Summary: We’ll see mild weather today before a coastal low brings a modest amount of rain on Friday and Friday night. This weekend looks chilly, with Saturday feeling especially brisk as a front blows in. Most of next week looks warm and fairly sunny, and as discussed below this probably heralds the beginning of spring-like weather for our region.
Last of the freezes?
Before jumping in to the forecast, I want to spare a word for the gardeners. Although I don’t anticipate a freeze in Houston on Sunday morning, a few outlying areas in Montgomery County and the other usual suspects may experience a light freeze this weekend. And after that? After that the odds of another freeze this winter are fairly low.
For areas south of Interstate 10, we are already past the “average” date of the region’s last freeze, and we’re fast approaching that date for areas along and north of Interstate 10. For areas further inland, such as Conroe, the typical date of the last freeze comes in late February. Wild things can happen, of course. Houston’s latest ever recorded freeze came on April 10, 1973. But after this weekend the rest of February looks to be fairly warm, and that gets us into March. So I’m reasonably confident we’re done with freezes this year. However, if you want an iron-clad guarantee I cannot give that.
Thursday
We’re starting today with temperatures of about 60 degrees, and we’re going to experience the warmest day of the week as highs nudge into the low- to mid-70s. Skies will be mostly cloudy, and winds light from the southeast, at 5 mph or so. Some very light and misty showers will be possible this evening, but in all likelihood they will hold off until the overnight hours. Lows tonight will only drop into the low 60s.
Friday
As discussed for a few days now, a coastal low pressure system will bring increasing rain chances into the region early on Friday. It still looks as if the bulk of the heavier precipitation will remain offshore, so much of the Houston area is only going to see on-and-off, light-to-moderate rain showers. For areas south of Interstate 10 accumulations are likely to be a few tenths of an inch up to a full inch near the coast. Areas further inland will see less, and some places like The Woodlands may not see much, if any rainfall. When it’s not raining skies will be mostly cloudy, with highs in the 60s. A cold front will move into the Houston region after midnight, likely reaching the coast around sunset, plus or minus an hour or so. This should mostly bring an end to any lingering rain showers.
Saturday
This is going to be a cold and breezy day—one of the region’s last truly winter-like days if that’s your thing. After the front’s passage we’re going to see temperatures in the 50s, and possibly upper 40s, during the daytime. When you add on winds gusting up to 30 mph, it’s going to feel rather chilly outside. Skies may start to clear some during the afternoon or evening hours. Lows on Saturday night will drop into the upper 30s with slackening winds in Houston.
Sunday
This will be a fine, sunny day with high temperatures in the upper 50s. Lows will drop to around 40 degrees on Sunday night.
Next week
Most of next week looks warmer, with partly to mostly sunny skies. Highs on Monday will reach about 70 degrees, but after that we’re going to be in the upper 70s to perhaps 80 degrees for most of the week. Nights will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. A weak front may arrive by next Friday or so to cool us down (slightly) for next weekend. Rain chances appear low for most of the week.
We got freezes this year? 😭
The days of opening a window to let the fresh air in are dwindling and will be gone for the season by March. Spring is on its way, then after spring is……. Oh God have mercy on us.
I live in San Jacinto county, and I wait till after the Houston livestock show and rodeo to plant my garden. It seems like we get frequently get a freeze during that time. Invariably, we warm up in late February, the fruit trees are tricked into blooming, we get a freeze, and I lose my fruit tree crop for the year.
What is up with ERCOT and preps for another long, hot summer?
The Houston area usually sees later winter-like conditions persist, along with intervening warm-ups well into March. After that, it’s somewhat warmer days, cool/cold nights, and some periods of colder weather through April (i.e., spring). Is that expected to be the case, more-or-less, this year?
Based off long term historical data, that will likely be the case this year as well. Most years we see atleast one night in the 30s in March. We can also see a couple of nights in the 40s in early to mid April. We get one last breath of refreshing air in early May with morning low in the 50s. Summer is usually on by mid May. There are exceptions that can occur ever so often. A handful of years it can actually be really warm in March, and we can get strong cold fronts up into early May. March 1907 was the warmest March on record in Houston I believe. It was in the mid to upper 80s on most days, even hitting 90 degrees on the 20th. Lows were mostly in the 60s. In 2013 we had a record lows in the low 40s on May 4th. So, it can be quite a toss up of what happens during the fall, winter, and spring. The jetstream is quite fickle and very unpredictable most of the time.
The robins have returned, sitting on my car’s side mirror to sh/t down the door. A surer sign of spring there is not.
The robins never leave Houston.
YMMV. I’m in Houston and ours do leave and then return.
Speaking of the Rodeo…it sure does seem like the Friday of the trail riders coming into Memorial Park and the Saturday of the Parade itself are often wet, dreary days.