now is the time to review your hurricane plans. For example, under what circumstances would you evacuate? Where would you go? Do you have a plan to take care of pets? Do you have a hurricane kit if you’re staying home? When the time comes to make a decision, we want you to be ready to make it.

We’ll have a full update Thursday morning.

24 thoughts on “You have questions about the Gulf tropical system, and we have (a few) answers”

  1. I’m heading to Cancun tomorrow. What will be the affects of this storm over the Yucatán until it hits the Gulf?

    • Already? Or are you being facetious? I’m under the impression we don’t quite know where this storm is going..Lucky are those who have out of town family members to stay with, maybe they can mix fun with their anxiety of fleeing from a storm..Out of town expensive week long hotel stays suck as evacuation destinations..

    • Why would you leave Katy? The worst that could happen in Katy is a little rain. I’m in Seabrook. That’s a different story!🤣😂

      • Because Ike ripped my mom’s roof off in Katy. Nine years later, Harvey flooded her out of her home. But yeah, you’d expect Seabrook to be worse. I’m in Galveston. Worse yet!

  3. When is this expected to make landfall in west Houston? Do you think it might hit as far as Austin?

    • They don’t even know what state it’s going to, much less if it’s gonna hop on 290 and go sightseeing.

  4. Eric and Matt – y’all are truly the best! Thank you for your straight-forward analysis and continuous dedication. My deepest appreciation!

  5. I almost always evacuate because I live near the coast..With no family member to go to and stay with, I have to rent a hotel room…As long as I know a couple days before I have to get out of dodge, I won’t panic as much..

  8. I live in west Houston not quiet as far out as Katy. Let me know when I need to trip that “evacuate Katy” notification on the app please. 😉

  9. Aye yi yi. This.. this is not the update I was hoping for. Down in mid-coast (Markham) eight hours from home, and REALLY not prepared for this.

  11. Stop it you’re scaring me?? If this is all it takes to scare someone, the Gulf Coast may not be the best place to call home.

    Thanks for the straight talk, guys. I’m just glad it isn’t coming in here tomorrow. Take care and batten down the hatches!

  12. I was around for Carla (1961) and it most certainly did not shut Houston down for months. What is your source for this (mis) information?

    • I lived in Texas City during Carla and had three feet of water in my house, so why is it always poor Houston??

Comments are closed.