A slow—emphasis on slow—warming trend begins today, lasting through the holiday period

Good morning. Much of Houston has once again sunk into the upper teens this morning, as a hard freeze grips the region. However, this will be the worst of it, with Houston seeing one more night in the 20s heading into Christmas morning. Next week looks considerably warmer.

Christmas Eve

Skies will be mostly sunny today, and if you live south of Interstate 10, highs may eventually climb to 40 degrees or higher. Further inland you’ll probably remain in the upper 30s. A noticeable, and welcome, change today will be much reduced winds out of the north at 5 to 10 mph. Clear skies tonight will allow temperatures to drop into the mid-20s in the city of Houston, with colder conditions further inland. In terms of electricity, the state power grid seems to be holding steady. We expect that to continue.

Low temperature forecast for Christmas morning in Houston. (Weather Bell)

Christmas Day

Don’t tell my niece, but she’s getting a trampoline for Christmas. While it will still be cold on Sunday, with highs in the mid-40s it will certainly feel warmer than recent days. So if you dress warmly, with the sunshine and just a light wind, conditions should be fine for outdoor activities such as trampoline jumping after the early morning chill burns away. Overnight lows on Sunday night will get down to about freezing in Houston, with colder conditions inland, and more moderate ones along the coast.

Monday and Tuesday

A bit of uncertainty remains about whether a reinforcing front pushes into Houston on Monday night, or washes out, but I don’t think it matters in terms of precipitation. Both of these should be mostly sunny days, probably with highs slotting into the 50s. Monday nights lows may drop into the 30s, but Tuesday night will be warmer.


This has the look of a pleasant, partly sunny day with highs in the 70s.

Thursday and Friday

The pattern turns more unsettled by the end of the week as high pressure shifts eastward, and we’re opened up to a warmer, more humid flow from the Gulf of Mexico. This will bring a notable increase in rain chances. Accordingly I expect both of these days to be mostly cloudy, with at least a 50 percent chance of rain, and highs in the 70s.

A very early look at a rain accumulation forecast for now through Friday, Jan. 30. (Weather Bell)

New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day

The forecast is fairly muddled by this point, but my general expectation is that some kind of weak front is going to push into the region on New Year’s Eve, or thereabouts. This probably will bring an end to the rain showers before festivities start later on New Year’s Eve, but at this point out it’s too far away to say that with any confidence whatsoever. The front may sap some of the humidity, as well. My bet for highs on New Year’s Day would be about 70 degrees, but again, it’s a long ways off.

Best wishes for a Merry Christmas and Happy Holiday season

This will be our last post until Tuesday, December 27. It has been a long week due to the cold weather, and with relatively calm conditions ahead we’re going to take a couple of days off to celebrate the holiday weekend. So for Matt, Maria, Lee, Dwight, Hussain and everyone else who contributes here at Space City Weather, let me wish you joy on Christmas Day and during the rest of this holiday season. Your trust is the greatest gift we can receive.

48 thoughts on “A slow—emphasis on <em>slow</em>—warming trend begins today, lasting through the holiday period”

      • Many thanks for your prompt and helpful response.

        Dear Santa, please put Space City Weather at the top of the Nice list.

  1. Merry Christmas, Space City Weather! I hope that you enjoy the next couple of days and thank you so much for all of the amazing and beneficial information you regularly share!

  2. All of you are incredible! Thank you so much for clear, concise weather reporting. Happy holidays to all of you.🎄🎉🎄

  3. Dear Eric and Matt,
    Once again, you have guided us expertly and clearly during this weather challenge. You are our go to guys…first thing every morning. Thank you so much for being here for us and Happy Holidays to you and your families.

  4. SCW is simply THE BEST. Wish other parts of the country had a SCW. Love knowing what’s happening in my hometown where family are. Merry Merry Christmas!

  5. You folks have been troopers throughout this non-Houston weather, and your fans really appreciate it! Take a well earned rest.

  6. Merry Christmas to all of you and thank you for the excellent job you do. We certainly appreciate you. I look forward to your weekday posts and know thst if conditions warrant you are there to keep us alert without all the hype. Thank you so very much.

  7. And a Merry Christmas to you and your associates who do an awesome job reporting the ups/downs of our weather! Happy days ahead to you and your families!

  8. Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays SCW team! Thanks for everything and wishing us all a happy, healthy, relatively un-weather-eventful 2023.

  9. Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays! Thank you all for keeping us updated and safe. Enjoy your time off with your families!

  10. Thank you for all you do to keep us posted on weather conditions. Space City Weather, weather forecasting I can depend on!
    Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!!

  11. Merry Christmas and many thanks for your service to updating us on the weather. I know I certainly appreciate it!

  12. Take a well-deserved break, guys. Thanks for your fact-based guidance through this most recent weather “red alert”.

  13. Merry Christmas & Happy New Year to all of you at SCW who do such a great job keeping us informed about what to expect weatherwise. Enjoy a joyful, peaceful holiday weekend!

  14. Another great job of no-hype reportage. While I’m in not Entergy Texas and not ERCOT Territory,” the supply / demand data links for ERCOT were great and should have calmed-down some folks.

    Merry Christmas / Happy Holidays for all and your families / friends at SCW! Stay well!

  15. Happy Holidays Space City Weather and thank you for all you do to take care of us throughout the year! Enjoy some well deserved time off!


  16. Matt, Eric and Maria,

    Thank you all for your hard work! You are all a God send. Many Blessing and Happy Holidays from my family to yours.


  17. Thanks for the great work. ERCOT held…but it looks now like it was nip and tuck, and shouldn’t be. But, well, here we are.

    Enjoy your trampoline time, Eric, and thanks to the whole SCW team. Enjoy your few days away

  18. First, you are a super uncle, please let me say! 🙂 And please know that SCW makes it to Fort Smith, AR, as we have our son and daughter-in-law who live there in Houston. They kindly tipped me off to your top-notch site! I follow the weather each day to keep “in touch” with them and her family and friends over the miles. We love SCW and thank you both for being such a wonderful resource with such heart and brightness and accuracy of the science–you care about and take care of Houston folks–and it shows! Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to you both and your families–and many blessings! 🙂

  19. Y’all enjoy your time off, and happy holidays and new year to you!! Thank you for all your hard work!

  20. Thank you all for keeping us all up-to-date on the weather conditions. You’re definitely my trusted source. Merry Christmas to you and your families.⛄️⛄️⛄️

  21. Thank you for the continual updates during the freeze, we count on your forecasts!
    We wish you all a wonderful holiday weekend, you deserve it!👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻

  22. Eric I think you meant From instead of For Matt, Maria etc ….thank you for all your hard work, Merry Christmas to you and all of SCW.

  23. “Don’t tell my niece, but she’s getting a trampoline for Christmas”
    Either she doesn’t read yet in which case she is too young for a trampoline or she just doesn’t read her uncle’s weather site.

  24. If this event had been an exact clone of 2021, with all its precip, would the power situation have been any different than it was in 2021? In other words, does it look like ERCOT has improved since 2021?

  25. With respect, the greatest gift anybody can receive is the gift given to all who will trust in the baby, born of a virgin, who would die on cross to reconcile those of us who realize we born sinners, in need of a Saviour. We now before HIM. GOD bless all who work at Space Center Wrather and L pray you all know or will come to know JESUS, the reason for the seasn.

  26. Happy holidays to all at Space City Weather. The service you provide is a gift to all of us in Houston.

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