Month: January 2024

Good morning. After the rains, the thunder and lighting, the pea-sized hail and yes, even a tornado north of Houston, we finally come to some calmer weather. Skies will be sunny today, with no rain or storms in sight. But there will be plenty of wind and cold air. If you don’t like that, well, fine. Houston’s weather will be changing significantly on almost a daily basis for the next week at least. Cold today. Balmy by Thursday. Near freezing by Saturday morning. Warming up again on Sunday. Then very likely freezing by early next week with our coldest weather in more than a year.

Buckle up, y’all, because its rollercoaster time in the Bayou City.

Tuesday

It’s a blustery, cold morning outside. Temperatures are generally in the low 40s across the metro area, and when you layer wind gusts of 25 to 30 mph on top of that, it feels like the 30s outside. Strong northerly winds will persist for much of today. Skies will be sunny, but with the colder flow highs will only reach the mid-50s. Skies will be clear tonight, with lows generally in the 30s, though above freezing for the majority of the metro area. Winds will slacken some overnight, finally.

Wednesday

Pretty quickly, the flow will reverse itself, coming from offshore. This will allow temperatures to warm into the mid-60s, with plenty of sunshine. Clouds will start to build on Wednesday night, as lows drop only into the mid-50s.

Thursday

This will be a fairly warm day, with an ongoing southerly flow. Skies will be mostly cloudy, with highs pushing into the mid-70s. The region’s next front will move into the Houston region some time on Thursday night, and there could be a broken line of showers and thunderstorms accompanying it. Right now things don’t look too serious for Houston, but there is a risk of severe weather to the northwest of the metro area, including northern parts of Montgomery County.

Friday

This should be a sunny day, and will have colder temperatures. Look for highs of around 60 degrees. Friday night will be cold, with lows dropping into the 30s. A light freeze is possible for inland areas on Friday night with clear skies and light winds.

Saturday and Sunday

This will be a sunny and cool day, with highs of around 60 degrees. As the onshore flow returns on Saturday we’ll see overnight temperatures moderate on Saturday night. For my fellow marathon runners, there’s still a bit of uncertainty about Sunday morning. But my best guess for start-line conditions is temperatures in the low- to mid-40s, with mostly clear skies. Throughout the morning temperatures should warm into the 50s and then reach 60 degrees around noon. I’m not worried about any rain, but there should be some wind, perhaps 10 to 15 mph from the south with some higher gusts. This will nudge dewpoints up, but it won’t be anything too uncomfortable. The next front arrives Sunday night.

Next week

Much colder weather is on the way, starting next Monday. There are some key questions such as how cold is it going to get? And is there a chance of snow or sleet on Monday? In terms of temperatures, there’s a solid chance that Houston drops into the mid-20s and sees a hard freeze. I don’t feel overly confident in that, but it’s a distinct possibility. I’ll dig more into that tomorrow, when hopefully there’s some more forecast clarity, and precautions you’ll need to take. We also can’t rule out some freezing precipitation, but overall chances look fairly low for that. In any case, our region’s coldest weather in more than a year is on the way.

Hi everyone. I hope everyone is enjoying this gray and windy day. We’ve seen scattered showers and a few thunderstorms through the morning and early afternoon hours, but nothing too serious.

Our main focus of concern is the development of storms this afternoon along a warm front draped just to the west of Houston. Additional daytime heating, and the approach of a cold front from the northwest, should create a line of storms that will move rapidly from west to east across the area. The National Weather Service has issued a tornado watch for the entire metro area due to the potential for some supercells to develop.

This line of storms should reach areas such as Katy and The Woodlands around 3 to 4 pm CT, pushing into central Houston including downtown and Sugar Land between 4 and 6 pm, and reach the coast shortly after sunset. As the front passes we’re going to see strong, and potentially damaging winds. There is the possibility for a tornado or two to develop, and also perhaps some hail.

I want to be clear: The overall conditions in the atmosphere are not super-supportive for severe weather. But the potential ingredients are there for some severe thunderstorms to come together, albeit briefly, this afternoon. Please be weather-aware if you are out and about. Some additional light to moderate rain will be possible tonight after the front passes. It will be a windy and chilly night, with temperatures quickly dropping into the 40s after midnight.

Good morning. Houston faces the possibility of storms today ahead of, and along with a cold front this afternoon. Our temperatures will plunge on Tuesday after the front, but we’ll warm up quickly and be back in the 70s by Thursday. Then another cold front arrives ahead of the weekend to drive temperatures down again. We may be looking at the region’s first freeze in more than a year by Saturday morning. We’ll see.

A hyperbolic hurricane outlook

Before jumping into Houston’s forecast, I want to say a few words about a seasonal hurricane forecast that has been generating a lot of attention. You may have seen it on a local TV station, social media, or elsewhere, and the gist of it is that the forthcoming Atlantic hurricane season is going to be really busy. The source of this seasonal forecast—which is clearly a case of overhyping things to get attention—is Weather Bell. The not-subtle headline on the forecast is “Hurricane Season from Hell First look.” It was actually issued a month ago (I saw it then and ignored it, FWIW), but it has been gaining traction of late.

Predicting a “season from hell” is quite a statement to make in <checks notes> January. The forecast is not signed, but it reads like it was written by Joe Bastardi, the site’s chief forecaster. I like Joe, and I think he’s a talented forecaster. But he is prone to hyping things up. Case in point is the graphic showing the maximum amount of storms heading into the Gulf of Mexico, Florida, and Southeastern United States. There is just no real way to predict where the favored area of activity will be in a given hurricane season, especially six to nine months in advance. Sure, Joe could be right. But to confidently make such a prediction in January? That’s folly.

The primary basis for this seasonal forecast is that the current El Niño in the Pacific Ocean (which tends to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity) will flip to a La Niña by this summer. For our purposes this really means the months of August, September, and October, when the strongest hurricanes tend to form in the Atlantic. Such a flip is possible, but far from certain. Based on the latest modeling, there’s about a 50 percent chance of La Niña next summer during hurricane season, 40 percent chance of neutral conditions, and 10 percent El Niño. So, hardly a slam dunk.

Here’s what I would take away from all of this. Texas enjoyed an exceedingly quiet hurricane season in 2023, with no real threats to speak of. That is unlikely to be the case again this coming season, when we probably will see more activity in the Gulf of Mexico. But anyone who is selling you on a hurricane season from hell, in January of all months, is probably trying to sell you something else. Caveat emptor. I’d recommend you start paying a little more heed to seasonal forecasts in April and May.

Monday

Some light rain is falling across patches of the metro area this morning, and we’ll see some additional showers and a few thunderstorms later this morning and throughout the day. A line of storms will move through this afternoon, likely reaching the downtown area between 4 to 6 pm and then pushing off the coast shortly thereafter. The key question is whether these storms will become severe. We can be confident there will be strong winds, primarily from the west. Expect gusts up to 35 to 40 mph later today. Although the overall chances are low, we also can’t entirely rule out severe thunderstorms with the potential for hail and possibly a tornado. Unfortunately a lot of this mess will be setting up just ahead of the College Football National Championship Game at NRG Stadium this evening, and during the afternoon commute.

Highs today will reach into the low 70s, with a decent level of humidity, before the front pushes through this afternoon. After that we’ll turn breezy and colder, with temperatures dropping to about 40 degrees on Monday night. It’s going to be blustery outside with the strong winds overnight.

Tuesday

Expect cold and sunny weather, with highs in the low 50s. Winds will still be brisk, out of the north, gusting to 30 or even 35 mph. Lows on Tuesday night should drop into the upper 30s in Houston.

Wednesday

Warmer, as winds turn southerly. Expect highs in the upper 60s with mostly sunny skies. Lows on Wednesday night will be much warmer, dropping only into the 50s.

Thursday

Look for highs returning to the low 70s on Thursday, with partly sunny skies. There’s a slight chance of showers.

Friday

A cold front should arrive some time on Thursday night or Friday, chilling us back down again. Look for highs near 60 degrees. Lows on Friday night should drop into the 30s in Houston. Although there remains a fair amount of uncertainty, some parts of the metro area are likely to see at least a light freeze.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

We can be confident that Saturday will be mostly sunny and cool, with highs likely in the upper 50s. There remains fairly low confidence for Sunday morning, the start of the Houston marathon. While we can be pretty sure there will be no precipitation, I don’t know whether temperatures will start out in the upper 30s or upper 40s. Daytime highs on Sunday are likely to reach around 60 or 65 degrees, with generally light winds. Fortunately dewpoints look to be reasonably low, so at this point I don’t expect humidity to be too much of a factor. But the models are still bouncing all over the place. Yet another front may arrive on Sunday night. Accordingly much of next week looks chilly, with highs perhaps in the 50s and lows in the 30s. Again, lots of uncertainty so we’ll see how it all plays out.

We hope everyone is having a good weekend so far. Congratulations to the Texans on a huge win last night, and we’re looking forward to next weekend’s return to the Playoffs! Today looks great, weather-wise, so whether you’re calmly watching football, taking part in the CFP Championship activities around the area, or anything else, it looks great. Tomorrow is another matter, and that’s why we’re writing a post on Sunday!

Tonight and Monday morning

Expect clouds and moisture to surge into the area tonight. By early Monday morning, we should have areas of light rain, drizzle, or spotty showers across the area. Nothing significant is expected before 10 or 11 AM, but the coverage of showers and periods of light to moderate rain should increase across the area.

Monday afternoon and evening

The good news is that the best parameters for severe weather tomorrow afternoon seem to be north and east of the area, as is often the case this time of year. The bad news is that we’re not in the clear, exactly. With clouds and showers around Monday morning, we’re likely to have a bit of a cap in place in the atmosphere, which tends to limit how severe storms can get. As showers continue Monday afternoon, they may build in intensity a bit. There are some signs that the cap may try to erode a bit, particularly east and perhaps northeast of Houston as we go into the afternoon, however, and that’s why I think we want to continue to watch tomorrow closely.

If a storm can get established in the area and intensify, it could produce strong winds or hail tomorrow afternoon. An isolated tornado, especially near the coast or to the east of Houston is not out of the question either. Eric will have the latest for you on this on Monday morning.

Meanwhile, a second shot of storms, coming in the form of a line of them from Central Texas will approach the area right around 5 to 7 PM, just in time for folks to head to NRG Stadium for the CFP Championship. While we don’t expect significant severe weather with this line of storms, it will be capable of producing lightning, gusty winds, or small hail as it moves through, so from a tailgating point of view, be ready to get inside.

You’ll also notice a big time change in temperature as that line moves through during the evening. We will see temperatures drop from near 70 degrees before the line of storms into the mid-50s shortly after the rain kicks up.

Beyond the severe weather risk, tomorrow looks breezy. Onshore winds of 20 to 30 mph with higher gusts to around 40 mph are possible. While this probably won’t cause major issues, there is the chances that some weaker tree branches could blow down. If you’ve still got holiday decorations up, you’ll want to secure those as well. Winds will ease up a bit in the evening hours, but by the time we get to Tuesday, we’ll see more wind, this time from the other direction (the north), gusting to 35 to 40 mph and stronger over and near the coast. There will be low water levels and rough seas on Tuesday.

Total rainfall will probably average a half-inch to inch for most places in our area. Some may see a bit less (especially down toward Wharton, El Campo, or Victoria), while others may see a bit more, especially east of Houston. No major flooding concerns are expected beyond the usual localized ponding in typical trouble spots.

Expect a roller coaster ride in terms of temperatures this week, and an increasing chance of the first real widespread freeze (a typical freeze, not a massive one) of the season on Saturday morning. Eric will have the latest on all that for you tomorrow.