After 10 days in the icebox, Houston will thaw out like a turkey for Thanksgiving

Ten days ago a cold front blew into Houston, and since that time the region has experienced weather that is typical for the dead of winter, not late fall. The city’s warmest temperature during that timespan has been just 61 degrees, with lows in the 30s and 40s. Houston will face another chilly day or two before we start to warm up in time for Thanksgiving. Unfortunately that comes with a price: We’re increasingly confident of rainfall on the holiday.

Houston’s high and low temperatures this month. The green bar represents the normal range of highs and lows for the time of year. (National Weather Service)


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If you like cold and dreary weather, then you’re having a banner November, and will enjoy more of the same today. Additional rainfall is inbound from the southwest this morning, as an upper level disturbance draws in moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. While this will make for a wet and gray day, I don’t think accumulations will be much over a quarter of an inch for most areas. Given the cold air and leaden skies, some areas may struggle to reach 50 degrees for a high temperature. Lows tonight will drop into the 40s.


High pressure will try to work its way southward on Tuesday, and this may help bring some breaks in the clouds. Some areas north of Interstate 10 might even see partly sunny skies during the afternoon hours. Look for highs of around 60 degrees, or perhaps a touch warmer where the sun breaks through for awhile. Lows Tuesday night will drop to around 50 degrees with cloudy skies.


Winds start to shift to come from the southeast, and this will herald the return of a warmer onshore flow. Look for highs in the mid-60s for much of Houston, with partly sunny skies. Lows on Wednesday night won’t drop too far into the 50s.

Thanksgiving Day

Alas, the forecast for the holiday is still a bit of a turkey, given ongoing uncertainty in the timing of the region’s next cold front. However the broad picture is pretty clear. The holiday should start out fairly warm in the morning, at around 60 degrees. Highs on Thanksgiving Day will push up to around 70 degrees. We are pretty confident that it’s going to rain at most locations in Houston on Thursday. The uncertainty comes in regard to timing and amounts, but generally expect better chances for areas inland of Highway 59/US 69 during the morning hours, and higher chances closer to the coast during the afternoon. As for accumulations, we might see anyhere from a few tenths of an inch to 1 to 2 inches. So yeah, if you’re having a big family gathering on the holiday, have a contingency for rain. Lows Thursday night generally should drop into the 50s.

NOAA rainfall accumulation forecast for Thanksgiving Day. This is very preliminary. (Weather Bell)

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

In contrast to Thanksgiving, the rest of the holiday weekend looks fine and fall-like. Expect partly to mostly sunny skies from Friday through Sunday, with highs starting out in the low 60s on Friday and rising to around 70 by Sunday. Overnight lows should generally be in the 40s or lower 50s. Make your outdoor plans with confidence—and maybe a sweater for the evenings.

19 thoughts on “After 10 days in the icebox, Houston will thaw out like a turkey for Thanksgiving”

  1. After almost 6 months of Houston summer, I’ve enjoyed these ten days in the so-called “ice box”.

  2. Deep cold? That’s a bit dramatic. It was barely even “sweatah weathah”! But, love your reporting, keep up the good work.

    • 30s and low 40s with a wind and high humidity really gets to you if you have to work outside, with your hands. It definitely calls for more than just a sweater, especially with the cutting wind.

  3. My memory may be bad, but at two full months into Autumn, it seems like an unusually small number of leaves have fallen so far this year. Is it just me, or has anyone else noticed this? And there have been very, very few acorns from the oak trees in my neighborhood for the past two or three years. Again, memory may be bad, but that trend seems to have started before the big freeze.

    • It seems like last Fall, most of the leaves did not fall, until maybe late February, 2021. Maybe the new leaves were pushing out the old ones. This scenario may have happened in 2020 too.

    • I remember many years getting some fall color in early to mid December. I am guessing that perhaps the unusually dry spring and summer has caused smaller acorn crops.

    • Just about the only color I see is from the Chinese Tallow trees (their only redeeming quality!). Normally that’s early December I think. The oak trees never give color. And, they lose the majority of their leaves in the spring when new ones come in and press the old ones out.

    • Houston doesn’t have typical weather, ever. There is such a vast variety of trees here and some lose their leaves only after the first frost.

    • I have noticed this as well. The sycamore trees in my town have barely dropped any leaves yet. They usually have dumped tons of leaves by now. Even the birch trees in my backyard have barely dropped any yet. They are changing color though. It is confusing to me because we have had unusually cooler than normal temperatures through most of this fall. I have seen the leaves fall earlier than this during much warmer falls than what we are seeing this year.

  4. Humid, wet and slightly warm on Thanksgiving? Welcome to Houston! LOL gross.

    Thank you for your work!! Have a good holiday. 🙂

  5. Guys, I had no luck again this morning trying to Buy/Donate. Custom Ink put me on a treadmill with Continue button that never allowed me to pay. I can see others were successful; don’t know why I wasn’t. Good luck.

  6. These last 10 days of cooler weather have been so nice. Houston is a swamp for 8 months of the year, so I’m not ready to go back to it.

  7. Thank you Matt and Eric
    May everyone have a safe and wonderful Thanksgiving with family and friends.
    Gobble til you wobble.
    Go USA in the fifa’s world tournament

  8. After what feels like 14 months of summer this year I’m very happy for cold rainy weather right now and hope it never ends! Also happy to see my energy bills crater since the AC isn’t running!

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