Month: April 2022

So, last Friday I noted how Houston’s pollen season had probably been in the process of peaking, slightly later than usual. The last two days laughed in the face of that comment and produced the highest tree pollen values I can find in the City of Houston’s pollen count archives (2013-2022), with values over 10,000 Wednesday and over 12,000 yesterday. Going back to 2013, there is not a remotely comparable day in Houston in terms of tree pollen, specifically oak pollen. The next closest value I can find is 6,440 on March 21, 2019. Keep in mind that pollen counts are not conducted on weekends and holidays, so there is missing data, but the odds of all the maximum days not showing up over 9 years of data is quite low.

So then, what is it? Why is this year so much worse than any recent year? There are two theories I have, neither of which I can definitively back up. The first is the drought over Texas. Since February 1st, we’ve had 3 days of rainfall over a quarter inch at Hobby Airport. Since 2000, we’ve averaged six of them. More on drought in a second, but in general rain does help wash some of this pollen away. The dryness, combined with the breezy conditions we’ve had, is just a brutal recipe right now. I’m also guessing that a lot of pollen from central Texas has found its way to Houston with those gusty winds too, as drought is much worse there.

My second theory is that the latest freeze in Houston since 1999 may also be playing a role here. We had a mid-March pair of freezing nights, and I’m wondering if that may have delayed the onset of the excessive pollen, meaning the oak pollen season is delayed. Normally we would be declining by now, but we may be at peak instead.

So my theory is that the dry and windy spring are making the season more extreme, and the later than usual freeze has made it peak later. I may be wrong here, and I would love to be corrected by a tree or pollen expert if so. Hopefully by this time next week, we’re discussing more manageable pollen levels.

Dry, dry, dry

Speaking of drought, the new drought monitor map came out yesterday, which shows that drought coverage in the Houston area inched up just a bit, primarily in Galveston, Chambers, and Brazoria Counties. Texas as a whole did just a bit better week over week.

Rainfall over the next two weeks looks to be near average in the Houston area and below average in the rest of Texas. Drought should hold or worsen statewide.

Red flag warnings are posted for today across all of southeast Texas into southern Louisiana. A red flag warning means that there is very high fire danger due to wind and low humidity levels. Dry brush and grass certainly is not helping.

Basically, use common sense today. Outdoor burning is discouraged. Don’t park on dry grass. Don’t discard cigarette butts out the car window. And if you see any sort of grass fire, report it right away before it can cause bigger problems. As of Thursday evening there were 48 active wildfires across Texas, according to the Texas Wildfire Incident Response System.

Weekend forecast

So that was a lengthy intro to today’s post! Why? There’s not much happening outside of that. Look for a sunny Friday, Saturday, and probably Sunday too. Winds will be gusty today with highs well into the 70s. Tomorrow should see lighter winds with morning lows in the 50s and daytime highs in the lower 80s. Sunday will see a shift to onshore, southerly winds and they could be strong at times, gusting up over 25 mph. Highs will be in the low 80s after morning lows in the low 60s. Humidity will start to become noticeable by later Sunday.

Next week

That onshore flow and building humidity will lead to more clouds than sun and perhaps a shower on Monday. We should still manage the low-80s, but morning lows will struggle to get below 70 degrees. Winds will be gusty again Monday also. Tuesday and Wednesday should see a chance of showers and thunderstorms, along with continued breezy conditions and warm, humid temperatures. We may or may not get a cold front through here later Wednesday or early Thursday, as modeling has been bouncing all over the place on that. If that happens, look for cooler, drier air for the end of next week. We’ll update you with the latest on Monday.

Houston is in the midst of what will probably be its last sustained stretch of “chilly” weather this spring, with two more nights dropping into the upper 40s or lower 50s, before a warmup on Saturday. Also, pollen remains a distinct issue. Likely in response to fairly strong winds, Wednesday’s count was the highest of the season so far, particularly for oak trees. We’re nearing the end of tree pollen season, but it certainly is going out with a bang, and there will be more in the air today with gusty winds continuing.

Thursday

Temperatures are generally in the 50s this morning, and with sunny skies we’ll see highs climb into the mid-70s this afternoon. Winds will be noticeable again this afternoon, gusting to 25 mph, and leading to “red flag” conditions across the area, which occur when there is dry air and high winds. Please avoid fire-related activities today, until about 7 pm tonight. Winds will slacken after sunset, and overnight lows should be a few degrees cooler than Wednesday night. This probably will be our coldest night until at least October.

Friday

This will be a day a lot like Thursday, with ample sunshine, highs in the 70s, and a persistent northerly wind. Clear skies and dying winds should help Friday night’s lows once again fall to around 50 degrees in Houston, with cooler conditions for outlying areas.

Saturday

Winds will turn easterly on Saturday, at 10 to 15 mph, and this will help highs nudge into the lower 80s. Skies should still be sunny, however, and the air will remain fairly dry. Lows Saturday night will only drop into the low 60s for most areas.

Sunday

As moisture levels continue to rise, we should see the development of some clouds on Sunday, with highs probably slotting into the low 80s. Overnight temperatures may not drop below 70 degrees in the city on Sunday night.

Next week

The forecast for next week remains somewhat muddled. What I think we can count on is fair amount of clouds, and highs in the 80s, with a decent amount of humidity. There will be some rain chances by Monday and Tuesday, but right now there’s no definitive spark for storms or widespread showers, although that could change. Some kind of front is likely to move through later in the week, but there’s no certainty on how much oomph it will bring in terms of dry air and cooling. So if you like your nights chilly, enjoy the next two.

Good morning. Houston experienced its first 90-degree day of the year on Tuesday. But while it was undoubtedly hot outside, dewpoints were reasonably low—in the mid-60s—so for Houston it was a somewhat dry heat. A front moving through the region today will sweep the heat and moisture away for a bit. But not forever, of course, as we’re now mere weeks away from the onset of summer-like conditions. In today’s post I’ll also take an early look at an Easter forecast.

Wednesday

Temperatures are generally in the low 70s this morning, with some patchy fog. This will lift as temperatures rise. There should be no rain with the front, but the wind shift should be noticeable along with a rapid influx of drier air. The front will will likely reach areas such as Katy and The Woodlands by around 11 am, central Houston around noon, and push off the coast by early afternoon. In the wake of the front, this afternoon, expect temperatures to settle at about 80 degrees with winds gusting to 25 or possibly even 30 mph in some locations. Lows tonight will drop into the mid-50s.

Thursday and Friday

These will be a pair of sunny days, with highs in the upper 70s, and lows of about 50 degrees. The air will also be quite dry, with dewpoints dropping to about 30 degrees. This is probably the driest air we will see until at least October, if I had to guess. Both Thursday and Friday will be breezy, with gusts out of the north up to 25 mph, to support this influx of drier air.

Saturday, Sunday, and early next week

Saturday looks pretty great. Winds will shift to come from the southeast, but they should drop back some to 10 or 15 mph. Highs will reach about 80 degrees beneath mostly sunny skies. As this onshore flow progresses, winds will probably pick up, perhaps gusting to 25 or even higher from the south by Sunday. As a result, Sunday looks to be more humid, with highs around 80 degrees, and the development of some clouds due to increasing moisture levels. Still I don’t anticipate any rainfall.

With more moisture in the atmosphere, we may start to see some scattered showers on Monday or Tuesday of next week. Whether it actually rains, and how much, will depend on the evolution of atmospheric disturbances. We shall see. Highs for most of next week should slot somewhere in the 80s, with the possibility of a weak front arriving on Wednesday to cool things down a little bit.

Easter Sunday

So what does all this mean for April 17, Easter Sunday? Right now there’s no clear signal, but the majority of the model guidance suggests the region will be warming up late next week. My best guess is a high somewhere between 80 and 85 degrees, with partly sunny skies. It’s far too early to say anything definitive about rainfall, but at least there’s no indication right now of particularly heavy rainfall or something crazy like that.

Good morning. Houston is “enjoying” its warmest morning so far of 2022, with lows only falling into the low 70s for much of the region. We’ll have one more warm day before a front arrives on Wednesday to set the stage for a much more seasonal rest of the week, and weekend.

Tuesday

There is some patchy fog across the metro area this morning, but it should lift by mid-morning as temperatures warm. How much sunshine breaks through this afternoon, and how quickly it does, will determine how high our temperatures go. But I feel pretty confident that at least some parts of the metro area will reach 90 degrees for the first time this year, especially areas west of Interstate 45. Winds will generally be light, out of the southwest. Some fog will be possible tonight as temperatures drop to around 70 degrees.

Wednesday

If you’re not quite ready for the heat, relief arrives on Wednesday in the form of a front that likely will reach areas north and west of Houston by late morning, the city itself by around noon, and clear the coast during the afternoon. Northwesterly winds will quickly bring drier and cooler air into the region, with afternoon temperatures around 80 degrees, and overnight lows in the 50s.

Thursday and Friday

The end of the work week should bring a pair of sunny days, with highs somewhere in the upper 70s, and lows dropping to around 50 degrees in Houston, with 40s likely for areas further inland. Both of these days will be fairly breezy, with sustained winds of 10 to 15 mph, and gusts up to 25 mph or so. Even so, these winds mean drier air, with dewpoints dropping to around 30 degrees. That won’t happen too many more times this spring, y’all. If at all.

Saturday and Sunday

After a cold start on Saturday morning, the onshore flow returns this weekend. Both days should see partly to mostly sunny skies, with highs in the low 80s. The southerly flow will be a bit stronger on Sunday, so we’ll likely see winds become a bit more gusty. Lows by Sunday night will only drop into the upper 60s, probably.

Next week

Most of next week looks to be in the 80s, with warmish nights. Some rain chances return by the early part of next week, but they’re nothing to write home about. Another (weak?) front may arrive by Wednesday or Thursday to bring some drier air back into the region. We’ll see.