Good morning. Houston faces the possibility of storms today ahead of, and along with a cold front this afternoon. Our temperatures will plunge on Tuesday after the front, but we’ll warm up quickly and be back in the 70s by Thursday. Then another cold front arrives ahead of the weekend to drive temperatures down again. We may be looking at the region’s first freeze in more than a year by Saturday morning. We’ll see.
A hyperbolic hurricane outlook
Before jumping into Houston’s forecast, I want to say a few words about a seasonal hurricane forecast that has been generating a lot of attention. You may have seen it on a local TV station, social media, or elsewhere, and the gist of it is that the forthcoming Atlantic hurricane season is going to be really busy. The source of this seasonal forecast—which is clearly a case of overhyping things to get attention—is Weather Bell. The not-subtle headline on the forecast is “Hurricane Season from Hell First look.” It was actually issued a month ago (I saw it then and ignored it, FWIW), but it has been gaining traction of late.
Predicting a “season from hell” is quite a statement to make in <checks notes> January. The forecast is not signed, but it reads like it was written by Joe Bastardi, the site’s chief forecaster. I like Joe, and I think he’s a talented forecaster. But he is prone to hyping things up. Case in point is the graphic showing the maximum amount of storms heading into the Gulf of Mexico, Florida, and Southeastern United States. There is just no real way to predict where the favored area of activity will be in a given hurricane season, especially six to nine months in advance. Sure, Joe could be right. But to confidently make such a prediction in January? That’s folly.
The primary basis for this seasonal forecast is that the current El Niño in the Pacific Ocean (which tends to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity) will flip to a La Niña by this summer. For our purposes this really means the months of August, September, and October, when the strongest hurricanes tend to form in the Atlantic. Such a flip is possible, but far from certain. Based on the latest modeling, there’s about a 50 percent chance of La Niña next summer during hurricane season, 40 percent chance of neutral conditions, and 10 percent El Niño. So, hardly a slam dunk.
Here’s what I would take away from all of this. Texas enjoyed an exceedingly quiet hurricane season in 2023, with no real threats to speak of. That is unlikely to be the case again this coming season, when we probably will see more activity in the Gulf of Mexico. But anyone who is selling you on a hurricane season from hell, in January of all months, is probably trying to sell you something else. Caveat emptor. I’d recommend you start paying a little more heed to seasonal forecasts in April and May.
Monday
Some light rain is falling across patches of the metro area this morning, and we’ll see some additional showers and a few thunderstorms later this morning and throughout the day. A line of storms will move through this afternoon, likely reaching the downtown area between 4 to 6 pm and then pushing off the coast shortly thereafter. The key question is whether these storms will become severe. We can be confident there will be strong winds, primarily from the west. Expect gusts up to 35 to 40 mph later today. Although the overall chances are low, we also can’t entirely rule out severe thunderstorms with the potential for hail and possibly a tornado. Unfortunately a lot of this mess will be setting up just ahead of the College Football National Championship Game at NRG Stadium this evening, and during the afternoon commute.
Highs today will reach into the low 70s, with a decent level of humidity, before the front pushes through this afternoon. After that we’ll turn breezy and colder, with temperatures dropping to about 40 degrees on Monday night. It’s going to be blustery outside with the strong winds overnight.
Tuesday
Expect cold and sunny weather, with highs in the low 50s. Winds will still be brisk, out of the north, gusting to 30 or even 35 mph. Lows on Tuesday night should drop into the upper 30s in Houston.
Wednesday
Warmer, as winds turn southerly. Expect highs in the upper 60s with mostly sunny skies. Lows on Wednesday night will be much warmer, dropping only into the 50s.
Thursday
Look for highs returning to the low 70s on Thursday, with partly sunny skies. There’s a slight chance of showers.
Friday
A cold front should arrive some time on Thursday night or Friday, chilling us back down again. Look for highs near 60 degrees. Lows on Friday night should drop into the 30s in Houston. Although there remains a fair amount of uncertainty, some parts of the metro area are likely to see at least a light freeze.
Saturday, Sunday, and beyond
We can be confident that Saturday will be mostly sunny and cool, with highs likely in the upper 50s. There remains fairly low confidence for Sunday morning, the start of the Houston marathon. While we can be pretty sure there will be no precipitation, I don’t know whether temperatures will start out in the upper 30s or upper 40s. Daytime highs on Sunday are likely to reach around 60 or 65 degrees, with generally light winds. Fortunately dewpoints look to be reasonably low, so at this point I don’t expect humidity to be too much of a factor. But the models are still bouncing all over the place. Yet another front may arrive on Sunday night. Accordingly much of next week looks chilly, with highs perhaps in the 50s and lows in the 30s. Again, lots of uncertainty so we’ll see how it all plays out.
Thank you for always giving accurate facts and talking down the panic the rest of the media loves to cause!
Amen!
Wow, I am SO GLAD I read this before I saw the stuff from other sites about this coming summer.
TYSVM Eric & Matt
🌬⚘⚘⚘
Important to understand that operations like WeatherBell have commercial clients that try to plan ahead 6-9 months in advance. Doesn’t excuse the hype, but does explain the forward looking forecast.
Can anyone really trust a guy named Joe Bastardi?
I don’t pay attention to seasonal predictions until Klotzbach’s group at Colorado State releases their Atlantic forecast – usually in the spring. Their forecasts don’t hype, are backed by science, and tend to prove correct more often than not.
Speaking of hype, the Weather Mommies on 13 were already at it last night about today’s forecast. Like we’ve never had a line of thunderstorms move through Houston before. And a 5% chance of a tornado with 25 miles hardly strikes panic in a former mid-westerner.
Also saw this headline on KPRC. Typical of Frank and his team, aka stooges, trying to scare the heck out of people.
I love spacecityweather, but I believe you’re a bit out of step with the latest Hurricane forecasting methods and so you’re making some statements here that are a bit dismissive of where the current cutting edge forecasting methods actually are. I’d really encourage you to research the LRC method. Meteorologists Eric Burris and Jeremy nelson put out a Hurricane season forecast every March that is incredibly accurate and they use data from October/November of the previous year to put it together. The Gulf of Mexico and Florida are going to be active this season.
I know there’s always a temptation to dismiss something if you’re an expert in a field and haven’t heard about it before. All I ask is that you give this a serious, scientific, look before dismissing it. They’re results over the past few years clearly show a statistically significant pattern that goes beyond random chance.
But putting out a Hurricane forecast and labeling it with the word hell in January is not something to question?
You just said there is a forecast that’s released in March that you believe is accurate, so why not question one thats released in January?
I agree that anyone calling any season, “a season from hell”, is being hyper Bolic and I’m glad spacecityweather called him out on it. However, my point is that not every statement in this post is accurate based on my understanding of the available methods. For example: “ I’d recommend you start paying a little more heed to seasonal forecasts in April and May.”
I’m really not trying to throw shade here. My real intention is to raise awareness of newer forecasting methods so they can be adopted and help us all to plan better.
Wait….if their “incredibly accurate” forecast is put out in March using “data from October/November of the previous year”….how can you know on January 8 that the Gulf and Florida are going to be active THIS season.
Because they share the data early that they’re using to build their forecast. So they collected data in October and November and then build on that. Since I know the data that was collected in October and November (because they shared), I have an idea of what Their March forecast will be. Not with exact precision, but I have a good idea.
Mother Nature seems to be unhappy there are no Texas teams in the Playoffs here in Houston, going to be raining and blowing on the tailgate parties right up until game time!
Joe Bastardi is a real meteorologist. He’s not one to just look at computer models like the local mets seem to do. The models are one tool he uses along with his education from Penn State and many years of experience to align weather conditions around the world with analogs from previous years. I’ve only seen him really bust on one hurricane season and that was 2013 when everyone else did too. He called the big freeze in February 2021 and December 2022 well in advance. As noted in an earlier comment Weather Bell makes long range forecasts for paying clients. I don’t think they would stay in business by overhyping their forecasts. So I’ve started shopping for a whole house generator.
Bastardi has actually been saying 2024 hurricane season was going to be quite bad since for much longer than a month. I want to say he’s been saying that since maybe the beginning of the 2023 hurricane season? He tends to look at patterns, studying historical weather maps seems to be his passion and he is able to take that and infer what a current pattern will potentially lead to next. He seems to be fairly accurate on hurricanes (though plenty of accusation of wishcasting, he does seem to bias towards stronger storms), but off on winters more. But of course, this is Bastardi’s niche, super long range forecasting and when it comes to hurricanes, he tries to pick the main development spot. Its not an easy thing to do and SCW I think would argue offers little value, which they might be right.
SCW uses Weather Bell maps/models pretty heavily throughout their existence. I’ve always assumed the graphics must be quite good, and clearly do a good job at conveying the message SCW wish to get across. From SCW, I just wonder if they should mention the business arrangement in such an article like today?
I agree with ASH. I constantly see reference graphics from Weather Bell on this site (SCW), and then one day this site denounces (in a nonchalant way) predictions from Weather Bell? Seems contradictory. Weather predictions are just that – predictions. If I’m ever reincarnated, I want to be a weather person, since you can be rwong 80+% of the time and still keep your job 🙂
I have never found Joe Bastardi to hype things when I have seen him on tv. When others are claiming a storm is the 1st of its kind, he can go back into his and his father’s records and tell you when it occurred before. I love that his father was also a weatherman and his knowledge of past events is amazing.
Nothing worse than cold and rainy weather. Meanwhile while that hurricane forecast seems a bit overhyped, but we are probably due for a storm anyways as we have been dodging them quite often the last few years.
Looks like a hard freeze for Tuesday the 16th morning. I kind of like to get some pre warning of these, at least the modeling, so I can start thinking about what potted plants to save and my water systems. Been spoiled so far this winter….
Joe Badtardi is absolute joke now. Used to be someone to pay attention to, but last 10-15 years, he’s gone bonky. Too many “outlier” thoughts just intended to get folks riled up and get more clicks.
Dang spell check.. Bastardi!!
I’ve watched Joe’s weekend updates at weatherbell for a long time. He is a second generation old school talented meteorologist with a flare for the dramatic. He is also an avid climate change denier. I respect his forecasting and opinion but he has also forecasted 10 of the last one or two “cold winters”. Over the years he has gotten more and more opinionated and political. Recently I started watching Eric Snodgrass’ in depth videos on YouTube
Am SO incredibly grateful for your insight AND lack of hype it’s amazing! Thanks for it all. We in Houston are supremely lucky to have Matt and you in our corner. Thanks!
What is the deal with these horrible freezes? Ever since 2021 every winter has had one hard freeze. The whole rest of the year, including the rest of the winter, is almost always warm, but somehow there always is one freeze to damage my garden! This year’s is coming up around the 17th, it looks like.
No freeze in 2023, we haven’t had a day where the temperature dropped below freezing since December 26, 2022.