It’s August in Houston, so it should be no surprise that Houston’s weather is doing August things. After temperatures hit 99 degrees on Wednesday, we can expect more very warm weather to end the work week. Meanwhile, a year ago today, Harvey’s rainfall threat was becoming very, very real.
Thursday and Friday
The National Weather Service has issued a heat advisory for Thursday, and likely will extend it for Friday, as high temperatures are likely to reach 100 degrees, with a heat index of 105 to 110 degrees. These days will basically be a lot like Wednesday, with mostly sunny skies, hot days, and warm nights with lows in the upper 70s to 80 degrees.
Saturday
Another very warm day, but as high pressure begins to slide away to the northeast, we’ll see some slight rain chances return to the forecast. If you have outdoor plans, I wouldn’t worry too much. I still anticipate mostly sunny skies, and high temperatures in the upper 90s. It’s just that we can’t rule out a few isolated to scattered showers moving through the area during the late morning and afternoon hours.
Sunday and Monday
Still very warm, with temperatures in the mid- to upper-90s, but as high pressure recedes a little more, I anticipate rain chances to nudge up to 20 to 30 percent. Skies should remain at least partly (if not mostly) sunny for both of these days.
Tuesday and beyond
As moisture levels rise, we expect to see more clouds at some point next week, probably beginning around Tuesday. This should both drop our temperatures—perhaps into the low 90s—and increase rain chances to 40 or 50 percent. This would be a pleasant way to end August if it comes to pass.
Harvey review
A year ago this morning, on Wednesday, August 23, Harvey had not yet re-formed into a tropical storm. But it was about to, and would go on to make landfall on Friday. The worst rains would move into Houston on Saturday night. So at this point we were 3.5 days from the beginning of the hurricane’s most disastrous rainfall and flooding in Houston. And it had begun to sink in how bad it would get because there was just no model consensus on where the storm would go, meaning it probably would just move inland and sit there for awhile. This was one of the track model plots we had to look at early Wednesday.
In that morning’s post, we predicted that a large area of Texas would see 15 inches or more of rainfall, with some areas seeing 20 inches. We also began to warn of a “major rainfall event” for the greater Houston area. “Without sounding alarmist, we should say that this is a nearly perfect scenario for continuous heavy rainfall and flooding,” we wrote.
One of the things I liked when reading back over our coverage is that we were pretty accurate in predicting when the worst effects of the storm would reach Houston. Although the hurricane was forecast to make landfall in Texas on Friday, we were pretty clear that the Houston metro area should not expect too much then, and that the heavy rains would come later.
What are your thoughts on how Hawaii is going to fare this week? I kind of like Kauai and would like to see Ke’e again! It’s my happy place. I’d hate to see the communities there suffer.
Praying for all of the people of Hawaii! This could be very devastating for them. I have been following Maui Now on facebook.
I’ve got friends on the Big Island and Kauai. One has already received 12 inches of rain and has some very real concerns about mudslides.
Lane is slow-moving, like Harvey. The next 4 days are going to be rough.
I remember driving around Saturday afternoon and feeling pretty cocky. I was even annoyed that a lot of the stores were closed. Then, the rains came Saturday night and didn’t stop until Tuesday. I have never experienced continuous heavy rainfall like that and hope I never will again.
My nephew lives in Houston, Warren,….his wife and him with a sweet baby girl….a toddler…during the continuous rain. To all you young Houston parents that had toddlers during the historic Houston Harvey Hurricane….God bless you. My nephew and his wife were at their wits ends trying to keep baby girl entertained. My nephew said baby girls was done with being inside….she was done with movies…she was done with games…she was done with books. She just kept pointing outside. I tried remembering anything to help them keep baby girl busy and her mind of not being able to go outside. So, this is just a shout out to all the Houston parents stuck in their homes for days end with very small children. God bless you all.
I went out Saturday morning to see what Friday night’s rain had done. I believe we got 6-8″. I saw that water from the storm sewer would likely back up into the street at some point. It just started to in the Tax Day Flood, and many years ago it did due to a failed pump in our detention pond. I also went and looked at Buffalo Bayou, and saw it was already up to Tax Day levels. I also saw a lot of streets already flooded. After thinking it over for a bit, I finally decided that we should send our kids to my inlaws who live north of Dallas. We met them about halfway. I will never regret that decision. Thankfully, the house escaped flooding by mere inches. So many of their friends flooded out though, including one maybe a dozen houses down the street from us whose house is about 1-2′ lower than most of the rest of the neighborhood is.
You made a wise decision to take your family out of Houston. Where my nephew lived in Conroe the water never reached their home, but it was getting close before it stopped. No doubt that the work done by Space City Weather and other forecasters saved thousands of lives and a lot of misery. I have been so happy to see the human interest stories about all of the people and what they went through a year ago …and how they have rebuilt their homes and their lives.
One year ago today, I began seeing these model outputs and commentary from mets: https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/900396554325860352
“Just-completed GFS model (12Z) shows nothing less than a flooding catastrophe for Texas. 24-48″ of rain in 3 or 4 days.
Please pay attention” – Eric Holthaus
The Euro model was already in concurrence with this scenario. At this point, I became more concerned with a little worry creeping in.
Weather history: Thirteen years ago today, a tropical depression formed in the Atlantic. This depression would go on to become Hurricane Katrina.
Damn, man, I scrolled down without reading, saw the spaghetti chart, and my heart dropped. Then I saw that it was part of the Harvey retrospective and my heart started beating again. Whew 😀
I am appreciating the Harvey review. A year on, it feels good to go back through it day by day, and reflect on how we got through it, and how my neighborhood, Braes Heights, is now rejuvenating around us. A solid lesson in resilience I didn’t know I needed, but with some time passed, it’s good to think back on it.
No matter what your politics are….it is the threat of loss of life to our fellow Americans that always brings us together as a Country. No, we don’t want another Harvey in Texas, but if there is one we will be there for you. So proud of the way everyone helped each other out…all the boat rescues begun as an effort by Houston citizens and others to help each other as much as they possibly could. We still pray for you Houston.
Current outside temperature : 86 F and rising to 100F
Current office temperature: 65 F and falling.
Only in Houston!
Blackhawk just remember. Come December those listings will be reversed.
No, the A/C will still be on. Last November the office was 58F one morning before maintenance turned the A/C off.
Houston weather in a nutshell – hot as hell, or tropical downpour.. yet i continue to live here
A year ago, yesterday, I was driving back from the Hill Country & for some strange reason decided to gas up my truck in Giddings. It didn’t really need gas, but the “thing” in the Gulf was beginning to concern me. The weather people in Austin were not really concerned, just predicting some much needed rain in their area. At the same time, my wife decided to fill up her car in Houston; as she said she had never gassed it up before. We did not flood, but were flooded in; once the water went down we had 2 vehicles with full tanks of gas. I will never forget to fill up again.
I filled up, planning to charge my mobile phone from the car if we lost power.
Wasted a whole tank of gas, because my car flooded.
I may never fill up before a storm again.
We filled up both cars on Friday; they both flooded. $80 down the drain, literally.
Looking at the NHC site there is a tropical wave about to drop into the Atlantic off the coast of Africa. What are your thoughts on it amounting to something? Or is it too early at this point?
Way too early. There’s still been a bunch of Saharan dust out there, and there have been other factors making development in the tropical Atlantic (known as the Main Development Region, or MDR) difficult to impossible. Now, there is an indication that things will be becoming more feasible for development in the near future. And even if this one amounts to something, it’s days from even the Eastern Carribean.
As the Harvey anniversary roles around I remember checking in with your site constantly during the build up and through the storm. You guys really helped provide great info and resources both for me and my extended family watching back home in Ireland while the storm raged. Thanks for the clear concise no hype forecasts and reports that provided solace to me and many others even while your own families and properties were under threat. You’re a class act keep doing what you do. Thank you.