Well, it’s over for the coast. After making landfall early Thursday morning at Cameron, Louisiana, Hurricane Laura has continued to move northward at a fast clip, about 15 mph. At 7 am CT the center was located near Fort Polk, Louisiana, with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph. Sometime later today or this evening Matt will be along to provide a roundup of its many, many damages. Some of the first-light images this morning show about what you would expect.
Ryan St Lake Charles, La #HurricanLaura pic.twitter.com/zSuFzKEPFD
— aimée hebert (@theaimeehebert) August 27, 2020
Now, for a change, we’ll actually do a forecast for Houston rather than focusing exclusively on the tropics. If you’re new to the site, most of the time, we provide a once-a-day forecast on weekday mornings. (Because, hey, sometimes there’s only so much you can write about Houston’s weather when it’s hot, sunny, and humid). As ever, if inclement weather threatens, we’re here 24/7. Since that is no longer the case, we’ll return to our regular programming.
Thursday
As Laura pulls away from the Gulf coast Houston is seeing a dry, northwesterly flow. This has made dewpoints a few degrees lower this morning across the region, at the surface. We’re going to see some clouds today, but despite this, thanks to the drier flow, it’s still going to get plenty hot. Look for low to mid-90s near the coast, and upper 90s inland. For coastal areas, after astronomical high tides occur this morning, we expect any residual high water to recede. Rain chances will remain near zero until late this afternoon or the overnight hours, but even then will remain quite low.
Friday
This day offers the best chance of rain, as Laura pulls away and the onshore flow resumes. The following map of precipitable water shows the center of Laura on Friday shortly afternoon, and the trailing remnants of moisture that may produce some showers and thunderstorms over Houston. I’d rate rain chances at 40 to 50 percent, better to the east than west, and accumulations don’t look overly impressive.
Skies will be partly to mostly sunny, on Friday but the increased moisture should help limit temperatures into the mid-90s.
Saturday and Sunday
Our weekend forecast calls for mostly sunny skies, with highs in the mid-90s. We think there will be enough residual moisture along the coast to generate at least some scattered showers. But I don’t think we’re going to get the kinds of widespread showers the region sort of needs after a mostly quite dry August. (In this sense, while Laura’s more eastward track saved Houston from any significant winds, it also kept a decent shot of rainfall away). In any case, most outdoor activities should be fine, just have a plan to deal with a passing shower.
Next week and beyond
The first week of September looks fairly hot and sunny—standard fare for this part of the year. As for rain, there will be some, but probably not much. Some of the models are starting to flirt with a cool front reaching Houston by around September 10, but there are so many “mirage” fronts at this time of year I’m not buying it for now.
Tropics
Beyond Laura we’re seeing the potential for more activity, but there are no imminent threats to the Gulf or Caribbean so let’s just all breathe a sigh of relief. We’ve got another four or five weeks to get through and then we’re really into fall.
Veg out today, guys!
I second this.
Thank you to Eric, Matt, and the Reliant team for bringing the best in Space City forecasting!
I hope y’all got some sleep!
I second that. Thank you for your diligence.
Thanks very much for getting us through the last few days. Great job!
Appreciate the continued coverage into the aftermath. My understanding is that guidance is for folks to stay away for a week – authorities want a chance to assess and secure before Houston comes barreling with chainsaws and shovels – but it’s good to know what we will be getting into.
These ongoing forecasts are the ones that impress me the most. As the adrenaline wears off, hot, humid, and sunny feels anticlimactic, but I guess there is no final boss and the world goes on.
New to this site, but I’m glad I found it. Thanks for all your hard work.
I just want to let you know how much I appreciate you guys… If I ever want to know what’s happening with the weather I check your post first! I can’t say enough good things about the work you do. Thank you!
Can’t concentrate on anything else in this post once I read “cool front”. Fingers crossed!
Didn’t mean to reply to any specifc post. Sorry.
You two have been invaluable to me, friends, and family, since I first heard of your blog during Harvey. I hope you enjoy a relaxing, peaceful weekend – starting right now!
I echo others to thank you for your expertise, presence, and generosity of time. You are a Houston treasure and I hope you know how much you add to our community and lives!
Thank you!
Get some MUCH DESERVED rest. Thankful for you guys.
Thanks Eric and Matt. I no longer watch local weather — especially during these storms — but rely on your forecasts (good or bad). I feel for the folks in Louisiana, I’ve spent quite a lot of time there over the years. It’s always a bad feeling when a hurricane is approaching and the first thought is “go somewhere else” because that means “somewhere else” has to deal with the aftermath. I’m going to provide what support I can to helping agencies this week.
Thank you thank you for great reporting. We rely on you for accurate weather information!
Sincere thanks to both of you for being the voice of reason in the midst of all the hype. We found you during Harvey and you’re top of our list for sensible, measured forecasts – especially during inclement weather. Please get done rest now that the worst has passed! You both deserve it.
The storm surge forecasts from NHC were incredibly scary, “unsurvivable”.What were the actual storm surge measurements? I would love to see a future post covering that. Thank you for your continued, level headed, science based advise on weather!
I believe that was the power of prayer, but I would like a run down on this, to
Is there a reason scientists have not discovered a way to defuse a potential hurricane while still manageable? Thank you.
Thank you both for your outstanding reporting, we really appreciate all you do. Enjoy some rest and an adult beverage or two!
On another note, hats off to the forecasters at the NHC. They had the track pegged for this, with very little variation, starting this past weekend, even when the vaunted Euro models had it coming right toward Houston/Galveston.
According to Frank Billingsley, 11% of the Euro model is based on data from aircraft obtained during flight. Since the beginning of the pandemic, commercial flights have gone done by 75%. Therefore, the Euro model is missing a large bit of data with which it makes its predictions.
The mainstream media really latched onto the “unsurvivable” storm surge mentioned by the NWS to stress the point to evacuate. If the surge happened as forecast, and folks took heed and left, bad news but all in all a best outcome. If the unsurvivable surge did not happen are we setting up for a future disaster because folks are not going to believe the warnings?
Bravo…good to see you guys recognize how much your “hand holding” means to soooo many…Eric, your heartfelt note late yesterday was exceptional!
Will the passage of Marco and Laura diminish Gulf surface water temperatures?
Would love to know how many new fans you have added over the last 72 hours! You guys are the best!
Any advice on whether we could still see a major hurricane this season?
So thankful for your honest, no nonsense reporting. I always look to your report during these hurricane updates. I’ve shared your site with many friends. Just listen to the local news stations & you’d think it was going to be the rapture each time. Lol
I just discovered your site…so happy I did! Ya’ll deserve so much love and appreciation. I live in Houston, but have family in Jefferson County so I like to have the whole picture. Your updates provided so much comfort and information that I couldn’t get anywhere else. Thank you!
Thank you both for your dedication in helping us through a very uncertain and stressful time. Keep up the good work and God bless you!
A thorough vat of gratitude heaped upon you both. Your expertise, professionalism yet keeping it real and relatable, all of the above. And all this on top of your day jobs! Thank you Eric and Matt, and thank you to Reliant for knowing a good thing when they see it and supporting you guys. Truly a special thing we’ve got here in Houston. We’re spoiled for sure!
Once again, thank you!
Yes, thank you both!
One question…do you still hold to your past comments about September 24 being the statistical end of hurricane chances for us? Seeing the yellow blob on the NHC page is not fun.
You both are awesome!
Thanks for all the frequent updates.
Will the name Laura be retired? What are the criteria for that?
Thank you for all the work you guys have done with the forecast. Well done gentlemen.
You guys, I take all of the thoughts above and add my thank you as well. You are so very appreciated!
Thanks for all the great research and Information posts guys! Enjoy some good sleep this weekend.
Always looking to you for our Sunday weather at Bay Area Farmers Market, and am ever so grateful for you! We can handle passing downpours Sunday, but how about wind (wind is incredibly tough on a farmers market)? Is there any reason to expect above 10 mph winds Sunday? Thank you!
As always, we look to y’all to give us the best and most accurate reports in the Houston area, as well a no hype explanation of what to expect. Started following y’all through Harvey due to that kind of care and diligence and LOVE that your reports and the ones I see circulating most on my friends accounts during heightened weather events. Thanks so much!
GFS and ECMWF seem to be picking up a cyclone approaching the Caribbean, although that will hopefully strengthen before it becomes a threat to land. There is also something stirring in the Bay of Campeche.